EU Banks Rating Assignments: Is There Heterogeneity between New and Old Member Countries?

We model EU countries' bank ratings using financial variables and allowing for intercept and slope heterogeneity. Our aim is to assess whether “old” and “new” EU countries are rated differently and to determine whether “new” ones are assigned lower ratings, ceteris paribus, than “old” ones. We find that country‐specific factors (in the form of heterogeneous intercepts) are a crucial determinant of ratings. Whilst “new” EU countries typically have lower ratings than “old” ones, after controlling for financial variables we also discover that all countries have significantly different intercepts, confirming our prior belief. This intercept heterogeneity suggests that each country's rating is assigned uniquely, after controlling for differences in financial factors, which may reflect differences in country risk and the legal and regulatory framework that banks face (such as foreclosure laws). In addition, we find that ratings may respond differently to the liquidity and operating expenses to operating income variables across countries. Typically ratings are more responsive to the former and less sensitive to the latter for “new” EU countries compared with “old” EU countries.     

SOCIAL NORMS,LOCAL INTERACTION,AND NEIGHBORHOOD PLANNING*

This article examines optimal social linkage when each individual's repeated interaction with each of his neighbors creates spillovers. Each individual's discount factor is randomly determined. A planner chooses a local interaction network or neighborhood design before the discount factors are realized. Each individual then plays a repeated Prisoner's Dilemma game with his neighbors. A local trigger strategy equilibrium (LTSE) describes an equilibrium in which each individual conditions his cooperation on the cooperation of at least one “acceptable” group of neighbors. Our main results demonstrate a basic trade‐off in the design problem between suboptimal punishment and social conflict. Potentially suboptimal punishment arises in designs with local interactions since in this case monitoring is imperfect. Owing to the heterogeneity of discount factors, however, greater social conflict may arise in more connected networks. When individuals' discount factors are known to the planner, the optimal design exhibits a cooperative “core” and an uncooperative “fringe.”“Uncooperative” (impatient) types are connected to cooperative ones who tolerate their free riding so that social conflict is kept to a minimum. By contrast, when the planner knows only the ex ante distribution over individual discount factors, then in some cases the optimal design partitions individuals into maximally connected cliques (e.g., cul‐de‐sacs), whereas in other cases incomplete graphs with small overlap (e.g., grids) are possible.     

Under pressure: Evolution of the social economy institutional recognition in the EU

Social Economy encompasses a wide array of private organizations that can be situated along a continuum that ranges from civil society to the business sector, e.g., associations, foundations, cooperatives, social enterprises, social business initiatives. The social sphere populated by SE/TS organizations operates in complex and multi‐layer environments and is particularly sensitive to institutional configuration. This paper deals with the institutional policy and attitude of the EU Commission towards SE/TS organizations in the field of welfare policy. We start with an illustration of the key features of the Social Investment policy framework, that stresses the adoption of an ‘active policy’ orientation and the overriding of more traditional ‘compensatory policies’. Secondly, we analyze the regulatory eco‐system of the EU towards Social Economy in the last three decades. Thirdly, we present the main results of an European research project aimed at analyzing the ‘level of recognition’ and ‘institutionalization’ of the SE sector in ten European Countries. Then, we provide some data about the consistency of the Social Economy in EU, based on several research reports promoted  by European Institutions (EESC). Finally, the main results of the analysis are summarized in order to assess the current conjuncture of the Social Economy sector in Europe.     

Conditions for Sustainable Optimal Economic Development

This paper shows that, for dynamic optimizing economies with different types of natural resource, environmental, and human‐made capital stocks, a necessary and sufficient condition for permanently sustaining an optimal utility/consumption level is the stationarity of the current‐value Hamiltonian. For economies whose development is not exogenously and directly affected by time (i.e., time‐autonomous economies), this stationarity condition generalizes Dixit et al.’s (1980 ) “zero‐net‐aggregate‐investment” rule of sustain‐ability, which in turn generalizes Solow‐Hartwick’s sustainability rule. For non‐autonomous economies, the stationarity condition is not generally fulfilled, and the current‐value Hamiltonian under (over) estimates the true welfare level by an amount equal to the discounted value of the net “pure time effect.” For the non‐autonomous case of a time‐dependent utility discount rate, a general condition on the discount rate function (of which the hyperbolic discount rate function is a special case) upholds the results obtained for autonomous cases. The paper concludes with a discussion of policies that promote both optimality and sustainability objectives.     

Towards a European Social Union: Impacts on Labor Markets in the Acceding Countries

A new social dimension of the EU has been established in the last decade. This paper discusses the effect of an adoption of this EU social law on future labor market performance in the CEECs. For this purpose, we draw an analogy between the policies vis-a-vis the CEECs and those regarding East Germany and Southern Italy. We conclude that the adoption of inefficient EU social and labor policy regulations entails risks for CEEC employment similar to those materialized in the latter regions. This view is substantiated by a public choice analysis of why the old EU members will want to impose the Social Charter even though it will harm the new members.     

A Generalized Exactly Additive Decomposition of Aggregate Labor Productivity Growth

Aggregate labor productivity (ALP) growth—i.e., growth of output per unit of labor—may be decomposed into additive contributions due to within‐sector productivity growth effect, dynamic structural reallocation effect (Baumol effect), and static structural reallocation effect (Denison effect) of cross‐sectional components (e.g., industry or region) of output and labor. This paper implements ALP growth decomposition that is “generalized” to output in constant prices and to output in chained prices (i.e., chained volume measure or CVM) and “exactly additive” since with either output the sum of contributions exactly equals “actual” ALP growth. It compares this “generalized exactly additive” decomposition (GEAD) to the “traditional” (TRAD) ALP growth decomposition devised for output in constant prices. The results show GEAD and TRAD are exactly additive when output is in constant prices, but GEAD is exactly additive while TRAD is not when output is in CVM. Also, GEAD components are empirically purer than or analytically superior to those from TRAD. Moreover, considering that contributions to ALP growth can be classified by industry or region each year over many years, GEAD provides a more well‐grounded picture over time of industrial or regional transformation than TRAD. Therefore, GEAD should replace TRAD in practice.     

MEASURING SUB‐NATIONAL INCOME POVERTY BY USING A SMALL AREA MULTIVARIATE APPROACH

The present paper proposes a statistical strategy for the analysis of regional disparities in income poverty. For the EU countries, information on individual income has been collected until now by the European Community Household Panel survey, which only yields reliable estimates for very large regions within countries. In order to obtain reliable estimates for some of the poverty indicators suggested by the Laeken Council at the sub‐national level, we suggest the adoption of a multivariate small area estimation approach which enables us to reduce estimate variability. We concentrate on Italy, the country with the lowest degree of regional cohesion within the EU. Results show that disparity cannot be reduced to the so‐called “North–South divide,” with the “poor” South separated from the “affluent” North, as both these macro‐regions display large internal differences in terms of both poverty level and income inequality. The strategy we propose could also be adopted in order to measure poverty in other European regions, using information produced by the new EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions, which is replacing the European Community Household Panel.     

Social investment: A guiding principle for welfare state adjustment after the crisis?

The European welfare states have undergone a significant amount of change over the last decades. In light of the unresolved tensions resulting from changed macroeconomic conditions, the emergence of new social risks as well as from the consequences of the Great Recession and its aftershocks, more adjustments are needed. The present paper investigates the current outlook on welfare state change, retracing its socio-economic drivers and the salient steps that were undertaken to reform welfare states in the last decades. Since the outbreak of the crisis, calls to adopt a social investment perspective on welfare state reform intensified, both in the academic field and at the EU policy-level. Ample space is therefore devoted to the discussion of this perspective, its conceptual basis, and implementation. For a number of reasons, social investment seems the most appropriate approach to frame the objectives that contemporary welfare states have to pursue and to devise a consistent set of policies. The objections which have been moved against the social investment perspective have however to be taken seriously. Moreover, current developments indicate diverging trends across EU Member States, with lack of progress in those countries which are most in need of a social investment strategy. To become an effective policy paradigm, the social investment perspective thus needs a stronger anchoring within the EU architecture and more co-ordinated commitment from Member States.     

The Political Economy of the "Minimum-Wage Institution" in an Internationally Integrated Market

The paper explores the political economy of the “minimum‐wage institution (MWI)” in an internationally integrated product market. The authors consider a two‐sector Economic Union (EU) with a perfectly competitive agricultural sector and a unionized oligopolistic manufacturing sector in which there exist productivity asymmetries across firms. It is shown that efficient firms have an incentive to strategically opt for intercountry minimum‐wage agreements high enough to raise their inefficient rivals’ costs and thus gain business in equilibrium. The unions of workers in all countries also find these agreements in their best interest. As a consequence, the MWI may emerge as the equilibrium institutional resolution of alternative political processes (i.e., an EU‐wide referendum or special‐interest politics), despite its negative effect on aggregate employment.     

Cost-effectiveness Analysis of Demand- and Supply-side Education Interventions: the Case of PROGRESA in Mexico

The paper is concerned with the issue of the most cost‐effective way of improving access to education for poor households in developing countries. The authors consider two alternatives: extensive expansion of the school system (i.e., bringing education to the poor), and subsidizing investment in education by the poor (i.e., bringing the poor to the education system). To this end, the authors evaluate PROGRESA, a large poverty‐alleviation program recently introduced in Mexico, which subsidizes education. Using double‐difference regression estimators on data collected before and after the program for randomly selected “control” and “treatment” households, the relative impacts of the demand‐ and supply‐side program components are estimated. Combining these estimates with cost information, it is found that the demand‐side subsidies are substantially more cost‐effective than supply‐side expansions.     

The effects of company taxation in EU accession countries on German FDI1

This article investigates how company taxation affects German foreign direct investment (FDI) in European Union (EU) accession countries. In 2004 and 2007, 10 former socialist eastern European countries joined the EU. Although the EU integration is associated with increasingly favourable investment conditions, accession countries also pursue active strategies to attract foreign firms. In particular, taxes on corporate income have been significantly reduced during the last decade. We analyse whether corporate tax policies of eastern European countries affect three aspects of multinational activity: the location decision, the investment decision and the capital structure choice. The results suggest that local taxes are negatively related to both location and investment decisions. The analysis of the capital structure confirms that higher local taxes imply higher debt‐to‐capital ratios.     

DECREASING CAMPUS SMOKING WITH PUNISHMENTS AND SOCIAL PRESSURES

This paper reports the effectiveness of a Midwest state university's “100% tobacco‐free” policy. The policy used social pressures and punishments to incentivize tobacco users to no longer consume tobacco on campus. The policy had three distinct periods (Pre‐Promotion, Post‐Promotion, and Post‐Policy). Social pressures and punishments were introduced during the Post‐Promotion and Post‐Policy periods, respectively. Changes in cigarette consumption were inferred by counting the number of cigarette butts found at various locations on campus. A statistically significant decrease in the number of cigarette butts was observed during the Post‐Promotion period. After the initial drop, tobacco use remained constant for the remainder of the period. An additional decrease was observed once punishments were introduced in the third period. However, the number of cigarette butts observed on campus remained significantly above zero. Further research is needed to understand how smokers substitute across time, location, and tobacco products after the implementation of similar policies. (JEL I11, C99, I12)     

TESTING THE BAUMOL–NORDHAUS MODEL WITH EU KLEMS DATA

Baumol's (1967 ) seminal model of structural change predicts that large service industries financed mainly through taxes and social contributions—like health care and education, for instance—will acquire ever‐larger shares of total expenditures and that, concomitantly, overall productivity growth will decline. Applying a new testing strategy for Baumol's model, Nordhaus (2008 ) finds strong evidence in favor of the “cost and growth diseases” in U.S. GDP‐by‐industry data (published by the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic Analysis). The aim of the present paper is twofold. The first is to check whether Nordhaus's results can be reproduced using U.S. industry data from the EU KLEMS database. Second, Nordhaus's testing methodology is applied to European Union data from the same database. The results suggest that—although there are differences vis‐à‐vis the U.S.—the EU also shows symptoms of “Baumol's diseases.”     

Intergenerational Transfer of Human Capital and Optimal Education Policy

We study the design of education policies (subsidies and public education) when parents' investment in education is motivated by warm‐glow altruism and determines the probability that a child has a high ability. The optimal subsidy is not necessarily positive. It is determined by two conflicting terms: a Pigouvian term (warm‐glow altruists do not properly account for the impact of education on future generations) and a “paternalistic” effect (the warm‐glow term may not be fully included in social welfare). Finally, total crowding out of private expenditure (for one of the types) by public education may be desirable.     

The Reverse Direct Investment: The Case of the Korean Consumer Electronics Industry

This paper discusses the nature of foreign direct investments by firms from developing countries in industrialized country markets, which is coined as “reverse direct investment.” On the basis of the experiences of the Korean consumer electronics firms operating in the U.S., this paper identifies the nature of the investment as “defensive” and “premature“ strategic moves of firms in their internationalization process. There investment are made not to exploit firms' monopolistic firm-specific advantages, but to protect their export markets at an earlier time than economic forces might have led them to do. However, in the process, firms try to convert their home country-specific advantage (e.g. low labor cost) into firm-specific ones as much as possible. [440]     

THE EFFECTS OF ENDOGENOUS MARKET ENTRY OF PHYSICIAN‐OWNED HOSPITALS ON MEDICARE EXPENDITURES: AN INSTRUMENTAL VARIABLES APPROACH

This study examines the effect of physician‐owned hospitals (POHs) on Medicare per enrollee expenditures at the metropolitan area (MSA) level nationwide, spanning the 8‐year time period from 1998 to 2005. The study uses fixed effects panel data estimation with instrumental variables to account for the bias introduced by endogenous POH market entry (i.e., POHs may be more likely to open in high‐growth/high‐demand markets with high levels of Medicare per enrollee expenditures). After controlling for other variables that are likely to affect expenditures (especially the age and sex distribution of the MSA), we find no association between POH presence and Medicare expenditures per enrollee at the MSA level. The results are robust to changes in model specification, estimation technique, and definition of geographic market. These findings suggest that the “demand inducement” aspects of physician ownership of acute care hospitals (if any) have no meaningful impact on market‐level Medicare expenditures per enrollee. Current policies based on an assumption that POHs are associated with significant increases in total expenditures may need to be reassessed. (JEL I11, L10, C33)     

European influence and economic development

The development accounting literature identifies political institutions as fundamental development determinants. Forms of government or executive constraints are thought to shape economic institutions (e.g., property rights) that provide necessary incentives for economic growth. One strand of the literature suggests that European influence is a crucial economic development determinant, presumably through the adoption of European institutions. But how exactly did European influence in the distant past induce positive economic outcomes today? Previous approaches rely on “language,” “settler mortality,” “legal origins” or the “number of European settlers” as indirect proxies of European influence. We propose a direct and quantifiable mechanism: the adoption of European constitutional features. We construct a dataset of all constitutional dimensions from 1800–2008 for all countries and find that nations experience growth accelerations after adopting features of European constitutions. The growth effects are influenced (negatively) by periods of political turmoil, but they are independent of colonial backgrounds. These results show how European influence may have fostered growth, and they imply that countries were able to overcome adverse initial conditions over the last 200 years by adopting European constitutional features. Our constitutional dataset is sufficiently detailed to identify the specific dimensions of European constitutions that matter most for development: legislative rules and specific provisions that curtail executive powers.     

Economic resilience in times of public health shock: The case of the US states

Does adopting social distancing policies amid a health crisis, e.g., COVID-19, hurt economies? Using a machine learning approach at the intermediate stage, we applied a generalized synthetic control method to answer this question. We utilize state policy response differences. Cross-validation, a machine learning approach, is used to produce the “counterfactual” for adopting states—how they “would have behaved” without lockdown orders. We categorize states with social distancing as the treatment group and those without as the control. We employ the state time-period for fixed effects, adjusting for selection bias and endogeneity. We find significant and intuitively explicable impacts on some states, such as West Virginia, but none at the aggregate level, suggesting that social distancing may not affect the entire economy. Our work implies a resilience index utilizing the magnitude and significance of the social distancing measures to rank the states' resilience. These findings help governments and businesses better prepare for shocks.     

Measuring the Consistency of Cross‐Sectional and Longitudinal Income Information in EU‐SILC

The EU‐wide survey “Statistics on Income and Living Conditions” (EU‐SILC) is extremely important for international social science research and policy advice. It is therefore crucial to ensure that the data are of the highest quality and international comparability. This paper is aimed at identifying unexpected developments in income levels, income mobility, and inequality in the EU‐SILC data between 2005 and 2009. We examine the consistency of EU‐SILC by comparing cross‐sectional results with findings based on two‐year longitudinal samples. Although the data represent similar populations, for several countries the results of this comparison differ widely. One important outcome is the high degree of variability over time in countries that obtain their income information from register data. This suggests methodological challenges in the clear designation of new subsample members, in the reweighting of the data, in imputation of missing values, and in other areas.     

Social evaluations when populations differ in size

Assessments of “social welfare” do not usually take into account population sizes. This can lead to serious social evaluation flaws, particularly in contexts in which policies can affect demographic growth. We develop in this paper a little‐known though ethically attractive approach to correcting the flaws of traditional social evaluations, an approach that is sensitive to population sizes and that is based on critical‐level generalized utilitarianism (CLGU). Traditional CLGU is extended by considering arbitrary orders of welfare dominance and ranges of “poverty lines,” as well as values for the “critical level” of how much a life must be minimally worth to contribute to social welfare. We apply these social evaluation methods to rank Canada across 1976, 1986, 1996 and 2006 and to estimate normatively and statistically robust lower and upper bounds of critical levels over which these rankings can be made.