Wood biomass use for energy in Europe under different assumptions of coal,gas and CO2 emission prices and market conditions

This study examines the effects of different coal, natural gas and carbon emission prices and market situations on the use of wood for electricity and heat production in the European Union. The analysis is carried out using the global forest sector model EFI-GTM expanded to cover electricity and heat production from wood, coal, natural gas, wind and solar energy. Analysis shows that with low coal and gas prices, use of wood for energy will be limited to low cost logging residues. With high coal, and especially natural gas prices, industrial wood also comes to be used for energy. At a carbon price of 100 €/tCO₂, some 32 Mm³ of industrial wood, in addition to 224 Mm³ of logging residues, are projected to be used for electricity and heat in the EU region (including Norway and Switzerland) in 2030. The relatively low quantity of industrial wood used by the energy sector despite the collapse of the use of coal is explained by the fact that under high CO₂ prices, other energy forms like natural gas, solar and wind energy become more and more competitive. However, the amount of industrial wood used for energy may substantially increase with subsidies for using wood for electricity and heat, even with relatively low carbon prices. With a high coal and gas price and a carbon price of 100 €/t, a subsidy of 30 €/MWh to the wood based and coal with wood co-firing electricity production will have a significant impact on the European wood based sector. Depending on the development of the market demand for forest industry products, such a subsidy may cause a 10–12.5% reduction in forest products production, a 6–9% increase in harvest level, about 30–60% increase in the pulpwood prices, and a 6–9 fold increase of wood imports in the EU, compared to the respective case without a subsidy in 2030.     

Forest carbon benefits,costs and leakage effects of carbon reserve scenarios in the United States

This study evaluated the potential effectiveness of future carbon reserve scenarios, where U.S. forest landowners would hypothetically be paid to sequester carbon on their timberland and forego timber harvests for 100 years. Scenarios featured direct payments to landowners of $0 (baseline), $5, $10, or $15 per metric ton of additional forest carbon sequestered on the set aside lands, with maximum annual expenditures of $3 billion. Results indicated that from 1513 to 6837 Tg (Teragrams) of additional carbon (as carbon dioxide equivalent, CO₂e) would be sequestered on U.S. timberlands relative to the baseline case over the next 50 years (30–137 Tg CO₂e annually). These projected amounts of sequestered carbon on timberlands take into account projected increases in timber removal and forest carbon losses on other timberlands (carbon leakage effects). Net effectiveness of carbon reserve scenarios in terms of overall net gain in timberland carbon stocks from 2010 to 2060 ranged from 0.29 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $5/tCO₂e to the landowner (71% leakage), to 0.15 tCO₂e net carbon increase for a payment of $15/tCO₂e to the landowner (85% leakage). A policy or program to buy carbon credits from landowners would need to discount additions to the carbon reserve by the estimated amount of leakage. In the scenarios evaluated, the timber set-asides reduced timberland area available for harvest up to 35% and available timber inventory up to 55%, relative to the baseline scenario over the next 50 years, resulting in projected changes in timber prices, harvest levels, and forest product revenues for the forest products sector.     

Consequences of carbon offset payments for the global forest sector

Long-term effects of policies to induce carbon storage in forests were projected with the Global Forest Products Model. Offset payments for carbon sequestered in forest biomass of $15–$50/t CO₂e applied in all countries increased CO₂ sequestration in world forests by 5–14 billion tons from 2009 to 2030. Limiting implementation to developed countries exported environmental damage from North to South, as developing countries harvested more, decreasing their stored CO₂e. Substantially more CO₂e was sequestered by allocating a given budget to all countries rather than to developed countries only. As offset payments increased wood prices relatively more than they decreased production, timber revenues generally increased. In the few countries with timber revenues losses they were more than compensated by the offset payments.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

木质林产品进口与中国木材市场消费及木材生产关系的实证研究

根据协整理论和格兰杰因果检验方法,对中国木质林产品进口和国内木材市场消费量及木材年产量之间的关系进行了实证研究。分析结果表明:中国木质林产品进口与木材消费量及年产量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,同时在滞后期为1的情况下木质林产品进口与木材市场消费量和木材年产量之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。据此,在分析国内木材供需的基础上,提出了大力发展人工林、提高木材利用率、优化进口市场结构等对策建议,以解决对进口木材依赖的问题。     

欧盟木材法案诠释及对中国林产工业的影响

提出欧盟木材法案是在国际森林公约的难产背景下欧盟采取的单边行动,介绍了法案的主要内容,并从法案是国内法、意图通过内部法影响全球森林管理、强调第三方的作用、意图推动VPA和强化欧盟成员国内木材行业协会对他国木材和木制品管制4个方面进行了诠释,认为法案的实施将显著增加中国出口的木质林产品成本、合法获取中国林产工业的商业机密、减少中国木材进口来源、降低中国出口企业的产品议价能力,同时有利于推动中国的林产工业创新和升级,提高企业的管理能力。最后从加强研究、加强与木材生产国的合作、开拓新兴市场和培育企业核心竞争力4个方面提出对策建议。     

Woody biomass potential for energy feedstock in United States

The production reliability and relatively low costs of sustainably harvested woody biomass such as logging residue and low value roundwood could make it a significant component of the Renewable Fuel Standards portfolio. This research explored a set of woody biomass harvesting combinations of different sources and wood types using a cost minimizing linear programming model populated with disaggregated regional inventory, yield, and cost data, and projected future conventional wood demand of the United States. The model pre-satisfied conventional wood demand before harvesting roundwood as woody biomass. Findings suggest that collecting forest residue and non-merchantable (small sized) timber may provide the largest initial contribution in woody biomass supply. Regional estimations imply that not all regions have the capacity to develop bioenergy plants without using merchantable (medium sized) wood. Within a reasonable range of harvesting costs, demand for roundwood is expected to increase with higher energy production targets. Harvesting merchantable natural softwood as woody biomass has a relatively small impact on marginal supply costs. This will result in little or no disturbance to merchantable natural softwood timber management and operations if demand for woody biomass increased.     

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D-led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture. Our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural R&D expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions. Given climate-driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models, we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006–2050 would require increased R&D adaptation investments of between $187 billion and $1,384 billion (in 2005 $PPP) if we invest between 2020 and 2040. This is 16–118% higher than global R&D investment if present spending trends continue. Although these costs are significant, worldwide R&D-led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns. Moreover, R&D-led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion.     

中国和国际林产品贸易对森林保护和人民生计的影响

分析了中国林产品进出口的总量、结构、变化、增长趋势及对相关国家和地区人民生计的影响,提出了作为进口国消费国、生产国和加工国应采取的措施。1997年到2005年间,中国林产品进口总量折合原木材积增长了两倍多,从0.40亿m3增长到1.34亿m3,进口额也翻了一番。2005年,俄罗斯、马来西亚、印尼、泰国、巴布新几内亚列中国总木质林产品进口前5名,进口额占71.6%;加拿大、印尼、俄罗斯、智利、美国列纸浆进口前5位,进口额占77.6%;美国、日本、香港、欧盟是中国林产品出口的主要目的地。中国迅速增长的林产品贸易对国际社会也有消极影响,导致不可持续采伐、非法采伐等问题,但中国只是全球产业链上的一环,来自美国、欧盟和日本的购买者和零售商也负有不可推卸的责任。中国应认清其在国际林产品贸易中的关键地位,加快其林业部门的改革步伐,推动本国的林产品生产和供给,实现可持续的林业发展。     

The multiple effects of carbon values on optimal rotation

Non-consumptive benefits which increase with crop age, like keeping carbon sequestered, lengthen optimal rotation compared with rotation for timber alone. High proposed carbon prices may extend rotation indefinitely. Carbon storage in wood products reduces this tendency. Biomass as an energy source displacing fossil fuels favours rotations near those of maximum biomass productivity. Use of sawn timber to displace structural materials with high embodied carbon favours somewhat longer rotations. Effects of rotation on soil carbon, and fossil carbon volatilised in harvesting operations, are further complications. Including all carbon effects results in optimal rotations somewhat longer than those based only on timber value, but shorter than those based on timber plus forest carbon. To include all factors intuitively is not possible: balanced appraisal needs economic calculations.     

中国林产品PPI指数波动的ARCH族-HP滤波分析

了解林产品生产者价格指数波动的特征对稳定林产品PPI和价格水平有重要意义。采用ARCH-LM和残差平方和相关图方法检验后认为:木材、竹材PPI序列不存在不存在ARCH效应;HP滤波分析显示木材和竹材行业的PPI指数长期趋势比较平稳,相比于木材市场,近期竹材的市场供求状态相对合理;采用GARCH-M、TARCH和EARCH模型分析认为胶脂和果实类林产品市场不存在"高风险-高收益"特征,但胶脂和果实类林产品PPI指数波动存在非对称性。     

中国-欧盟木质林产品贸易影响因素的实证分析

基于UNcomtrade数据库整理的数据,分析中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易状况,利用扩展的引力模型识别中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易的关键影响因素。研究结果表明:中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易在2000²008年间处于增长阶段;但2008年受全球金融危机的不利影响,中国出口所占比例持续下降,贸易顺差呈缩小趋势,市场集中度与产品集中度均较高;国内生产总值、森林资源禀赋差异、劳动力资源禀赋差异、欧盟东扩及海岸线等因素对中国与欧盟木质林产品贸易具有显著的促进作用,而相对距离、汇率、金融危机等因素却起着显著的抑制作用。     

Valuing habitat regime models for the red-cockaded woodpecker in Mississippi

Managing Mississippi's forest lands to produce both quality wildlife habitat as well as merchantable timber can be a daunting challenge for forest managers and a source of great concern for the public. In some cases, producing both the quantity and quality of habitat needed and the timber desired is all but impossible. In other cases, a delicate balance that achieves both objectives can be struck. The objective of this study was to quantitatively estimate monetary gains and losses and changes in timber inventories relative to the timber growing stock when producing more or less habitat for the red-cockaded woodpecker (RCW) (Picoides borealis). USDA Forest Service vegetation data, habitat ratings, and economic variables were compiled for those regions of Mississippi best suited for RCWs. Data was then analyzed with Spectrum, the USDA Forest Service-based forest planning software. Models maximizing such objectives as net present value (NPV) alone as well as five different levels of RCW habitat quality over a 50-year rotation were developed. Revenue foregone, acres and volumes harvested, land expectation value (LEV), and equivalent annual income (EAI) were compared for all objectives for the South Central Hills and Pine Belt regions of Mississippi (1,036,208 acres) for three ownership types. As expected, when maximizing for any quality level of RCW habitat, revenue forgone was higher ($0.11–$49/acre/year) than for NPV alone. Volume harvested for high-quality habitat ranged from 152,296 to 10,237,649 cunits, while harvests from low-quality habitat ranged from 637,491 to 116,357,673 cunits. Lower levels of habitat management allowed for an increased emphasis on timber harvesting. In general, we determined that increases in habitat quality resulted in lower timber harvest levels and increased revenue forgone than regimes maximizing NPVs. While this result may be expected, of greater importance are the relative differences between regimes and the ability to use these values for policy decisions.     

天然林可持续利用研究——以山西中条山国有林为例

探讨了天保工程10年天然林保护向何处去的问题。认为应充分利用天然林资源可再生的特性,掌握其规律,在保护为先的基础上,科学地经营利用天然林。主要措施:通过低产林改造建设生物能源林和中药材基地;利用抚育材发展菌类等森林食品;选择林相结构合理的林分培育大径材;依托自然保护区发展森林旅游业。     

Potential impact of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the global forest sector

The effects of a transatlantic trade agreement on the global forest sector were assessed with the Global Forest Products Model, conditional on previous macroeconomic impacts predicted with a general equilibrium model. Comprehensive tariff elimination per se had little effect on the forest sector. However, with deeper reforms and integration consumption would increase twice as much in percent in the US as in the EU. Net trade decreased in the US more than in the EU while it increased in Asia. Consumers and producers’ welfare increased by $7000 million in the EU and $14,000 million in the US, but decreased in some third countries, especially in Asia.     

EU Policies on Bioenergy and their Potential Clash with the WTO

The paper outlines EU policy on bioenergy, including biofuels, in the context of its policy initiatives to promote renewable energy to combat greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. The EU’s Member States are responsible for implementing EU policy: thus, the UK’s Renewables Obligation on electricity suppliers and its Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation and road‐fuel tax rebates are examined. It is unlikely that EU policy is in conflict with the WTO Agreement on Agriculture or that on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures, but its provisions on environmental sustainability criteria could be problematic.     

中国主要木材产品的需求收入弹性测算与启示

木材产品是重要的林产品,是国家经济建设和人民生活主要的资料,在国民经济与社会发展中发挥积极作用。通过构建双对数模型,采用实证分析的方法,估算出2005²012年间原木、锯材和人造板这三种木材林产品的平均需求收入弹性分别为0.301、1.100和1.338,总结出中国木材产品消费和国民经济增长的作用规律,并得到加速森林资源培育、继续优化产业结构和建立可持续贸易机制几点启示。     

中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动原因分析

基于联合国贸易数据库林产品数据,应用恒定市场份额模型,探究1998—2018年造成中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易波动现象的影响因素。结果表明:1998—2018年,中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品贸易集中于资源密集型和需求增长较快的产品,且贸易波动呈现出明显的阶段性;中国进口俄罗斯木质林产品总额波动现象受产品结构、市场规模、竞争力等多种因素影响,其中中国进口结构和国内市场需求是贸易波动的主要因素;此外,中俄林产品贸易还受到世界经济环境的影响。因此,中国应寻找其他进口渠道,减少对俄罗斯供给的依赖,保障中国木质林产品产业安全,密切关注两国经济政策变化,及时调整进口贸易策略,促进中俄木质林产品贸易的健康稳定发展。     

雷斯法案修正案与欧盟木材法案比较研究及中国应对策略

通过分析美国雷斯法案修正案与欧盟木材法案的相同点与不同点,着重探讨了如何使中国木材合法性认定体系更具兼容性和可操作性,并提出制定认定标准,完善认定程序;开展木材合法性认定体系试点工作;开展能力培训及加强木材合法性认定体系中关键问题的研究等建议。     

中美贸易战对林产品贸易的影响及其对策建议

在梳理中美林产品贸易相互关系的基础上,分析了新一轮贸易战将对中美林业产业、林产品贸易、就业等的影响。结果表明:贸易战对中低级技术水平的从业人员影响较大,短期内对中国传统优势产品出口冲击较大,但长期反而能分摊和降低贸易风险,以价格优势为主的微利型木材加工企业和以美国为主要出口市场的出口导向型企业将面临较大风险;同时,贸易战不仅会直接损害美国消费者利益,还会加速其木材产业的萎缩。拓宽进口渠道,扩展替代市场和国内市场,加快国际合作,加强技术创新,落实财政政策是中国减缓和避免贸易战对中美双方林产品贸易产生不利影响的应对措施。