Firm heterogeneity in growth option value: The role of managerial incentives

Growth option value varies widely across firms. This research explores managerial incentives as a source of firm heterogeneity in growth option value. We argue that when the payoff structure of managerial incentives corresponds to that of growth options, managers will be motivated to pursue actions that increase firms' growth option value, particularly when greater growth opportunities are available in an industry. Results indicate that stock option holdings and managerial stock ownership have a positive effect on growth option value, while short‐term pay has a negative effect. We also find support for a positive interaction effect between equity‐based managerial incentives and industry growth opportunities on growth option value. These findings highlight the critical role of managerial incentives in affecting firms' realization of growth option value. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Toward a behavioral theory of real options: Noisy signals,bias, and learning

Research Summary: We develop a behavioral theory of real options that relaxes the informational and behavioral assumptions underlying applications of financial options theory to real assets. To do so, we augment real option theory's focus on uncertain future asset values (prospective uncertainty) with feedback learning theory that considers uncertain current asset values (contemporaneous uncertainty). This enables us to incorporate behavioral bias in the feedback learning process underlying the option execution/termination decision. The resulting computational model suggests that firms that inappropriately account for contemporaneous uncertainty and are subject to learning biases may experience substantial downside risk in undertaking real options. Moreover, contrary to the standard option result, greater uncertainty may decrease option value, making commitment to an investment path more effective than remaining flexible. Managerial Summary: Executives recognize the need to make uncertain investments to grow their business while mitigating downside risk. The analogy between financial options and real corporate investments provides an appealing method to consider the practical challenge of such investment decisions. Unfortunately, the “real options” analogy seems to break down in practice. We identify how a second form of uncertainty confounds real options intuition, leading managers to overestimate the value of uncertain investments. We present a behavioral real options model that accounts for both forms of uncertainty and suggest how uncertainty interacts with behavioral bias in the option execution/termination decision. Our model facilitates assessment of the conditions under which investments in uncertain opportunities are usefully considered as real options, and provides a means to evaluate their attractiveness.     

The role of firm resources and organizational attributes in determining entry timing: a cross-industry study

We investigate the factors that influence the timing of entry of firms into new industries based on new technology. Consistent with previous research, it is hypothesized that firm resources and organizational attributes influence entry timing. Unlike previous research, there is specific consideration of how industry setting—specifically, the extent to which it offers first mover advantages—influences the ability to predict timing of entry. The ability to explain entry timing differed across industries, with success occurring in the industry with strong first mover advantages. Two categories of resources, technological and marketing, were found to be associated with early entry. The organizational attributes that influenced early entry were commitment to a threatened market and (surprisingly) greater size. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

What doesn't kill you makes you stronger: The evolution of competition and entry‐order advantages in economically turbulent contexts

We examine the evolution of competition and entry‐order advantages in markets under macroeconomic distress. Through formal modeling of early‐mover advantages along industry life cycles subjected to economic shocks and based on simulation findings, we propose that such shocks exogenously induce temporary industry discontinuities that shift the relative value of distinct asset endowments, thereby switching the bases for competitive advantages vis‐à‐vis those found in stable contexts. A vital trade‐off then emerges between a firm's financial flexibility and its pace of investments in isolating mechanisms, such that the former operates as a contingency factor for the latter. As such, flexibility superiority boosts early‐entrants' advantages, while it alternatively gives laggards a much desired strength to out trump first‐mover rivals. Our study informs entry‐order advantage theory and management practice in economically turbulent contexts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Real options in equity partnerships

We examine factors influencing the decision to acquire additional equity in partner firms in research‐intensive industries. This decision involves choosing between flexibility and commitment. Option theory motivates hypotheses regarding the effects of uncertainty, valuation of developing technologies, and the threat of preemptive rivalry. Our main hypothesis is that the resolution of uncertainty for high‐value technologies motivates commitment decisions. We also argue that when the underlying growth option is at risk of preemption by rivals, greater uncertainty encourages commitment. An event history model tests these hypotheses using data from minority investments in the biotechnology industry. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Governance and uncertainty: the trade-off between administrative control and commitment

This study elaborates upon the motives for initiating equity-based collaborations vs. acquisition of another firm already having a desired technology. We characterize both minority direct investments and joint ventures as options to defer either internal development or acquisition of a target firm. In domains where learning about growth opportunities dominates investment activity, this incremental mode of governance economizes on the cost of committing resources to a technology with an uncertain value. Using a sample of 402 transactions in the biotechnology industry, we find strong support for the theoretical model. The findings suggest that the cost of commitment in the face of technological uncertainty may offset the administrative benefits of hierarchical governance. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mental Models and Successful First‐mover Entry Decisions: Empirical Evidence from Chinese Entrepreneurs

Existing research has identified a variety of mechanisms through which early entrants may be able to develop competitive advantages that favorably influence performance relative to later entrants. At the same time, later entrants can sometimes enjoy cost advantages arising from free riding and the resolution of uncertainty. Despite the impressive array of possible explanations linking entry timing with performance, it is unclear how these explanations align with the cognitive representations that guide managerial decision making. The authors address this gap in the literature by arguing that the resource‐based view of the firm provides potential insight into the way that perceived pioneer advantages and disadvantages influence managerial behavior. The resource‐based view argues that the value of various pioneer advantages will depend on the degree to which those advantages enable pioneers to access and control resources that are costly to copy. Because legal and cultural variables also influence access to resources, the value of specific dimensions of pioneer advantage will vary depending on the macroenvironment within which a firm operates. To test this reasoning, the authors examine the impact of perceived pioneer advantages on the number of first‐mover entry decisions of Chinese service entrepreneurs, who operate in an environment characterized by underdeveloped legal institutions and inadequate legal protections, a fledgling capital market, the limited availability of information about products and industries, and an emphasis on personal connections. The authors hypothesize that these unique characteristics of Chinese markets will affect the perceived importance of sources of pioneer advantage identified in studies of Western (primarily United States) firms. Using data collected from 302 Chinese service entrepreneurs, the authors find strong evidence that the number of pioneer entry decisions made by Chinese entrepreneurs are strongly tied to entrepreneurs’ perceptions that pioneer firms tend to outperform later entrants and have the ability to preempt key assets. In addition, the number of entry decisions is negatively related to perceptions of pioneer cost disadvantages and the level of uncertainty faced by pioneers relative to later entrants. However, consistent with the research hypotheses, perceptions of pioneer leadership and cost advantages do not significantly influence the entry decisions of Chinese service entrepreneurs.     

A Comparative Study of Pioneer Entry Decisions in the United States and China

According to the resource‐based view of the firm, competitive advantages arise from control and deployment of productive resources that are rare and difficult to imitate. Through early entry, pioneers can gain preferential access to key resources. However, the value of that access depends on the presence of isolating mechanisms that limit or prevent competitive imitation. Isolating mechanisms increase the desirability of early entry by lengthening the time horizon over which the firm can earn Ricardian rents on those resources. To explore these implications of the resource‐based view, this study examines the impact of isolating mechanisms on pioneer advantages by analyzing the market entry timing decisions of 209 U.S. and 302 Chinese entrepreneurs. We hypothesize that the stronger intellectual property and legal protections available in the United States are an isolating mechanism that should increase the perceived importance of differentiation and cost advantages in the United States relative to China. Consistent with this argument, we find evidence that the relationships between the number of successful first‐mover decisions and (1) perceived pioneer differentiation advantages and (2) perceived cost advantages are relatively stronger in the United States than in China. We also argue that the importance of personal relationships in China constitutes an isolating mechanism that should increase the perceived importance of preemptive pioneer advantages in China relative to the United States. Consistent with this reasoning, we find that the coefficient linking perceptions of pioneer preemptive advantages with the number of successful first‐mover decisions is significant in the Chinese sample and not in the U.S. sample, but the difference between these coefficients is not significant. These results provide support for the argument that the availability of strong IP and legal protection encourages early entry decisions by entrepreneurs because these protections enhance the pioneer's ability to build a differentiated position in the minds of target customers and secure a cost advantage over later entrants. The results also support the argument that strong personal connections and the practice of reciprocity play a key role in the success of Chinese entrepreneurs.     

Do early birds get the returns? An empirical investigation of early‐mover advantages in acquisitions

We explore whether pioneering advantages exist for early‐mover acquirers in industry acquisition waves by examining both combined (target and acquirer) and acquirer stock returns. Combined abnormal returns are higher for acquisitions that occur at the beginning of acquisition waves. However, for acquirers' returns, only strategic pioneers—those acting in manners consistent with having superior information—capture significant advantages. Specifically, early‐mover acquirers who realize superior stock returns are those that conduct acquisitions in related industries, during industry expansionary phases, and finance their acquisitions as financial theory suggests they should when they possess an informational advantage—with cash. Our findings extend the first‐mover literature to corporate practices and link these practices to acquisition returns. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Option value and entry timing

When facing uncertainty, firms entering new markets can make initial foothold investments rather than undertake large sunk investments. Such investments are real call option purchases. They offer management flexibility, but also raise questions about whether and when to increase commitments to new markets. We present an entry timing decision criterion and discuss its application to a variety of market entry situations. Optimal timing for exercising real options depends on current dividends, possibilities for preemption, and whether the option is simple or compound, proprietary or shared. Our analysis reveals critical assumptions and new theoretical insights regarding market entry timing. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Getting beyond relatedness as a driver of corporate value

Our paper scrutinizes how corporate value derives from redeployability of firms' resources to new product markets. We focus on the underexplored determinant of redeployability, inducements, defined as advantages in returns in new over existing markets. We assemble separate dimensions of inducements from research on corporate diversification and real options and consider inducements in their entirety. A simulation model casts redeployability as a real option to switch the use of resources across markets and explicates important interdependences among the dimensions of inducements. The model also demonstrates that inducements modify the effect of relatedness on corporate value. Our theoretical arguments amend existing theory and have important implications for corporate diversification research. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

经理人股票期权价值的理论及应用

股票期权激励的研究和实践中广泛应用布莱克——斯科尔斯模型进行股票期权的公允价值计价,然而对经理人而言的股票期权价值还要考虑经理人的风险偏好、财富的多元化程度等因素的影响。经理人期权价值不等于公司期权成本的基本理论可以解决及解释在股票期权实践中的一些关键性问题,如期权激励有效性的衡量、激励期权的风险溢价、最优行权价的确定、行权时间的确定。该理论的应用对我国上市公司股权激励的实施也有重要启示。     

Fast‐mover advantages: Speed capabilities and entry into the emerging submarket of atlantic basin LNG

Entry timing benefits and costs typically vary with firms' capabilities. In this study, we empirically examine the entry timing implications of firms' intrinsic speed capabilities, which refer to the ability to execute investment projects faster than competitors. We hypothesize that firms with intrinsic speed capabilities face low preemption risks and, thus, can afford to wait longer for uncertainty resolution before deciding to enter new markets. This hypothesis is more applicable when investment is associated with higher levels of commitment and, thus, greater option value of waiting. A direct implication is that late entrants with intrinsic speed capabilities should have greater expected post‐entry performance. We find support for these hypotheses in the Atlantic Basin liquefied natural gas (LNG) industry from 1996 to 2007. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Entry,imperfect competition,and futures market for the input

We analyze firms' entry, production and hedging decisions under imperfect competition. We consider an oligopoly industry producing a homogeneous output in which risk-averse firms face an entry cost upon entering the industry, and then compete in Cournot with one another. Each firm faces uncertainty in the input cost when making production decision, and has access to the futures market to hedge the random cost. We provide two sets of results. First, under general assumptions about risk preferences, demand, and uncertainty, we characterize the unique equilibrium. In contrast to previous results in the literature (without entry), both production and output price depend on uncertainty and risk aversion. Specifically, when entry is endogenized and the futures price is not actuarially fair, access to the futures market does not lead to separation. Second, to study the effect of access to the futures market on entry and production, we restrict attention to constant absolute risk aversion (CARA) preferences, a linear demand, and a normal distribution for the spot price. In general, the effect of access to the futures market on the number of firms and production is ambiguous.     

Optimal exploration investments under price and geological‐technical uncertainty: a real options model

This article develops a real options model for valuing natural resource exploration investments (e.g. oil or copper) when there is joint price and geological‐technical uncertainty. After a successful several‐stage exploration phase, there is a development investment and an extraction phase. All phases are optimized contingent on price and geological‐technical uncertainty.
Several real options are considered. There are flexible investment schedules for all exploration stages and a timing option for the development investment. Once the mine is developed, there are closure, opening and abandonment options for the extraction phase. Our model maintains a relatively simple valuation structure by collapsing price and geological‐technical uncertainty into a one‐factor model.
We apply the model to a copper exploration prospect and find that a significant fraction of total project value is due to the operational, development and exploration options available to project managers.     

Integrating Real Options with Managerial Cash Flow Estimates

This article presents a real options model that fits managerial cash flow estimates (optimistic, likely, and pessimistic projections) to a continuous geometric Brownian motion (GBM) cash flow process with changing growth and volatility parameters. The cash flows and the value of a project are correlated to a traded asset, so the real option is priced under the risk-neutral measure with a closed-form solution. The analysis is extended to a sequential compound call option for investments over multiple periods. If the project is correlated to the market, then some of the risk may be mitigated by a delta-hedging strategy. A numerical example shows that the effect of the correlated asset on the real option value is significant, and the relationship between the volatility of the project and the real option value is not analogous to the typical relationship found in financial option pricing. Integrating the expertise and industry knowledge of management, this approach makes possible a more rigorous estimation of model inputs for real option pricing.     

Strategic planning: valuing and managing portfolios of real options

This article presents a value-based strategic planning framework suitable for valuing and managing portfolios of corporate real options. The proposed framework combines insights from strategic management theory with novel quantitative valuation tools from finance. Strategic planning is viewed as a process of actively developing and managing portfolios of corporate real options in the context of competitive interactions. As such, the expanded valuation framework recognizes that future growth opportunity value deriving from the firm's resources and capabilities must explicitly account for uncertainty, adaptability, and competitive responsiveness. The resulting expanded valuation framework is able to capture the value of the adaptive resources and capabilities that enable a firm to adapt and re-deploy assets, develop and exploit synergies, and gain competitive advantage via time-to-market and first- or second-mover advantages. We show how two basic metrics in this value-based framework, current profitability of assets in place and future growth option value, can be obtained from financial market data and how they can be used in active portfolio planning.     

Pricing real growth options when the underlying assets have jump diffusion processes: the case of R&D investments

Numerous previous studies have demonstrated that research and development (R&D) investments can be evaluated by a real growth options approach. However, few studies have constructed evaluating models which consider the important R&D characteristics, including uncertainty regarding the project value, investment cost, and jump diffusion processes. The contribution of this study is not only to derive a model for evaluating R&D investments to conform to these key characteristics of R&D activities but also to build a real option pricing method that is more general than comparative important models, such as the theoretical papers of Black and Scholes (1973), Merton (1976), and Fischer (1978), and the application paper of Brach and Paxson (2001). This study also presents sensitivity analyses which illustrate the dynamic relationship between the real growth option value and the project value, investment cost, and main jump parameters. Hopefully, the results of this study can provide a useful reference for managers, and help them make better evaluations of R&D investments.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN THE MAINTENANCE,REPAIR, AND OVERHAUL INDUSTRY: AN OPTIONS APPROACH

This paper presents a practical case application of the real options framework to a multi-stage investment in the aerospace maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry. With the deregulated commercial airline industry and military procurement reform, the $44 billion MRO sector must implement tools to remain strategically poised. In this case study, the MRO participant values a multi-stage irreversible expenditure in maintenance equipment and processes under air travel demand uncertainty using a real options analysis. The investment scenario is viewed from a delay, growth, and compound options framework, and an appropriate sensitivity analysis is performed. The main contribution of this paper is the detailed real option framing, valuation, and discussion that may be used as an illustration for industry practitioners or classroom instruction.     

Efficient versus Responsive Supply Chain Choice: An Empirical Examination of Influential Factors

Contemporary strategies in operations management suggest that successful firms align supply chain assets with product demand characteristics in order to exploit the profit potential of product lines fully. However, observation suggests that supply chain assets often are longer lived than product line decisions. This suggests that alignment between supply chain assets and demand characteristics is most likely to occur at the time of initial market entry. This article examines the association between product demand characteristics and the initial investment in a supply chain at the time of market entry. We characterize supply chains as responsive or efficient. A responsive supply chain is distinguished by short production lead‐times, low set‐up costs, and small batch sizes that allow the responsive firm to adapt quickly to market demand, but often at a higher unit cost. An efficient supply chain is distinguished by longer production lead‐times, high set‐up costs, and larger batch sizes that allow the efficient firm to produce at a low unit cost, but often at the expense of market responsiveness. We hypothesize that a firm's choice of responsive supply chain will be associated with lower industry growth rates, higher contribution margins, higher product variety, and higher demand or technological uncertainty. We further hypothesize that interactions among these variables either can reinforce or can temper the main effects. We report that lower industry growth rates are associated with responsive market entry, but this effect is offset if growth occurs during periods of high variety and high demand uncertainty. We report that higher contribution margins are associated with responsive market entry and that this effect is more pronounced when occurring with periods of high variety. Finally, we report that responsive market entry also is correlated positively with higher technological demand uncertainty. These results are found using data from the North American mountain bike industry.