Injury count model for quantification of risk of occupational injury

Reduction of risk of occupational injuries is one of the most challenging problems faced by industry. Assessing and comparing risks involved in different jobs is one of the important steps towards reducing injury risk. In this study, a comprehensive scheme is given for assessing and comparing injury risks with the development of injury count model, injury risk model and derived statistics. The hazards present in a worksystem and the nature of the job carried out by workers are perceived as important drivers of injury potential of a worksystem. A loglinear model is used to quantify injury counts and the event-tree approach with joint, marginal and conditional probabilities is used to quantify injury risk. A case study was carried out in an underground coalmine. Finally a number of indices are proposed for the case study mine to capture risk of injury in different jobs. The findings of this study will help in designing injury intervention strategies for the mine studied. The job-wise risk profiles will be used to prioritise the jobs for redesign. The absolute indices can be applied for benchmarking job-wise risks and the relative indices can be used for comparing job-wise risks across worksystems.     

Home injuries in Italy: patterns of injury and the most exposed people

Home injuries are a significant public health problem in developed and developing countries. To support future policies for reducing their occurrence and controlling their consequences, this study investigated the home injuries situation in Italy in 1999, using a nation-representative sample. The weighted correspondence analysis showed four different patterns of injury and seven profiles of the people most exposed to them. As results of this study falls were followed by bumps and cuts requiring specialist assistance then burns. Women were the most exposed to burn and fall risks and men to the risk of cuts and bumps. Among the elderly and children, falls and bumps leading to fractures, wounds or other consequences were frequent. The risks were highest for people with a lower level of education. Bumps and cuts were prevalent among unmarried and with the highest education level subjects. These injury risks were higher for young males. Cuts in adults doing do-it-yourself jobs had the worst consequences, while domestic work cuts generally did not need medical treatment. Burns occurred almost exclusively in the kitchen (90%) and did not need specialist assistance. Because home injuries are largely preventable, an efficient public health policy could promote and disseminate home safety culture.     

Country risk,country risk indices and valuation of FDI: a real options approach

Country risk, and in particular political risk, may constitute a large part of the total risk investors face when investing in emerging markets. It is not a straightforward task to quantify and include these types of risks in the evaluation and valuation of real investments. We suggest a method involving country risk indices. The approach is based on the real option approach for valuation of real investments.     

Analysis of occupational health hazards and associated risks in fuzzy environment: a case research in an Indian underground coal mine

This paper presents a unique hierarchical structure on various occupational health hazards including physical, chemical, biological, ergonomic and psychosocial hazards, and associated adverse consequences in relation to an underground coal mine. The study proposes a systematic health hazard risk assessment methodology for estimating extent of hazard risk using three important measuring parameters: consequence of exposure, period of exposure and probability of exposure. An improved decision making method using fuzzy set theory has been attempted herein for converting linguistic data into numeric risk ratings. The concept of ‘centre of area’ method for generalized triangular fuzzy numbers has been explored to quantify the ‘degree of hazard risk’ in terms of crisp ratings. Finally, a logical framework for categorizing health hazards into different risk levels has been constructed on the basis of distinguished ranges of evaluated risk ratings (crisp). Subsequently, an action requirement plan has been suggested, which could provide guideline to the managers for successfully managing health hazard risks in the context of underground coal mining exercise.     

Einfluss des Klimawandels auf die deutsche Energieversorgung

German energy supply faces a fundamental and long-term change. By the middle of the century, greenhouse gas emissions will have been greatly reduced and the global climate will start to change in a visible manner. In order to determine and to quantify the physical impacts of climate change on energy supply, a climate risk indicator for the energy industry based on a series of expert interviews has been developed. Climate change-induced risks will slightly outweigh the opportunities. The restructuring of the energy system has only minor effects, because the risks inherent to non-renewable energies, in particular those related to cooling water, are replaced by new risks, especially deriving from the use of biomass.     

Gemeinschaftsdiagnose im Frühjahr 2014

In 2014 and 2015 the German economy will, according to the joint economic forecast, be in an upswing that is mainly driven by strong internal demand. The institutes assess the risks coming from a possible slump of the Russian economy. Simulations with macroeconometric models show that Germany is more affected than other large economies in Europe such as France and Italy. The new minimum wage is a further risk for the German economy that it is difficult to assess. According to this forecast, the minimum wage will, when it comes into effect in 2015, mainly have an adverse effect on employment. Since in general only jobs with low productivity will be lost, the effect on production will be markedly smaller.     

财政风险金融化影响经济增长的模型分析与实证检验

中央政府以金融手段化解财政风险的行为,即为财政风险金融化。这种策略在短期内可能会抑制财政风险,但是,它不仅会导致通货膨胀,加大纳税人的税负,还会导致财政风险的持续上升,因此,从长期来看,财政风险金融化会向上推动经济风险,并最终抑制经济增长与发展。基于中国数据的协整检验表明,财政风险金融化在长期内对经济增长具有模型的抑制效应,若不有效限制这种政府行为,后果不堪设想。     

An epidemiological study of injury in mines: implications for safety promotion

This paper is intended to raise risk management as a topic for discussion among product safety professionals and discuss one particular key element of understanding risk. Risk management is an essential part of good product safety management, whether at the policy level or the implementation stage, and is relevant to all those involved in the development and use of standards, including regulators and suppliers. The risk management process involves measuring the risks at the initial stage, by looking at consequence (possible injury) and likelihood (of that injury occurring) which then gives us the ‘inherent risk.’ We then seek ways to treat the risks. A second assessment of the risks is subsequently done to establish the extent to which the treatment will address the problem (‘assessed risk’). In product safety, this means how dangerous is the product as it is and how effective will a measure be in reducing the risk. Communication is vital in this process. When standards are developed and policy adopted, the factors that are taken into consideration need to be properly documented. The rationales for decisions, i.e., what the hazard is and how it is treated by the product specification, should be recorded within the standard itself. In the absence of recorded reasons, assumptions are made and these may well be incorrect. This paper discusses this topic in some detail and provides illustrative examples.     

Toward understanding socio-economic inequalities in injury incidence and mortality

The existing knowledge on socio-economic inequality in injury risks is scarce and inconsistent and there is still a great need for sound epidemiological studies in this field. When performing these studies, the injury research community could benefit from the experience gained within other areas of public health. A recent project from the European Union has led, for example, to a set of proposed guidelines on several methodological aspects. Many of these are probably relevant for the injury problem field and will be addressed. Major issues are: – The distinction between individual-level and area-based studies; – The selection, measurement and classification of possible socio-economic indicators; – The expression of the magnitude of health inequalities with the help of possible summary indices; – The definition of the outcome measure (morbidity or mortality, general or specific). This paper illustrates the relevance of the aforementioned methodological issues with empirical data. Results are shown from both individual-level and area-based studies, using different socio-economic indicators and outcome measures. It is concluded that a systematic approach towards understanding socio-economic differences in injury incidence and mortality has not yet been conducted and seems highly needed. Future work in this area could benefit from experience gained within other areas of public health.     

The Risk of Future Labor Shortages in Different Occupations and Industries in the United States

In the next 10 years, there is likely to be a tight labor market, largely due to the ongoing retirement of baby boomers. This paper focuses on the details of occupations, industries, and regions in which there will be the highest risk of labor shortages in the United States. Twelve determinants of labor shortages were investigated to compile indices of labor shortage risk. These indices are presented and discussed for those occupations and industries that face the highest risks of labor shortages.     

The Oaks Colliery disaster of 1866: a case study in responsibility

This article examines the 1866 Oaks Colliery explosion as a case study for the wider context of coal mining safety. Behaviour within the mine is explored, along with how safety legislation was actually enacted there. Doing so allows the changing attitudes of the state, the owners and management, and the workers to be understood, and combines disparate literatures. It displays the process of establishing state responsibility for industrial workers, and the safety duties understood by other parties. Findings reveal the closeness of the state to the owners that created vague safety laws, and the risks deemed suitable to work under.     

International bank lending: Political risk and portfolio diversification

The extent to which a large U.S. bank, all U.S. banks, and banks in the Group of Ten took account of political risk in their international country exposures in 1976 is tested using a simple portfolio diversification model. Assuming that political risks are important relative to economic risks, and that political risks are uncorrelated across countries, these banks' exposures should be negatively related to political risk indices. However, the portfolios of these banks appear to be related to political risk only insofar as political risk is roughly approximated by GNP per capita. International banks were not yet able to systematically vary their international portfolios with respect to political risk.     

A measurement model for service capability from the customer perspective

This study develops a model to construct three quantitative indices for service capabilities from the customer perspective. The concept is derived from process capability indices which have been widely used to measure process capability and performance in manufacturing. This model expands their use in services by incorporating Taguchi’s quadratic loss function, zone of tolerance, and three-factor theory. To demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed indices, a case study of a telecom business was performed to assist the case firm in realizing the service capability of key factors for improving future service quality.     

Quantifying Sources of Risk in Global Food Operations and Supply Chain

The food industry plays a significant role in food supply. However, it is increasingly facing a significant number of risks to tackle. This article provides insight into sources and quantification of risk, which can restrict food operations and supply chain performance. Certainly, risks imposed by today's constantly changing global environment makes it imperative for food and agribusiness firms to develop purposeful proactive and predictive risk management for their global supply chains. We proposed the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) model to analyze sources of risks attached to the focal firm's global food operations and supply chain. The identified risks were from a review of relevant literature, expert opinions from the focal firm supply chain C‐level executive, and consultants in the food industry. We grouped the identified risks into seven categories and discussed the risk mitigation strategies. We validated the proposed model using a case study involving a focal food and agribusiness firm with global presence. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

ASYMPTOTIC EQUIVALENCE OF RISK MEASURES UNDER DEPENDENCE UNCERTAINTY

In this paper, we study the aggregate risk of inhomogeneous risks with dependence uncertainty, evaluated by a generic risk measure. We say that a pair of risk measures is asymptotically equivalent if the ratio of the worst‐case values of the two risk measures is almost one for the sum of a large number of risks with unknown dependence structure. The study of asymptotic equivalence is particularly important for a pair of a noncoherent risk measure and a coherent risk measure, as the worst‐case value of a noncoherent risk measure under dependence uncertainty is typically difficult to obtain. The main contribution of this paper is to establish general asymptotic equivalence results for the classes of distortion risk measures and convex risk measures under different mild conditions. The results implicitly suggest that it is only reasonable to implement a coherent risk measure for the aggregation of a large number of risks with uncertainty in the dependence structure, a relevant situation for risk management practice.     

Identifying risks in emerging market sovereign and corporate bond spreads

This paper investigates the systematic risk factors driving emerging market (EM) credit risk by jointly modeling sovereign and corporate credit spreads at a global level. We use a multi-regional Bayesian panel VAR model, with time-varying betas and multivariate stochastic volatility. This model allows us to decompose credit spreads and build indicators of EM risks. A key result is that indices of EM sovereign and corporate credit spreads differ because of their specific reactions to global risks (risk aversion, liquidity and US corporate risk). For example, following Lehman's default, EM sovereign spreads ‘decoupled’ from the US corporate market, whereas EM corporates ‘recoupled.’     

Robust risk aggregation with neural networks

We consider settings in which the distribution of a multivariate random variable is partly ambiguous. We assume the ambiguity lies on the level of the dependence structure, and that the marginal distributions are known. Furthermore, a current best guess for the distribution, called reference measure, is available. We work with the set of distributions that are both close to the given reference measure in a transportation distance (e.g., the Wasserstein distance), and additionally have the correct marginal structure. The goal is to find upper and lower bounds for integrals of interest with respect to distributions in this set. The described problem appears naturally in the context of risk aggregation. When aggregating different risks, the marginal distributions of these risks are known and the task is to quantify their joint effect on a given system. This is typically done by applying a meaningful risk measure to the sum of the individual risks. For this purpose, the stochastic interdependencies between the risks need to be specified. In practice, the models of this dependence structure are however subject to relatively high model ambiguity. The contribution of this paper is twofold: First, we derive a dual representation of the considered problem and prove that strong duality holds. Second, we propose a generally applicable and computationally feasible method, which relies on neural networks, in order to numerically solve the derived dual problem. The latter method is tested on a number of toy examples, before it is finally applied to perform robust risk aggregation in a real‐world instance.     

A risk assessment study on accidents at French level crossings using Bayesian belief networks

Level crossing (LX) safety continues to be one of the most critical issues for railways despite an ever increasing focus on improving design and practices. In the present paper, a framework of probabilistic risk assessment and improvement decision based on Bayesian belief networks (PRAID-BBN) is proposed. The developed framework aims to analyse various impacting factors which may cause LX accidents, and quantify the contribution of these factors so as to identify the crucial factors which contribute most to the LX accidents. A detailed statistical analysis is first carried out based on the accident/incident data. A BBN risk model is established according to the statistical results. Then, we apply the PRAID-BBN framework on the basis of the accident/incident data provided by SNCF, the French national railway operator. The main outputs of our study are conducive to efficiently focusing on the effort/budget to make LXs safer.     

基于信息不对称的物流金融风险缓释探讨

风险是目前物流金融的关键问题。文章以增强物流金融的实用性为出发点,采用三维立体图分析得出了信息不对称下物流金融的九大风险。针对这些风险,文章进行了基于物联网的可视化设计,并提出了相应的风险管理方法,为信息不对称下物流金融风险的缓释提供了建议与意见。