粮食直补政策评价对农户农田转入意愿影响的分析——基于江西省农户调查的实证

通过农户调查,实证分析农户的粮食直补政策满意度对农户农田转入意愿的影响。广大农民对国家粮食直接补贴政策具有较高的满意度,粮食直接补贴政策对农户农田转入意愿没有显著影响,但对粮食直补政策满意度高、收入主要来源于农业的农户农田转入意愿具有显著的正向影响,农户预期收入来源是粮食直接补贴政策对农户农田转入意愿产生影响的一个边界条件。根据粮食播种面积实施差别粮食直接补贴将最大程度地激发农户转入农田、扩大粮食生产,取得更大的粮食直接补贴政策绩效。     

农户兼业对农业生产效率的影响研究——基于山东省胶州市调查数据的分析

文章通过对山东省胶州市农村调研获得数据的分析,试图从微观层面考察农户兼业对农业生产效率的影响。研究结果表明：农户兼业对农业生产效率的影响取决于农户的兼业程度,二兼户的农业生产效率低于纯农户和一兼户;农户兼业主要通过劳动力水平及利用状况、耕地占有和利用状况以及农用物资投入强度等途径对农业生产效率产生影响。并有针对性地提出了确立适度规模农户在农业生产中的主导地位、促进农户分工等对策及建议。     

农业扶持政策对阜蒙县耕地利用结构的影响

文章通过多元线性回归方程,利用最小二乘法实证分析了2004年以来国家实施的粮食生产补贴、农资综合补贴、良种补贴及阜蒙县政府出台的扶持政策对阜蒙县耕地利用产生的影响.研究结果表明粮食直补和农资综合补贴政策能够激励农户扩大玉米作物的播种面积,但影响力小于玉米良种补贴政策.花生良种补贴政策和阜蒙县制定的农业扶持政策也对促进农户扩大花生播种面积起到了显著作用.     

农户粮食作物施肥量现状及影响因子研究——以陕西省商南县为例

以陕西省商南县200户农户为调研对象,从粮食生产的决策主体——农户出发,在分析样本地区农户自身状况、农户农业生产情况以及区域农业政策等的基础上,运用多元选择模型,探讨农户粮食作物施肥现状以及影响农户施肥的主要因子。通过调查发现农户个体特征,化肥、农产品的价格,农业政策等因素直接影响着农户施肥决策,其中农户文化程度对农民化肥施用的影响最大。     

农业补贴对中国农户粮食生产的影响分析

我国人口多,耕地少,因此粮食种植面临诸多问题。为了促进我国粮食生产的可持续发展,有关部门实施了一系列的农业税收减免及农业补贴政策,这对保障我国粮食生产、激发农民生产积极性、提高农民收入、加快农业现代化等,都具有十分积极的作用。文章首先分析了我国实施农业补贴的必要性,并探讨了我国实施农业补贴对粮食生产的影响。最后阐述了当前农业补贴的各种问题及改进策略。希望为我国农业补贴政策的完善和农业的可持续发展提供一些有益参考。     

农业补贴政策的预期绩效分析:渑池县农户调查

本文运用渑池县100个农户样本2004、2005年社会、经济数据对近期农业补贴政策的预期绩效进行了系统分析,结果表明:农业补贴虽然能增加农户收入,但它对农户生产总投入的影响不大;农户在农业内部的资金和劳动投入结构变动与农业补贴也没有直接的因果关系,投入结构变动主要是由农户的生产经验和农业生产的多种有序性决定的;短期内,该农业补贴虽然增加了农户的非生产性收入,提高了农户对未来的经济预期,但对农户增加生产投入的激励作用却很有限。     

退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入与收入的影响——基于长期连续跟踪大样本农户数据

利用6省区、15县市、2707个样本农户1995—2016年连续跟踪调研数据,在充分考虑相关政策和市场因素等动态变化的基础上,定量估计退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入的影响,采用递归方程模型估计了退耕还林工程对农户收入的直接影响(退耕还林补助与放弃的退耕地种植业收益之差)和间接影响(退耕还林工程引起生产要素配置调整带来的收入变化)。结果表明:第一,农户参与退耕还林使其耕地经营面积减少25.06%,林地经营面积增加57.88%,以土地为基础的生产费用减少11.41%,非农劳动力投入增加9.99%;退耕还林工程对样本农户以土地为基础的劳动力投入和种植业集约经营未产生显著影响。第二,退耕还林工程直接增加了样本农户3.73%的以土地为基础的收入,间接增加了8.57%的以土地为基础的收入和7.85%的非农收入。第三,相对于黄河流域,退耕还林工程对长江流域样本农户收入的直接影响较大,但间接影响较小。在退耕还林工程后续政策设计中,需充分重视退耕还林工程对农户生产要素投入和收入的影响及其路径,强化因地制宜的理念。     

实行土地有偿转让是实现规模经营的重要途径

(一)农业的基本资料是土地。土地经营的规模程度,农业结构的配置和投入状况,对农业生产的发展有着极其重大的影响。当前,在农村生产力水平不断提高和发展的情况下,的确没有土地的适度规模,就很难实现生产要素的优化组合和农业结构的合理配置,实现综合经济效益,也就难以调动和刺激农户增加投入的积极性。要做到既不违背中央的有关政策规定和广大农民的意愿,又能改变零碎分散,可行的办法就是利用和发挥转让费的微观调节作用。在农村实行土地有偿转让,符合我们的州情,对逐步推行规     

数字普惠金融与种地农户增收——来自种植业全生产链条赋能的证据

保障“种地”农户的金融供给和收入,既是普惠金融的应有之义,亦是共同富裕的关键所在,更是巩固粮食安全的根本之策。文章立足于数字普惠金融发展变化的典型事实,基于中国乡村振兴调查（CRRS）数据库中的微观农户数据,考察了数字普惠金融的发展对“种地”农户收入的影响,并从赋能种植业生产链的视角解构了其中的作用机制。研究表明,数字普惠金融近年的发展显著提高了农户的种植业收入,且这种影响主要来自数字普惠金融服务深度的增加;数字普惠金融对农户种植业收入的积极影响主要体现在粮食主产区和普通小农户样本中,在非粮食主产区和家庭农场的样本中并不显著;机制分析结果表明,数字普惠金融通过影响种植业生产链各环节的社会化服务购买,提高了土地生产效率,增加了农户的种植业收入,但这种作用机制在粮食主产区和普通小农户的样本中有所差异。文章的研究在一定程度上对深化农村数字普惠金融服务、保障“种地”农户收入和推进农业高质量发展提供了经验证据和政策启示。     

数字普惠金融对农户商业信用供给的影响

本文利用西南财经大学中国家庭金融调查与研究中心的“中国家庭金融调查”(CHFS)和浙江大学“中国家庭大数据库”(CFD)2017年与2019年两轮微观数据,实证检验了数字普惠金融对农户商业信用供给的影响及其机制。研究发现,数字普惠金融通过缓解农户信贷约束,降低农户商业信用供给成本,从而促进农户商业信用供给。数字普惠金融在补充农户外部流动性的同时,还减少了农户商业信用供给对自身流动性的占用。异质性分析发现,对于存在上下游纵向关联、生产经营多元化程度较低与非粮农产品占比较高的农户,数字普惠金融对其商业信用供给的影响更为显著。进一步分析发现,商业信用供给能够促进农户市场参与,并且数字普惠金融增强了农户使用商业信用参与市场的意愿,这有助于增加农户收入和提升农户福利水平。本文的研究结论表明,数字普惠金融通过增加农户商业信用供给,影响了农户与下游经营主体之间的要素配置,为数字普惠金融赋能农业生产经营与打通“最后一公里”提供了经验证据与政策启示。     

The effect of China's agricultural tax abolition on rural families' incomes and production

This paper uses the rural household panel data collected by Research Center for Rural Economy to evaluate the impacts of China's agricultural tax abolition during 2004–2005 on farmers' income and production behavior. We find that the abolition of agricultural tax did not significantly affect agricultural production. The effects on input use and productivity are also found statistically insignificant. All these are consistent with the lump-sum property of the tax and imply little effect of the tax abolition on relaxing credit constraints to farmers. Finally, we find that the tax abolition did not increase farmers' net income significantly.     

农民专业合作社对农户生产效益的影响——基于湖南葡萄种植行业的调研分析

以湖南长沙、岳阳、娄底、怀化、常德70家葡萄园农户的生产资料作为研究样本,对农民专业合作社与农户生产效益的关系进行研究,结果显示：农民专业合作社社员与非社员农户之间存在生产效益的差异,非社员在葡萄销售价格、每亩资金成本、每亩收入、每亩净收入这四个生产效益指标上都低于社员,体现出加入专业合作社的优越性。为鼓励更多农户入社,建议增加农民专业合作社示范点,并且增加对农民专业合作社特色农产品的扶持,使农业增产、农民增收,推动我国农业现代化进程。     

Farmers' Variety Attribute Preferences: Implications for Breeding Priority Setting and Agricultural Extension Policy in Ethiopia*

Abstract: Technological progress in Ethiopian agriculture is the slowest by any standard, with rather very poor capacity to address the nation's problems of low agricultural productivity, poverty, and resource degradation. This paper argues and attributes the low level of technology adoption and impact to the discrepancy between the farmers' needs and the attributes of technologies generated. The empirical evidences have been generated based on the analyses of coffee farmers' variety attribute preferences, taking coffee seedlings as production technologies. Attribute preferences of smallholder farmers are governed by their contextual household characteristics, institutional, and socioeconomic factors. According to the results, risk vulnerable farmers prefer seeds adaptable to their local conditions and varieties with stable yield attribute. On the contrary, farmers in more accessible areas and/or those who are less concerned in securing subsistence income levels opt for income maximizing attributes, namely, yield and marketability. The study results have also shown the mechanisms of how farmers' attribute preferences change with development‐oriented interventions. The paper demonstrates why and how policy‐makers should formulate context specific technology development and agricultural extension strategies.     

Marginal returns on Chinese agricultural technology transfer in Nigeria: Who benefits more?

Agricultural technology transfers are generally considered an effective means of solving persistently low yields in sub-Saharan Africa. This study assesses the impact of the Chinese agricultural training program on farmers' productivity and income using ex-post non-experimental data from Ogun State, Nigeria. Our empirical approach is based on marginal treatment effect models. We find that the returns for individuals who participated in Chinese agricultural technology training indicated a 68.5% increase in yield and a 45.3% increase in agricultural income. Furthermore, we show that the program targets farmers from advantaged backgrounds, who may benefit less from attending the program than disadvantaged farmers, who experience a lower incentive to participate. Finally, we suggest sufficient awareness and incentives to encourage highly resistant farmers to participate in such programmes.     

北京农户增收影响因素与对策研究

对北京农户收入面板数据及187户实地调研数据进行分析,得出农户收入稳步增长、增速平缓、农户收入以工资性收入为主、城乡收入差距大和各区之间农户收入差异大的结论以及存在着农户增收活力不足、经营收益低、财产性所得少、新型农业发展不足、农村人口老龄化、农民文化程度低和农民健康状况差的问题。认为深化农业农村改革、鼓励土地流转、改善人居环境、完善支农政策、推广医疗保险、吸引人才下乡和培育职业农民可增加农户收入。     

粮食价格、收入水准与城镇低收入人群保障

城镇居民是粮食的净消费者,粮食价格上涨其实际收入将下降。受制于收入水平,城镇低收入人群的各项商品仅能满足基本生活需求,粮食也不例外。当粮食价格上涨其能够获得的粮食及非粮商品将减少,粮食安全将会受到威胁。相对于价格补贴,收入补贴的政策成本更低,补贴资金的使用效率更高,改善城镇不同收入人群间收入差距的效果更好,因而,它是更好的政策选择。就收入补贴而言,等效用补贴又优于等量补贴。     

北京农户增收影响因素与对策研究

对北京农户收入面板数据及187户实地调研数据进行分析，得出农户收入稳步增长、增速平缓、农户收入以工资性收入为主、城乡收入差距大和各区之间农户收入差异大的结论以及存在着农户增收活力不足、经营收益低、财产性所得少、新型农业发展不足、农村人口老龄化、农民文化程度低和农民健康状况差的问题。认为深化农业农村改革、鼓励土地流转、改善人居环境、完善支农政策、推广医疗保险、吸引人才下乡和培育职业农民可增加农户收入。     

Factor reallocation and structural transformation implications of grain subsidies in China

Since agriculture has contributed significantly to China’s economic growth miracle, it is important to understand the contributions and determinants of agriculture related to different agricultural policies in structural transformation in China. However, as one of the most important agricultural policies in China, the effects of the grain subsidy policy on factor reallocation, economic growth, as well as agricultural and non-agricultural production have not been investigated systematically and comprehensively. The absence of using an economy-wide model to estimate the impacts of the grain subsidy policy in China leaves a vacuum in the policy-advising space. This research develops a dynamic single-country, multi-regional computable general equilibrium model of the Chinese economy to evaluate the historical impacts of the grain subsidy policy. Our results reveal that grain subsidies impede the efficiency of factor reallocation and economic structural transformation in China. However, grain subsidies promote grain production growth and temporarily reduce rural-urban income disparity. In order to achieve the long-term sustainable increase in rural income and to mitigate the rural-urban income gap, China needs to further develop its labor-intensive industries (e.g., services) to accommodate the large number of rural labor transfers. Moreover, the large-scale agricultural production and technology improvement in agriculture are the effective measures to ensure food security in China.     

西藏农牧区公共服务满意度评价和优化配置策略研究——基于乡村振兴战略视角

农牧民对公共服务的满意度评价是评估农牧区公共服务供给效率、提升公共服务水平的基础。以乡村振兴为研究视角,以西藏农牧区公共服务满意度评价为研究对象,通过146份问卷调查资料,对农牧民在安居工程、教育、医疗、就业、社会保障、基础设施建设和文体等7类公共服务的满意度进行分析,评估农牧区公共服务供给现状和需求满意度水平。结果表明,农牧民对公共服务一级指标和二级指标不同类型和不同项目之间的公共服务满意度有较大的差异,其中,农牧民对教育和安居工程类公共服务的满意度评价较高,对社会保障、基础设施建设类公共服务的满意度评价处于中等水平,对文体、就业和医疗类公共服务的满意度评价较低。据此,提出以人为本、阶梯式供给、利益表达和绩效评价等优化配置政策的创新思路。     

Impact of land tenure policy on agricultural investments in China: Evidence from a panel data study

The goal of this paper is to examine the impact of changes in China's rural land policy on agricultural investments. Dramatic changes occurred in China's rural land policies after 2000, including the extension of rural land contractual period, restriction of land reallocation among villages and villagers groups, elimination of agricultural taxes for responsibility land, and rapid development of rural land rental markets. These changes have given farmers more secure tenure on collectively controlled responsibility land and have strengthened farmers' income rights for responsibility lands, incentivizing them to increase their investments on responsibility lands. A panel data method was used to quantitatively investigate the impact of land policy changes on agricultural investment. We considered the application of organic fertilizer as an indicator for long-term agricultural investment, and compared the use of organic fertilizer between private plots and responsibility lands operated by the same household. The results showed that the difference in organic fertilizer use between private plots and responsibility land for the same household has become smaller from 2000 to 2008. Our findings suggest that recent changes in rural land policies have provided farmers incentives to increase land quality investment on their responsibility lands.