金融危机期间地方财政支出对经济增长的影响——基于省际面板数据的比较分析

采用省际面板数据,比较分析东南亚金融危机和国际金融危机期间各省区财政支出对经济增长的影响。研究表明,两次金融危机期间各省区的财政支出对经济增长的影响作用有所不同：同前期相比,国际金融危机期间社会保障支出对经济增长的影响仍为正效应,并且正效应明显变大;社会文教支出对经济增长的影响仍为微弱的负效应;而经济建设支出和行政管理支出对经济增长的影响则与之前相反,分别表现为不显著和显著的正效应。因此,优化财政支出结构应控制经济建设支出规模,继续加大社会保障支出,改善文教支出结构,从而提高其使用效率。     

金融危机下的世界建筑业与中国之应对

建筑业是世界各国的支柱产业之一,但金融危机已经给世界金融、经济乃至各国经济发展模式造成了严重冲击,各国建筑业也受到了极大影响。文章首先回顾了危机以来全球建筑业逐渐衰落的现状及其对中国建筑业的影响,然后着重分析了中国建筑业在应对危机中的举措及取得的相关成绩,指出中国建筑业在危机中表现的问题,并提出了中国建筑业可持续发展的对策建议。     

社会保障与成本竞争力的关系——中国与新加坡的比较研究

当前全球化的背景下,各国都在努力寻求社会保障与保持成本竞争力的平衡点,以期达到社会与经济的协调发展。文章通过对新加坡与中国社会保障与成本竞争力关系的比较研究,探讨了各种既能有助于建立和完善我们的各项社会保障制度,又能化解社保支出对我国经济成本竞争力的负面影响,并提出可以继续保持我国经济成本竞争力的相关措施。     

金融危机传染效应的实证研究

本文运用VAR系统方法,通过对危机前后7个国家外汇市场波动性之间的格兰杰因果和脉冲响应函数检验分析了金融危机的传染效应,得出结论:金融危机前的平稳期各国存在1对双向和4对单向因果关系;危机期,各国存在2对双向和3对单向因果关系,证明了危机传染的存在性;脉冲响应函数验证了各国之间危机传染的动态效应冲击强度比较大,持续时间增加.     

世界金融危机的演化及对策建议

在经济全球化的今天,一旦爆发全球性的金融危机,不管是发达国家还是发展中国家都会不可避免的受到世界金融危机的冲击和影响。文章以2008年美国次贷危机引发的全球金融危机为例,解释了它的演化及影响,并阐述了世界各国应对这次危机所采取的政策、措施及效果。在此基础上,总结出一些应对金融危机的对策和建议。     

金融危机下社会保障的政策选择

文章首先提出金融危机下社会保障政策选择的依据,并从社会保障总体水平、社会保障的个人福利效应、城乡弱势群体规模扩大,且城乡社会保障严重不均衡、金融危机下就业压力增大,劳动力市场价格下降等四个方面介绍了我国社会保障及社会环境一些基本情况。最后提出金融危机下我国社会保障政策选择建议:拓宽社会保障覆盖面,提高社会保障公平性;适度提高社会保障待遇,着力保障和改善民生;改革完善失业保险制度,推进公共就业服务;发展多层次社会保障体系,维护弱势群体的保障权益;统筹城乡社会保障,促进城乡经济社会协调发展。     

中国应对国际金融危机的评价与体制机制优势的比较

文章回顾了中国应对国际金融危机的全过程,通过目标一致法的评估显示:中国直面这场由美国所引发的金融危机挑战,在与世界各国同时面对的这场大考中,率先复苏,实现稳定增长,实现了主要宏观经济目标,交出了一份令世人瞩目和惊奇的答卷。通过中国与其他国家应对危机措施与结果的经验总结,文章从一个大脑、两只手机制、两条腿走路和两个积极性四个方面分析了具有中国特色的内在体制机制的比较优势。     

债务危机应对路径的美欧国际比较

金融危机后为刺激经济复苏,各国采取了非常态经济刺激计划,为债务危机埋下了隐患。美欧主权债务危机问题逐步升级,引起了世界各国的广泛关注。为应对此次债务危机,各国都相继采取了不同措施。本文列举了美欧各国应对危机的路径,并对其进行分析比较,在此基础上总结了债务危机给中国发展的几点启示。     

论国际金融危机的成因、影响与各国的应对及启示

国际金融危机的成因主要在于:房地产泡沫是危机的源头;金融衍生品过多掩盖了巨大风险;多重环节的利益链条断裂是危机的深层原因;美联储的宽松货币政策是危机的重要成因;对金融机构放松监管是导致危机的重要因素;金融全球化是危机传导的背景条件。在评估国际金融危机的影响与严重危害基础上,论述了世界各国和国际组织应对金融危机的做法,主要包括美国、欧盟、中国、日本、加拿大、俄罗斯、巴西、东南亚和国际组织对金融危机的应对,以及各国应对国际金融危机措施呈现的新变化,并对国际金融危机的主要启示进行总结分析。     

金融危机传染效应的实证研究

本文运用VAR系统方法,通过对危机前后7个国家外汇市场波动性之间的格兰杰因果和脉冲响应函数检验分析了金融危机的传染效应,得出结论：金融危机前的平稳期各国存在1对双向和4对单向因果关系;危机期,各国存在2对双向和3对单向因果关系,证明了危机传染的存在性;脉冲响应函数验证了各国之间危机传染的动态效应冲击强度比较大,持续时间增加。     

Withstanding financial crises: would trade partners help or hurt?

This article provides new empirical evidence on the losses of real activity caused by various financial shocks. Spillover effects due to foreign trade linkages deserve special attention. To this end, we estimate a modify auto-regressive process and a Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equations estimator is used to account for the dependency of one’s country growth on its trade-weighted partners growth. We run estimations on a set of currency collapses, banking crises and sovereign defaults in 49 advanced and developing countries from 1978 to 2011. The trade-weighted foreign demand effect mitigated the economic downturn following a banking or a sovereign debt crisis in all countries, while only the advanced ones benefited from it after a currency collapse. Trade-based spillover effects make banking crises more costly in the developing countries, in those that liberalize their financial account. It contrasts with what is observed during currency or sovereign debt crises.     

Crises and the International System

This paper reviews the recent experience of financial crises since 2007, including the continuing crisis in the euro zone. I seek to answer three main questions: In what respects (if any) is the recent experience of crises novel? How special is the euro crisis? And what changes in the international financial architecture can reduce the chances of future crises?     

Beliefs, Bailouts and Spread of Bank Panics

This article highlights the spread of bank panics across countries, as the public reassesses governments' propensity to bailouts. Policymakers decide whether to save collapsing banking systems by weighing social costs of crises against the costs associated with raising taxes to finance rescue packages. Policymakers know those social costs of bank liquidation whereas the public does not. In this setup, financial crises may result from the public's self‐fulfilling prophecies about equilibrium outcomes, as lenders' expectations impinge on the taxation cost of bailouts. It follows that a banking crisis in a country leads creditors to reexamine policymakers' willingness to bailouts in other countries, which eventually makes their banks more vulnerable to self‐confirming depositors' runs.     

A Comparative Study of Two Global Crises

This article identifies the differences and common features of two global crises: the Great Depression of 1929 and the international financial crisis of 2008. The circumstances of the two crises differ in terms of the demographic structure, the technological conditions, the economic and social systems in developed countries, the extent of globalization and other global economic situations. Among the common features, both crises were preceded by unprecedented economic booms, laisse-faire regulatory policies, easy monetary and credit policies, asset bubbles and yawning income gaps. Moreover, the crises had a strong redistribution effect, which would cause shifts of power among large countries and major changes in international economic order.     

Liberalization,Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis

This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.     

The impact of financial crises and tolerance for uncertainty

Financial crises can have severe negative effects on investment. One reason for this is that financial crises increase uncertainty, increasing the real option value of delaying investment. In this paper, we show that the negative effect of crises on investment differs significantly across countries: in countries with low tolerance for uncertainty, the negative effect is strong. The negative effect is absent in countries that are more tolerant of uncertainty. These findings are similar across different types of financial crisis; they vary as predicted across type of investor, asset and industry; and they are not driven by uncertainty-averse countries adopting more rigid institutions.     

后危机时代中国金融国际化发展趋向展望——基于金融安全的视角

2007年爆发的美国次贷危机逐步演变为全球性金融危机。在此背景下,金融国际化备受质疑。面对危机,应该客观地看待金融国际化与金融安全之间的关系。在后危机时代,为夯实国家金融安全基础,防范金融危机,中国不仅不应放慢金融国际化的步伐,反而应主动融入金融全球化的浪潮,进一步推进社会信用体系的国际化演进进程,以缩小国间制度落差;借世界金融格局变革之机,积极参与后危机时代的国际金融秩序重构,提升话语权;在遵循一定协调原则的前提下,主动参与货币政策的国际协调;强化金融监管的国际合作,联手防范金融风险的国际传递;紧跟国际监管趋势,宏观与微观审慎监管并举,构筑国家金融安全的监管防线。     

The effect of financial liberalization on banking sector stability

Several studies indicate that financial liberalization increases likelihood of a financial crisis without distinguishing between a normal period, unstable period preceding the onset of banking panics and crisis/post period. We explain in this paper the relationship between financial liberalization and banking sector vulnerability. Then, we argue that banking sector turmoil is most likely to occur after an intermediate degree of liberalization. Using a recently updated dataset for financial reforms, we find an inverted U-shaped relationship between liberalization and the likelihood of banking crisis for a sample of 49 countries between 1980 and 2010. We used a multinomial logit model in order to take into account what is called the ‘post crisis bias’. We ask whether the relationship remains when institutional characteristics of countries and dynamic effects of liberalization are considered. The empirical results indicate that the relationship between liberalization and banking sector stability depends strongly on the strength of capital regulation and supervision. With very weak regulation and supervision, the probability of banking crises is increasing with liberalization but this relationship is reversed as regulation and supervision become significant. The most important type of liberalization in relation to banking crises seems to be operational. A policy implication is that positive growth effects of liberalization can be achieved without increasing the risk of a banking fragility if appropriate institutions are developed.     

金融危机的积极作用与中国的机会

金融危机的影响具有负面与正面的双重性.人们较多地关注于此次金融危机的风险与挑战,而对其正面意义认识不足.本文在分析了金融危机在金融体系优化、产业结构调整、社保体系建立、国际关系再造等方面积极作用前提下,分两个方面讨论了金融危机中的发展机会.在金融方面,近年来经济与外汇储备的持续快速增长使我国具有了国际化发展的能力,而金融危机为我国金融业国际化发展提供了难得的机会.在制造方面,金融危机强化了我国制造中心的地位,促进了产业结构调整与产品体系升级,提供了国际化、规模化发展机会.