The Effect of Exchange Rate Changes on Geographic Segment Earnings of U.S.-Based Multinationals

This study examines the ability of exchange rate changes to aid in the explanation and prediction of the geographic segment earnings of U.S.-based multinational corporations. In order to evaluate the potential usefulness of geographic segment earnings disclosures, it is important to understand the effect that currency changes should be expected to have on these earnings. Two types of exchange rate effects are examined. These include the mechanical translation effects of an exchange rate change, as well as the operating effects. A sample of geographic segment earnings disclosures is developed for two geographic locations (Canada and Europe) and six industries in which adequate country-industry specific subsamples can be identified. Because the factors that impact exchange rate exposure tend to depend on country, industry, or both, provision is made for country, industry, and country-industry specific sensitivity to currency changes. Regressions and nonparametric analyses are performed to determine whether exchange rate changes can help explain the geographic segment earnings within these samples. Results indicate that the accounting-based translation effect that is typically modeled as the impact of exchange rate changes on earnings does not adequately capture the effect of exchange rate changes on segment earnings. Operating effects of past and current exchange rate changes do help explain earnings for geographic segments located in Europe and in four industries. Prediction models which are country or country-industry specific are able to outperform a random-walk prediction of geographic segment earnings in some circumstances.     

Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows

A number of recent studies have tested the impact of exchange rate volatility on trade flows, particularly for individual commodities, for various country pairs. These have found that risk can increase as well as decrease trade, but that oftentimes industries are not affected. This study examines trade between the United States and Spain over the period from 1962 to 2009, for 131 U.S. export industries and 88 import industries. We find that exchange rate volatility has short-run and long-run effects in only a fraction of the cases, but that exports respond more to increased uncertainty than imports do. In all, only 35 of the 74 U.S. export industries are affected (11 positive, 24 negative), whilst only three out of 37 import industries have positive coefficients and 11 have negative ones. We find no evidence that durable or nondurable goods are more likely to respond to volatility, whilst small industries or specialized goods might show more of a positive response.     

Multinational Corporations and Spillovers

This paper examines spillover effects of the activities of multinational firms. Such effects are most likely to be found in host countries, where the operations of foreign multinationals may influence local firms in the MNCs own industry as well as firms in other industries. However, there is no comprehensive evidence on the exact nature or magnitude of these effects, although it is suggested that host country spillovers vary systematically between countries and industries. In particular, the positive effects of foreign investment are likely to increase with the level of local capability and competition. The spillovers to the home countries of MNCs are often more difficult to identify, for various reasons. Earlier studies suggest that the effects are generally positive, but the increasing international division of labor within multinationals complicates the analysis. The impact on the home country is likely to depend on what activities these firms concentrate at home.     

International Leadership in Productivity at the Aggregate and Industry Level

Since many policies affect specific parts of economies differently, it is useful to decompose GDP per capita differences across countries into differences across smaller and smaller parts of economies. In this paper, we summarize recent contributions in this area and fit them together into a decomposition procedure for GDP per capita differences. The overall finding is that the U.S. is the productivity leader for the most of the economy. Moreover, international productivity differences at the aggregate level of the economies are in most cases translated into differences in the productivity of industries, at least compared to the productivity leader U.S. The variability of productivity differences at the industry level is, however, substantially higher than any differences at the aggregate or sector level. For the manufacturing sector alone the U.S. and Japan share the leadership on the industry level. In contrast, France, U.K., and Germany exhibit almost no leadership in productivity at the industry level. Hence, nation-specific factors appear to be dominant in the comparison of European countries with the U.S. Finally, mix differences do not play a very large role for big countries. For Germany, however, the mix effect can help to reconcile relative high productivity for the market economy and lower productivity at disaggregated levels.     

The exchange rate and machinery and equipment imports: Identifying the impact of import source and export destination country currency valuation changes

This paper presents estimates of the impact of exchange rate movements on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports. Many countries have become increasingly reliant on imports of these types of products and evidence in a number of studies indicates that investment in machinery and equipment contributes to improved productivity and growth. Unlike previous studies, this study differentiates between exchange rate movements with respect to machinery and equipment import source and final good export destination countries. Data are employed for two machinery and equipment importing countries, Australia and Canada, and two exporting countries, Japan and the U.S. The results indicate that a currency depreciation with respect to an import source country has a significant negative effect on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports, while a depreciation with respect to a domestic final good export destination country has a significant positive effect. These findings imply that the net impact on the quantity of machinery and equipment imports of an exchange rate change with respect to a particular country will depend on the extent to which that country is a supplier of machinery and equipment imports and a market for domestic exports.     

Pricing-to-market in U.S. imports and exports: A time series and cross-sessional study

This paper provides a comparative study of how U.S. imports and exports prices react to exchange rate changes. It finds, through time series analyses, that while both U.S. and foreign exporters price to market, foreign exporters in general absorb a large portion of exchange rate changes by themselves while U.S. exporters pass through most of the exchange rate change to foreign currency prices. Pricing behavior of U.S. imports and, to a lesser extent, of U.S. exports varies across industries and such variation relates to industry characteristics such as market shares, product d differentiation, and capital-to-labor ratio.     

The effect of exchange rate volatility on U.S. bilateral trade with Africa: A symmetric and asymmetric analysis

The impact of exchange rate volatility on U.S. trade with the world or on U.S. trade with major partners has been assessed by many researchers, but none have considered the case of U.S. trade with African nations. We fill this gap by assessing the symmetric and asymmetric impact of the real bilateral exchange rate volatility between the U.S. dollar and each African partner’s currency on the U.S. trade flows with each of the 20 partners from Africa. We found asymmetric short-run effects of exchange rate volatility on almost all U.S. exports to and imports from each of the 20 countries. In addition, significant long-run asymmetric effects were discovered in the case of U.S. exports to 15 countries and U.S. imports from 12 countries. Our findings are partner-specific.     

Do natural disasters and geopolitical risks matter for cross-border country exchange-traded fund returns?

This paper examines whether U.S. and home country geopolitical risks (GPRs) and disasters matter for the returns from cross-border trading of country exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by employing a quantile regression approach. Using monthly returns of 125 country-specific ETFs traded in the U.S. from 38 countries over the period 2004–2018, we find that the highest averages of total deaths, total damage values, total affected, and GPRs are all in developing countries. United States disasters have comparatively more significant impacts than home country disasters on ETF returns as does the salient influences of U.S. investor sentiments, supporting the market sentiment hypothesis. Moreover, U.S. and home country GPRs and disasters also have predictive power on returns. The contemptuous effects and predictive powers of GPRs and disasters are asymmetric across quantiles. The influences of home country GPRs are more salient than the GRPS of U.S., implying that ETFs can be a safe haven during U.S. geopolitical risks. Additionally, our results show that the impacts of disasters on returns can be negative and/or positive, implying the possibility of disasters exuding an impetus and/or risk to country ETFs.     

中、美、日实际均衡汇率模型的构建及实证研究

本文基于BEKK-MGARCH模型建立了中、美、日三国的实际均衡汇率方程和方差方程,对1994年以来中国、美国和日本的实际均衡汇率及其波动溢出效应进行了深入细致的分析。结果表明:三个国家的实际均衡汇率受其经济基本面因素的影响不同,人民币实际均衡汇率还受到了美元和日元实际汇率的影响;中美、中日、美日之间的联动关系存在显著的ARCH和GARCH效应。     

美国振兴先进制造业的政策措施及启示

从20世纪70年代开始,美国制造业的大批量生产模式开始走下坡路。日本经济的兴起,以丰田汽车为代表的日本汽车工业新的生产和管理模式的成功,向世界表明大批量生产的威力已到了尽头。为振兴先进制造业,美国分别从技术、财政、信息网络、教育、企业运作模式、企业联盟等方面制定了一系列政策与计划,对其进行支持。美国所采取的这些政策措施,对于我国在“十一五”规划中如何更有效促进先进制造业的发展,具有重要的启示。     

试论中国文化对实施PARTNERING模式的影响

Partnering模式于20世纪80年代起源于美国,目前已经在美国、澳大利亚、日本、欧洲、新加坡以及中国香港的建筑界得到了广泛使用。业界人士普遍认可Partnering模式的优势,如:有利于改善项目参与各方之间的关系,有利于降低工程费用、缩短工期、提高工程质量、减少合同纠纷和诉讼方面,收益非常明显。从本质而言,Partnering模式是古老的“握手”式的商业模式,这种模式在全世界,特别是在东方获得广泛的应用。本文旨在讨论中国文化及其对实施Partne- ring模式的影响。研究结果表明,中国文化与Partnering模式的一些要素吻合,因此能够促进其在建筑界的实施。     

Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading,financial uncertainties,and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis

This paper investigates the dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading (CET), financial uncertainties, and Chinese stocks in different industries over the period from 19th December 2013 to 21st March 2022. We utilized a novel quantile framework including rolling window quantile regression method, quantile-on-quantile method, and causality-in-quantiles method to implement this research more comprehensively and accurately. Our contributions and findings, empirical in nature, are as follows: (i) In the early establishing stage of the carbon market, with a bullish market situation, carbon emission trading has a negative impact on most industry stocks. In the developing and improving stage of the carbon market, different industries have different impact situations. (ii) We find that the effects of financial uncertainty on stocks are stronger than CET on stocks. We also find that the dependence structures between CET, financial uncertainty, and industry stocks are asymmetric in most industries, and there are many mutation structures with significant risks in extreme situations. (iii) Carbon emissions trading, crude oil volatility, and US stock volatility all have strong causal relationships with Chinese industry stocks. (iv) We also provide policy suggestions to relevant countries to balance carbon market and stock markets and avoid risks from financial uncertainty in different industries.     

International trade and the U.S. wage structure

Politicians are concerned about the effects of increased foreign trade on U.S. workers. Data from 1978 to 1987 are used to appraise the impact of foreign trade on U.S. manufacturing wages. The results indicate that wages are positively associated with a sector’s level of international comparative advantage. However, this follows from other characteristics aside from the net trade balance. These characteristics may include rent sharing or international technological convergence. Imports and exports also influence wages, where this impact varies with the industry’s unionization. Regardless, the results suggest that greater trade is not a major cause of the decline in U.S. real wages.     

我国玩具产品主要出口国技术法规的研究

我国是世界上最大的玩具制造国,近几年美国、欧盟等国家相继出台玩具产品的新法案,我国制造的玩具频频遭退回,出口遇到新障碍。文章从我国玩具出口国技术法规对我国玩具出口贸易的影响出发,对我国主要的出口国美国、欧盟、日本和加拿大的技术法规进行了概括和评析,并探讨了出口国技术法规对我国技术法规的构建和应对技术性贸易壁垒的启示。     

The Australia-United States Free Trade Agreement: An economic evaluation

A bilateral Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between Australia and the United States came into effect on 1st January 2005. Since the U.S. is one of the main trading partners for Australia, it was anticipated that the FTA would bring a substantial increase in Australia's bilateral trade with the United States. It would also have important implications for Australia's other main trading partners such as Japan, and China. This paper seeks to provide a quantitative assessment of the impact of the FTA by undertaking simulations using the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model. By simulating the GTAP multi-country CGE model, the paper evaluates various economy-wide effects, sectoral level effects, and trade diversion and trade creation effects in the two countries in response to bilateral free trade. It will also identify the effects on trading partners outside the FTA. The results will provide a preliminary indication of the magnitude of welfare gains involved.     

Do U.S. and Japanese uncertainty shocks play important roles in affecting transition mechanisms of Japanese stock market?

This research investigates the impacts of U.S. and Japanese uncertainty shocks on the transition mechanisms of the Japan stock market dynamics by utilizing the Markov-switching GARCH-jump model with a time-varying transition probability matrix and analyzes the economic policy uncertainty shock of Japan, the economic policy uncertainty shock of the U.S., and the uncertainty shock about the U.S. equity market volatility. The empirical results demonstrate that the Japan stock market responds to most shocks with the exception of the U.S. economic policy uncertainty shock. The equity market volatility shock of the U.S. plays a more crucial role than the economic policy uncertainty shock of Japan. Furthermore, an increase in the U.S. equity market volatility shock reveals totally different signals in different volatile states. It signals an adverse belief about the Japan stock market in a high-volatile state, but signals an optimism viewpoint about the Japan stock market in a low-volatile state. Finally, the impact of the uncertainty shock about the U.S. stock market volatility is stronger in a high-volatile market than in a low-volatile market.     

U.S. Competitive Position and Capital Investment Flows in the Economic Citizen Market:

ABSTRACT Many countries hail economic citizenship as the new mechanism for encouraging capital mobility and economic development. Economic citizenship is the process of granting citizenship or residency to foreign individuals who have investment capital that will create jobs for citizens in the immigrant receiving country. Many developing and developed countries, including the Commonwealth of Dominica and Belize, Canada, Australia, and the United States, have embraced this concept with hopes of massive capital inflows to their countries. While this investment measure has been successful in a few countries, the U.S. has only been able to attract less than 10% annually of the targeted number of investors through this strategy. The U.S. has been further from its targeted annual allocation of visas than Dominica and Canada. The Economic Citizenship Program has less potential of affecting a small nation's levels of investment than a large one's. A number of socio-political and economic reasons, including program cost and social adjustment, cause a slow influx of new immigrants and investments to the U.S.     

基于钻石模型的我国船舶产业竞争力分析

我国的船舶产业作为推动我国经济增长的一个重要支撑点,其发展的程度影响着其他相关产业的发展,也影响着我国整体经济在国际上的竞争力。然而我国的船舶产业在最近这几年虽然得到了较快发展,但与世界上先进的发达国家相比却存在差距,文中运用钻石模型分析目前我国船舶产业竞争力的影响因素,最后根据分析结果提出相应的结论建议。     

The measurement and transmission of macroeconomic uncertainty: Evidence from the U.S. and BRIC countries

We propose a new measure of macroeconomic uncertainty that incorporates a rich information set from U.S. SPF density forecasts. Our measure has two key advantages over traditional measures: (i) it reflects the subjective perceptions of market participants; and (ii) it is an ex ante measure that does not require a knowledge of realized outcomes. We study the features of this measure of macroeconomic uncertainty and explore its impact on real economic activities within the U.S., as well as its spillover effects for BRIC countries.     

Impact of sequence of international entries on country exits

A classic model of international entries—the Uppsala model—postulated that firms enter foreign countries in increasing order of psychic distance between the home and the host country to minimize the risk of failure. A question that was left unanswered was whether this sequence of entry results in any performance benefits. Literature on the impact of psychic distance, or its components like culture distance, on the performance of foreign operations abounds but the order of entry that is critical to the Uppsala model remains conspicuously absent. This paper presents an analysis of foreign country entries and exits by the U.S. multinationals in the manufacturing and service sectors since 1965. Companies that enter foreign countries in increasing order of culture distance do gain a significant performance advantage over those who do not. Changes over time and across industry sectors are discussed.