点评中国奶业迷局

一、我国奶业发展态势1.乳品需求快速增长,奶业已成为新的经济增长点。改革开放是我国奶业迅速发展的第一次机遇。从1978年到1998年的20年间,我国奶类总产量增长了7.7倍,年均递增10.7%。随着人民收入水平的提高和饮食习惯向营养化方向的转变,尤其是我国加入世界贸易组织后,我国奶业迎来了第二次发展机遇,也进入了一个更高速发展的时期。据2002年的《工业统计年报》显示,1998年到2002年中国奶制品的产量几乎增长了一倍。而根据国家统计局统计快报,2002年奶制品产量比上年增长25.6%,其中液体奶产量更是达到了65.8%的惊人增长速度。中国奶业市…     

我国奶业的生态化道路

本文在分析我国目前奶业现状的基础上，提出解决中国奶业发展中面临的污染问题与生态问题，提出了走奶业的可持续发展道路，是 我国奶业发展面临的一个重要问题。     

化蛹成蝶:中国奶业劫后重生

中国奶业经历了2008年的奶业低潮后,2009年将是其涅槃重生之年。在当前经济环境下,中国奶业必须经过一番阵痛,方能化蛹成蝶,有更加卓越的奶业代表脱颖而出。     

声音

如果我们的检测标准明天就向国外看齐。那80％的牛奶得倒掉。奶农要破产。我国大多数消费者也就喝不到牛奶了。——内蒙古奶业协会常务理事叠誓表达了这一观点后，有人认为体现了中国奶业的现实，也有人质疑称“这是以国情为借口掩盖行业利益”     

国内外奶业发展形势分析及展望

“三鹿奶粉事件”余波未了,金融危机的大规模爆发,对中国奶业发展几乎是灭顶之灾,中国奶业生产、加工、消费等产业链各环节矛盾凸显,问题尖锐,问题解决迫在眉睫。国际市场,奶粉价格上涨拉动乳品市场逐渐复苏,南半球乳品主要输口国的出口量同比大幅下降,欧盟、新西兰、美国等乳品主要输出地的原奶收购价格出现下降。国际国内两个市场复苏的内动力明显不足,奶业发展形势不容乐观。     

中国奶业发展的产业主体分析

首先从奶类的自然属性、政府和加工企业以及合作社对奶业发展的作用等几个方面着手对奶业进行了分析，指出当前促进我国奶业发展的决定性力量是加工企业；然后，通过对我国各乳品加工企业的行业份额和奶类安全性要求较高等特点的分析，得出乳品加工大中企业是奶业发展的中坚力量；最后，通过对乳品加工小企业与大企业的对比和分析，得出乳品加工小企业是大企业提高竞争力和低成本扩张的基础。     

太子奶事件大事记

一度深陷“资金链断裂”风波的湖南太子奶集团生物科技发展有限责任公司（以下简称太子奶），今年初被湖南株洲国资背景的高科奶业接手托管，太子奶创始人李途纯以将股权抵押给高科奶业的方式暂得喘息之机。而今，双方却因股权、经营权问题发生龃龉。包括李途纯在内的股东近日发布公告称，此前与高科奶业的托管协议因对方违约终止，“太子奶集团恢复行使一切权利”。     

中国乳业引发牛奶“泡沫”？

伊利5名高管落马，除了让人注意上市公司的资本运作问题，还让人们开始关注起可能形成泡沫经济的中国乳业。近年来，我国乳业发展十分红火，“奶业兴农”、“奶业兴市”、“中国乳都”等口号和概念层出不穷，“奶源大战”、“奶牛价格大战”、“广告大战”、“保鲜奶与还原奶大战”打得人们眼花缭乱。然而，一方面奶源数字不清，一方面是消费市场有限，加上过度投资的乳业建设，中国乳业如果还是照着现在的无序发展趋势，极有可能形成—个“牛奶泡沫”。     

推动奶业快发展努力建设新农村

丰润奶业的发展已经具有一定基础，基本形成了产业化发展格局，成为强区富民的特色主导产业。一是龙头企业带动能力不断增强。在乐百氏、均瑶等知名乳品企业先后在丰润安家落户的基础上，引进建设了总投资3．5亿元的蒙牛液态奶项目，9条乳品加工生产线的自控化程度为国内最高，主导产品酸酸乳的奶质口感列蒙牛集团第一位。这一项目的成功引进，为全区乃至全市奶牛养殖拓展了极大的发展空间，标志着丰润奶业进入了一个新的发展阶段。目前，全区奶业龙头企业已达8家，日处理鲜奶能力突破1400吨。二是奶业标准化生产扎实推进。针对加工企业对优质奶源的需要，     

充分利用入世机遇 大力发展外向型农业

发展外向型农业是利用入世机遇、增强中国农业竞争力的内在要求。本文探讨了入世后中国农业面临的发展机遇，分析了中国农业的比较优势，对利用入世机遇，发挥比较优势，大力发展外向型农业提出了对策建议。     

Imbalances over the Pacific

This paper examines various theories of current account (trade) imbalances between the U.S. and China, by estimating a structural VAR model with long-run zero restrictions. The factors that we examine include: productivity differential, fiscal policy, consumption/saving choice, and real and nominal demand side factors comprising monetary policy, and reserve accumulation. On average, technology shocks are found to play a dominant role in explaining the trade balance movement between China and the U.S. However, in the particular period of 2004–07 when global imbalances peaked, we find that demand shocks played an unusually large role. This contrast between the average tendency and the rather abnormal development in the mid-2000s provides general equilibrium evidence for several theories of current account (trade) balance imbalance. But it also shows that the experience of the mid-2000s does not have to repeat itself, given that it was an atypical development different from the average tendency.     

Medical consumption over the life-cycle

We investigate the association between age and medical spending in the U.S. using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. We estimate a partially linear seminonparametric model and construct “pure” life-cycle profiles of health spending simultaneously controlling for time effects (i.e., institutional changes and business cycles effects) and cohort effects (i.e., generation specific conditions). We find that time and cohort effects together introduce a significant estimation bias into predictions of health expenditures per age group, especially for individuals older than 60 years. The estimation bias introduced by cohort effects increases monotonically with age while the bias due to time effects is not significant. The overall effect of Medicare on the cohort and time effects biases is negligible.     

Entrepreneurship over the business cycle

The fraction of self-employed rises in recessions because wage work is more sensitive than self-employment to the business cycle, not because of necessity entrepreneurship. Graduating during a recession reduces the probability of starting a business for the next 11 years.     

惠普康柏合并纠纷

最近以来,国内不断出现对上市公司有关大股东与公司管理层或其它股东或外来投资者出现矛盾的报道。关于公司董事会的作用和制衡因素的讨论也逐渐深入。恰巧,在中国已经耳熟能详的两家美国信息产业巨头惠普和康柏在宣布合并后出现了戏剧性的大股东与董事会的对立,为我们提供了一个很好的案例。     

跨越绿色贸易壁垒

绿色贸易壁垒严重阻碍我国外贸出口,有必要了解绿色贸易壁垒产生的原因及其法律依据,认真研究其对我国外贸的不利影响。通过采取加大推广绿色增长模式的力度,充分利用世贸组织机制,解决环境贸易纠纷;积极开展环境认证;建立有利于生态环境的进出口产品结构等措施,以进一步扩大出口。     

Optimal taxation over the life cycle

We derive the optimal labor income tax schedule for a life cycle model with deterministic productivity variation and complete asset markets. An individual chooses whether and how much to work at each date. The government must finance a given expenditure and does not have access to lump sum taxation. We develop a solution method that uses the primal approach to solve for the optimal non-linear tax function. The average tax rate determines when an individual will work while the marginal tax rate determines how much she will work. Even in the absence of redistributive concerns, the optimal tax schedule has an increasing average tax rate at low levels of income to encourage labor market participation. The marginal tax rate at the top is strictly positive. Finally, the model is used to assess the effects of changing the current tax schedule to the optimal one. Under the preferred parameters, this delivers a welfare gain equivalent to 0.67 percent of lifetime consumption.     

Asset inequality over the life cycle

This note seeks to explain an interesting empirical regularity in the inequality of asset holdings stratified by the age of individuals. The regularity, which has evidently been overlooked, is that Gini coefficients of assets follow a U-shaped pattern over the life cycle. This pattern spans more than a century of diverse survey data from the United States. The theoretical explanation of the regularity is based on the hypothesis that inherited assets are intrinsically more unequal than accumulated savings, and that bequests are intrinsically more unequal than lifetime consumption. Shifts in the relative importance of inherited assets and bequest would then explain changes in the inequality of total assets.     

Re-employment probabilities over the business cycle

Using a Cox proportional hazard model that allows for a flexible time dependence in order to incorporate business cycle effects, we analyze the determinants of re-employment probabilities of young workers in the USA from 1978–1989. We find considerable changes in the chances of young workers finding jobs over the business cycle despite the fact that personal characteristics of those starting jobless spells do not vary much over time. Therefore, government programs that target specific demographic groups may change individuals’ positions within the queue of job seekers, but may only have a more limited impact on average re-employment probabilities. Living in an area with high local unemployment reduces re-employment chances as does being in a long spell of non-employment. However, the damage associated with being in a long spell seems to be reduced somewhat if a worker is unemployed in an area with high overall unemployment.

Preferences over characteristics and utility functions over commodities

Following Lancaster, preferences are defined over a set of characteristics, while commodities vectors are transformed into characteristics by a production function. We assume that both the preferences over the characteristics and the production functions are “neoclassical” and we characterize the set utility functions over the consumption space derived as the composition of preferences over characteristics and production functions. We prove that, under regularity conditions, any function can be derived by such a composition. Thus, the theories of characteristics does not impose any restrictions on derived utility functions. We thank an anonymous referee for helpful suggestions. The research of Aldo Rustichini was supported by the NSF grant NSF/SES-0136556. Paolo Siconolfi acknowledges the support of the Graduate School of Business, Columbia University.