A simple model of macroeconomic policy

This paper develops a simple model of macroeconomic policy in which the government minimizes a loss function with inflation and unemployment as arguments, subject to a Phillips curve constraint. The model is solved and a discrete time approximation taken. The model's empirical predictions are derived and some test results are presented.     

MANAGEMENT BEHAVIOUR AND A THEORY OF DIVERSIFICATION

This paper investigates the basis for a behavioural theory of diversification. A theory of diversification may be required (i) for full analysis of competitive processes, which include innovation and cross-entry competition, and (ii) to understand the selection of diversification projects in individual firms. Alternative optimising and non-optimising models are feasible. The choice between these alternatives will be considered after the non-optimising model has been developed.
Section I outlines the basic model and the general predictions which it generates. In section II the predictions are subjected to a coarse test, which is taken to justify further investigation of the model's properties. The model is developed more fully in section III.     

Structural models, information and inherited restrictions

The derived structural estimates of the system βY = γZ + δU impose identifying restrictions on the reduced form estimates ex post. Some or all of the derived structural estimates are presented as evidence of the model's efficacy. In fact, the reduced form inherits a great deal of information from the structure's restrictions and hypothesized sign patterns, limiting the allowable signs for the reduced form. A method for measuring a structural model's statistical information content is proposed. Further, the paper develops a method for enumerating the allowable reduced form outcomes which can be used to falsify the proposed model independently of significant coefficients found for the structural relations.     

Topics in nonparametric comparative statics and stability

This paper presents the analysis of the Jacobian matrix of a small, macroeconomic model to determine the robustness of the model's comparative statics. The values of the model's coefficients are assessed with respect to seven alternative estimation strategies such as ordinary least squares or two-stage least squares. For each alternative version, the invertibility and stability of the Jacobian matrix is studied. The model is robust to the degree that these characteristics are shared by any matrix with the same sign pattern or other similar nonparametric conditions on its entries. One way to address the relative success of the different estimation strategies is through the robustness of the comparative statics of the resulting model.     

Transforming radiology's workplace: Roentgen marries up with the digital world of IT and the Internet

Driven by technological developments in both medical imaging and information technology (IT), various institutional, demographic, and economic factors are making the teleradiology model increasingly attractive relative to the traditional radiology model that has been in place for the most part since medical imaging began. The emergence of teleradiology in the medical imaging industry is transforming the way radiologists do their work, and this paper shows why and how this is occurring. It further identifies a variety of issues that have arisen or are arising and their possible resolutions as radiologists engage in integrating their professional work with the new and novel settings (including radiology on-line) that recent developments in combining imaging and information technologies are creating.     

基于PSO的个人信用评估组合预测模型

将组合预测模型用于个人信用评估,在两种单一统计模型的基础上,利用粒子群算法（PSO）求解组合模型的权重,并通过粒子适应度函数的设置来控制第二类误判的发生,构建了基于PSO的组合预测模型。应用结果表明,基于PSO的组合预测模型的分类精度高于单一统计模型,并且有效降低了第二类误判率,对于商业银行控制信用风险具有更好的适用性。     

Accounting for technical substitution in the input-output model

Input-output analysis is a general equilibrium economic model that is being applied with increasing frequency to situations in which the input patterns of various economic activities are bound to change. Applications of the model in this context unduly strain the model's customary assumption of fixed coefficients, an assumption which precludes the substitution of inputs in production processes. The focus here is on the development of a general procedure for incorporating input substitution under various sets of conditions into the input-output model.     

A graphical exposition of a more complete Keynesian system

This paper uses an expanded version of the widely cited Smith model to show the classical natural rate of interest and employment results as a special case of a more general Keynesian model. The model's equilibrium level of employment and real interest rate depend on the inflation rate. The classical results apply to changes in the price level while the Keynesian results apply to changes in the inflation rate. The model assumes inflation is anticipated in equilibrium. Violation of the classical results does not depend on market imperfections such as sticky prices or information costs.     

A coopetitive model for the green economy

The paper proposes a coopetitive model for the Green Economy. It addresses the issue of the climate change policy and the creation and diffusion of low-carbon technologies. In the present paper the complex construct of coopetition is applied at macroeconomic level. The model, based on Game Theory, enables us to offer a set of possible solutions in a coopetitive context, allowing to find a Pareto solution in a win–win scenario. The model, which is based on the assumption that each country produces a level of output which is determined in a non-cooperative game of Cournot-type and that considers at the same time a coopetitive strategy regarding the low technologies, will suggest a solution that shows the convenience for each country to participate actively to a program of low carbon technologies within a coopetitive framework to address a policy of climate change, thus aiming at balancing the environmental imbalances.     

International transmission of the business cycle in a multi-sector model

Standard multi-country models do not replicate important features of the international transmission of business cycles, predicting cross-country correlations of output and consumption which are, respectively, too low and too high. In this paper we modify the supply side of a two-country model by adding multiple sectors and trade in intermediate goods. The model generates a higher cross-country correlation of output than standard one-sector models. It also predicts cross-country correlations of employment and investment that are closer to the data. We analyze the relative impact of multiple sectors, trade in intermediate goods, imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign goods, home preference, capital adjustment costs, and capital depreciation in order to pinpoint the features which move the model's predictions closer to the data.     

Bargaining power, effective demand and technical progress: a Kaleckian model of growth

Following the Kaleckian tradition, this paper presents a demand-ledgrowth model in which the distribution of income is fully endogenised.This is done by introducing claims on income by workers andfirms. The bargaining power of these two groups affects, throughdistribution, the patterns of accumulation and inflation. Inturn, the bargaining power of workers is affected by the rateof change of employment. The paper discusses the model's static and dynamic implications,including the effects of exogenous and induced technical progress.The model confirms all the typical Kaleckian results, includingthe fact that increases in real wages may lead to acceleratingaccumulation as well as inflation. It also produces a new result:it is possible that an increase in the rate of change of labourproductivity may not lead to an increase in the rate of changeof employment.     

Socioeconomic modeling: Selecting an appropriate strategy

The simulation strategies of econometrics, system dynamics, and cross-impact analysis have been alternately offered to policymakers over the years. The fact that proponents have tended to glorify their own model's merits and devalue the others has led to confusion and difficulties in making an objective, well-guided selection among them. This paper attempts to cut through the jungle of arguments and counterarguments and to reduce them to their essential elements. The paper then demonstrates that each model presents a unique version of a problem and that these versions are not necessarily competitive. Finally, a guide to modeling selection for policymakers is developed.     

North-South trade with increasing product variety

We present a model of one-way product cycles in international trade. Firms develop new product varieties in technologically advanced countries (the North), other firms copy these products in less developed countries (the South) and all shifts in production go from North to South. What distinguishes this paper from the earlier literature are the model's implications for economic growth and wage determination. Economic growth is characterized by weak scale effects, in contrast to the strong scale effects in the earlier literature. The model can also account for large North-South wage differences for plausible parameter values.     

“互联网+”战略下企业技术创新与商业模式创新协同发展路径研究

互联网的迅猛发展,给各行各业带来了机遇与挑战,新技术、新模式、新业态不断涌现,迫切要求企业在“互联网+”策略下从技术创新与商业模式创新协同的角度打造核心能力。通过对小米科技有限责任公司典型案例的研究,运用扎根理论三级编码逐次提炼标签、概念、初始范畴、主范畴、核心范畴。在此基础上,探索“互联网+”战略下技术创新与商业模式创新的互动关系,并总结出“互联网+”战略下两者协同发展的路径：市场机会识别—价值主张创新—技术创造性模仿创新—商业模式‘营销—盈利—运作’三模块持续创新—技术渐进性自主/合作创新。     

Friction model and foreign exchange market intervention

The friction model is consistent with the hypothesis that a central bank intervenes in a foreign exchange market only if the necessity grows beyond certain thresholds. For this feature, the model is adopted in some recent studies as an attractive central bank reaction function. However, with official data on Federal Reserve and Bundesbank intervention, this paper shows that the friction model's advantage relative to a linear model may be negligible in terms of RMSE and MAE of in-sample fitting and out-of-sample forecasts. The implication is that intervention decisions are at the monetary authorities' discretion rather than dictated by a rule.     

A model of the free-entry producer cooperative

One of the most frequent criticisms of the Illyrian model of the labour-managed firm is that it does not take into account key institutional factors which are likely in practice to eliminate the perverse short-run supply and degeneration results well known in the literature. This paper presents a new model of the labour-managed firm, incorporating several of the most significant institutional factors actually in evidence in Western cooperative sectors. The free-entry producer cooperative model includes differing member and nonmember compensation methods, free access to membership, and special capital financing and shutdown rules. The new model's results differ from Ward's Illyrian firm model in a number of ways: first, capital is always variable for these firms, so the perverse short-run supply response does not apply; second, free-entry producer cooperatives do not degenerate into capitalist firms as Illyrian firms do; and third, such cooperatives will always have higher survival rates than both Illyrian and conventional firms.     

Banking crises in monetary economies

Abstract.  This paper analyzes the effect of inflation on banking crises in a model in which money and banks play essential roles. The model's equilibrium replicates some key features of actual banking crises, namely, the partial suspension of payments and the desire to hold cash even in the absence of pressing liquidity needs. When banks have access to a stable foreign currency, inflation has a threshold effect on banking crises: higher inflation reduces the likelihood of crises when inflation is below the threshold; the reverse happens when inflation exceeds the threshold. This result appears to be broadly consistent with available evidence.     

National capacities to absorb and institutionalize external science and technology

This article describes a conceptual model of kechnology absorption and adaptation leading to a country's export-based conipetitiveness in high-technology products, and the results of the model's application to empirical data on 29 countries. The model is one output of a recently-completed, five-year investigation of indicators of high-technology development. The model's seven conceptual variables were operationalized by combining statistical data with expert-derived measures to produce composite indicators.

The seven indicators include four “leading” or infact indicators that are expected to be predictive of a nation's competitiveness, in high-techndogy products i n approximately 15 years, and three output indicators of current competitiveness: world market share, national emphasis on high technology products for export, and recent rate of change in world market share. Extensive assument of the validity and reliability of the indicators leads to the conclusion that the model is a useful tool, for both policy and research.     

Market Integration,Choice of Technology,and Welfare

This paper develops an international trade model where firms in a duopoly may diversify their technologies for strategic reasons. The firms face the same set of technologies given by a tradeoff between marginal costs and fixed costs, but depending on trade costs firms may choose different technologies. Market integration may induce a technological restructuring where firms either diversify their technologies or switch to a homogeneous technology. In general, market integration improves welfare. However, a small decrease of trade costs which induces a switch from heterogeneous technologies to a homogeneous technology may locally reduce global welfare. The model also shows that productivity differences lead to intra‐industry firm heterogeneity in size and exports similar to the “new–new” trade models with monopolistic competition.