Post Keynesians and Others

I begin by considering four alternative positions on the correct relationship between Post Keynesians and mainstream economics: opposition, cooperation, neglect and stealth; I argue that sustained opposition is the only viable strategy. Next I discuss the appropriate relationship between Post Keynesians and mainstream dissenters, concluding that relatively little can be expected to come from it. I then assess the link between Post Keynesians and other schools of heterodox economics, which I consider to be one of friendly pluralism rather than fundamental unity. I conclude that Post Keynesians should remain open to ideas from other heterodox traditions, and might also benefit from becoming more inter-disciplinary.     

Expected utility theory and experimental utility measurement, 1950–1985. From confidence to scepticism

Abstract

The paper reconstructs the history of the experimental attempts to measure the cardinal utility of money between 1950 and 1985 within the framework provided by expected utility theory (EUT). It is shown that this history displays a definite trajectory: from the confidence in EUT and the EUT-based measurement of utility of the 1950s to the scepticism that, from the mid-1970s, haunted the validity of EUT as well as the significance of the utility measures obtained through it. By exploring the diverse aspects and causes of this trajectory, the paper covers new ground in the history of both decision theory and utility measurement.     

A tale of two traditions: Pierre Force's Self-interest before Adam Smith

Abstract

The paper compares different strands of New Keynesian Economics with regard to Keynes' original work. Two issues are analysed in detail. First, the explanations provided by Keynes and New Keynesians of nominal and real wage behaviour. Second, the different theories concerning the ability of flexible nominal wages in assuring full employment. It is argued that, although involuntary unemployment is a central problem both in Keynes' and New Keynesians' views, referring to the role of nominal and real wages in explaining unemployment, New Keynesians theories present important features that differ, sometimes substantially, from the concepts developed by Keynes in his General Theory.     

Effective Demand: Securing the Foundations

Abstract

This paper is one of three contributions to a symposium commenting on papers previously published by the other authors. Allain (Allain, O. (2009) Effective demand and short-term adjustments in the General Theory, Review of Political Economy, 21, pp. 1–22) argues that Keynes elides a distinction between aggregate demand and global expenditure that is necessary to explain the formation of price expectations by individual entrepreneurs. Allain's conclusions depend upon redefinitions of aggregate and effective demand and the consumption function. Hartwig (Hartwig, J. (2007) Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the principle of effective demand, European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 14, pp. 725–739) argues that entrepreneurs must take into account the state of the economy as a whole, in order to form price expectations independently and not as a market equilibrium determined by aggregate supply and demand. This leaves demand price expectations to be determined outside the principle of effective demand. Neither author does full justice to Keynes's own treatment. We still need to agree by what mechanism individual entrepreneurs form a collective and mutually consistent state of expectation in The General Theory.     

Theory creation and the methodological foundation of Post Keynesian economics

For the last 15 years there have been extensive discussionsabout the foundations of Post Keynesian economics. From thesediscussions, Post Keynesians have reached the consensus thattheir economics is based on a philosophical foundation of realismand critical realism. However, the methodological foundationof Post Keynesian economics, which refers to the methodologicalguidelines used for creating and developing theory, has receivedrelatively less discussion and development. The aim of thispaper is to stimulate discussion in this area by advocatingthat the method of grounded theory is consistent with criticalrealism and is a better and more developed set of guidelinesfor theory creation than the currently accepted alternatives.     

Consumer power and market control: Exploring consumer behaviour in affluent contexts (1946–1980)

Abstract

The aim of this essay is to present and explain the emergence and decay of two unorthodox views of consumer behaviour that developed from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s: the view of the powerful consumer and the view of market control by producers. It begins by presenting their common origins in empirical studies that opposed the Keynesian-type analysis of consumption. While the first developed into the program of behavioural economics defended by George Katona of the Michigan Survey Research Center, the second nourished the contributions of authors like Galbraith (1958, 1967, 1977), Scitovsky (1954, 1962, 1976) and Mishan (1960, 1967).     

Market Structure and Interfirm Integration in the Petroleum Industry

Since March 2008 we have witnessed a flurry of government "bailouts," directed to assist financial institutions. What has made these more or less acceptable to the public is the hope that they are temporary, implemented in a state of emergency, and that they offer market solutions and won't structurally change capitalist relations. However, no temporary stimulus and bailouts can address the systemic instability in financial capitalism identified by Post Keynesians and Institutionalists.     

Keynes vs. the Post Keynesians on the Principle of Effective Demand *

Abstract

The American Post Keynesians – those who attach importance to the capital ‘P’ and the absence of a hyphen between ‘post’ and ‘Keynesian’– claim to be Keynes' most literal interpreters or the ‘truest’ Keynesians (Holt et al. 1998 Holt, R. P.F., Rosser, J. B. Jr. and Wray, L. R. 1998. Paul Davidson's Economics Jerome Levy Economics Institute Working Paper no. 251. Blithewood, NY (www.levy.org) [Google Scholar]: 17). This paper compares the Post Keynesian interpretation of the Principle of Effective Demand, i.e. the D/Z-model, with Keynes' own presentation in chapter 3 of the General Theory– and finds substantial differences. A re-interpretation of the D/Z-model is offered that would bring it into line with chapter 3.     

A peculiar archaeology: Searching for Mr Giffen's behaviour

Abstract

It has been claimed that references to ‘Giffen behaviour’ constituted a single research project, driven by attempts to establish whether an initial ‘conjecture’ by Alfred Marshall had empirical validity. There is no stable basis for that claim because Marshall's discussion was contradictory and Robert Giffen rejected a key assumption made by Marshall. By the mid-1920s, discussion of an upward-sloping demand curve attached no particular significance to a Marshallian story. The formulation of the Irish famine Giffen exemplar by P.A. Samuelson illustrates how Giffen behaviour was stabilised as the single possible exception to the law of demand in the 1960s.     

Richard Kahn's fellowship dissertation: The fate of ‘The Economics of the Short Period’

Abstract

In 1930, Richard Kahn became a fellow of King's College, Cambridge, on the basis of his book-length dissertation ‘The Economics of the Short Period.’ It was finally published in the 1980s. Why did he not publish his thesis in the 1930s, when it would have made a substantial impact? We present two arguments. In 1932/33, Joan Robinson published many of Kahn's main ideas, rendering subsequent publication by him derivative. And by the mid-1930s, Kahn discovered that parts of his dissertation left untouched by Robinson were no longer new or distinctive because of rapid progress in research on imperfect and monopolistic competition.     

Competition policy vs. industrial policy as a growth strategy

ABSTRACT

This paper shows that competition policy, rather than industrial policy, generated the rapid economic growth in post-war Japan. It also reveals that Japan’s growth rate was lowered from the mid-1970s due to newly introduced industrial policies and paucity of further competition policy. The current Abe government recognises the need for competition policies in Japan to recover from the low-growth period. The paper describes the types of competition policy carried out under Abenomics, especially in National Strategic Special Zones.Abbreviations: METI: Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Industry NSSZ: National Strategic Special Zones     

Sraffa and von Neumann

This paper discusses the relationship between Piero Sraffa's 1960 book and John von Neumann's 1937 paper on economic growth in the light of some of the material contained in Sraffa's unpublished papers and correspondence. It is argued that the two contributions share a similar outlook and exhibit conceptual parallels; in fact, they can both be said to belong to the 'classical' approach to the theory of value and distribution. The latter is characterized, among other things, by an asymmetric treatment of the distributive variables, the rate of return on capital and the real wage rate. Sraffa's papers show that when he came across the von Neumann model in the mid-1940s his own analysis was already quite advanced, including his analysis of joint production. The paper also contains an exchange of letters between John Richard Hicks and Sraffa on some of the issues dealt with in the latter's book.     

The interaction between Leontief and Sraffa: No meeting,no citation,no attention?

Abstract

Samuelson often regretted that Leontief and Sraffa never cited each other (true), and seemed to pay no attention to the other's work (false). In the Foley interview Leontief suggested he never met Sraffa (false). Archival evidence shows that in the 1940s Sraffa studied Leontief's classic The Structure of American Economy; he also owned the rare mimeographed supplement, and did some calculations on Leontief's first input–output table. Leontief and Sraffa met in Cambridge (UK) in 1950 and later. In the 1980s Leontief wrote an ambitious empirical paper on technological change, rejected by the AER, and not widely read. It studied some Sraffian topics without Sraffian terminology. I construct a hypothetical reswitching example using Leontief's statistics.     

The Economic Contributions of Hyman Minsky: varieties of capitalism and institutional reform

The work of Hyman Minsky represents an important link between Post Keynesians and Institutionalists. This essay begins with a brief summary of Minsky's early work, including his well-known financial instability hypothesis and his policy proposals designed to reform the financial system. It then moves on to discuss other proposals that are less well known, and developed after the publication of his Stabilizing an Unstable Economy (1986) book. One of them in all the work of Minsky is his demand that theory be institution-specific. Because there are a variety of possible types of economies, theory must be appropriate to the specific economy under analysis. His analysis concerned an evolving, developed, big-government capitalist economy with complex and long-lived financial arrangements. His policy recommendations were designed to promote a successful, democratic form of capitalism given these financial arrangements. These policies would have to ‘constrain’ instability through creation of institutional ‘ceilings and floors’ while at the same time addressing the behavioral changes induced by reduction of instability. The policies would also have to promote rising living standards, expansion of democratic principles, and enhancement of security for the average household.     

Intermediate macroeconomics: The importance of being post Keynesian

Post Keynesians should not be afraid to teach what they believe represents the best explanation of macroeconomic fluctuations. Our colleagues in the mainstream certainly are not and, realistically speaking, it is hard to imagine that any student would be handicapped by not having had a full dose of IS-LM, the accelerationist hypothesis, Phillips Curves, and so on. Furthermore, there may not be a more opportune time to introduce post Keynesianism to undergraduate students with Neoclassicals still recovering from their inability to explain the financial crisis. This article argues for a post Keynesian-focused intermediate macroeconomics and offers a sample plan. It reviews the state of post-financial crisis mainstream macro teaching and references pedagogical literature in showing how a post Keynesian transformation and reorganization can be made most effective.     

The industry supply curve: Two different traditions

Abstract

The present paper seeks to provide some new insights into the precise nature and the analytical foundations (or lack of them) of the familiar industry supply curve. We reconsider some fundamental phases of its historical evolution. Two different traditions are distinguished: one consists of the formalisations of Marshall's theory proposed by Barone and, later, by Pigou, Viner, Harrod and Robinson; the other consists of the models of Hicks and Allen, on the basis of ideas and criticism put forward by other London School of Economics scholars, like Kaldor and Robbins, in the mid-1930s. It is argued that the second tradition did not really remedy the weak aspects of the Marshallian theory of supply.     

Confidence in Keynes and Hayek: Reply to Burczak

We agree with Burczak's identification of the crucial issues. We disagree with his interpretation of them. We expand our defense of the claim that Keynes was a rationalist. We introduce the "horizon principle" to critize Keynes' dichotomy between short-term and long-term expectations. We question the statistical simile guiding some Post Keynesian dsiscussions of uncertainty. We point to the role of evolution in shaping conventions that fit the economic environment in a world with novel events. We think the evidence favors our view over Burczak's. Finally, we put in a plea for framing the issues in a way that facilitates empirical testing.     

Confidence and alternative Keynesian methods of asset choice

Abstract

This article elaborates the analysis of asset choice proposed by Keynes and later adopted by Post Keynesians such as Paul Davidson and Hyman Minsky. The article incorporates the essential aspects of the theory of confidence presented in Dequech (1999) Dequech, D. 1999. Expectations and confidence under uncertainty. Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, 21: 415–430. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], first into an investigation of the relation between confidence and the liquidity premium and then into the broader theory of asset choice. Keynes considered two methods of determining planned investment expenditures: one method is based on the comparison between the marginal efficiency of capital and the interest rate; the other is based on the comparison between the demand price and the supply price of a particular capital good. Both methods can be generalized for asset choice, with investment as a particular case. The article refines and develops these two methods so as to specify more precisely the influence of confidence and speculation on the determination of liquidity premia and hence on the several assets' profitability.     

Augusto Graziani and the Marx-Schumpeter-Keynes ‘Cycle of Money Capital’: A Personal Look at the Early Italian Circuitism from an Insider

ABSTRACT

The paper goes back to the origins of the theory of the monetary circuit in its Italian incarnation. Focus is on the evolution of Augusto Graziani's thinking between mid-1970s and mid-1980s, considering: (i) how Graziani connected (positively or polemically) with Keynesianism and Post-Keynesianism, both in its Cambridge and US incarnations; (ii) how Graziani interpreted the contributions of Keynes proposing a continuity between the Treatise on Money, the General Theory, and the articles on finance published after the 1936 book; (iii) how beneath the research programme of Italian circuitism (Graziani) we may recognise a peculiar Marxian inspiration, later on pursued for a while by some participants to the Seminar in Monetary Theory that Graziani coordinated in Naples (1981–85). Since the mid-1970s Graziani — who already had a profound knowledge of Neoclassical Theory; and who was deeply aware of the role of institutions — developed more and more his heretical stance into what we may label as a ‘structural Keynesian' approach, inserting Keynes’ views about finance to production and effective demand into a Schumpeterian vision of the capitalist process, and leading to Marxian conclusions about value and distribution. The early forays into circuitism by Graziani were not only critical towards the Neoclassical Synthesis, Monetarism, or New Classical Macroeconomics. They were also grounded in an intense confrontation with other contemporary heterodox currents. The outcome was the construction of an original scheme of thought which amounted to nothing less than a macro-monetary theory of capitalist production.     

TOP INCOMES IN NEW ZEALAND 1921–2005: UNDERSTANDING THE EFFECTS OF MARGINAL TAX RATES, MIGRATION THREAT, AND THE MACROECONOMY

Using taxation statistics, we estimate the income share held by top income groups in New Zealand over the period 1921–2005. We find that the income share of the richest fell during the 1930s, rose again after the Second World War, and steadily declined from the late-1950s until the mid-1980s. From the mid-1980s until the mid-1990s, top income shares rose rapidly, particularly at the very top of the distribution. We present evidence that top marginal tax rates and changing top income shares in Australia and the United Kingdom may have contributed to fluctuations in the income share of the richest 1 percent. Past economic growth does not seem to have a strong effect on the income share of the top percentile group.