Metering motorbike mobility: informal transport in transition?

Vast numbers of people in rapidly growing cities throughout the developing world depend on informal transport services for their mobility needs. Thus far the field of transition studies has addressed the dynamics of socio-technical change in situations where regimes of automobility and sanctioned public transport constitute the dominant order, but not in contexts of cities in the developing world, where informal transit thrives. In this paper we enquire about stability and prospects for change in these kinds of socio-technical systems. To this end, we trace the evolution of Bangkok's motorcycle taxi industry including recent efforts to introduce a potentially radical innovation: an information and communications technology (ICT) platform used as a taximeter. The paper concludes that innovations in informal urban transport are opening up alternative mobility pathways for the developing world, which might even spread far beyond their original confines into the West; and that the persistence of informal transport systems and the proliferation of innovations within those systems in developing countries prove to be relevant phenomena for defining prominent topics on the agenda of (sustainability) transitions research.     

Environmental rationalities and the development state in East Asia: Prospects for a sustainability transition

This paper reviews what is known about recent trends in environmental governance among the newly industrializing countries of East Asia and the implications of these developments for a sustainability transition within the region. The conceptual starting point for the review is research that examines sustainability transitions within the framework of a multi-level perspective on system innovation. One of the challenges presented by this framework is that of understanding how existing political economies and governance structures promote stability or change in socio-technical regimes. By socio-technical regimes we mean the predominant organizational, social and technological configurations through which societal needs are constituted and met. In the case of the rapidly industrializing and urbanizing economies of East Asia, the trajectory of socio-technical regimes will have profound consequences for local, regional and global environments. Our review of trends in environmental governance as they relate to socio-technical regimes within the region traces a pattern of initial efforts to strengthen environmental regulatory regimes very much along the lines of the policy models of OECD economies. The degree to which these initial efforts have taken root varies from country to country in the region. What is beginning to emerge in several countries within the region, however, are a variety of policy and institutional innovations that hold promise for opening up spaces for change in socio-technical regimes, and for creating opportunities for new pathways of industrialization and urbanization to take hold that are less pollution, materials and energy-intensive.     

Using the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions to assess innovation policy

In recent years a growing literature on socio-technical transitions towards sustainability has emerged. Scholars have explored ways through which configurations of technologies, infrastructures, social practices, institutions and markets can change to fulfil their functions in a more sustainable way. A multi-level perspective (MLP) has been developed to describe and analyse these complex, long-term processes. It has also been used to help design policy for example in the Netherlands. In this paper the MLP is used in a novel way: as a heuristic to ex ante assess policies to stimulate socio-technical transitions. Instead of using it for policy development, the MLP is used here for an assessment of policy. The analysis focuses on a particular policy initiative intended to stimulate the transition to a low carbon economy in the UK: the Carbon Trust. This paper makes two contributions to the socio-technical transitions literature: Conceptually, the paper demonstrates the usefulness of the socio-technical multi-level perspective to analyse policies and assess their likely impact ex ante against the background of theorising about the patterns of large scale, socio-technical change. Empirically, the paper finds that the activities of the Carbon Trust consist of a variety of well targeted ways to stimulate the development of socio-technical niches as well as to change regime practices directly. Nevertheless, the paper argues that this model also faces difficulties in promoting a transition towards a low carbon economy.     

A hard slog, not a leap frog: Globalization and sustainability transitions in developing Asia

How does globalization influence transitions toward more sustainable socio-technical regimes in the developing world? This paper argues that transformations of regimes, the networks and institutions governing technological and environmental practices in an industry, can be positively influenced by globalization but it depends on how global forces interact with local socio-political landscapes—the political-economic institutions, values, and regulations broadly guiding an economy and its relationship to the environment. We evaluate these relationships through a comparison of two kinds of socio-political landscapes—the neo-liberal export-led development model commonly found in the developing world and the uniquely Asian capitalist developmental state. We first show how the neo-liberal model overemphasizes the power of market forces to facilitate upgrading and more sustainable industrialization. We then argue that capitalist developmental states in East and Southeast Asia have been better able to harness global economic forces for technological and sustainability transitions through an openness to trade and investment and effective public-private institutions able to link cleaner technologies and environmental standards to production activities in firms. We buttress this argument with firm-level evidence showing the evolution of socio-technical regimes in two industries—cement and electronics. The case studies demonstrate how interactions with OECD firms can contribute to environmental technique effects provided the socio-political landscape is amenable to changes in an industry's regime. Ultimately, we find the process of transition to be complex and contingent; a hard slog not a leap frog toward a potentially more sustainable future. We close by considering the limitations on the capitalist developmental state model and with comments about what else needs to be learned about globalization's role in sustainability transitions.     

Developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK

This paper describes the approach to developing transition pathways for a low carbon electricity system in the UK, being pursued in a major new inter-disciplinary research project. The project aims (a) to learn from past transitions to help explore future transitions and what might enable or avoid them; (b) to design and evaluate transition pathways towards alternative socio-technical energy systems and infrastructures for a low carbon future; and (c) to understand and, where appropriate, model the changing roles, influences and opportunities of large and small ‘actors’ in the dynamics of transitions. The paper describes the approach, which builds on the work of Dutch researchers on transitions and transition management using a multi-level framework of niches, socio-technical regime and landscape, as well as on other parts of the innovation systems literature. It also describes its application to several outline transition pathways to a low carbon energy system in the UK. The pathways embrace both the evolution of the physical and institutional infrastructure changes and the roles of both large actors, e.g. multinational energy supply and distribution companies, national governments, major investors, and small actors, e.g. households, innovators and entrepreneurs.     

Governance experimentation and factors of success in socio-technical transitions in the urban water sector

The necessity of a shift towards more sustainable urban water management practice is widely acknowledged and advocated. Experimentation that enables social learning is regarded of high importance for realising such a change. For instance, literature on Transition Management suggests that governance, as opposed to purely technical, experimentation is considered a critical factor in achieving a socio-technical transition. When analysing the water sector it becomes clear that modern urban water systems have almost exclusively focused upon technological experimentation with little attention directed towards the importance of governance experimentation for social learning. Empirically little is known neither on how governance experimentation actually unfolds nor about its effectiveness for socio-technical transitions. This research paper presents a critical analysis of a unique process of governance experimentation within the Australian urban water sector which generated sufficient social–political capital to change an established water governance framework. Conclusions of this research reveal some theoretically conjectured processes, like deepening, broadening and scaling-up, are found in this contemporary, real-life example. Furthermore, factors which influenced the success of this governance experimentation process are revealed and the role of various forms of learning therein is described.     

What drives technology transitions? An integration of different approaches within transition studies

This paper aims to provide a deeper understanding of transition drivers by reviewing four major strands of inquiry in transition studies: Multi Level Perspective (MLP); Strategic Niche Management (SNM); Transition Management (TM); Technological Innovation Systems (TIS). To the best of our knowledge, none of these contributions have so far provided a clear-cut classification of main drivers of transitions, as evidenced by the difficulty of practitioners in reaching goals as entrepreneurs, or policy makers in supporting economic growth. We believe that these theoretical streams share views relating the origin and drivers of transitions and that the analysis of the multi-level developments and systemic sub-processes by using the Integrative Propositional Analysis (IPA) allows for a more comprehensive identification of transition drivers. By mapping causal relationships within each perspective and by developing an integrative framework that takes in due account of overlaps between theories, we derived a new conceptual structure for the identification of transitions’ drivers.     

社会—技术系统可持续转型阻力及治理研究——基于利基保护空间思路

可持续转型研究是一个发展迅速的新领域,旨在解释社会-技术系统转型如何发生以及如何治理，其理论影响日益显著。然而，当前实践表明，以能源、交通为代表的系统转型进程依然相当缓慢，因此厘清转型进程中的阻力具有重要意义。归纳分析系统转型的基本要求以及转型动态过程和机制，从产业结构、基础设施、知识基础、市场和消费需求结构、公共政策与政治力量及社会认知6个方面分析社会-技术系统中现行非持续体制，对新的可持续技术利基发展和转型进程构成阻力。在现行技术体制稳定情况下，加速转型进程必须扶持技术利基成长，从防护、培育、赋能3个方面建立和强化利基保护空间功能,突破体制路径依赖。最后，从“谁治理、治理什么、如何治理”3个问题切入，提出在利基保护空间动态发展过程中，政策制定者需要以治理思维推进其战略管理。     

社会—技术系统可持续转型阻力及治理研究——基于利基保护空间思路

可持续转型研究是一个发展迅速的新领域,旨在解释社会-技术系统转型如何发生以及如何治理，其理论影响日益显著。然而，当前实践表明，以能源、交通为代表的系统转型进程依然相当缓慢，因此厘清转型进程中的阻力具有重要意义。归纳分析系统转型的基本要求以及转型动态过程和机制，从产业结构、基础设施、知识基础、市场和消费需求结构、公共政策与政治力量及社会认知6个方面分析社会-技术系统中现行非持续体制，对新的可持续技术利基发展和转型进程构成阻力。在现行技术体制稳定情况下，加速转型进程必须扶持技术利基成长，从防护、培育、赋能3个方面建立和强化利基保护空间功能,突破体制路径依赖。最后，从“谁治理、治理什么、如何治理”3个问题切入，提出在利基保护空间动态发展过程中，政策制定者需要以治理思维推进其战略管理。     

The business cycle,labor market transitions by age,and the great recession

Using matched monthly CPS data, this article studies differences in labour force transitions across age groups focusing on periods prior to and after the start of the Great Recession. Monthly transitions between employment, unemployment, and nonparticipation of 25–55-year-old males are examined from 1996 through 2013. Prior to the Great Recession (1996–2007), younger groups of workers are more likely to move from employment to unemployment and face an increased risk beyond that of other workers of making this transition as the economy worsens; however, this differential responsiveness no longer appears after the start of the Great Recession. Before and after the start of the Great Recession, younger groups of workers are more likely to move from unemployment to employment; however, there is no extra responsiveness among younger workers to the business cycle. Transitions into and out of the labour force nuance these findings; however, there is no evidence of differential responsiveness among younger workers since the start of the Great Recession. These findings challenge interpretation of the movements of unemployment rates by age group over the business cycle as being driven by differential hiring and firing particularly since the start of the Great Recession.     

The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860–1930)

This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions (e.g. transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g. artefacts, knowledge, user practices and markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. To understand how transitions from one socio-technical system to another come about, the article describes a conceptual multi-level perspective. The perspective is illustrated with a historical case study: the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles in the USA (1860–1930). The case study shows that technological substitution approaches to this transition are too simple, because they neglect the electric tram and bicycle, which acted as important stepping stones. The case study also corrects another mistake, namely that the gasoline car won by chance from steam and electric automobiles. It will be shown that particular niches played a crucial role in this competition, as well as the wider socio-technical context. The case study deviates on three points from the multi-level perspective. These deviations are used to conceptualize a particular transition pathway, called ‘de-alignment and re-alignment’.     

Corporate entrepreneurship and sustainability transitions: resource redeployment of oil and gas industry firms in floating wind power

ABSTRACT

It has been recently argued that the vast resources of established firms can potentially accelerate sustainability transitions. This paper contributes to the study of such possibilities by investigating the resource redeployment of three Norwegian oil and gas industry firms in corporate ventures in floating wind power technologies. Using interview and document data, the findings show that the opportunity to use existing firm resources was a key motivation for established firms to engage in entrepreneurship in such technologies. The firms could redeploy their specialised and general-purpose resources in these entrepreneurial ventures, and develop new technologies on the basis of their existing resources. However, also challenges and controversies were observed. This paper thus suggests that the process of resource redeployment can help to explain why, and describe how, established firms may engage in cleantech innovation through corporate entrepreneurship.     

Exploring local projects for sustainable energy in system transition: local perceptions of success

In the sustainability transitions literature, ‘success’ is conceived as the transition from an unsustainable system to a sustainable one. However, this view hides a more profound complexity in individual projects which can contribute to system transition. This paper focuses instead on local projects as key sites for change. In two case studies of UK sustainable energy projects, success is shown to be characterised by different causative beliefs held by different people about the problems being addressed, which predetermines solutions to those problems; and hence the nature of success. By acknowledging this multiplicity of success, as perceived by ordinary residents and project organisers as well as transition scholars, ‘narratives of success’ can be recognised, enabling future projects to build on success, and continue along the path to transition. This reconceptualisation provides transition scholars with new ways of understanding and effecting transitions; by focusing on the project level, which is useful in contexts with varying commitment to sustainability.     

Democratic revolutions as institutional innovation diffusion: Rapid adoption and survival of democracy

Recent ‘democratic revolutions’ in Islamic countries call for a re-consideration of transitions to and from democracy. Transitions to democracy have often been considered the outcome of socio-economic modernization and therefore slow and incremental processes. But as a recent study has made clear, in the last century, transitions to democracy have mainly occurred through rapid leaps rather than slow and incremental steps. Here, we therefore apply an innovation and systems perspective and consider transitions to democracy as processes of institutional, and therefore systemic, innovation adoption. We show that transitions to democracy starting before 1900 lasted for an average of 50 years and a median of 56 years, while transitions originating later took an average of 4.6 years and a median of 1.7 years. However, our results indicate that the survival time of democratic regimes is longer in cases where the transition periods have also been longer, suggesting that patience paid in previous democratizations. We identify a critical ‘consolidation-preparing’ transition period of 12 years. Our results also show that in cases where the transitions have not been made directly from autocracy to democracy, there are no main institutional paths towards democracy. Instead, democracy seems reachable from a variety of directions. This is in line with the analogy of diffusion of innovations at the nation systems level, for which assumptions are that potential adopter systems may vary in susceptibility over time. The adoption of the institutions of democracy therefore corresponds to the adoption of a new political communications standard for a nation, in this case the innovation of involving in principle all adult citizens on an equal basis.     

Transition towards a decentralised energy system: analysing prospects for innovation facilitation and regime destabilisation in Finland

ABSTRACT

The Finnish energy system is rather centralised and its governing regime is characterised as exclusive. Recently, pressure to move towards decentralised, small-scale energy production has increased. This article utilises a combination of ideas from technological innovation systems and regime destabilisation and analyses the prospects for the transition towards a decentralised energy system in Finland's socio-economic context. We argue that the transition towards a decentralised energy system requires both innovation facilitation and proactive destabilisation of the existing regime, and therefore these issues must also be included in energy transition analyses.     

Foundational ontologies and multi-paradigm analysis,applied to the socio-technical transition from mixed farming to intensive pig husbandry (1930–1980)

This article adds a new case study to the expanding literature on socio-technical transitions: the shift from mixed farming to intensive pig husbandry in the Netherlands. With regard to this transition, the article addresses a new direction, namely the role of foundational ontologies in explanation. Five ontologies are distinguished, which are based on different assumptions about causal agents and causal mechanisms: rational choice, functionalism, conflict and power struggle, interpretivism, and structuralism. The article demonstrates how these ontologies provide different explanations of same case. It also empirically investigates the strengths and weaknesses of different ontological explanations, and identifies possible complementarities in this case. The article ends with theoretical reflections on the relationships between ontologies and the role of meta-paradigm analysis.     

Exploring sustainability transitions in the electricity sector with socio-technical pathways

This paper analyses sustainability transitions in the electricity system, using recent theories on socio-technical pathways. The paper describes three possible transition pathways and indicates the implications for (grid) infrastructures. The ‘transformation pathway’ is characterised by a further hybridization of the infrastructure; in the ‘reconfiguration pathway’, internationalisation and scale increase in renewable generation lead to the emergence of a ‘Supergrid’. The ‘de-alignment and re-alignment pathway’ is dominated by distributed generation and a focus on more local infrastructures. We suggest that this pathway, which involves a major restructuring of the electricity system, is less likely than the other two. The de-alignment and re-alignment pathway is therefore more dependent on external developments and/or strong policy interventions. All pathways, however, require major investments in infrastructure and innovative technologies.     

The dynamics of transitions in socio-technical systems: A multi-level analysis of the transition pathway from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles (1860-1930)

This article investigates transitions at the level of societal functions (e.g. transport, communication, housing). Societal functions are fulfilled by socio-technical systems, which consist of a cluster of aligned elements, e.g. artefacts, knowledge, user practices and markets, regulation, cultural meaning, infrastructure, maintenance networks and supply networks. To understand how transitions from one socio-technical system to another come about, the article describes a conceptual multi-level perspective. The perspective is illustrated with a historical case study: the transition from horse-drawn carriages to automobiles in the USA (1860-1930). The case study shows that technological substitution approaches to this transition are too simple, because they neglect the electric tram and bicycle, which acted as important stepping stones. The case study also corrects another mistake, namely that the gasoline car won by chance from steam and electric automobiles. It will be shown that particular niches played a crucial role in this competition, as well as the wider socio-technical context. The case study deviates on three points from the multi-level perspective. These deviations are used to conceptualize a particular transition pathway, called 'de-alignment and re-alignment'.     

Cost-effectiveness analysis of ocrelizumab versus subcutaneous interferon beta-1a for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis

Aim: To conduct a cost-effectiveness analysis to compare ocrelizumab vs subcutaneous (SC) interferon beta-1a for the treatment of relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS).

Methods: A Markov cohort model with a 20-year horizon was developed to compare ocrelizumab with SC interferon beta-1a from a US payer perspective. A cohort of patients with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) and Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores of 0–6, who initiated treatment with ocrelizumab or SC interferon beta-1a, were entered into the model. The model considered 21 health states: EDSS 0–9 in RRMS, EDSS 0–9 in secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS), and death. Patients with RRMS could transition across EDSS scores, progress to SPMS, experience relapses, or die. Transition probabilities within RRMS while patients received ocrelizumab or SC interferon beta-1a were based on data from the two SC interferon beta-1a-controlled Phase III OPERA I and OPERA II trials of ocrelizumab in RMS. Transitions within RRMS when off-treatment, RRMS-to-SPMS transitions, transitions within SPMS, and transitions to death were based on the literature. Utilities of health states, disutilities of relapses, costs of therapies, and medical costs associated with health states, relapse, and adverse events were from the literature and publicly available data sources. The model estimated per-patient total costs, incremental cost per life year (LY) gained, and incremental cost per quality-adjusted LY (QALY) gained. Deterministic sensitivity analyses (DSA) and probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) were conducted to evaluate the robustness of the model results.

Results: Ocrelizumab was associated with a cost savings of $63,822 and longer LYs (Δ?=?0.046) and QALYs (Δ?=?0.556) over a 20-year time horizon. The results of the model were robust in the DSA and PSA.

Limitations: The model did not consider subsequent treatments and their impact on disease progression.

Conclusions: The results suggest that ocrelizumab is more cost-effective than SC interferon beta-1a for the treatment of RMS.     

Integrated transitions toward sustainability: The case of water and energy policies in Israel

Transition Management literature has examined how long-term transitions could be directed toward greater sustainability. However, it has mostly taken a sectoral approach which neglects the potential relationships between environmental changes and policy dynamics in different sectors. This paper examines parallel and interrelated dynamics in the Israeli water and energy sectors by combining insights from the literature on policy dynamics, transition management, co-evolution, and policy integration. The developed approach examines how sectoral transitions may be coupled and technological regimes may co-evolve. Israel has battled water, energy and other scarcities from its formation. Consecutive dry years, the loss of stream flows, salinization of the coastal aquifer, and severe pollution are problems facing water managers, while air pollution, imported fossil fuels and carbon emissions are salient energy issues. Water and energy sectors are both in transition because earlier policies have resulted in socially-induced scarcity, degradation of environmental assets and loss of adaptive capacity to respond to future challenges. Current approaches to water and energy scarcities have evolved around technological configurations which emphasize traditional supply side solutions such as seawater desalination and additional power plants. They may be difficult to change without explicit integrative transitions management.