The price-wage inflationary spiral in Poland

In this paper the problem of price-wage relationship modelling in the case of a mixed economy is addressed. The empirical investigation was based on Polish annual data for the period of a centrally planned system (1964–1989) and on quarterly data for the period of transition towards a market economy (1990.1–1990.3). The traditional approach proved to be inappropriate because of the variables' nonstationarity. Identification of long-run behaviour was attempted by applying the two-step Engle-Granger's, or alternatively, Johansen's maximum likelihood (ML) procedures. The ML estimator provided better estimates of cointegration vectors and, even more important, allowed as many as three to be found.The main conclusion which can be drawn from the empirical findings is that three variables: price index, average wages and labour productivity, form a multi-dimensional equilibrium space. This property of the described phenomena needs to be taken into serious account when building macroeconometric models explaining the behaviour of the Polish economy.The existence of these three cointegration vectors is troublesome because of unusual problems of interpretation. However, if it is not as a result of misspecification and/or small sample bias, it proves that much remains to be learned about the price-wage mechanisms functioning in economies having a mixed character.     

Polish Stabilization: What can we learn from the I(2) Cointegration Analysis?

This paper investigates an array of nominal systems for the Polish economy, of domestic price level, import prices, exchange rates, money stock, nominal wages, and real output, and conducts I(1) and I(2) cointegration analyses. Post-stabilization monthly data are used, 1991:5–1999:12.A test for the presence of a price-wage spiral is performed, and the stabilization package is compared to its realization. The long-run homogeneity hypothesis, the impact of monetary and incomes policies, and of external sector variables on long and medium run price development are studied. It is found that in Poland, contrary to some earlier studies, the external sector is not important for the long run price development. On the contrary, very strong evidence is found of the cost-push inflation.     

A dynamic econometric model of agricultural wage determination in Bangladesh

Economists applied data from 1949-1950 and 1980-1981 to a new dynamic model to examine the dynamics of determinants of agricultural wages in Bangladesh, particularly the effect of changes in relative prices of rice (the staple food) and productivity. Just a 20% rise in the price or rice was passed on in the agricultural wage rate within the current year. About 50% was passed on in the long run, however. Therefore an increase in the price of rice reduced the rice purchasing power of agricultural wages in the short and long term. In fact, the importance given to rice in the long run real wage rate was almost the same as the mean proportion of expenditure that an agricultural laborer in Bangladesh committed to rice and closely related food staples. Thus arise in the price of rice in comparison to other goods had limited effects on the long run real wage in terms of the bundle of goods typically consumed, but very adverse effects in the short run placing a high burden on the rural poor. On the other hand, the long run real wage rate fell considerably between the mid 1960s-early 1980s when overall agricultural productivity increased. The economists pointed out that this increased productivity may not have lowered long run real wage rates, but instead mitigating factors may have contributed to this fall. For example, population growth, rising landlessness, and insufficient economic growth in nonagricultural sectors resulted in a consistent growth in the labor supply. In conclusion, this new dynamic model showed that Bangladesh cannot depend only on agricultural growth to reduce the poverty of farmers.     

Sticky prices, fair wages, and the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth

This paper studies the co-movements of unemployment and labor productivity growth for the U.S. economy. Measures of co-movements in the frequency domain indicate that co-movements between variables differ strongly according to the frequency. First, long-term and business cycle co-movements are larger than short-term co-movements. Second, co-movements are negative in the short and long run, but positive over the business cycle. A New Keynesian model that combines nominal rigidity on the goods market (sticky prices) and real rigidity on the labor market (fair wages) is shown to be quantitatively consistent with the observed co-movements both in the long term and over the business cycle. However, the model fails to explain the short-term co-movements.     

Training,productivity and wages in Italy

This paper presents for the first time panel evidence on the productivity and wage effects of training in Italy. It is based on an original dataset which has been created aggregating individual-level data on training with firm-level data on productivity and wages into an industry panel covering all sectors of the Italian economy for the years 1996–1999. I use several modelling specifications and a variety of panel data techniques to argue that training significantly boosts productivity. However, no such effect is uncovered for wages. This seems to suggest that firms do actually reap more of the returns.     

Modelling wages in centrally planned economies: The case of Poland

The main idea developed in this paper is that rising excess demand for the labour force results in higher growth of wages over the notional rate of growth. The rationale is that employees change their jobs searching for higher wages, and employers are willing to offer higher pay in order to get additional workers. This relationship is highly nonlinear, and can be regarded as an extension of the idea known as the Phillips curve to the area of negative rate of unemployment. Additionally, one can observe that if the disequilibrium intensity in the labour market is small, its changes cause stronger reactions of wages in strategic branches than in the remaining sectors of the economy. It is similar to the situation of excess demand for labour. If there is a high rate of unemployment, reductions of wages affect more branches of secondary importance for the economy. The empirical investigation is based on Polish data covering the time period from 1964 through 1984. As excess demand for labour is unobservable, a proxy is used as an indicator of disequilibrium. It is introduced to the equation explaining the rate of growth of average wages, in addition to the rate of productivity growth of labour and the rate of inflation. Estimates are derived for 10 industry branches and sectors of the economy. The results confirm the initial hypothesis.     

Minimum wage is efficient wage in Turkish labor market: TAR–cointegration analysis

This study has two main purposes. First one is the necessity of taking minimum wages into account, if there is a purpose to analyze the relationship between wages and productivity in an economy which has high unemployment rates and informal employment. Second one is about the analyzing method of this relationship. We choose TAR cointegration analysis for this relation. First step of this analysis is testing for stationarity of the variables. However the low power of traditional unit root tests is examined and proved in many studies but not taken into account in TAR cointegration studies in literature. This study shows that traditional unit root tests are unfavorable for the variables which have TAR structures. Because of this shortcoming of traditional unit root tests, these results must be supported with TAR unit root tests.     

A simple macroeconomic model with extreme financial frictions

We develop a simple macroeconomic model with extreme financial frictions (no credit markets) and show that poverty traps can emerge even in the absence of leverage. In our model, farmers produce fruit by renting land from landlords. Crops are exposed to aggregate shocks (weather risk). To guarantee themselves a positive consumption level even after a bad crop, farmers store fruit as precautionary savings and adjust their scale of activity to the level of these savings. The land that is not rented to farmers is cultivated by landlords, who are less productive. We show that there is a unique Markov competitive equilibrium, in which the rental price of land increases with the level of farmers’ savings. A decline in savings, caused by a bad crop, may bring the economy into a ”poverty trap”, even in the absence of any leverage. Fluctuations of output are caused by productivity shocks and amplified by fluctuations in the level of activity of farmers. The simplicity of our model allows us to study analytically why the long run behavior of the economy may differ markedly from the one predicted by the steady state paradigm. Specifically, we show that when the risk-adjusted productivity of farmers is high and the elasticity of the land supply is low, using the steady state paradigm leads to serious mis-estimations of the long run average state of the economy.     

Financial development and economic growth in a microfounded small open economy model

The global financial crisis since 2008 revived the debate on whether or not and to what extent financial development contributes to economic growth. This paper reviews different theoretical schools of thought and empirical findings on this nexus, building on which we aim to develop a unified, microfounded model in a small open economy setting to accommodate various theoretical possibilities and empirical observations. The model is then calibrated to match some well-documented stylized facts. Numerical simulations show that, in the long run, the welfare-maximizing level of financial develop is lower than the growth-maximizing level. In the short run, the price channel (through world interest rate) dominates the quantity-channel (through financial productivity), suggesting a vital role of international cooperation in tackling systemic risk of the global financial system.     

Productivity and efficiency scores of dairy farms: the case of Turkey

A greater productivity level in milk production is the best answer to the increasing demand for this essential food. The main material of this study, which aims to determine the total factor productivity (TFP) and efficiency of dairy farms, consists of 100 surveys chosen from 1,429 registered farms of the Cattle Breeders Association of Aydin-Turkey by means of stratified sampling in May, 2006. The TFP decreases with farm size which shows that large farms fail to utilize their labour resource in full. In data envelopment analysis 15 farms work with an efficiency rate of 100%. The lowest efficiency rate was found to be 43%; the highest one was 100% and the mean rate was 79%. The efforts to improve efficiency levels should include participatory extension and coordinated research programs that aim to increase the productivity and efficiency levels of these small farms in the long run.     

Great expectations: Past wages and unemployment durations

Decomposing wages into worker and firm wage components, we find that firm-fixed components are sizeable parts of workers' wages. If workers can only imperfectly observe the extent of firm-fixed components in their wages, they might be misled about the overall wage distribution. Such misperceptions may lead to unjustified high reservation wages, resulting in overly long unemployment durations. We examine the influence of previous wages on unemployment durations for workers after exogenous lay-offs and, using Austrian administrative data, we find that younger workers are, in fact, unemployed longer if they profited from high firm-fixed components in the past. We interpret our findings as evidence for overconfidence generated by imperfectly observed productivity.     

Crucial exchange rate parity. Evidence for Mexico

Through a structural vector error correction model, one restricted cointegrating relationship for monthly data (1999.01–2012.04) was found between three exchange parities of great relevance for the Mexican economy: US Dollar–Euro, Mexican Peso–US Dollar, and Mexican Peso–Euro. The data's structure revealed endogeneity of the last one, but the first is the one that adjusts the long run (cointegrating) relation. A unitary elasticity of MxP–Euro parity to the other two parities was found, which validates PPP condition in absolute terms. These results are crucial to analyze the possible long run exchange effects on the Mexican real and financial variables because of the possible intensification of the Euro crisis and the currency war.     

‘Klin’-ing up: Effects of Polish tax reforms on those in and on those out

In 2007 and 2008 Polish governments introduced a series of reforms which led to a substantial reduction in the tax “wedge” (in Polish: “klin”) on labour. These consisted of reductions in the disability rate of social security contributions (SSCs) and an introduction of an income tax credit for families with children. We show that the SSCs reforms on their own brought much greater reductions in the tax burden compared to a widely discussed 15% “flat tax”, despite a very similar simulated cost. When considered together the package of introduced reforms reduced the mean ATR on total labour cost from 41.6% to 35.7%. This compares to the mean ATR of 39.6% which would result from the introduction of the “flat tax”. In the analysis we present the effects of the reforms both for the employed and for the non-employed populations. The latter analysis is done in such a way as to account for the entire (simulated) distribution of wages of the non-employed and shows interesting differences between the effects of reforms on employed and non-employed individuals. We argue that to fully appreciate the effect of reductions in labour taxation it is important to bear in mind that one of the reasons for introducing them is to make employment more likely for those who currently do not work, and demonstrate that the introduced package has had a particularly important effect on non-employed second earners. Given the extent of the reductions in the “klin” it is somewhat surprising that so far so little attention has been given to the recent Polish reforms.     

Firm heterogeneity and wages in unionised labour markets: Theory and evidence

In many countries wages are set in two stages, where industry-level collective bargaining is followed by firm-specific arrangements determining actual paid wages as a mark-up on the industry wage floor. What explains the wage set in each of these stages? In this paper we show that both the industry wage floor and the average wage cushion are systematically associated with the degree of firm heterogeneity in the industry: The former (latter) is negatively (positively) associated with the productivity spread. Furthermore, since the response of the wage floor dominates that of the wage cushion, workers in more heterogeneous industries tend to get lower actual paid wages. These conclusions are reached in a model of Cournot oligopoly with firm productivity heterogeneity and a two-tiered wage setting system. They are then confirmed by administrative data covering virtually all workers, firms and collective bargaining agreements of the Portuguese private sector for the period 1991–2000.     

The Green Revolution,agrarian productivity and labor

The use of Green Revolution inputs has been responsible for higher levels of agrarian productivity in India. This is both because of the biological structure of high-yield varieties of seeds themselves and because of the structure of the agrarian political economy in the country. But the question is: have the laborers benefited from the rise in productivity made possible by the use of these inputs? I have shown, both conceptually and empirically, that laborers do gain from higher productivity, but not uniformly over space. They gain more where they are more organized. This means that the relation between productivity and wages is, in part, a political relation, and the strength of this relation is characterized by ‘spatial inconstancy’. I have also discussed how the Green Revolution has tended to undermine the relations of personal dependence between the landed and the laborers, and this seems to have helped labor organization to some extent. Labor organization is also affected by the structure of land/asset distribution. In particular, whether or not laborers possess some land/asset makes a difference to the effectiveness of laborers’ bargaining power with landowners over wages, and therefore, to the actual level of wages being paid.     

Does foreign aid procurement in resource-rich countries depend on these countries’ financial development and institutional quality? Evidence from PVECM and quantile-on-quantile regression

The underlying structure of the global economy has undergone major structural changes over the last two decades. These transformations have been powered by globalisation, technological development and multilateral trade agreements. The more open global economy has benefitted the global community, but many resource-rich developing countries are struggling to keep pace with more developed countries. As these resource-rich countries attempt to catch up with more developed economies, many rely on foreign aid to develop their institutions of governance and financial sector for a more knowledge-intensive economy. This study analyses the long- and short-run associations between foreign development aid procurement, financial development, and institutional quality in resource-rich countries from 2005 to 2020, employing the panel vector error-correction (PVECM) model and Quantile-on-Quantile Regression (QQR). Our analysis shows that, in the short run, there is a strong endogenous nexus between foreign aid procurement, quality of institutions and financial development. Furthermore, the results reveal that financial development and higher institutional development assist resource-rich countries in procuring foreign developmental aid in the long run. These findings suggest that a financial system which functions well, and favourable institutional governance are critical for these countries to secure foreign aid to put them on a path to sustainable development.     

Flexible collective bargaining agreements: Still a moderating effect on works council behaviour?

We analyse the interaction between different labour market institutions in Germany, namely, industry‐level bargaining and firm‐level codetermination by works councils. In particular, we are interested in the moderating effect of flexibility measures on the link between the existence works councils and collective agreements on wages and productivity. In presence of institutional changes, the question is whether works councils in covered plants still generate rather than redistribute rents, given recent decentralisation processes in the German system of industrial relations. We augment a theoretical model to provide hypotheses, which are then tested using empirical analysis of representative German plant level data. We find that the existence of flexibility provisions in collective bargaining agreements does not alter the effect of works council on firms' wages. We find, however, that with flexibility provisions works council presence is associated with higher productivity levels than without such provisions. These findings, however, depend on the level of collective bargaining: they can only be observed in plants covered by industry‐level contracts, but do not hold in plants covered by firm‐level contracts.     

Exchange rate volatility and domestic consumption: Evidence from Japan

In 1952, Alexander provided an argument that since inflationary effects of depreciation could shift income from workers to producers it could lead to a decline in aggregate domestic consumption. This was based on the assumption that wages do not adjust fully to inflation and labor has a high MPC relative to that of the producers. In this paper, we argue that in addition to the exchange rate itself, exchange rate uncertainty could also affect domestic consumption. We demonstrate our conjecture by using quarterly data from Japan and a bounds testing approach that distinguishes the short run from the long run.     

Wages,Prices and Politics: Evidence from Norway

This paper studies the empirical relevance of the close ties between a central trade union and the social democratic political party using time series data for Norway. Using a structural wage-price model we estimate that changing from a bourgeois to a social democratic government reduces manufacturing wages in the long run by 2.3 percent. This result is consistent with a wage bargaining model augmented by political preferences of the union leaders. Private service wages are not directly affected by government type, but wage spillover effects imply that the long-run dampening effect in the private service sector is around 2 percent. The results also support the proposition of the Scandinavian model of inflation that the traded goods sector is the wage leader.