The evolving role of hit and niche products in brick-and-mortar retail category assortment planning: A large-scale empirical investigation of U.S. consumer packaged goods

Long tail theory, the notion that the future of retailing could involve shifting product assortments to offer more product variety to precisely serve the unique needs of individual customers, has largely been proven true in the context of online distribution. However, it has been implicitly assumed that this theory does not apply to brick-and-mortar selling situations due to higher supply side inventory costs and higher demand side consumer search costs. Academics and practitioners alike have thus advocated for the use of Pareto rules to make category assortment planning decisions about product inventory breadth and depth in the brick-and-mortar channel. This research directly challenges this received wisdom by noting that the widespread prevalence and use of mobile technology is causing information flows to speed up for consumers even while performing traditional shopping tasks. Such information flows should theoretically favor the strategic importance of niche products in the long tail of the sales distribution. A large-scale empirical analysis of consumer packaged goods brick-and-mortar retailing data indicates that this alternative prediction is indeed true. This research contributes to a larger body of research as well that has documented how major environmental forces are shifting the nature of retail strategy, particularly in the brick-and-mortar channel.     

Optimizing and Evaluating Retail Assortments for Infrequently Purchased Products

This article develops a methodology for choosing optimal retail assortments for infrequently purchased products and assessing the robustness of such assortments with regard to shifts in customer preferences. The approach incorporates heterogeneous consumer preferences and uses integer programming to determine optimal retail assortments. The robustness of the resulting assortments is examined using alternative consumer choice assumptions and ranges of parameter values. The methodology is illustrated using adaptive conjoint data collected via the Internet and is assessed against the sales results from an assortment offered by a national retail chain.     

A Simulation Model Of Multi‐Echelon Retail Inventory With Cross‐Channel Product Returns

This study explores the relationship between a retailer's product returns processing structure and Multi‐Echelon inventory system performance under cross‐channel and same‐channel product returns policies with nonstationary demand. Our research contributes to the growing body of reverse logistics literature, offering insight into how a retailer's logistical returns management strategy can impact inventory effectiveness in cross‐channel retail environments. Adopting a contingency framework, we develop research hypotheses which we test through experimentation on a Multi‐Echelon retail inventory system within a discrete‐event simulation. Model parameters are derived from data collected from a large U.S. retailer of consumer durable and nondurable goods. We find an amplifying effect of a cross‐channel returns policy on the positive relationship between a decentralized returns processing structure and inventory effectiveness. Further, through our analysis of nonstationarity in demand and resulting returns, we uncover strong main and interaction effects that seasonal demand variation can have on inventory outcomes, even under only moderate levels of seasonality. Our results highlight the need for firms to align logistical structures for returns processing with the returns policy and the external environment, while also lending credence to calls within the logistics literature for improved modeling of nonstationary demand in inventory management research.     

Taking advantage of the gluten-free opportunity: Assortment as the key driver for modern grocery retailers

Over recent years, gluten-free products have shown a significant increase in consumption internationally. Retailers from the modern grocery distribution have the opportunity to take advantage of this positive trend, thus benefitting remarkably in terms of sales and store patronage. The present work is based on the analysis of Italian IRI sell-out data from 2015 to 2019 and aims to verify the role of assortment as an effective retail marketing lever in stimulating gluten-free products sales share compared to that of gluten-containing counterparts. Applying different panel data techniques, we obtained that increasing their assortment share can significantly stimulate gluten-free products sales in general and, within this segment, private label sales in particular.     

The effect of retail assortment size on perceptions,choice, and sales: Review and research directions

We perform a meta-analytic review of the effect of retail assortment size on consumer perceptions, choice, and retail sales/share using a database comprising of 177 studies obtained from 95 academic papers published during 1970–2021. We define assortment size broadly as the total number of distinct alternatives (options) available to the consumer when he/she makes a choice in a product category. This number of alternatives manifest in the form of a number of brands, number of stock-keeping-units (SKUs), or simply number of items such as different colors or packaging. An increase in assortment size can lead to beneficial effects such as assortment preference, perceived choice satisfaction, confidence, freedom, purchase incidence, sales, and profits, as well as negative consequences such as information overload, increased cognitive effort, choice uncertainty, choice difficulty, and hence choice avoidance. Numerous researchers have reported the effect of assortment size on one or more of these factors. We summarize these effects using a metric called assortment size (net) benefit elasticity by positively valuing the beneficial effects and negatively valuing the harmful effects. Assortment size benefit elasticity is defined as the percent change in net benefit for a 1% change in assortment size. Our meta-analysis reveals that the mean assortment size benefit elasticity across 1936 valid elasticity observations is .082, and this effect is moderated by many study design and environmental factors. We also explore nonlinearity in assortment size effect and whether the effect is different for online vs. offline purchasing. Based on these findings, we list 30 characteristics conducive for assortment addition/deletion and specify several directions for future research.     

THE IMPACT OF POINT‐OF‐SALE DATA INACCURACY AND INVENTORY RECORD DATA ERRORS

The presence or absence of error in point‐of‐sale (POS) data and inventory system records directly affects retailer performance. This study identifies various error sources in retail supply chains and studies the influence of inventory and POS (demand) errors in a simulated retail outlet according to fill rate and average inventory. Other things being equal, we find that inventory record error reduces fill rate more than demand error. This study adds further evidence to other studies that suggest the costs caused by errors in POS systems may be overstated.     

The effect of exclusive distribution on the sales of ready-made meals in online retail

This study examines the impact of exclusive distribution on sales for online retailers and the moderating effects of product assortment (width and depth) and within-category competitive intensity on this relationship. This study used panel data for 3285 ready-made meal products which are newly introduced from August 2018 to August 2021 at a leading online grocery retailer in Korea. The random-effects panel regression was applied to test the proposed model. The results show that exclusive distribution increases sales, and this effect is intensified with greater product depth and greater within-category competitive intensity. These findings provide useful implications for retailers to increase their likelihood of success when adopting an exclusive distribution strategy. This study also contributes to expanding the scope of the literature on the effect of exclusive distribution on sales in the context of online retail.     

Sales expectations and inventory changes in retail trade

In this paper a single equation inventory investment model is estimated for the United States retail sector. Monthly data for the 1970s are utilized. In estimating the model it is alternatively assumed that expectations were formed according to a seasonal model, to perfect foresight, and to a narrowly rational expectations model. We find that a model in which expected sales and the expected rate of inflation are narrowly rational can explain most of the variation in retail inventory investment during the time period studied. The results of the estimation imply that retailers have a relatively short forecast horizon, that they can react quickly to either unexpected sales or to a deviation of actual from desired inventory stocks, and that an increase in the real of interest has a statistically negative impact on retail inventory investment.     

AN INVESTIGATION OF THE VALUE OF CROSS‐DOCKING FOR SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT

Cross‐docking is the practice of transferring materials from an incoming shipment directly to an outgoing shipment without storing them at the transfer point. This essentially eliminates the inventory‐holding function of a warehouse and can reduce supply chain costs. We investigate the value of one type of cross‐docking in a variety of supply chain environments.     

Market and Product Diversification: The Evidence From Retailing

This study explored the number of international regions in which retailers operate, the assortment of product categories they offer their customers, and the effects of these market and product category diversification strategies on retail sales volumes. The analysis used sales data about 246 global large-scale retail stores from diverse industries and countries of origin. We found that both strategies have positive effects on retail sales volumes. The two strategies interact such that the positive effect of market expansion on retail sales volumes is larger for retailers who also follow a strategy of greater product category diversity.     

The impact of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance: Evidence from a convenience store chain in China

Despite extensive use of weather data to adjust replenishment and inventory strategies in the retail industry, these companies do clearly know the effect of weather on consumer behavior and retail performance. How does weather affect consumers' purchasing behavior and thus retail performance? We study empirically these questions by analyzing more than 6 million transactions made by more than 1.62 million unique consumers at 146 convenience stores in a convenience store chain in China. We choose sun, rain, temperature, and air quality index as the main weather variables. We use the average number of items per order and the average price of each item in each order as indicators of consumer behavior, and use store daily sales as an indicator of retail performance. We found that under rainy weather, people will buy more products with higher item prices in one order. When temperature rises, people will buy fewer products with a lower item price in one order. In addition, sunny weather and rainy weather have a positive impact on daily sales than cloudy weather. Air quality has a negative impact on daily sales, while temperature has a positive impact on sales. Finally, we study the impact of weather on different product categories. We find that the results depend on the product category characteristics.     

STRATEGIC INVENTORY OPTIMIZATION

A company's inventory metrics are often viewed as critical indicators of its supply chain performance although inventory costs are only a fraction of total supply chain costs comprised of supplier, manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing costs, as well as inventory costs. Moreover, inventories across the supply chain are dependent on acquisition and distribution decisions. We discuss how simulation and optimization models can be combined to integrate analysis of inventory and supply chain network design decisions in performing a total cost analysis. An application of the models to plans for distributing retail products to an expanding network of stores is reviewed.     

Evaluating store location and department composition based on spatial heterogeneity in sales potential

In this paper, we extend a retail location evaluation model with the possibility to include the effect of department size adaptation at the store level. We relate department-level store sales to a store's competitive and demographic environment, thereby providing richer insights into the drivers of department sales than a model of just aggregate sales. Further, we accommodate heterogeneity in consumer characteristics over space by using zip code level data and unobserved spatial effects in department sales by including spatially autocorrelated error terms.Using spatial panel data for 30 clothing stores belonging to one Dutch retail chain, we demonstrate how to use the modeling approach to analyze and predict sales performance of new and existing stores. We show that the predictive performance of our model is superior to that of a benchmark model that does not include spatial autocorrelation.     

Pricing dynamics in US fresh produce channels: new empirical evidence

Despite many valuable contributions, prior research has not completely explained retail pricing behavior. This study employs scanner data for 36 fresh produce items analyzing the relationship between costs of goods sold and retail prices to provide further insight into retail pricing behavior. Implications include: (1) where ‘natural’ variation in produce prices do not already exist from the supplier, retailers appear to introduce the variation themselves, independent from shipping point price; and (2) to the extent that supplier-retailer contracts for fresh produce develop, the resulting stabilizing influence on costs may have the preserve effect of increasing retail price variability to consumers.     

Estimation of product category sales responsiveness to allocated shelf space

A retail chain manager must draw on experience based on data available from his points of sale to diagnose space misallocations in stores and to make recommendations. This paper presents an empirical estimate of shelf space elasticities from a variety store chain database at product category level with a share of space vs. share of sales econometric model. It suggests that external influences could explain space elasticity differences. Results show that space elasticities increase with the impulse buying rate of the product category and do not depend on the type of store.     

How inventory management systems mistreat retail project quantity items and other bimodally distributed products

To insure appropriate inventory levels in retail outlets, replenishment managers concern themselves with both timing of shipments and quantity of product available within the store. While organizations regularly use inventory management or enterprise resource planning systems to procure inventories, we find that these systems can incorrectly manage a sizable group of products found within retail organizations. To illustrate, we explore a collection of goods called retail project quantity items, subsequently explaining how customers purchase and use these items in a fashion that leads to a bimodal distribution of demand. We then employ simulations to demonstrate how the use of a bimodal lead-time demand distribution, rather than a normal or Poisson distribution, improves respective product service levels. Based on these results, we offer a modified reorder point heuristic and discuss how inventory managers should alter existing replenishment processes to insure sufficient stocks of retail project quantity items. Lastly, we discuss broader implications for inventory management systems and bimodally distributed products.     

Cross-category sales promotion effects

We introduce a multivariate binomial logit model measuring cross-category dependence and sales promotion effects of a retail assortment. This model requires as data both the market baskets of individual shoppers and the categories currently promoted in a retail outlet. A special section describes the stepwise procedure used to estimate parameters of this model. Its application is demonstrated analyzing 6147 purchases that were acquired in a medium-sized supermarket. We finally discuss the managerial relevance of this model for sales promotion decisions of retail firms.     

Hurry! Sale Ends Soon: The Impact of Limited Inventory Availability Disclosure on Consumer Responses to Online Stockouts

A prevalent challenge for online retail supply chain managers is maintaining and managing adequate inventory levels to support and fulfill consumer orders and purchases. Interestingly, this challenge is not only about maintaining inventory availability, but also how to effectively disclose and communicate inventory availability, particularly if a stockout occurs. This article investigates a conceptual model that explores the impact of online inventory availability disclosure on consumer perceptions in the context of a stockout. Based on expectation disconfirmation theory, the core of the model is the notion that limited inventory availability would stimulate expected consumer competition, which in turn, causes consumers to not be as negatively impacted by stockouts. Contrary to this prediction, however, the results of this experimental study show that consumers are actually more dissatisfied when low inventory availability items are out‐of‐stock. This is likely due to the combined impacts of a stockout encounter and a “loss” of a competitive shopping scenario. Thus, implications of these findings for future research and supply chain practice are offered accordingly.     

Flatlined: Combatting the death of retail stores

The recent wave of retail bankruptcies as well as poor sales performance has resulted in a large number of store closings. Low sales in store-based retailers can also be attributed to the rapid growth of web-based retailers (largely, Amazon) as well as an excess of store space per capita in the U.S. as compared to other developed nations. Strategies to stem the decline of retail stores include: (1) utilizing omnichannel-based synergies among channels and devices to increase store sales; (2) making stores more attractive and engaging through personalization, interactivity, and a constantly changing environment; and (3) improving productivity through introducing small-size store formats and downsizing existing stores.     

The dimensions of assortment: A proposed hierarchy of assortment decision making

Abstract

The merchandise assortment plays a fundamental role in retailing; it conveys the positioning of the retailer, and is a key determinant of image and patronage. However, existing literature covering a 50-year period is somewhat fragmented. A key problem with the literature is that it does not distinguish between different levels and dimensions of assortment, causing potential ambiguity in their interpretation in the modern retailing context. The lack of standardised terminology could potentially inhibit future assortment research in, for example, assortment measurement. In reviewing the literature, the critical dimensions of assortment are clarified with conceptual definitions and a hierarchical classification of assortment being proposed. Further, the assortment research is examined, identifying an imbalance between operational and strategic assortment research. As retail assortments expand and saturate, the need for assortment measurement research is argued with associated implications for retail management.