Optimal fiscal and monetary policy with sticky wages and sticky prices

We determine the optimal degree of price inflation volatility when nominal wages are sticky and the government uses state-contingent inflation to finance government spending. We address this question in a well-understood Ramsey model of fiscal and monetary policy, in which the benevolent planner has access to labor income taxes, nominally risk-free debt, and money creation. Our main result is that sticky wages alone make price stability optimal in the face of shocks to the government budget, to a degree quantitatively similar as sticky prices alone. Key for our results is an equilibrium restriction between nominal price inflation and nominal wage inflation that holds trivially in a Ramsey model featuring only sticky prices. Our results thus show that when nominal wages are sticky, setting real wages as close as possible to their efficient path is a more important goal of optimal monetary policy than is financing innovations in the government budget via state-contingent inflation. A second important result is that the nominal interest rate can be used to indirectly tax the rents of monopolistic labor suppliers. Taken together, our results uncover features of Ramsey fiscal and monetary policy in the presence of a type of labor market imperfection that is widely-believed to be important.     

Sticky prices and moderate inflation

Recent evidence shows that there is great heterogeneity in the price setting frequency across sectors, and that those changing prices frequently do so even under low inflation. What happens to price setting strategies of sticky price goods under moderate inflation? We built a dataset of monthly newspaper and magazine prices for Colombia, for the period 1960–2005, an exceptional example of prolonged moderate inflation. Within this macroeconomic scenario, and the novel database, we study the frequency of price adjustment, the relative importance of time- and state-dependent theories, and their evolution as inflation declined from moderate rates to single digits.     

Imaginary money against sticky relative prices

This paper considers price setting in pure units of account, linked to the means of payment through managed parities. If prices are sticky in the units in which they are set, parity changes may facilitate equilibrium adjustment of relative prices. The paper derives simultaneously the optimal choice of unit of account by each price setter, and the optimal parity policy. The gains from having multiple units of account are computed for a simple calibrated economy.     

Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices

This paper studies optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky product prices. The theoretical framework is a stochastic production economy. The government finances an exogenous stream of purchases by levying distortionary income taxes, printing money, and issuing nominal non-state-contingent bonds. The main findings of the paper are: First, for a miniscule degree of price stickiness (i.e., many times below available empirical estimates) the optimal volatility of inflation is near zero. Second, small deviations from full price flexibility induce near random walk behavior in government debt and tax rates. Finally, price stickiness induces deviation from the Friedman rule.     

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY WITH THE STICKY INFORMATION MODEL OF PRICE ADJUSTMENT: INFLATION OR PRICE‐LEVEL TARGETING?

I investigate the optimal monetary policy in a New Keynesian macroeconomic framework with the sticky information model of price adjustment. The model is solved for optimal policy, and welfare implications of three alternative monetary policy regimes under this optimal policy are compared when there is a cost‐push shock to the economy. These monetary policy regimes are the unconstrained policy, price‐level targeting and inflation targeting regimes. The results illustrate that optimal policy depends on the degree of price stickiness and the persistence of the shock. Inflation targeting emerges as the optimal policy if prices are flexible enough or the shock is persistent enough. However, the unconstrained policy or price‐level targeting might be preferable to inflation targeting if prices are not very flexible and the shock is not very persistent. The results also show that as prices become more flexible, the welfare loss usually gets bigger.     

Liquidity effects and habit formation in a sticky price model

This paper sets up a sticky price model with external habit formations. It shows that the cross-correlation between output and interest rates as well as prices match the data well when there is habit formation. Consumption as well as output display a hump-shaped response to a positive monetary shock when there is habit formation. The paper also shows that the sticky price model with Abel's (1990, 1999) external habit formation succeeds in generating liquidity effects.     

Labor market search, sticky prices, and interest rate policies

What accounts for the significant real effects of monetary policy shocks? And what accounts for the persistent and hump shaped responses of output and inflation in response to such shocks? These questions are investigated in a model that incorporates labor market search, habit persistence, sticky prices, and policy inertia. While habit persistence and price stickiness are important for the hump shaped output response and the long, drawn out inflation response, respectively, labor market frictions increase the output response and reduce the inflation response relative to an otherwise similar model based on a Walrasian labor market. Significantly, policy inertia itself is found to be the most important factor in accounting for the magnitude of the output effects of policy shocks in the model.     

The hump-shaped behavior of inflation and a dynamic externality

We propose a general equilibrium model that explains the empirical evidence of the hump-shaped response of inflation to a monetary policy shock. The model replaces backward-looking indexation à la Christiano et al. [2005. Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effect of a shock to monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 113(1), 1-45] with a dynamic externality into the production function of firms. The model, armed with sticky wages and variable capital utilization, has two offsetting effects on real marginal cost over the business cycle. First, increasing factor prices raise real marginal cost in response to an expansionary monetary policy shock in the intermediate run. Second, a dynamic externality reduces real marginal cost in the short run because it raises productivity in response to an increase in output following the shock. Overall, the resulting short-run decrease and intermediate-run increase in marginal cost replicate the hump-shaped behavior of inflation under purely forward-looking price and wage Phillips curves.     

Wage setting actors and sticky wages: Implications for the business cycle and optimal monetary policy

Two sticky-wage models are introduced in this paper to examine the implications of having either households or firms as wage setting actors. The rate of wage inflation depends positively on the output gap if households set wages whereas such a relationship is of negative sign when firms set wages. Moreover, impulse–response functions and the statistical comparison with US data show different business cycle properties depending upon wage setting actors. Finally, optimal monetary policy is derived for each case, and compared with a Taylor-type monetary policy rule.     

The price normalization problem in imperfect competition and the objective of the firm

Summary. General equilibrium models of oligopolistic competition give rise to relative prices only without determining the price level. It is well known that the choice of a numéraire or, more generally, of a normalization rule converting relative prices into absolute prices entails drastic consequences for the resulting set of Nash equilibria when firms are assumed to maximize profits. This is due to the fact that changing the price normalization amounts to altering the objective functions of the firms. Clearly, the objective of a firm must not be based on price normalization rules void of any economic content. In this paper we propose a definition of the objective of a firm, called maximization of shareholders' real wealth, which takes shareholders' demand explicitly into account. This objective depends on relative prices only. Real wealth maxima are shown to exist under certain conditions. Moreover, we consider an oligopolistic market and prove the existence of a Nash equilibrium in which each firm maximizes the real wealth of its shareholders. Received: July 10, 1997; revised version: July 27, 1998     

A graphical exposition of a more complete Keynesian system

This paper uses an expanded version of the widely cited Smith model to show the classical natural rate of interest and employment results as a special case of a more general Keynesian model. The model's equilibrium level of employment and real interest rate depend on the inflation rate. The classical results apply to changes in the price level while the Keynesian results apply to changes in the inflation rate. The model assumes inflation is anticipated in equilibrium. Violation of the classical results does not depend on market imperfections such as sticky prices or information costs.     

Asset prices,nominal rigidities,and monetary policy

Should monetary policy respond to asset prices? This paper analyzes this question from the vantage point of equilibrium determinacy. A central bank responding to asset prices is indirectly responding to firm profits. In a model with sticky prices, increases in inflation tend to lower firm profits so that a central bank responding to share prices implicitly weakens its overall response to inflation. This is the novel source of equilibrium indeterminacy highlighted in the paper.     

Policy trade-off in the long run: A new Keynesian model with technological change and money growth

In this study, we introduce a constant rate of technological change and money growth into the standard new Keynesian model, in which both prices and nominal wages are supposed to be sticky. Using such a model, we examine whether a policy trade-off exists between curbing inflation and stabilizing the welfare-relevant output gap in the steady state. If we take only price stickiness into consideration, a policy trade-off does not occur. However, if both nominal wage stickiness and price stickiness are taken into consideration, a policy trade-off occurs.     

How do firms adjust their prices in Turkey? Micro-level evidence

This article investigates the pricing behaviour of Turkish firms over the period 1988–2006 on the basis of firm-level micro data. The duration of prices is found to be 3.9 months on average. There is no clear heterogeneity across main groupings in the frequency of price changes, but more dependence on imported goods reduces price stickiness. Price decreases are less frequent than price increases, indicating downward rigidity in prices. There is evidence in favour of both time and state-dependent price setting behaviours. Further, there is a low degree of synchronization of price changes across firms, whereas price increases tend to be more synchronized than price decreases. Ordered probit models show that price adjustments depend on the type of the shock: the pass-through of a change in the cost is faster than changing demand. Besides, estimated probabilities of price adjustments with 5-years rolling windows reveal that inflation targeting has succeeded in bringing down the probability of price increases, whereas downward price rigidity has not weakened yet.     

Sticky prices or rational inattention – What can we learn from sectoral price data?

This paper derives stylised facts on sectoral inflation dynamics and confronts these facts with two popular theoretical models of price setting. Based on sectoral price responses to macroeconomic shocks estimated from an approximate factor model, we find that the frequency of price changes explains a relevant share of the cross-sectional variation of the speed and size of responses. Moreover, there is little evidence that the volatility of sectoral inflation due to idiosyncratic shocks dampens the size and speed of the responses to macroeconomic shocks. These findings support a multi-sector model with sticky prices rather than a rational-inattention model. We derive the results from different modelling and sampling decisions proposed in the literature, and we find that the explanatory power of the frequency of price changes for the speed of response to a macroeconomic shock proves robust in the face of these decisions. Other results are sensitive with respect to the choice of the factor model and the treatment of outliers.     

The Yugoslav inflation: Some competing hypotheses

Various hypotheses about wage and price inflation in Yugoslavia are presented and tested empirically with quarterly data from the 1962–1972 period. Both theoretical literature and empirical evidence on the behavior of the self-managed firm are used to derive different models of wage determination. The wage-equation results indicate that labor-market conditions, inflationary expectations; and labor-productivity variables are significant determinants of the rate of growth of wages. The price equations, based on a modified cost-markup model consistent with the practices of Yugoslav firms, identify labor costs and aggregate demand as significant determinants of the rate of growth of prices. University of California, Berkeley.     

Evidence on the effects of inflation on price dispersion under indexation

Distortionary effects of inflation on relative prices are the main argument for inflation stabilization in macro models with sticky prices. Under indexation of non-optimized prices, those models imply a nonlinear and dynamic impact of inflation on the cross-sectional price dispersion (relative price or inflation variability, RPV). Using US sectoral price data, we estimate such a relationship between inflation and RPV, also taking into account the endogeneity of inflation by using two- and three-stage least-squares and GMM techniques, which turns out to be relevant. We find an effect of (expected) inflation on RPV, and our results indicate that average (??trend??) inflation is important for the RPV?Cinflation relationship. Lagged inflation matters for indexation in the CPI data, but is not important empirically in the PPI data.     

Learning through experimentation in an oligopoly market with asymmetric information

Unlike previous literature, in which firms compete in the market with the same information, this article analyses a two‐period duopoly game in which only one firm is completely informed about the market conditions, whereas the other firm is unaware of one parameter of the demand curve. In this setting, we describe how the informed firm uses its price set in period 1 in order to reveal or to hide its private information and how the uninformed firm uses its own price in period 1 in order to learn the market conditions when they are not revealed by its rival. Specifically, we obtained the conditions under which the informed firm sets a higher price than its optimum in the first period to hide its private information in certain cases and to reveal that information in others. Likewise, this paper describes the conditions under which the uninformed firm sets a lower price than its optimum in period 1 in order to learn the unknown parameter. We found that the informed firm's cost of revealing its private information to its rival is lower than the uninformed firm's cost of learning the market conditions.     

Price leadership and firm size asymmetry: an experimental analysis

We use laboratory experiments to examine the effect of firm size asymmetry on the emergence of price leadership in a price-setting duopoly with capacity constraints. Independent of the level of size asymmetry, the unique subgame perfect equilibrium of our timing game predicts that the large firm is the price leader. Experimental data show that price leadership by the large firm is frequent, but simultaneous moves are also often observed. Profit outcomes in the previous period affect the subjects’ decisions to announce or wait in a way that hampers convergence to the equilibrium. Furthermore, while both small and large firms display a strong tendency to wait to announce their price when firm size asymmetry is low, they often set prices early when size asymmetry is high. Prices are higher when price setting is sequential rather than simultaneous and when firm size asymmetry is high. Hence, price leadership by either type of firm has an anti-competitive effect that is more pronounced when the size difference between firms is large.     

Reconciling microeconomic and macroeconomic estimates of price stickiness

This paper attempts to reconcile the high estimates of price stickiness from macroeconomic estimates of a New-Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) with the lower values obtained from surveys of firms’ pricing behaviour. This microeconomic evidence also suggests that the frequency with which firms adjust their prices varies across sectors. Building on the insights of Carvalho (2006), we present Monte Carlo evidence that suggests that in the presence of this heterogeneity estimates of the NKPC obtained using conventional methods, such as GMM, are likely to considerably overstate the degree of aggregate price stickiness. Furthermore, if roundabout production is a characteristic of the economy the NKPC will falsely suggest that a sizeable fraction of prices are indexed to past inflation. These problems arise because of a type of misspecification and a lack of suitable instruments.