Earnings Announcements, Asymmetric Information, Trades and Quotes

This paper empirically analyses trades and quotes around the times of 37 earnings announcements in the Paris Bourse. We find that trading volume is larger on announcement days, spreads are wider after announcements, and the permanent positive (resp. negative) price impact of purchases (sales) is greater around announcements. While the findings pertaining to the spread and the permanent impact of trades are consistent with the view that earnings announcements correspond to an increase in information asymmetries, the result that trading volume is larger suggests that other effects are at work.     

Information Asymmetry Around Earnings Announcements

This study examines bid-ask spreads to determine how the anticipation and release of earnings announcements affect information asymmetry in the stock market. I use regression analysis and find that bid-ask spreads are negatively related to public information availability and positively related to earnings variability and the market reaction to prior unexpected earnings. The results suggest that firms for which earnings is expected to yield a relatively larger stock market reaction have greater information asymmetry than firms for which earnings are expected to yield a smaller market reaction.I also find that bid-ask spreads gradually increase in the four days prior to earnings announcements, and increase sharply the day prior to, the day of and the day after the earnings announcements. Bid-ask spreads seven to ten days after earnings announcements are not significantly different from bid-ask spreads seven to ten days prior to earnings announcements.     

Intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic announcements: Australian evidence

This paper examines intraday futures market behaviour around major scheduled macroeconomic information announcements on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE). Prior literature analysing intraday price behaviour around announcements is extended to trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads. The analysis of price volatility, trading volume and quoted bid–ask spreads indicates that the majority of adjustment to new information occurs rapidly, within 240 seconds of the scheduled time for major announcements, with some evidence of abnormal activity prior to announcements. Analysis of quoted bid–ask spreads suggests that they significantly widen in the 20 seconds prior to announcements and remain significantly wider for 30 seconds following announcements. The increase in quoted spreads is related to both expected and unexpected volatility, implying that market participants increase quoted spreads around information announcements as a consequence of adverse selection costs.     

Relationship Between Analyst Forecast Properties and Equity Bid‐Ask Spreads and Depths Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   We study the relationships between three variables which proxy for the ex‐ante level of information asymmetry – forecast dispersion, forecast revision volatility, and the level of analyst coverage, and equity bid‐ask spread and depth changes around quarterly earnings releases. Kim and Verrecchia (1994) suggest that earnings releases increase the level of information asymmetry and lower the level of liquidity in the security market. Using both an OLS regression framework and a simultaneous equations model, we examine whether equity bid‐ask spreads increase and depths decrease as the level of information asymmetry increases. Our results indicate that spreads are higher (relative to a non‐event period) around earnings announcements when information asymmetry is more pronounced; however, depths are lower only on the day following the announcement when there is greater information asymmetry. Relative spreads have a significant positive relation with both forecast dispersion and revision volatility and a significant negative relation with analyst coverage. Relative depths have a significant negative relation with forecast dispersion and a significant positive relation with analyst coverage. Our findings indicate that the equity specialist adjusts both spreads and depths when confronting informed traders around earnings releases and that these adjustments are more pronounced when the level of information asymmetry is greater.     

Does good corporate governance reduce information asymmetry around quarterly earnings announcements?

We examine the relationship between the quality of corporate governance and information asymmetry in the equity market around quarterly earnings announcements. We use the change in market liquidity (i.e., bid–ask spreads and depths) around the announcements as a proxy for information asymmetry. We use principal components analysis to identify three factors, board independence, board structure and board activity, that capture the information in the eight individual corporate governance variables we examine. We then use ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares to estimate the relations between market liquidity changes and the following four explanatory variables: directors’ and officers’ percentage stock holdings, board independence, board structure, and board activity. Our results indicate that changes in bid–ask spreads at the time of earnings announcements are significantly negatively related to board independence, board activity, and the percentage stock holdings of directors and officers. We also find that depth changes are significantly positively related to board structure, board activity, and directors’ and officers’ percentage stock holdings. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that firms with higher levels of corporate governance have lower information asymmetry around quarterly earnings announcements.     

Options and earnings announcements: an empirical study of volatility, trading volume, open interest and liquidity

In this paper we study the impact of earnings announcements on implied volatility, trading volume, open interest and spreads in the stock options market. We find that implied volatility increases before announcement days and drops afterwards. Also option trading volume is higher around announcement days. During the days before the announcement open interest tends to increase, while it returns to regular levels afterwards. Changes in the quoted spread largely respond to higher trading volume and changes in implied volatility. The effective spread increases on the event day and on the first two days following the earnings announcement.     

Liquidity skewness in the London Stock Exchange

We study liquidity on the London Stock Exchange. We find that the average bid-ask spread declines, but that the skewness of the spread increases. These results are robust to firm size, trading volume and price level. Our findings hold when the bid-ask spread is estimated utilising high frequency data. We find that the bid-ask spread prior to earnings announcements dates is significantly higher than that of post earnings announcements, suggesting that asymmetric information has driven the increase in liquidity skewness. We also find that the effect of earnings announcements is more pronounced in the 2007 global financial crisis, consistent with the notion that extreme market downturns amplify asymmetric information. Our overall evidence also implies that increased competition and transparent trading environments limit market makers' abilities to cross-subsidize bid-ask spreads between periods of high and low levels of asymmetric information.     

Earnings Predictability, Information Asymmetry, and Market Liquidity

We investigate the relation between earnings predictability, information asymmetry and the behavior of the adverse selection cost component of the bid-ask spread around quarterly earnings announcements for NASDAQ firms. While we find an increase in the adverse selection component of the bid-ask spread on the day of and the day prior to quarterly earnings announcements for firms with less predictable earnings, we find no evidence of such changes for firms with more predictable earnings. During a non-announcement period, we find that firms with relatively less predictable earnings have consistently higher total bid-ask spreads than firms with more predictable earnings. This finding suggests that firms with relatively less predictable earnings have a higher cost of equity capital than comparable firms with more predictable earning streams, ceteris paribus. Hence, earnings predictability may be a legitimate concern of managers who wish to minimize their cost of equity capital at least as it pertains to bid-ask spreads.     

Information content of earnings announcements in the New Zealand equity market,a longitudinal analysis

We compute abnormal return variance and abnormal trading volume in the 3‐day window surrounding earnings announcements to examine the information content of earnings announcements in the New Zealand equity market over the past 16 years. We find that the information content of earnings announcements has increased significantly over time, and this finding holds true for both interim and preliminary earnings announcements. We find evidence that earnings announcements with June year‐ends exhibit a higher level of information content and experience a more pronounced rising trend as compared to earnings announcements with non‐June year‐ends. Several firm characteristics appear to relate to the level of the information content of earnings announcements as well as to compound the trend over time. We document an important finding that the information content of earnings announcements increases remarkably in the period after the adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS).     

OPEN MARKET STOCK REPURCHASE PROGRAMS AND LIQUIDITY

In this paper I examine the behavior of bid and ask spreads and depths around announcements of open market stock repurchase programs. For a sample of 195 announcements from 1988 to 1990, I find statistically significant evidence of a small decline in spreads and no evidence of a shift in depths following the announcement date. Results are similar for a subsample of firms experiencing post-announcement declines in the number of shares outstanding. I conclude that open market repurchase programs as used recently do not adversely affect market liquidity.     

Stock splits in a retail dominant order driven market

This paper uses intraday and daily data from the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) between 2002 and 2004 to provide evidence that firms use stock splits to bring their stock prices down to a preferred trading range of their clientele base. Stock splits reduce bid–ask spreads and intraday and daily price impact while increasing depths supplied by retail investors who account for 60–70% of trading on the SET. Firms that choose a high split factor experience greater improvement in liquidity. The study finds no evidence that split announcements are used to signal post-split earnings performance.     

Relation Between Predisclosure Information Asymmetry and Trading Volume Reaction Around Quarterly Earnings Announcements

This study investigates the effects of differences in predisclosure information asymmetry on trading volume reaction during quarterly earnings announcements. The analyses show that trading volume reaction to quarterly earnings announcements is positively related to the level of predisclosure information asymmetry and to the magnitude of the price reaction to the announcements. These results are consistent with Kim and Verrecchia's (1991a) theoretical trading volume proposition, and with Atiase and Bamber's (1994) tests of the proposition based on annual earnings announcements. This study also provides evidence on the relation of predisclosure information asymmetry and trading volume before and after quarterly earnings announcements.     

Information Asymmetry and the Dealer's Bid-Ask Spread: A Case Study of Earnings and Dividend Announcements

Recent theoretical work on the bid-ask spread asserts that the dealer should widen the bid-ask spread when he or she suspects that the information advantage possessed by informed traders has increased. Thus, the dealer's spread can be employed to test for an increase in information asymmetry prior to an anticipated information event. In this paper, the method is applied to earnings and dividend announcements, which have been documented to be information events. The authors study three groups of announcements: (a) joint announcements—i.e., earnings and dividend announcements that are made on the same day, (b) initial (first) announcements—earnings or dividend announcements that were not preceded by another announcement in the prior thirty days, and (c) following (second) announcements—those announcements that follow the first announcement by at least ten days but by no more than thirty days. The authors find a strong increase in information asymmetry only before the second announcements and virtually no increase before the joint and first announcements. This is consistent with the hypothesis that there is, on average, normal information asymmetry before announcements, but that the dealer will suspect a nonroutine announcement (with an attendant increase in information asymmetry) when the second announcement is separated from the first by more than ten days. Other possible explanations for the results are discussed, and suggestions for future research are outlined.     

Liquidity skewness

Bid–ask spreads in equities have declined on average but have become increasingly right-skewed. This finding holds across exchanges as well as size, price, and volume quartiles. Higher right-skewness is consistent with more competition among market makers; which may reduce cross-subsidization across periods of high and low asymmetric information, unlike a monopolistic regime that can maintain a relatively constant spread. Confirming this intuition, proportional differences in spreads between earnings announcements and normal periods have increased considerably even as trading costs have declined on average. Skewness also is cross-sectionally related to information proxies such as institutional holdings and analyst following.     

Options trading volume and stock price response to earnings announcements

We examine the effect of options trading volume on the stock price response to earnings announcements over the period 1996–2007. Contrary to previous studies, we find no significant difference in the immediate stock price response to earnings information announcements in samples split between firms with listed options and firms without listed options. However, within the sample of firms with listed options stratified by options volume, we find that higher options trading volume reduces the immediate stock price response to earnings announcements. This conforms with evidence that stock prices of high options trading volume firms have anticipated and pre-empted some earnings information in the pre-announcement period. We also find that higher abnormal options trading volume around earnings announcements hastens the stock price adjustment to earnings news and reduces post-earnings announcement drift.     

Information Content and Timing of Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   The China Securities Regulatory Commission requires all listed firms to make earnings announcements by the end of April each year. This requirement creates a unique opportunity for us to evaluate the timing of earnings announcements in a four‐month cluster. Firms, which are willing to make early announcements, tend to surprise the market, as indicated by the higher volume and price reactions. Later announcements are more predictable, as indicated by the lower volume and price reactions. These results indicate that an information asymmetry exists between early and late earnings announcements in Mainland China.     

Seasonal affective disorder and investors’ response to earnings news

We examined the relationship between seasonal affective disorder (SAD) and investor response to a firm’s quarterly earnings announcements. Our results show that the market’s cumulative abnormal returns are associated with unexpected earnings and with SAD. Investors respond more negatively when earnings are announced in the fall than in other seasons. We also found an asymmetric SAD effect that is more significant for positive earnings announcements, on average. Moreover, the SAD affect is most evident in stocks that are more salient to investors.     

BID-ASK SPREAD COMPONENTS AROUND ANTICIPATED ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper I re-examine spreads around dividend and earnings announcements and provide new evidence on patterns by examining the components of the bid-ask spread. Transaction data are examined through a recently developed spread decomposition model that decomposes the bid-ask spread into a fixed (execution) component and an adverse selection component. In addition, this model does not rely on a constant spread as previous spread decomposition models require. The results show that around earnings announcements, the bid-ask spreads and spread components have significant changes indicating that the anticipated announcement is informative. However, the actual public announcement of a dividend does not alter the bid-ask spread and spread components of actively traded securities.     

Public Predisclosure Information, Firm Size, Analyst Following, and Market Reactions to Earnings Announcements

Abstract:   This study examines the effects of public predisclosure information on market reactions to earnings announcements. We develop an empirical measure of public predisclosure information impounded in price prior to earnings announcements by cumulating abnormal returns on public news release dates during the quarter. Consistent with prior literature, we document a negative association between this measure and market reactions to subsequent earnings announcements. Moreover, we find that after controlling for this measure, firm size and analyst following are significantly positively associated with market reactions to earnings announcements. Contrary to prior empirical evidence, our results suggest that, after controlling for actual predisclosure information impounded in price, market reactions to earnings announcements are greater in magnitude for larger, more widely-followed firms than for smaller, less widely-followed firms.     

The ADR shadow exchange rate as an early warning indicator for currency crises

We develop an indicator for currency crisis risk using price spreads between American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) and their underlyings. This risk measure represents the mean exchange rate ADR investors expect after a potential currency crisis or realignment. It makes crisis prediction possible on a daily basis as depreciation expectations are reflected in ADR market prices. Using daily data, we analyze the impact of several risk drivers related to standard currency crisis theories and find that ADR investors perceive higher currency crisis risk when export commodity prices fall, trading partners’ currencies depreciate, sovereign yield spreads increase, or interest rate spreads widen.