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Assessing the Financial Performance of Forestry-Related Investment Vehicles: Capital Asset Pricing Model vs. Arbitrage Pricing Theory 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and arbitrage pricing theory (APT) are used to assess the financial performance of eight forestry-related investment vehicles. Although results from APT support previous findings from CAPM about timberland investments, three bodies of evidence show that APT findings are more robust. The major conclusions are (a) institutional timberland investments and timberland limited partnerships have a low risk level and excess returns; (b) forestry industry companies have not earned risk-adjusted returns, and the performance of medium forest industry firms is worse than that of large firms; (c) stumpage price does not resemble the return generation process of timberland investments; and (d) lumber futures have little excess return. 相似文献
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《Journal of Property Research》2012,29(1):5-32
Summary Studies which use modern portfolio theory (MPT) to calculate the optimal allocation to property in a multi‐asset portfolio are fundamentally flawed. These suggest optimal theoretical allocations for property which are much higher than actual allocations to property. Criticism can be made of: the exclusion of other eligible assets from the analysis; the use of a mean‐variance optimization technique on estimated data; the inadequacies of the historical data which understates risk and correlation and may overstate return; the changing characteristics of property as an investment; the indivisibility of property and the consequent difficulties in achieving a diversified property portfolio; the complexity of risk as a concept compared to the simple and simplistic definition used in MPT; and the omission of explicit consideration of differential liquidity. An alternative which offers a more practicable framework for decision‐making is a combination of econometric techniques to forecast income under differing economic scenarios and a discounted cash flow valuation model. This would produce a proper expectations‐based analysis of return and risk. However, it will always be important to understand the complexity of investors objectives as these extend far beyond the simple return‐risk trade‐off used in MPT. 相似文献