The linkages,persistence, asymmetry in the volatility,the price discovery and efficiency,and the effect of the US subprime mortgage financial crisis on the spot and the futures market’s returns: the case of India

This article examines the effects of persistence, asymmetry and the US subprime mortgage crisis on the volatility of the returns and also the price discovery, efficiency and the linkages and causality between the spot and futures volatility by using various classes of the ARCH and GARCH models, and through the Granger’s causality. We have used two indices: one for spot and the other for futures, for the daily data from 12 June 2000 to 30 September 2013 from Nifty stock indices. We have then tested for ARCH effects, and subsequently employed various models of the ARCH and GARCH conditional volatility. The GARCH(1,1) model is found to be significant, and it implies that the returns are not autocorrelated and have ‘short memory’. It supports the hypothesis of the efficiency of the markets. The negative ‘news’ has more significant effect on volatility, corroborating the ‘leverage impact’ in finance on market volatility. We have also tested the volatility spillover effects. The two methods we employed support the spillover effects and the causality is bidirectional. We also have used the dummy variable for the US subprime mortgage financial crisis and found that they are statistically significant. Indian stock market is thus integrated to the world stock markets.     

Keynes,Sraffa and the labour market ∗

The paper argues that input–output analysis existed long before it received its name and Wassily Leontief made it popular as a tool of empirical analysis and a foundation of economic policy. It grew out of an attempt to ascertain the capacity of an economic system to reproduce itself and generate a surplus that can be used for various purposes. Primitive pronouncements are encountered in early civilizations, for example Mesopotamia, in terms of the ratio of the amount of grain produced and the amount of it used up, directly and indirectly. These ideas reappeared in a more sophisticated form at the time of the inception of systematic economic analysis in the 17th and 18th centuries in Europe and found a two-sector expression in François Quesnay's Tableau économique. The material input–output structure was then considered the core of the economic system that contained one of the keys to basically all other important economic phenomena and magnitudes. The way in which the potentialities embodied in the input–output structure, conceived as a system of production, have, or have not, been exploited over time define both the problems and perspectives of contemporary input–output analysis. Three aspects will be scrutinized more closely: the problem of value added, the treatment of fixed capital and the problem of technical change. Happily enough, while the problems are huge, the prospects are encouraging. There is no fear that input–output analysts will soon have to look for new fields of research because the old ones have been exhausted.     

Leaders, self-confidence, and hubris: what's the difference?

Success can easily breed hubris. As leaders become more confident, their success can limit their learning because they develop repetitive patterns of filtering information based on past successes and discount information that does not agree with their patterns of success. It is important for leaders to stay grounded in reality and effective as their success grows. Humility, gratitude, and appreciation will avoid the overconfidence that leads to hubris. Building confidence in others is the mark of a great leader. Hubris is not.     

Detrimental externalities, pollution rights, and the “Coase theorem”

This paper, which builds on Chipman (The economist’s vision. Essays in modern economic perspectives, 131–162, 1998), analyzes a simple model formulated by Hurwicz (Jpn World Econ 7:49–74, 1995) of two agents—a polluter and a pollutee—and two commodities: “money” (standing for an exchangeable private good desired by both agents) and “pollution” (a public commodity desired by the polluter but undesired by the pollutee). There is also a government that issues legal rights to the two agents to emit a certain amount of pollution, which can be bought and sold with money. It is assumed that both agents act as price-takers in the market for pollution rights, so that competitive equilibrium is possible. The “Coase theorem” (so-called by Stigler (The theory of price, 1966) asserts that the equilibrium amount of pollution is independent of the allocation of pollution rights. A sufficient condition for this was (in another context) obtained by Edgeworth (Giorn Econ 2:233–245, 1891), namely that preferences of the two agents be “parallel” in the money commodity, whose marginal utility is constant. Hurwicz (Jpn World Econ 7:49–74, 1995) argued that this parallelism is also necessary. This paper, which provides an exposition of the problem, raises some questions about this result and provides an alternative necessary and sufficient condition.     

Divorce and the Birth Control Pill in the US, 1950–85

This paper explores the relationship between the advent of the birth control pill and divorce rates. Women using the pill can decide when and whether to have children and whether to maintain their attachment to the labor force. This ability may increase women's autonomy, making divorce more feasible. The pill's effects are identified through a quasi-experiment exploiting differences in the language of the Comstock anti-obscenity statutes approved in the late 1800s and early 1900s in the United States. Empirical evidence from state-level data on US divorce rates 1950 to 1985 shows that sales bans of oral contraceptives have a negative impact on divorce. These findings are robust to alternative specifications and controls for observed (such as women's labor force participation) and unobserved state-specific factors, and time-varying factors at the state level. Results suggest that the impact of women's control of hormonal contraception on their autonomy is important in divorce decisions.     

The Analysis and Assessment of the Creation Investment Risk in the High and New Technology, Enterprise

The creation risk investmentof the high and new technology enterprise isthe way to finance：and invest for the business period. After we putting the capital into the high and new. technology project.that is in the devetopment stage, the enterprise can, acquire high, increase, by the. support and assistance ＇of, the. capital and management. After the enterprise grew up, it can achieve high benefits by selling stock, attorning the enterprise, and dealing property rights, etc. Finally it secedes form the enterprise invested. The purpose of total analysis in the respective stage for the business investment cause including cause prosperities, object, risk, is to comprehensively understand the effect on the anticipation ratio of the benefit, investment distribution, the stock property proportion which is offered by the activity content, and the emphasis of the assessment in the respective stages of the creation risk investment cause.     

Sector-specific capital, “Bang-bang” investment,and the Filippov solution

Bang-bang investment in a two-sector growth model with immobile capital is rational and leads to a unique and globally stable long-run equilibrium along a sliding trajectory. This steady state coincides with the stationary equilibrium in the traditional model with non-sector-specific capital.This article was written while the authors were visiting scholars at Cornell University. We gratefully acknowledge financial assistance from the Erasmus University Trust Fund and the Netherlands Scientific Organization. We would like to thank, without implicating, two anonymous referees, Martijn Herrmann, Jean-Marie Viaene, Claus Weddepohl, and the participants of seminars at the University of Maryland, the University of Montreal, and Erasmus University Rotterdam for perceptive remarks and useful comments. Jeroen Hinloopen and Rien Wagenvoort provided able graphical assistance. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the World Bank.     

Pigou,Del Vecchio,and Sraffa: the 1955 International “Antonio Feltrinelli” Prize for the Economic and Social Sciences

In 1955, the Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei awarded the inaugural International “Feltrinelli” Prize for the Economic and Social Sciences to Arthur Cecil Pigou. This paper considers Gustavo Del Vecchio's active role on the selection committee in recommending Pigou for the Feltrinelli Prize and the related correspondence between Pigou, Piero Sraffa, and Del Vecchio. One of the most significant discovery reported in this paper is Sraffa's contention, expressed in an unpublished letter to Del Vecchio, that Pigou had “never been honoured in proportion to his merits.”     

Region? Why Region? Security,Hermeneutics, and the Making of the Black Sea Region

In the context of post–Cold War European integration, ‘making’ regions has become commonplace. Far from reducing the significance of regional initiatives, inflationary regional labelling draws attention to the significant role played by ‘regions’ as legitimating political vectors. Why are political projects formulated in regional terms? Critically examining the Black Sea region project, this article suggests that region-making transcends the boundary between theoretical and political praxis. Regional entrepreneurs frequently use different conceptual categories in the formulation and justification of their initiatives. In order to understand why regional forms are preferred politically, it is necessary to scrutinise closely this contextual interaction between political praxis and conceptual logic. The article maps the various concepts of region which coexist in the Black Sea region project, and discusses their relationship with four political and hermeneutical strategies that link the regional project with its context, profoundly marked by the logic of European security integration. The ‘double hermeneutics’ of the Black Sea region highlights the contradictory security logics that structure European security in general and this regional project in particular. In the conclusion, the article draws attention to the significant epistemological and normative consequences of the double hermeneutics of the Black Sea region.     

Trade liberalization,intra-industry trade and the environment: competition mode and the order of firms’ moves

This paper explores the implications of trade liberalization by extending the intra-industry trade framework à la Fung and Maechler (J Int Trade Econ Dev 16(1):53–69, 2007) to the case of sequential move and taking the mode of firms’ competition into consideration as well. It is shown that the existing results obtained for the case of simultaneous price competition are robust in quantity competition and sequential move cases. Moreover, it studies the likelihood that the environmental effects of trade liberalization occur.

Balance of payments,the Harrod foreign trade multiplier and economic growth: the European and North American experience, 1970–85

This paper examines the assoication between Canadian unions and their member' attitudes. Data on job satisfaction indicate that unionized workers in Canada are less happy with the quality of their jobs than non-union workers. The former, however, are more satisfied with their financial compensation and job security than non-members.     

How to improve the ability of listening,speaking,reading and writing

一、Introduction The purpose of middle school English teaching is to improve the students' four skills of listening, speaking, reading and writing, with the base of necessary phonetics, large vocabulary and good grammar, But this is not the final purpose. The final purpose is to lot let students be able to use the language.     

Learning,experience and the dynamics of north–south Trade and technology transfer

This paper examines the dynamics of learning and experience that underlie technology transfer using a North-South trade model with a continuum of goods. Since North is historically more experienced than South, it initially produces the most advanced goods and pays higher wages. Whenever there is a market-driven transfer of technology and production over time, there will be some wage convergence as South gradually gains experience. Nevertheless, wage inequality must persist in the steady state. Product innovation typically increases steady-state wage inequality because new goods are produced in North, and North ultimately learns than South. [F12, O19]     

Australian financial firms’ exposures to the level,slope, and curvature of the interest rate term structure

This study examines the risk exposure of Australian financial firms to changes in the term structure of interest rates. Non-linearity in the interest rate term structure is captured by the three-factor model of interest rate level, slope, and curvature. We observe that financial firms have negative exposures to the interest rate level, while non-financial firms have positive exposures. This finding suggests that financial firms need to hedge against rising interest rates, while non-financial firms need to hedge against falling interest rates. Small banks and insurance companies have a positive risk exposure to the slope factor, while real estate firms have a negative risk exposure to the curvature factor. Though the interest rate level is the most important factor, ignoring the slope and curvature factors could lead to underestimating a financial firm’s overall interest rate risk exposure. These findings are robust to controlling for the orthogonalized market return, time-varying equity risk premium, and the global financial crisis. This study offers practical tools to regulators, such as the Reserve Bank of Australia and Australian Prudential Regulatory Authority for assessing interest rate risk exposures of the financial and non-financial sectors.     

Career Paths,Unemployment, and the Efficiency of the Labor Market: Should Youth Employment Be Subsidized?

This paper studies the implications of learning‐by‐doing on youth unemployment and market efficiency when workers benefiting from this kind of training experience search (while on the job) for a higher skill job. Firms with low‐skill jobs suffer from a poaching behavior by firms with high‐skill jobs, causing a shortage of low‐skill jobs and excessive youth unemployment. An optimal policy, consisting of taxing the output of high‐skill jobs and subsidizing the output of low‐skill jobs, restores market efficiency and reduces youth unemployment.     

Return, purchase, or skip? Outcome, duration, and consumer behavior in the rent-to-own market

Rent-to-own (RTO) is attractive to financially distressed consumers. It allows immediate access to merchandise and an opportunity for eventually acquisition. Yet goods can be returned at any point without penalty or other adverse consequences. We use a competing risk methodology that accounts for unobserved consumer heterogeneity to study how contracts conclude, estimating the probabilities of exit??via return, purchase, or skip??and the associated durations. The estimated outcome probabilities highlight the use of the embedded return option by RTO consumers and the trade-offs and cross-subsidization implicit in the RTO contractual arrangement. We offer rational and behavioral explanations of consumer behavior in the RTO market, which we believe can be generalized to other consumer loan markets.     

Say’s Law,Marxian Crisis Theory and the Interconnectedness of the Capitalist Economy

ABSTRACT

Scholars have long debated exactly why Marx felt that general gluts were not just possible, but inevitable. This article argues that Theories of Surplus Value anchored that necessity in the complex interconnectedness that characterizes capitalist production. There, Marx’s criticism of Say’s Law builds on a version of crisis theory that begins with raw material shortages in a leading sector. The disturbance is then transmitted through the many inter-industry linkages in the capitalist economy. What starts as a supply-side shock in a leading sector is transformed into a broad crisis of aggregate demand as workers are laid off and businesses fall into insolvency. This article argues that Marx’s later discussion of other types of crises in Capital can be read as consistent with this approach. A severe profit squeeze in a leading sector (whether originating in intermediate good prices, market demand, rising wages or rising use of fixed capital) necessarily turns into a general glut. In this context, Say’s Law becomes an irrelevant theorem concerning an imaginary economy. What Marx sees as fundamentally new under capitalism is not the use of money and the separation of sale and purchase, but massive interconnectedness.