森林认证对中国林产品出口影响的实证分析

采用引力模型中“单国模式”,利用面板数据研究森林认证对中国林产品出口的影响。实证研究表明,中国对主要出口的24个国家的林产品出口额受到进口国的人口数量、中国与进口国之间的直线距离以及进口国对森林认证的重视程度的综合影响,其中人口数量的增加促进了我林产品出口额的增长,而国与国之间的距离以及进口国对森林认证的重视程度阻碍了中国林产品的出口。     

论当代发展中国家的保护性关税政策的终结

论当代发展中国家的保护性关税政策的终结中国社科院研究生院刘力一、当代发展中国家保护性关税政策的理论基础。发展中国家在独立前一般是单一的初级产品生产国和发达国家工业品的进口国。发展中国家出口初级产品，发达国家出口工业品构成了当时的国际贸易格局。按照传统...     

基于MRIO模型的全球贸易内涵碳流向分析

贸易与气候变化体制的关系越来越密切,它影响一国排放和全球应对气候变化的效果。基于全球多区域投入产出模型和GTAP8最新数据库,本文计算了全球12个国家和地区2004年和2007年贸易内涵碳流向。结果显示,发达国家主要是贸易内涵碳净进口国,发展中国家主要为贸易内涵碳净出口国。中国是最大的内涵碳输出地,贸易成为中国碳排放的重要驱动力。电力行业与运输服务业是排放贡献最大的行业,机械设备制造业和运输服务业等行业是内涵碳排放最高的行业。随着发达国家出口贸易比重下降,发展中国家比重上升,贸易发展和排放转移会由于发展中国家排放系数更高导致全球排放净增长。因此,在新的国际气候体制设计中要协调好贸易与应对气候变化的关系,国内要采取行动减少排放,并积极制定应对气候政策影响的措施。     

减少监管分歧会促进服务贸易增长吗?

随着服务贸易自由化的不断推进,各国在服务贸易领域的监管分歧逐渐扩大并形成主要的贸易壁垒。文章利用扩展的引力方程对2011～2015年度44个国家15个行业的双边服务贸易数据进行检验。研究发现,如果进口国或出口国具有很高的服务贸易壁垒,那么服务贸易壁垒将削弱监管分歧的影响。除此之外,文章还对行业的分样本、不同政策类别以及国家分样本的影响进行实证检验,研究结果显示,监管分歧对法律、保险、商业银行、电信、邮政和信使这5个行业影响较大;减少在外资进入、人员流动、竞争壁垒、监管透明度这4个方面的监管分歧会促进服务出口。研究表明,有效降低监管分歧能够缩小发展中国家与发达国家之间长期存在的服务贸易逆差,促进发达国家和发展中国家服务贸易的平衡发展。     

信贷约束、出口模式与社会福利

信贷约束与企业出口行为的关系近年来引起越来越多的关注,不过目前尚没有文献分析信贷约束对于企业出口模式的影响。本文在内部化理论的框架下,构建模型分析了信贷约束对于企业出口模式及社会福利的影响。分析显示,如果出口国金融市场存在不完全性,则出口企业面临的信贷约束越高,越倾向于在进口国市场选择代销模式。相反,如果进口国金融市场存在不完全性,则当地代理企业面临的信贷约束越高,出口国企业越倾向于在进口国市场选择直销模式。企业的出口模式会影响进口国与出口国的社会福利水平,出口国的福利水平在直销模式下要高于代销模式下,进口国的福利水平则在代销模式下要高于直销模式下。因此信贷约束无论是发生在出口国还是进口国,都会对当地社会的福利水平产生负面影响。     

“碳关税”与贸易保护主义是一回事吗?

作为全球第一大出口国和第二大进口国,中国和发达国家之间不仅存在着国际贸易收支的不平衡,积累了大量的贸易顺差,同时也存在着碳排放的严重不平衡。中国出口的产品多为高耗能、高含碳、高污染的产品如钢铁、机电和纺织品,而进     

国外对我国施行反倾销的原因分析

理论上讲,只有出口国企业采取了不公平的贸易手段时进口国才可以采取反倾销措施来保护本国企业免遭损害.但是,近年来欧美等发达国家和印度等发展中国家对华反倾销立案数量急剧上升.文章对产生此现象的原因进行了深入分析.     

劳工标准与高劳动技能资本密集型产品出口——基于不同发展水平国家和不同出口时期的分析

文章基于1981~2011年98个国家的数据,采用多元处理效应模型,将全样本时期分为出口上升期和出口下降期,按照经济发展水平将样本国家划分为高水平发达国家、低水平发达国家、高水平发展中国家、低水平发展中国家,研究了劳工标准在全样本时期、出口上升期和出口下降期对不同发展水平国家高劳动技能资本密集型产品出口的影响。实证发现:劳工标准对不同发展水平国家的高劳动技能资本密集型产品出口的影响不同,在一国由低水平发展中国家→高水平发展中国家→低水平发达国家→高水平发达国家的发展过程中,劳工标准对高劳动技能资本密集型产品出口影响的演进过程为没有影响→促进→促进→抑制。劳工标准对高劳动技能资本密集型产品出口的影响在出口上升期以负向影响为主,下降期以正向影响为主。     

乌拉圭回合与新的纺织品贸易规则

《多种纤维协定》原是一个过渡性的安排，其基本原意是，保证纺织品贸易均衡有序地发展，并逐步取消纺织品贸易障碍，逐渐实现世界纺织品贸易自由化，保障发展中国家的纺织品出口能够不断扩大，同时也避免使纺织品进口国的个别市场或个别产品遭到某些进口冲击并造成损害，但是由于发达国家产业机构调整缓慢，贸易保护主义抬头，所以，不但《多种纤维协定》的基本目标未能实现，而且其本身也由过渡性安排变成了一个制约纺织品贸易发展的特别体制，限制范围也不断扩大，成为当前国际贸易中的最大非关税贸易障碍，无论是纺织品出口国还是纺织品进口国都深受其害，据世界银行1990年5月发表的一种研究报告的统计，《多种纤维协定》所形成的障碍不仅使发展中国家每年造成约80亿美元的损失，而且使进口国的消费者每年要多花数10亿美元的成本购买服装及其他纺织品，因此，不论是发达国家还是发展中国家，都意识到《多种纤维协定》对国际纺织品贸易的发展造的损害及其严重背离关贸总协定所倡导的自由贸易原则的倾向。     

环境管理体系认证的出口贸易效应——基于包含多边阻力项引力模型的实证研究

文章从出口国、进口国以及二者的联合作用三个方面,系统分析了环境管理体系认证在全球的快速扩散对一国出口贸易的各种影响机制,并运用包括多边阻力项和工具变量的引力模型,基于全球128个国家2000~2012年的宏观数据进行了全样本和按国家收入水平进行分组的实证检验。结果表明,环境管理体系认证在出口国的扩散会通过竞争力效应促进一国出口,但这一效应只存在于中低收入国家,高收入国家认证扩散率的提高对其出口没有影响;认证没有形成绿色贸易壁垒,进口国认证扩散率提高引致的促进出口的信息效应总体上要大于抑制出口的合规成本效应;进口国和出口国认证扩散率的同时上升只在中低收入国家间具有显著的促进出口的共同语言效应,其他情况下都会抑制出口贸易。上述结论反映出,当前环境管理体系认证作用于出口贸易的内在机制并不是因为认证改变了不同国家企业生产的相对环境成本,而是源于认证的信号显示功能对国际贸易中交易成本的节约。各国政府特别是中低收入国家政府需要在鼓励企业进行认证的同时,加强对认证机构的资质审核,强化标准的实施监控。     

Flying with the Dragon: Estimating Developing Countries’ Gains from China's Imports

As a large trading nation, China competes with importing countries’ domestic and third‐country markets but also creates growth opportunities for exporters. Most studies on China trade shocks or “China shocks” focuse on the impacts of import competition on developed economies. The present paper complements research on China shocks by exploring the other side of the trade exposure to China – China as the largest importer, rather than as an exporter. We analyze the effects of export expansion into China on the local labor markets of the exporting developing countries for the years 1992 to 2018. Using detailed export and employment data, we estimate employment pattern variations in manufacturing industries with exports from other developing countries as instruments for export exposure. We find that the increase in trade exposure to China in the world economy has caused extensive job gains in manufacturing industries in developing countries that were exporters. On average, our estimations show that this trade exposure created approximately 1.5 million additional jobs from 1992 to 2018, which made an important contribution to manufacturing industries in developing countries. Our empirical analysis also shows that trade had stabilizing effects on employment in the countries in our sample generally.     

Uniform versus Discriminatory Tariffs: When Will Export Taxes Be Used?

This paper examines the noncooperative interactions between two exporting countries and one importing country when all of them are seeking the optimal policies to improve their welfare. Whereas the importing country has the incentive to impose tariffs on the goods coming from the two exporting countries, the export policies chosen by the exporting countries depend on the tariff regime, whether uniform or discriminatory tariffs are used. It is argued that export taxes are chosen by both exporting countries in some cases, and that whereas the importing country prefers a uniform tariff regime, the exporting countries find a discriminatory tariff regime preferable.     

中国服务贸易国际地位与竞争力比较

国际服务贸易的发展呈现出新的特征:服务可贸易性大大提高,技术知识密集性服务贸易发展很快,发展中国家在服务贸易中的地位在上升,服务贸易壁垒更加隐蔽化。中国的服务贸易虽然在改革开放后有了较大发展,但国际竞争力仍然较低。主要体现在:服务贸易开放度不高;年增长率较高但相当一部分靠进口维持;国际占有率不高;技术、知识型服务偏低。中国服务贸易的显示比较优势指数不仅低于发达国家,甚至与一些发展中国家也有差距。     

Firms’ exporting and importing activities: is there a two-way relationship?

The literature on firm heterogeneity and trade has highlighted that most trading firms tend to engage in both importing and exporting activities. This paper provides some evidence that helps understanding to what extent this is the result of a two-way relationship. Using firm-level data for a group of 27 Eastern European and Central Asian countries from the World Bank Business Environment and Enterprise Performance Survey (BEEPS) over the period 2002–2008, we estimate a bivariate probit model of exporting and importing. After controlling for size (and other firm-level characteristics) we find that firms’ exporting activity does not increase the probability of importing, while the latter has a positive effect on foreign sales. This effect is mainly channeled through an increase in firm productivity and product innovation.     

“出口导向”贸易战略回眸与下一步“中性”贸易战略的提出

出口导向的对外贸易发展战略已不能适应我国对外贸易发展的需要。为优化资源配置效率,改善出口国际环境,我国可实行中性贸易战略。中性贸易战略包括通过国际规范的政策措施推动出口贸易的发展、加快制定并实施进口策略、实施有管理的贸易自由化政策。以及挖掘大国的国内市场优势等。     

Multilateral Export Decompositions

We analyze exports along five margins to observe the changes of newly exported products, products removed from the export market, and continuously traded products to new, old, and exited destinations on export growth. We find export shares differ between developing and developed countries: 1) entering and exiting products are an important source of export value, but more so for developing than developed countries, 2) that continuously exported products to new destinations are a more important source of export value for developing than developed countries, 3) that though the removal of exiting products has a large impact on export value, the removal of products from one destination that continue to be exported elsewhere results in little loss to total export value, and 4) that larger and richer exporting countries have less opportunity to increase exports from new destinations than smaller and poorer exporting countries. Understanding the change in these margins across different types of countries may be important for formulating trade agreements and targeting of new trade partners.     

食品安全壁垒对我国食品出口的影响、原因及对策研究

随着经济全球化发展,食品国际贸易量不断攀升,世界各国对食品安全问题日益高度关注,我国食品在走向国际化的过程中频频遭遇进口国的食品安全壁垒的重创,本文深入分析国外食品安全壁垒对我国食品出口带来的影响,探讨我国食品出口受阻的原因,在分析探讨的基础上,研究我国如何采取有效措施突破国外食品安全壁垒,以提高我国食品的国际竞争力。     

International trade credit and exchange rates: A survey among dutch firms

Summary This paper reports on a survey among a sample of 72 Dutch exporting and/or importing firms. The purpose of the study was to determine to what extent fluctuations in the timing of exchange transactions (leads and lags) are possible. Among other things, therefore, the firms were asked how much trade credit they give or receive and in which currency payments have to be made. The study also addressed the question of whether `Grassman's rule' - trade in manufactured goods between developed countries is mainly invoiced in the exporter's currency - applies to the Netherlands.The stimulating criticism of Casper G. de Vries and Prof. Jean-Marie Viaene on an earlier version of this paper and the valuable suggestions by a referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

Reorganization of Intra‐ASEAN 5 Trade Flows: The ‘China Factor’*

There are claims that China's influence on ASEAN is direct in that she has encouraged more exports to flow into her huge markets and changed trade flows among member countries. Demand and supply are thus deemed to have become more China‐centered. This study therefore explores the plausibility of China as a ‘factor’ that influences bilateral intra‐ASEAN 5 trade flows through demand (exporting country) and supply (importing country). The results imply that China's integration in the region increases the size of the key ASEAN member economies export market. There is also no indication that import sourcing from China by ASEAN 5 countries reduces export expansion within the latter. The results accord with the fact that although China has become an important export destination and an import source for individual ASEAN 5 countries, this has not reduced intra‐ASEAN 5 trade.     

碳关税对我国外贸产生的影响及应对策略

气候大会的相继召开说明各国越来越重视气候变化,发展低碳经济已经成为世界共识。发达国家提出碳关税的概念,以求减少全球二氧化碳排放,引起了以中国为首的发展中国家强烈的反对。主要介绍碳关税的含义、由来以及目前实施的现状,分析征收碳关税将对我国外贸产生的巨大影响,最后从国内和国际两个层面提出应对碳关税的措施。