Surviving the gales of creative destruction: the determinants of product turnover

Innovative industries are often characterized by rapid product turnover. Product longevity may be driven by both a product's position within a market as well as its position within a firm's larger product portfolio. However, we have little understanding of the relative importance of these factors in determining product turnover and how they interact as an industry evolves. Although researchers have invested substantial effort in analyzing firm survival and turnover, there are far fewer studies of the determinants of product survival and turnover. We use hazard rate models and count regression models to describe the behavior of firms and their products with a new and detailed database on the laser printer industry. We show, first, that competition and market structure variables have a large impact on both speeding product exit and delaying product entry. Second, there is some evidence that firms that have maintained a high market share for a number of years keep their products on the market longer than those with lower market share. Finally, firms with high innovative capacity tend to enter markets frequently, but withdraw their products at average rates. Firms with strong brands tend to introduce few products and withdraw their products slowly. With these findings, the paper links product entry and exit decisions to the broader literature on firm strategic and product management. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An Ecological Perspective on New Product Failure: The Effects of Competitive Overcrowding

Practitioners and researchers have carefully explored the causes of new product failures. Studies have been conducted, results analyzed, and recommendations offered. Yet despite these efforts, new product failure rates have not decreased. In fact, they appear to be increasing in some product categories. Are we missing something? Noting that most research on new product failures has focused on a firm's activities in specific projects, William H. Redmond proposes that new product outcomes might also be influenced by macro-level or environmental factors. By focusing on environmental factors rather than a firm's activities in specific projects, we might better understand why competent firms in one industry consistently experience higher failure rates than those of firms that are no more competent, but operate in a different industry. For example, failure rates for new food products are consistently higher than those for new industrial products. With no evidence that product development professionals in industrial firms are simply superior to their counterparts in the food industry, Dr. Redmond suggests that we need to look beyond specific product development projects and consider the effects of the market in which these products are introduced. Encouraged by past successes, many firms in the food manufacturing business seek sales growth through the development and introduction of additional new products. Over time, this creates a market in which customer demand is fragmented into increasingly small niches and distribution channels are flooded with product choices. As a result, the failure of a new product is more likely than it might have been under less crowded conditions. In much the same way that the population of deer on an island is limited by the available food and physical space, food products are apparently faced with the market equivalent of natural selection. In the absence of available market niches and a clear competitive advantage, a new product's chances for success are meager. In a market that is overcrowded by existing products and new product introductions, it becomes increasingly difficult and uneconomical to identify opportunities for meaningful differentiation. On the other hand, industrial products face a much different set of environmental conditions. Compared to the food manufacturing business, relatively few new industrial products are introduced, and those introductions are typically successful. In most cases, the new products are simply replacements for inefficient or obsolete products. In such an environment, failed introductions are probably the result of errors in the product development process.     

Technological capability, social capital and the launch strategy for innovative products

The Launch strategy for innovative products is a crucial strategic typology adopted by many high tech firms, and which has been identified in prior research focusing on new product introduction to the market. However, the nexus between launch strategies and firm resources has gained little research attention. This article therefore aims to investigate the influence of technological capability and social capital, two key resources for innovation in high tech firms, on the adoption of a launch strategy for innovative products. Furthermore, prior research has revealed that market characteristics play a moderating role on the relationship between firm resources and company strategies; thus, this study also examines the moderating effect of market characteristics. This study takes Taiwan's integrated circuit design firms as the analytical sample. Based on a sample of ninety companies, two interesting findings have been found. First, both technological capability and social capital are associated positively with the launch strategy for innovative products. Second, while the market growth rates increase, the positive relationship between technological capability and the launch strategy for innovative products becomes weaker.     

How New Product Introductions Affect Sales Management Strategy: The Impact of Type of "Newness" of the New Product

How do firms adjust sales management strategy for new product launch? Does sales management strategy change more radically for different types of new products such as new‐to‐the‐world products versus product revisions? Because firms introducing a new product rely considerably on their sales force in the product launch effort, the types and degree of changes made in managing the selling effort are important issues. Past studies have demonstrated that firms make substantial adjustments in their sales management strategy when they introduce a new product. This study expands on previous investigations by examining whether sales management strategy changes are conditioned by the type of newness of the new product to the market and to the firm. Australian sales managers were asked to respond to a mail questionnaire concerning pre‐ and post‐new product launch sales management activities. Three groups of firms were compared: (1) those with new‐to‐the‐market and new‐to‐the‐firm products (i.e., new‐to‐the‐world products); (2) those with products new to the firm but not new to the market; and (3) those with products that are revisions to the firm and not new to the market. The study finds that firms do not make the most adjustments for products with the greatest degree of market newness—the new‐to‐the‐world types of products—except in the sales management strategy categories of compensation and supervision. In the other sales management strategy categories defined for study—organization, training, quotas and goals, and sales support as well as for all categories in the aggregate—sales management strategy changes were greatest in incidence, as measured both by the percent of firms making changes and the average number of changes per firm, when the new product was new to the firm but not new to the market. These results suggest that, because different types of new products face different competitive environments, there may be greater incentive for a not‐new‐to‐the‐market new‐to‐the‐firm product to make changes in sales strategy. Uncertainties about market size and customer location with new‐to‐the‐world products may limit the understanding of what changes to make in the strategy categories of quotas and territories. Similarly, uncertainties about product use and customer acceptance of new‐to‐the‐world products may limit the development of training and sales support materials by these firms. Instead, these firms may rely more on compensation and supervision to direct sales efforts for new‐to‐the‐world products. However, observing the market experience and performance of the first‐to‐market product can benefit firms launching a not‐new‐to‐market and new‐to‐the‐firm product, allowing them to rely more on strategy changes in training, sales support materials, organizational adjustments such as redeployments, and quotas.     

New Product Strategies of Large, Dominant Product Manufacturing Firms: An Exploratory Analysis

Although researchers have expended considerable effort exploring the links between new product strategy and firm-level performance, most studies of this subject focus on small- to medium-sized firms. Compared to smaller firms, however, large companies typically maintain broader portfolios of products and have easier access to capital markets. Such fundamental differences suggest the need for closer examination of the relationship between new product strategy and the performance of large firms. Based on a study of 459 new products introduced during a 5-year period, Richard W. Firth and V. K. Narayanan profile the new product strategies of 18 large companies. They examine the methods used to acquire new products (internal development or external sources) as well as three dimensions of each firm's new product introductions: newness of embodied technology, newness of market application, and innovativeness in the market. In other words, these profiles identify the degree to which a firm's new product introductions involve core technologies and markets that are new to the firm, as well as the degree to which the market views these products as innovative. Because new product strategy is an investment decision, the study also examines the relationship between these strategic profiles and two facets of firm-level performance: risk and return. The study identifies five archetypes of new product strategy: Innovators, who produce innovative products by using their existing resources; Investors in Technology, who focus on expanding their technological base. Searching for New Markets, firms that venture into unfamiliar markets by introducing products closely aligned with those in their existing portfolios; Business as Usual, firms that rely on existing technologies and products to serve existing markets; and Middle-of-the-Road, firms content to introduce new products rated as low to moderate along all three dimensions of the strategic profile. For new products closely aligned with their core markets and technologies, the firms in this study typically rely on internal development. To introduce products involving new technologies or market applications, they turn to acquisition from external sources. Firms that emphasized market innovativeness in their new product introductions enjoyed higher returns than less innovative firms. And contrary to conventional wisdom, they gained this advantage without an accompanying increase in risk. In other words, continual innovation might provide a large firm with the means for achieving higher returns without higher risk.     

On commodity taxation in vertically differentiated markets

We examine the impact of commodity taxation on vertically differentiated product markets when entry is allowed. We show that an ad valorem tax may have a dramatic effect on market structure by inducing the entry of a large number of firms in what was previously a natural monopoly. The producers of high quality products reduce market share after an increase in their unit production cost, leaving more room for lower quality products. While within a given market structure aggregate quality decreases monotonically with the tax rate, quality jumps upwards at tax rates that cause a change in market structure.     

Strategic orientations and new product commercialization: mediator,moderator, and interplay

Why are some firms more successful at commercializing new products than others in emerging economies? It is possible that the strategic orientations, which firms adopt as a type of business strategy, lead at least partially to the superior performance of the new products they introduce to the market. Strategic orientations facilitate a match between firm strategy and resource endowment, on the one hand, and the adaptation to market conditions, on the other. In this paper, we empirically test whether four major types of strategic orientations (market orientation, technology orientation, entrepreneurial orientation, and networking orientation) are simultaneously related to new product commercialization performance using data collected from China. We find that strategic orientations are positively related to three aspects of new product commercialization, namely new product advantage, new product newness, and number of new products introduced to the market. Interestingly, we find that pairs of strategic orientations support each other in exerting their impacts on new product commercialization performance. In addition, we find that organizational learning mediates the effects of strategic orientations on new product commercialization and that environmental dynamism moderates the effect of strategic orientations on new product commercialization. We obtain the valuable insight that a firm's successful commercialization of new products hinges upon the development of critical yet complementary sets of strategic orientations, especially in a dynamic business environment.     

The advantage of being first and competition between firms

It is frequently suggested that the first brand in a product market enjoys a price advantage over its imitators due to imperfect information about product quality. This article considers the effect of this advantage on prices and market shares in a dominant firm price leadership model. An established firm with a price advantage faces free entry by firms producing unbranded products (generics). In equilibrium, the first brand enjoys a market share advantage over entrants in entry and post entry periods. If the initial price disadvantage is large, entry will not occur.     

Market Share Dispersion Among Leading Firms as a Determinant of Advertising Intensity

Previous advertising intensity models have failed toaddress adequately the rivalry effects of leadingfirms trying to protect and enhance the marketshares of their brands. We argue that the relativedegree of market share parity among leading firms inoligopolies is a crucial determinant of marketadvertising levels. This study presents a modelthat more thoroughly characterizes market structureby including the variance in the market shares ofthe top four firms along with the concentrationratio. This model is then tested using a unique1987 data set of 58 well-defined U.S. food andtobacco manufacturing markets that used private datavendors for branded product market shares and mediaadvertising aimed at household consumers. We findthat industry advertising-to-sales ratios arehighest in those industries with the highestprice-cost margins, highest concentration, and thosewith equally-sized leading firms. Oligopolists seemunable to control advertising expenses asconcentration increases and they likely overinvestin advertising rivalry when they have similar marketshares.     

Making Up Is Hard to Do: Knowledge Acquisition Strategies and the Nature of New Product Innovation

Innovation creates significant challenges for firms in high‐technology industries. This article examines how the use of external knowledge acquired from mergers and acquisitions (M&As) and joint ventures (JVs) influence the nature of innovative competence in the global pharmaceutical industry. We create a unique database on never‐before approved products that measure the scientific merit of new, exploratory product innovations, ranging from radical to incremental. We then follow their market success by recording the number of new exploitative product innovations that stem from these product innovations and that are later approved and subsequently marketed. Using a large data set spanning a 15‐year period, we find that firms were able to “make up” for their lack of exploitation or exploration innovative capabilities through the use of M&As and JVs. These external knowledge acquisition strategies were found to overcome internal processes that otherwise could cause firms to overemphasize exploitation over exploration and vice versa. Our findings suggest that acquiring external knowledge via M&As is associated with diminished exploratory product innovation, while assimilating external knowledge sourced from JVs is associated with a reduction in new exploitative product innovation.     

MARKET PERFORMANCE WITH MULTIPRODUCT FIRMS*

We revisit the fundamental issue of market provision of variety associated with Chamberlin, Spence, and Dixit‐Stiglitz when firms sell multiple products. Both products and firms are (horizontally) differentiated. We propose a general nested demand framework where consumers first decide upon a firm then which variant to buy and how much (the nested CES is a special case). We use it to determine the market's biases when firms compete in product ranges and prices. The market system attracts too many firms with too few products per firm: firms restrain product ranges to relax price competition, but this exacerbates over‐entry.     

Critical Development Activities for Really New versus Incremental Products

Does the development of really new products require a different approach from that of incremental new products? Current research and management practice seem to suggest that any successful new product development (NPD) process comprises a set of key activities, regardless of a product's innovativeness. It seems almost foolhardy to suggest that NPD could proceed without proficiency in all of the following tasks: strategic planning, idea development and screening, business and market opportunity analysis, technical development, product testing, and product commercialization. Suggesting that the difference may be in the details, X. Michael Song and Mitzi Montoya-Weiss present the results of a study that examines the development of 163 really new products and 169 incremental new products. The study's objective is to compare the NPD processes and performance outcomes of really new and incremental products. In other words, the study examines the interplay between a product's innovativeness, the NPD process, and the product's performance in the marketplace. For the firms in the study, four sets of NPD activities—strategic planning, market analysis, technical development, and product commercialization—are key determinants of new product success for both really new products and incremental products. However, strategic planning and business and market opportunity analysis activities play contrasting roles for the two types of products. Working to improve proficiency in business and market opportunity analysis may be counterproductive for really new products, but it can increase the profitability of incremental products. Conversely, improving the proficiency of strategic planning activities has a positive effect on the profitability of the really new products, but it has a negative effect for the incremental products. Overall, the really new products in the study surpass the incremental products in meeting profit objectives. Comparing current practice to best practice, the firms in the study have room for improvement. For both really new and incremental products, the firms in the study do not place sufficient emphasis on product commercialization activities. The participants also need to reassess the relative emphasis they place on strategic planning activities. The projects involving really new products do not place sufficient emphasis on strategic planning, while the incremental projects exhibit a relatively high level of proficiency in this area—exactly the opposite of the order that this study recommends.     

The Effect of Advertising on Pharmaceutical Innovation

Although there is much controversy in the economic literature about how advertising affects market competition, little is known about the effect of advertising on product innovation. We examined the relationship between advertising expenditures and the research and development activities of pharmaceutical firms using empirical data from eight therapy areas. This study finds that detailing advertising may have a significant positive effect on the number of new products entering into clinical development. Markets of chronic disease with high levels of detailing advertising were more attractive to pharmaceutical firms. However, the effect of advertising on new product novelty remains inconclusive.     

Product line strategies of new entrants in an established industry: evidence from the U.S. bicycle industry

A firm's product line breadth in a given market has both benefits and costs; these effects can be more clearly seen by examining not only the number of products a firm offers, but also the degree of complexity that the product line represents. The effects of breadth are particularly important for new entrants in a relatively mature industry and I examine the breadth–survival relation on new entrants in the bicycle industry in the period 1993–98. I find that firms offering a greater number of products, those with very simple and very complex product lines, and those whose product lines have a moderate degree of overlap with rivals have the highest survival rates. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Predictive Power of Internet-Based Product Concept Testing Using Visual Depiction and Animation

One critical step in new product development is selecting from among multiple possible product concepts the one that the firm will carry forward into the marketplace. There is a need for low‐cost, parallel testing of the appeal of new product concepts, the results of which closely mirror ultimate market performance. In this article, the authors first describe an Internet‐based product concept testing method they developed that incorporates virtual prototypes of new product concepts, substituting them for physical prototypes. The method can be used with either static representations of the products or with dynamic representations that demonstrate how the product works through a simulated video clip of its operation. The objective of this method is to allow design teams to select the best of several new concepts within a product category with which to proceed, without having to develop physical prototypes. The authors then provide a rigorous test of both virtual prototype methods against tests using both physical prototypes and attribute‐only (i.e., no visuals), full‐profile conjoint analysis. Nine concepts compete against two actual products in the tests. Market shares from the test using the physical prototypes are defined as the “actual” market shares. Predicted market shares for the attribute‐only, full‐profile conjoint analysis and each of the two virtual prototype methods are compared to those obtained for the physical prototypes. Both static and animated virtual prototype tests produced market shares that closely mirrored those obtained with the physical products, outperforming the set of predictions across the full range of products produced in the attribute‐only conjoint analysis. Interestingly, the attribute‐only conjoint analysis identified the top three products, in correct order. It was unable to differentiate performance below these top three products. Furthermore, it predicted market shares for the top three products to be well below those achieved using physical prototypes. As virtual prototypes cost considerably less to build and test than their physical counterparts, design teams using Internet‐based product concept research may be able to afford to explore a much larger number of concepts. Virtual prototypes and the testing methods associated with them may help reduce the uncertainty and cost of new product introductions by allowing more ideas to be concept tested in parallel with target consumers.     

Enhancing New Product Adoption at the Base of the Pyramid: A Contextualized Model

Companies are recognizing and pursuing the opportunity to serve the market known as the base of the pyramid (BOP), i.e., consumers who live in poverty in developing countries. The BOP constitutes the largest remaining global market frontier for businesses. Until recently, it has been ignored because of its seeming unattractiveness and insurmountable challenges compared with middle‐ and high‐income markets. However, BOP consumers desire and are able to pay for quality products tailored to their needs. In response, firms are developing new products specific to the demands and conditions of this low‐income population. To innovate effectively, ensuring new products are well received, firms need to know how to enhance new product adoption among these consumers despite the barriers of poverty. We address this need by developing a model of adoption contextualized to the BOP. Based on theories of innovation and poverty, and drawing on the emergent subsistence market literature, we propose that certain new product characteristics, social context dynamics, and marketing environment approaches moderate or counter some of the limits of poverty, making adoption possible. We then discuss the managerial and theoretical implications of our model for innovation practitioners and researchers.     

Contingent Product Design and Marketing Strategies Influencing New Product Success and Failure in U.S. and Japanese Electronics Firms

The commercial success or failure of a product doesn't rest solely on the whims of the marketplace. The myriad, often interdependent, strategic trade-offs made throughout the product development process go a long way toward determining whether a product succeeds or fails. The key to success often rests in finding the right combination of product design and market choice decisions. Toward that end, William E. Souder and X. Michael Song examine the relationship between product success and several product design and market choice strategies. In particular, they explore the possibility that the correct strategy combination differs depending on a firm's perception of market uncertainty, which they measure in terms of the respondents' perceived familiarity with the market for a product, perceived understanding of customer needs, and perceived capability to translate those needs into product performance specifications. Recognizing that the correct combination of strategic choices may also depend on firm size, industry, and culture, the study focuses on small U.S. suppliers of electronics components. Fortune 500 producers of electronics final products, and Japanese producers of electronics final products. For the small U.S. firms in the study, an emphasis on performance superiority, technical superiority, or radically new products provides a recipe for failure under low market uncertainty. Even under high market uncertainty, these characteristics do not equate to success for the small U.S. firms in this study. The findings suggest that these firms should focus on design compatibility with a purchaser's installed base. The responses from Fortune 500 firms and Japanese companies indicate that under low market uncertainty these larger organizations should consider emphasizing compatibility and avoiding radical designs. For markets that the larger firms perceive to be highly uncertain, the results suggest that these companies should emphasize performance superiority, technical superiority, and radical designs. The findings related to market choice strategies also support the notion that the correct combination of strategic decisions depends on firm size, culture, and the perceived level of market uncertainty. However, the guidelines presented in this study should not be construed as hard-and-fast rules for formulating product strategy. Instead, the results presented here will be helpful for challenging assumptions and guiding actions, as one element in the effort to shape an effective product strategy.     

Encroachment Patterns of the “Best Products” from the Last Decade*

Based on the examination of 239 “best products” (all those on Business Week's annual lists from the past decade), this article tests and validates a conceptual framework identifying six ways in which new products open new markets and/or encroach on original products. Three of these six scenarios involve high‐end encroachment (the new product first opens a new high‐end market, or enters at the high end of an existing market, and then diffuses down‐market), and three scenarios involve low‐end encroachment (encroachment starts at the low end, followed by diffusion up‐market). As illustrated in a 2 × 3 matrix, high‐end encroachment ensues when the new product enhances performance with regard to the market's core attribute (low‐end encroachment ensues when this performance is diminished). The three high‐end sub‐types and three low‐end sub‐types are determined by the strength of performance along an ancillary attribute dimension. If the ancillary attribute performance is week, then the encroachment of the new product on the old market is immediate (corresponding to immediate high‐end encroachment and immediate low‐end encroachment, respectively). If the ancillary performance is moderate, then the new product expands the market at the high or low end (corresponding to new‐attribute high‐end encroachment and fringe‐market low‐end encroachment, respectively). If the ancillary performance is strong, then the new product first opens an entirely new market at the high or low end (corresponding to new‐market high‐end encroachment and detached‐market low‐end encroachment, respectively). The reliability and comprehensiveness of the encroachment framework is tested by asking a panel of eight judges to categorize each of the 239 products. Results show inter‐judge reliability of 98%, with all products falling within one of the six encroachment categories. Each of the encroachment types has unique implications on product positioning and pricing, as further discussed in the paper. Thus the model helps firms identify and analyze the various possible strategies that they might choose from when introducing new products.     

Anti‐Competitive Interconnection: the effects of the elasticity of consumers' expectations and the shape of the network effects function

I find that interconnection might cause the market to be less competitive, and might lead to an increase in the price firms charge for their product. Absent interconnection, firms compete for a consumer for two reasons. The first reason is to obtain revenue from selling the product to a consumer (as in the case without network effects). The second reason is that by expanding the network by one more consumer, the product becomes more attractive to all other consumers. Interconnection eliminates the second reason—when firms interconnect, they are no longer concerned with consumers' following the crowd. I show that consumers and society might be worse off from interconnection. I focus on two factors that make the (post‐interconnection) price increase larger: consumer expectations that are highly sensitive to prices and consumers putting a high value on small increases in network size at the equilibrium market shares. Both of these factors make firms highly competitive, but only if the firms' products' networks are not interconnected.