从微观主体看我国货币政策的信贷渠道

目前,我国货币政策的信贷传导渠道出现了明显的阻塞现象,资金无法顺畅地从金融机构内部进入到实体经济中。本文通过对我国货币政策信贷传导渠道现状的分析,得出微观传导主体——金融机构、企业、消费者的市场化行为不够是引起传导渠道不畅的主要原因。为理顺货币政策信贷传导渠道,充分发挥货币政策作用,政府需从规范传导主体行为上着手。     

小议中国货币政策传导的信贷渠道

货币政策传导渠道包括货币渠道和信贷渠道,由于金融市场不发达、利率管制等原因,中国货币政策主要通过信贷渠道传导。20世纪90年代后期,受金融制度改革和信贷需求萎缩影响,信贷渠道受阻,导致货币政策传导不畅,货币政策效应下降。本文就此讨论了信贷渠道受阻的原因及其产生的影响,并提出疏通信贷传导渠道的对策。     

欧元区超低利率货币政策信贷传导渠道的非线性特征 ——基于马尔科夫区制转换-向量自回归模型的实证研究

本文选取欧元区1999年第一季度至2019年第三季度的宏观经济数据,运用马尔科夫区制转换-向量自回归模型和脉冲响应分析,结果表明欧元区不同利率周期状态下货币政策信贷传导渠道具有非线性特征。模型客观定位区制转换时点为超低利率政策的实施时点,研究结果显示：在不同区制下,欧元区货币政策信贷渠道传导效果存在显著差异,即当利率处于常规期,货币政策信贷渠道传导的产出和价格效应比利率处于超低期时更为显著。这意味着超低利率时期信贷渠道发生阻滞,货币政策信贷传导效率较常规利率时期明显降低。     

基于传导渠道视角的货币政策对房地产业的影响分析

本文通过协整检验、格兰杰因果分析、VAR模型,对我国货币政策对房地产行业的影响及其传导问题进行了实证研究,并得到以下结论:扩张的货币政策会使房地产投资和价格在短期内上升,并促使房地产投资和价格长期在比原来更高的水平上波动;在房地产行业研究中,货币政策传导的信贷渠道、货币渠道都显著存在,其中货币渠道相对于信贷渠道更为重要。     

货币渠道与信贷渠道的比较研究——基于1994年至2011年季度数据

货币政策传导机制素有货币渠道和信贷渠道之分.我国GDP受到货币供应量和贷款余额的共同影响,在两个标准差的货币政策变量冲击下,贷款余额对我国GDP的影响大于货币供应量,而随着时间的推移,货币渠道的影响在逐渐加大,信贷渠道的影响则相对减弱.     

我国货币政策传导机制的实证分析

本文运用我国2001-2006年的月度数据,借助Granger因果关系检验及Johansen协整检验方法,对我国货币政策传导机制进行研究.结果表明,信贷和利率渠道并不是我国货币政策的主要传递渠道,货币政策主要是通过资产价格渠道传导的.这与我国实行的利率管制、目前银行信贷自身的局限、以及当前经济形势都有关系.     

利率管制与利率传到机制有效性分析

货币政策是通过利率渠道、资产价格渠道、汇率渠道和信贷渠道的传导机制来实现预期的货币政策目标,从而达到宏观调控的目的。其中利率渠道是最主要,也是最常用的渠道。计划经济体制下,我国利率管理属于政府严格管制类型,改革开放后管制型利率管理体制没有本质变化。然而,利率管制严重影响了货币政策利率传导机制的有效性,应当适当的放松利率管制。     

改善金融调控 促进经济发展

一、改进金融调控机制 1．完善货币信贷政策传导渠道。就我国目前货币政策传导渠道的现实来看，信贷渠道发挥着关键性作用，从目前的传导情况看，还有必要继续完善信贷传导渠道。一是必须在市场机制的基础上强化信贷传导渠道的作用。作为商业银行有自主的选择信贷客户的权力、具有自主的基于风险收益的定价权；作为企业可以便利地、无歧视地获得商业银行的贷款。二是有必要优化信贷双方的行为。商业银行要加快改革，降低不良资产比例、提高资产质量，完善内部的法人治理结构，强化激励与约束机制，增强赢利能力的持续性。     

金融市场对我国货币政策传导机制有效性的影响

一、我国货币政策传导机制的现状现阶段我国货币政策主要是以稳定物价和促进经济增长为目标，通过信贷配给和利率机制进行传导，由于我国仍然处于经济转轨时期，货币政策传导渠道的不畅，造成了我国货币政策没有充分发挥其应有的效果。如1996年5月1号开始到2002年2月21号，我国相继8次降低银行存款利息，虽刺激了国内需求，但是仍需要我国进一步去完善它。     

我国货币政策传导机制的实证研究

近年来，我国经济金融运行中出现了货币流通速度减慢、商业银行惜贷、中小企业融资难等问题。因此，货币政策传导机制问题越来越受到关注。文章运用单位根检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、回归分析等时间序列方法，对我国从1998年1月至2006年12月期间的货币政策传导机制进行实证分析，得出目前在我国，货币政策是通过信贷渠道而不是货币渠道对实体经济产生影响的结论。     

Trade Credit and Monetary Policy Transmission

Abstract.  Recently, an increasing number of papers have investigated the role of trade credit as an external source of finance when analyzing the monetary transmission mechanism. These works support the balance sheet-channel view and at the same time explain the difficulties encountered when looking for evidence in favor of the bank-lending channel. This paper presents a survey of the emerging literature on the role of trade credit in the transmission of monetary policy, trying to link it with the well-established credit-channel literature.     

MONETARY TRANSMISSION MECHANISM IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPE: SURVEYING THE SURVEYABLE

Abstract.  This paper surveys recent advances in empirical studies of the monetary transmission mechanism, with special attention to Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). Our results indicate that the strength of the exchange rate pass-through substantially declined over time mainly due to a fall in inflation rates and to some extent due to the so-called composition effect. The asset price channel is weak and is likely to remain weak because of shallow stock and private bond markets and because of low stock and bond holdings of domestic households. House prices may become an exception with booming mortgage lending and with high owner occupancy ratios. While the credit channel could be a powerful channel of monetary transmission – as new funds raised on capital markets are close to zero in CEE – it is actually not, as both commercial banks and non-financial corporations can escape domestic monetary conditions by borrowing from their foreign mother companies. The moderately good news, however, is that those banks and firms are influenced by monetary policy in the euro area because their parent institutions are themselves subjected to the credit channel in the euro area.     

The bank lending channel of monetary transmission in Brazil: A VECM approach

This paper tests for the existence of a lending channel in the transmission of monetary policy in Brazil using aggregate monthly data for the period 1995:12 through 2008:6. The test is carried out in a VECM setting that allows for multiple cointegrating relationships among the variable of interest. We find evidence of two cointegrating vectors, which we identify as loan demand and supply functions by testing for a number of exclusion and exogeneity restrictions on the cointegrating relationships. Loan supply is found to be negatively related to the interbank deposit certificate rate, suggesting the existence of a lending channel for monetary transmission. The VECM's short-term dynamics show that loan demand is equilibrium-correcting. But short-term disequilibria in the supply of loans are corrected through changes in the interbank deposit certificate rate, suggesting that monetary policy plays a role in restoring equilibrium in the credit market by affecting the borrowing rate faced by banks to raise non-deposit funds.     

How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China

Transforming from quantitative-based instruments to price-based instruments is the primary goal of the monetary policy transformation in emerging economies. In essence, this process is gradually replacing the interest rate channel with the credit channel from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which is mainly achieved by promoting financial development to reduce the financial friction. However, there are opposite effects of financial development on the bank lending channel; thus, the topic is controversial. Using banks’ data from 2010 to 2018, this paper studies whether and how the money market development weakens the effect of the bank lending channel in China. The result shows that the mechanism through which the money market development influences the bank lending channel is realized by affecting the substitution elasticity of the asset and liability structure of banks’ balance sheets. Different from the theoretical expectation, the effect of the money market development on the bank lending channel is nonsignificant in China but appears to be weakened when the interest rate market-oriented reform is considered. However, further research based on structural analysis demonstrates that the money market development exerts heterogeneous effects on the bank lending channel under different types of sub-markets and different characteristics of the banks considered.     

Does monetary policy influence banks’ risk weights under the internal ratings-based approach?

This paper studies the extent to which monetary policy may affect banks’ perception of credit risk and the way banks measure risk under the internal ratings-based approach. Specifically, we empirically analyze the effect of different monetary policy variables on banks’ risk weights for credit risk. We present robust evidence of a strong, statistically significant relationship between monetary policy easing and lower implicit risk weights of banks using the internal ratings-based approach. Further, we show that the recent prolonged period of accommodative monetary policy has been instrumental in establishing this relationship. The presented findings have important implications for the prudential authority, which should be aware of the possible side effects of monetary policy on how banks measure risk.     

我国货币政策利率传导渠道的体制转换特征——利率市场化改革进程中的考察

本文考察了我国利率市场化改革进程中货币政策利率传导渠道效应的体制转换特征。实证结果表明:1978年第一季度至2009年第二季度期间我国货币政策传导的管制利率渠道发生了两次体制转换,转换之后贷款基准利率调整对产出和物价水平的效应都降低了。1996年1月至2009年7月期间我国货币政策传导市场利率渠道发生了一次体制转换,转换之后同业拆借利率变动平抑产出和物价波动的效果都更强劲、更持续。这意味着我国的利率市场化改革取得了阶段性成果,也意味着我国利率调控由直接方式逐渐转向主要依靠间接方式不仅是必要的,也是可行的。     

Conventional Monetary Policy Transmission During Financial Crises: An Empirical Analysis

This paper studies the effects of a conventional monetary policy shock in the USA during times of high financial stress. The analysis is carried out by introducing a smooth transition factor model where the transition between states (‘normal’ and high financial stress) depends on a financial conditions index. Employing a quarterly dataset over the period 1970:Q1 to 2008:Q4 containing 108 US macroeconomic and financial time series, I find that a monetary policy shock during periods of high financial stress has stronger and more persistent effects on macroeconomic variables such as output, consumption and investment than it has during ‘normal’ times. Differences in effects among the regimes seem to originate from nonlinearities in both components of the credit channel, i.e. the balance sheet channel and the bank‐lending channel. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of monetary policy shocks on the racial unemployment rates in the US

This study analyzes the effect of monetary policy shocks on the unemployment rate of different racial groups in the US, using data from 1969Q2 to 2015Q4. Employing a narrative approach to identify monetary policy shocks and local projections, we find that although an expansionary monetary shock affects White workers positively and significantly, the effect on Black workers is larger, and for Hispanic workers it is not statistically different from zero. These results are robust when considering unconventional monetary policy measures in the specification, and when exploring the impact of monetary policy on different genders and age groups. We also highlight how recession affects the transmission channel of monetary policy to the labor market for White and Hispanic workers. Finally, further extensions suggest that the Fed’s monetary policy is effective in reducing the racial unemployment gap, particularly between Whites and Blacks, and during economic booms.     

The Credit View, Old and New

Recent writings in the so-called 'credit view' focus on binding finance constraints of macroeconomic activity which arise from the incomplete substitutability of bank credit and from changes in borrowers' net worth. They criticize the standard approaches in the 'money view' for not taking full account of the observable effects of monetary restrictions on real activity. In this paper, the 'new credit view' is contrasted with older macroeconomic theories that placed special emphasis on the banks' systemic potential to expand credit beyond planned saving. The comparative discussion of the underlying arguments about bank behaviour, about the non-neutrality of credit money, and about the transmission of monetary policy impulses reveals some shortcomings in the new view. History helps, moreover, to set the conventional confrontations of the 'credit view' and the 'money view' in perspective. JEL-classification: B22, E32, E44, E51, E52