户籍政策与人口城市化

分析了户籍政策的形成背景及特殊意义,指出尽管户籍政策对城市化发展存在一定的阻碍作用,但因其涉及方方面面的问题,不可能在短期内被取消.据此提出了现阶段我国城市化发展的新思路:不再过分强调人口向城市聚集,代之先进要素向城市聚集;在农村和欠发达地区则以职业转换取代空间转换,或采取人口迁移的反梯度政策,走先发展经济,后进行人口空间聚集的农村城市化之路.     

Corruption,development and demography

This paper presents an analysis of the joint, endogenous determination of bureaucratic corruption, economic development and demographic transition. The analysis is based on an overlapping generations model in which reproductive agents mature safely through two periods of life and face a probability of surviving for a third period. This survival probability depends on the provision of public goods and services which may be compromised by corrupt activities on the part of public officials. The dynamic general equilibrium of the economy is characterised by multiple development regimes, transition between which may or may not be feasible. In accordance with empirical evidence, the model predicts that low (high) levels of development are associated with high (low) levels of corruption and low (high) rates of life expectancy. The authors are grateful for the comments of two anonymous referees on an earlier version of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Can we model the educational process?

Operational analysis has not yet made a contribution to the improvement of the educational process. There are several reasons for this. First, relative to the magnitude of the job of teaching our youth, financial support for educational research and analysis has been much smaller than for other problem areas, e.g., health.

The second difficulty is in the relationship between operational analysis and theory. The more complete the theory, the better the system designs resulting from analysis. For education there is no theory. Worse, there are few efforts to develop such theory. It must be recognized, however, that the phenomenon called learning is very complex.

The lack of theory means that the system design proceeds with more uncertainty. Large “safety factors” must be built in. This means that educational systems have to be expensive.

Large, continuing financial support is required; first, to build up present school systems, so that they perform well under existing, changing circumstances; and, second, to support research that will provide theories and models which in turn will lead to more effective learning systems.     

欠发达地区物流与区域经济发展协同度评价模型

为测度区域物流与区域经济的协同发展水平,在分析区域物流与区域经济发展协同效应的基础上,从系统分析的角度选取反映物流基础设施、物流发展规模、物流发展潜力的12个区域物流子系统的序参量和反映经济结构、经济总量和经济效益的11个区域经济子系统的序参量,应用系统协同度测度序参量方法,构建区域物流与区域经济发展的协同度评价模型,并将模型应用于黑龙江区域物流与区域经济协同发展水平测度。结果表明,黑龙江区域物流与区域经济协同度呈增减交替的M型发展趋势,总体处于低水平协同状态。     

中国现代金融体系的结构、影响及前景

在经济快速增长的背景下,中国已逐步形成一个以中央银行为核心、商业银行为主体,各种银行和非银行金融机构分工协作的现代国家金融体系。运用计量分析方法和典型相关分析,研究中国现代金融体系的社会融资结构、证券市场结构以及影子银行结构,测度国家现代金融体系对实体经济各行业的影响程度。研究表明:金融机构贷款与债券市场对相关行业的促进具有一定协同作用,股票市场对第一、二产业的发展影响较小,金融业对第三产业的促进作用最大。根据目前金融体系的结构、影响,可以预见未来中国现代金融体系的发展前景将主要体现在市场化、网络化以及国际化三个方面。     

会计制度变迁的思考

20世纪90年代开始,西方的新制度经济学逐渐传入我国。也正值我国已经开始从计划经济向市场经济转变的经济体制改革之际,与之相适应,我国会计制度也进行了一系列重大改革。本文以新制度经济学关于制度变迁的理论为基础重新认识中国会计制度变迁的历程,指出中国会计制度供给的主体是政府,会计制度变迁具有强制性、渐进性、被动地适应性和强烈的路径依赖性等特征,探索研究会计制度未来的发展方向。     

基于中国传统的家族企业传承问题探讨

改革开放以来,民营企业已经成为我国经济生活中重要的组成部分。而家族企业作为中国社会民营企业重要的经济组织形式,在本世纪都将进入权杖交接的重要阶段,如何从新中国"第一代"创业者手中将企业传递到"第二代"继任者手中,使家族企业基业长青,顺利完成领导人的更替,实现代际传承将越来越成为管理学界理论及实证研究的重要课题。本文突破以往对传承过程的研究,从中国传统文化的视角探讨家族企业传承问题,以期摸索出一条适合我国家族企业领导权成功交替的新路。     

Commitment: A mathematical model

The concept of commitment has received ever-increasing attention from social scientists during the past fifteen years. Its usage occurs in several seemingly disjoint problem areas, but it is typically introduced when available explanations fail to describe the tendency for individuals to persist on a given course of action, once started, without obvious motive for doing so. Until recently its theoretical status has been as a primitive term, often appearing in ad hoc explanations, and accepted without question. In sociology, the first major query into the nature of commitment was Howard Becker's “Notes on the Concept of Commitment” (1960), a particularly influential article in stimulating research on commitment. However, most subsequent empirical work has dealt with the correlates and effects of commitment rather than with its genesis. Regrettably, what was once a problem in ad hoc theorizing has come to be matched by ad hoc operationalization of the concept. The present paper is a response to a perceived need for a formal model of commitment whose features might make the concept amenable to uniform theoretical and empirical usage. The purpose of this paper is to present a mathematical model of a general commitment mechanism which complements some extant ideas about the formal role of commitment in explaining certain types of behavior. The first part of the paper concentrates on extracting ideas from sociological and social psychological literature which provide the foundation for the intuitions to be formalized later. The second part presents a mathematical model of commitment. The third part discusses commitment in the context of a turnover model, and in concluding suggests some possible revisions and extensions of the model.     

Demographic transition,education and economic growth in Tunisia

This paper provides empirical evidence supporting the interaction between fertility, education and economic growth through the underlying mechanism behind that correlation in accordance with Becker's theory. In consistency with the theory, the key explanatory variables in Tunisia's fertility model are real GDP per capita, infant mortality, contraceptive use ratio, and education. As opposed to most empirical works, the present study takes into consideration three educational levels, i.e., primary, secondary and higher. Also unlike most empirical research, this study attempts to analyse the impact of fertility transition on education and economic growth. To deal with too little or incomplete data, time series data for Tunisia are computed over 45 years. A multivariate cointegration analysis is carried out and shows that a long-term triangular relationship exists. A short dynamic run analysis based on the vector correction error model displays results in coherence with and close to those of the long term. Among our key results, education is found to trigger fertility transition both in the short and long run. In addition, education has relatively fostered economic growth but hardly boosted it through its dynamic interaction with fertility. Furthermore, the variance decomposition and the impulse function show that the fertility transition has produced a feedback effect on both education and economic growth.     

Development similarities in urban clusters: Evidence from a spatial analysis of Israel''s urban system

The effect of geographic proximity on the similarity of development rates exhibited by urban localities in Israel is investigated. The analysis is carried out in three stages. During the first stage, Moran's I measure of spatial autocorrelation is used, indicating that the spatial autocorrelation of development rates drops as inter-town distances increase. In the second stage, the impact of explanatory variables (population size, remoteness, etc.) is tested using both Ordinary Least Squares (OLSs) and Spatial Lag Models (SLMs). The analysis indicates that inter-town proximity is a significant factor that helps to improve regression fits. Lastly, during the third step of the analysis, the spatial association of development rates is studied separately for centrally located and peripheral towns. The analysis points out that proximity effects appear to be stronger in the periphery.     

福建省经济运行的实证分析

任何一个国家或地区的经济发展都是由很多因素决定的,从宏观经济理论可知,拉动地区经济增长的因素主要有消费,投资和出口。本文从这三个因素入手,通过Granger-causality因果关系检验的方法,以福建省的数据为例,对区域经济的运行情况进行实证分析,得出出口是拉动福建经济的主要因素的结论。并对今后福建省的经济发展提出了一些简单的政策和建议。     

The dynamod model of student and teacher population growth

DYNAMOD II is a computerized Markov-type model which calculates data for 140 population groups over selected intervals of time. These population groups are crossclassified as to sex, race (2 categories), age (6 categories), educational status (3 levels of students and teachers respectively, as well as elementary and secondary school dropouts), and an “other” category. The model employs over 832 transition probabilities to cycle the population groups. Independent birth projections are added to the appropriate sex-race categories after each interaction.

The model is programmed for the RCA 3301 and GE time-sharing computer systems. On the GE system, a data file arrangement permits on-line access to any of the inputs or probabilities. In addition, user options regarding the desired amount of detailed output are available.

DYNAMOD II can provide the educational community with estimates of the impact on the educational population of proposed policy changes or of sudden shifts in the structure of the educational system. For example, if policymakers wish to know what effect will be produced by a policy designed to decrease the elementary-school teacher turnover by one percent, DYNAMOD II can supply not only information on the new levels of teacher projections, but also can provide estimates of the rate at which these adjustments will take place. Not only are these estimates possible for the various tiers of student and teacher structures in the model, but changes outside the educational system, such as in birth and death rates can be handled as well. It follows that the impact of policy changes on policy tools, such as the student-teacher ratio, can also be estimated with the use of DYNAMOD II.     

The frequency of visiting a doctor: Is the decision to go independent of the frequency?

In his analysis of the effects of the reform of the German healthcare system, Winkelmann (Journal of Applied Econometrics 2004; 19 : 455–472) investigates the number of doctor visits. He makes a distinction between the decision to go to a physician and the number of times the physician is visited in the observed time period. Winkelmann finds that there is no correlation between both decisions. This result appears to be far from straightforward since the primary driving force in both decisions will be the health of the patient. From this perspective a significant correlation is expected. In this paper, I first replicate part of Winkelmann's research. I then set out to analyse whether the zero correlation is actually true or comes from the way the relation between both decisions is modelled. My empirical analysis confirms the latter, but nevertheless also corroborates Winkelmann's main conclusions on the relevance of the explanatory variables used in his investigation. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

企业激励因素分析

企业激励是一个由多种相互作用的因素组成的复杂系统,企业要取得良好的激励效果,需要综合考虑多方面因素。本文构建了包括实施激励的主体、接受激励的客体、激励手段组合、激励力量、激励频度、社会比较、控制和反馈、激励强度及辅助系统等因素在内的激励模型。作者编制和发放了问卷,用主成分法对问卷结果进行因素分析,验证了以上激励模型的有效性;在因素分析的基础又进行回归分析,回归分析结果表明各因素对激励强度的贡献程度由大到小分别为激励手段组合、激励力量、社会比较、辅助子系统和激励频度。总之,为了获得较好的激励效果,不同企业应采取不同的激励方式,同一企业针对不同的员工或同一员工的不同职业发展阶段也应采取不同的激励策略。     

FISCAL DECENTRALIZATION AND INTERGOVERNMENTAL RELATIONS: AN ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL VERSUS STATE EDUCATION FINANCE IN MEXICO

While decentralization is on the forefront of the reform agenda of many developing countries, few studies have performed empirical analysis to provide a holistic picture of the important fiscal, efficiency, and equity issues. Specifically, decentralization nearly always involves fiscal and administrative decisions by both national and sub-national governments, as well as intricate intergovernmental relations. Here, two empirical models are presented for the Mexican primary and secondary education sector. The first analyzes the efficiency-equity trade-off implicit the Mexican Federal Government's educational fiscal transfers to states. Unlike most similar analyses, this model analyzes the distribution of outcomes not simply expenditures. The second model analyzes the relative productivity of separate expenditures by the Federal and state governments before Mexico's recent educational decentralization legislation. The findings show that before the decentralization, the Federal Government exhibited some concern for equity, but that in doing so also treated states unequally according to criteria that have little to do with either efficiency or equity. In addition, the results show that the Federal Government may indeed have been the more efficient provider of primary and secondary education, raising concern for the fiscal and administrative relationship set up by the decentralization legislation: the Federal Government will continue to pay, while the states have gained relative autonomy over expenditures.     

开发区转型的演变过程及发展方向研究

本文在对开发区转型的演变过程进行回顾的基础上,归纳出开发区在转型不同阶段在动力机制、支撑要素、产业调整、招商内容、发展方式方面的变化,并以启动转型升级较早取得效果较好的苏州工业园区为例,对这些变化加以验证,最后指出在新背景下开发区转型应该是一次经济、社会、环境全方位的转变,涉及现代产业体系构建、经济增长方式转变、城乡统...