International and Institutional R&D Spillovers: Attribution of Benefits among Sources for Brazil's New Crop Varieties

Reported rates of return to agricultural R&D are generally high, but they are likely to be biased, particularly because of attribution problems—mismatching research benefits with costs. The importance of attribution biases is illustrated here with new evidence for Brazil. During 1981–2003, varietal improvements in upland rice, edible beans, and soybeans yielded benefits of $14.8 billion in present value (1999 prices) terms. Attributing all of the benefits to Embrapa, a public research corporation accounting for more than half of Brazil's agricultural R&D spending, the benefit-cost ratio would be 78:1. Under alternative attribution rules, the ratio drops to 16:1.     

An integrated approach for ex-ante evaluation of public policies for sustainable agriculture at landscape level

An integrated methodological framework for ex-ante evaluation and planning of public policies for sustainable agriculture at agro-landscape level is proposed. The components of the framework are to: (1) determine the private, i.e. farmers’, and public benefits associated to agro-landscapes, consisting of an agricultural land-use system, according to its performance for several market and non-market functions. Market forces determine the market benefits and preferences of society the non-market benefits; (2) explore and select potential sustainable agro-landscapes based on the private and public benefits associated with possible land-use alternatives; (3) define efficient public policy mechanisms for improving social net benefit of agro-landscapes.The framework is illustrated with a case study in a small dairy farming dominated agro-landscape in The Netherlands, with gross margin, landscape quality, nature value and environmental health as the analysed ecosystem functions. Alternative landscapes consisting of hedgerow configurations and grassland management practices were explored, yielding a set of alternatives representing the solution space in terms of change in private and public benefits. Policy mechanisms were defined to move from the current to a desired landscape based on changes in social net benefits. Moreover, the necessity of a modification in the current agri-environmental support was analysed for each landscape. The analysis considered all farmers in the agro-landscape jointly. The results for the case study showed potential prototypes of landscapes and their performance compared to the current landscape. Extension was the most efficient policy mechanism to promote the change to the socially optimum landscape alternative.     

Measuring the social costs of suboptimal combinations of policy instruments: A general framework and an example

Since most agricultural programs employ two or more policy instruments simultaneously, it is notable thai little research has attempted to find optimal instrument combinations and no research exists which evaluates the social costs (unrealized benefits) of combining instruments suboptimally. In our paper we report a simple and feasible method to find optimal policy instrument combinations, and we provide the first general, formal approach to measuring the social costs of suboptimal policy instrument combinations. Our approach is illustrated in an analysis for live major U.S. crops (corn, feed grains, wheat, rice, cotton). The simple model we employ for the illustration suggests that except lor the feed grains program, the observed programs combined policy instruments quite suboptimally. We conclude that agricultural economics research now can and should begin placing increased emphasis on studying optimal policy instrument combinations.     

The Value of the Canadian Census of Agriculture

Tough economic times are forcing governments to review the costs and benefits of the goods and services they offer to the public. However, dollars and cents are more easily attached to the costs of many of these programs than the benefits. The 1981 Canadian Census of Agriculture is no exception — it cost $7.5 million. Yet. to this point, no quantitative value has been attributed to its benefits. This paper shows that the value of only one of the benefits covers the entire cost of conducting the Census of Agriculture. This should serve as an indicator of the value of agricultural statistics.     

Economic Returns to Yield-increasing Research on Wheat in Western Canada

A multi-sector mathematical programming model of Canadian agriculture (CRAM) is employed to determine the rate of return to yield-increasing research on wheat conducted during 1962–91. The estimated internal rate of return to yield-increasing research ranged between 27% and 31% for the low wheat price scenarios. It was higher at 34–39% for the high wheat price scenarios. Producers captured 80–90% of the benefits. The results support the magnitude of estimated economic benefits reported in previous studies.     

Measuring Benefits to Operation and Maintenance Expenditure in the Canal Irrigation System of Pakistan: A Simulation Analysis

Estimates regarding benefits to O&M investments help rationalize financial allocation decisions. A distributed lag model is used to estimate the contribution to agricultural productivity of funds utilized for O&M of the canal system in Pakistani Punjab. Estimated parameters are used to simulate the effects of alternative O&M investment scenarios on agricultural output, farm prices and income. Marginal benefits to past and prospective O&M investments in the canal irrigation system were found to be fairly high, suggesting the need to allocate more funds for O&M of the canal system. Results indicate that O&M investments yield substantial gains to both producers and consumers, implying that funds required for O&M activities could be generated by taxing both these segments of society.     

Structure of Public Support for National Agricultural Research Systems: A Political Economy Perspective

This paper initiates development of a set of stylized facts concerning the structure of public support for national agricultural research systems (NARS) within a neoclassical political economy framework. The aim is to place public funding of NARS in the broader context of the overall level of direct government assistance to agriculture. Using a newly constructed data set on NARS expenditures over the 1970-85 period, we observe a growing disparity in agricultural research intensity ratios, which measure the level of public support for NARS in relation to agricultural gross domestic production (Aggdp ) between low and high-income countries. This growing disparity appears to be driven by much larger increases in support for agricultural research by high-income countries, coupled with a significantly slower growth in the size of their agricultural sector, despite the propensity of low and middle-income countries to increase real support to agricultural research. As per-capita incomes rise the public agricultural expenditure ratio, which measures public expenditures on agriculture relative to the size of the agricultural sector, Aggdp , increases substantially. Public expenditures on agriculture were indexed on agricultural and non-agricultural populations to give a rough indication of the increasing incentives for rural 'distributional coalitions' to seek a redistribution of public expenditures in their favor. A relative research expenditure (rre ) ratio is developed, which measures the proportion of total public expenditure on agriculture spent on agricultural research. It provides an indication of the relative importance given to research on agriculture within the constraints imposed by overall public spending on agriculture. In contrast to the agricultural research intensity ratios, the rre ratios suggest that agricultural research appears to command as large a share of the public purse devoted to agriculture in low and middle-income countries as it does in high-income countries. Expectations derived from the neoclassical political economy literature that research may have fared relatively better in high compared with low-income countries were not supported by the data.     

Estimating overall returns to international agricultural research in Africa through benefit-cost analysis: a "best-evidence" approach

This study offers a "best evidence" approach to summarizing recent benefit-cost analyses of international agricultural research in Africa. First, from an extensive literature review and the resulting global inventory of impact studies, 23 studies are identified that calculate aggregate rates of return for Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and partner investments in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). These studies are then appraised against a review framework consisting of principles, criteria, and indicators for study rigor. Subsequently, the economic benefits reported by studies grouped on the basis of its analytical rigor are aggregated and set against total investment by the CGIAR and national agricultural research systems to determine if the total investment to date can be justified by documented benefits under a range of assumptions. As a result, the study finds that aggregate investment is justified under a fairly wide range of suppositions. Under all scenarios, the vast majority of documented benefits stem from a relatively limited array of activities with a majority of benefits stemming from biological control (80%). Close to 20% of total benefits result from crop genetic improvement, and less than 1% result from all other activities. The implications of these results for research investment strategies in SSA and impact assessment are discussed.     

European Agricultural Science Funding: Examining Trends and Prospects

Proper evaluation of the impact of agricultural research requires data on how much has been spent to achieve its desired effects on productivity, efficiency and environmental quality. However, official statistics on aggregate volumes of research expenditure, at both European and national levels, are intermittently available and most data collected for private research are not fully compatible with data for public research. This study in 20 European countries in 2014 defines the different concepts at international level, and assesses coverage across countries, using secondary data and key informant interviews. Coverage is unequal by country and type of measure, the lowest coverage being for agriculture as a socioeconomic objective. We depict recent trends in public agricultural research, which differ by country. We then formulate three policy options and recommendations for their implementation to improve the monitoring of agricultural research investment in Europe: 1) make compulsory in the EU statistical system the collection of statistics on agricultural research expenditure using the same metrics for all sectors of performance; 2) develop a specific survey in the Commission to obtain data directly from research organisations; 3) prepare annual reviews of agricultural research expenditures at Member State level, including both quantitative and qualitative information on agricultural research activities.     

Efficiency of research investments in the presence of international spillovers: wheat research in developing countries⋆

Expenditures on agricultural research in the public sector, including the International Agricultural Research Centers (IARCs) have stagnated and in some cases, declined sharply in recent years. This has focused attention on issues of efficiency of agricultural research systems, especially the number, size, scope, type, and locations of their programs. This paper examines the issue of research efficiency through a case study of wheat improvement research in developing countries. The basic premise of this study is that the optimal level of research investment should be determined in a global model that incorporates direct research spill‐ins. An analytical framework is developed to determine the threshold levels of crop production in a country (or a region within a country) needed to justify crop improvement research programs of different sizes in the presence of spill‐ins from abroad. Spill‐in coefficients are estimated from yield performance of varieties of different origins grown across a range of environments. The model is then applied to analyze the efficiency of current investments in 69 wheat improvement research programs in 35 developing countries. A major conclusion of the paper is that given the magnitude of potential spill‐ins from the international research system, many wheat research programs could significantly increase the efficiency of resource use by reducing the size of their wheat research programs and focusing on the screening of varieties developed elsewhere. ©2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.     

Does agricultural extension pay?

Compared to studies evaluating the benefits from agricultural research, there are relatively few empirical studies of the net economic benefits of agricultural extension, and even fewer that consider both public and private sector extension effort. In this study we examine regional differences in the adoption of lupins in Western Australia (WA) in order to estimate the net economic benefits of public and private sector extension. Impacts of extension and other variables on adoption were analysed for 40 shires using multivariate regression analysis. The results suggest that both public and private extension activities influenced farmer uptake of lupins, particularly by bringing forward the start time of the diffusion curve. Economic benefits of extension, based on the statistical analysis, were combined with costs of extension estimated from public sector records and surveys of private sector extension agents and used to estimate the net present value of extension investments by the public and private sectors in the study area.     

Assessing the returns to R&D on perennial crops: the costs and benefits of Pierce's disease research in the California winegrape industry

Several complicating issues arise in evaluating the returns to research into varietal improvements for perennial crops compared with annual crops. We elucidate and address these issues in the context of a case study of research aiming to develop varieties that are resistant to Pierce's disease (PD) of grapevines. PD imposes costs of over $100 million per year on the California grape industry, even with public PD control programs in place. Research projects to develop PD resistant varieties of grapevines are at various stages of completion. We describe the economic problems posed by PD, document the research programs undertaken to address the disease and present an economic assessment of the returns to the investment, which are conditional on other policies. Using a simulation model of the market for California winegrapes, we estimate the benefits from research, development and adoption of PD‐resistant vines as ranging from $4 million to $129 million annually over a 50‐year horizon, depending on the length of the R&D lag and the rate of adoption. In addition to these specific quantitative results the paper offers insight into the broader question of economic evaluation of damage‐mitigation technology for perennial crops.     

Issues in benefit-cost analysis of agricultural research projects

Use of benefit-cost analysis for economic comparison of agricultural research projects remains confounded, inter alia , by lack of rigour in specifying the without-project scenario and how benefits from an innovation endure after its adoption declines. Failure to account for the without-project scenario favours projects to the extent that more benefits are foregone than costs avoided. Moreover, it is unreasonable to assume generally that aggregate benefits from an innovation continue at the peak level until the end of a 30–40 year planning horizon. A general BCA model for agricultural research projects is presented to enable flexible handling of these issues.     

Policy drivers of farm succession and inheritance

Farm succession and inheritance is increasingly considered a complex phenomenon which not only affects core dimensions of farm family life but also the agricultural sector more widely. Intergenerational farm transfer in particular is increasingly viewed as fundamental to the sustainability and development of global agriculture. In the majority of EU countries, the average age of farmers is increasing, while the number of farmers under 40 years of age is decreasing. There is growing concern that this demographic trend may have negative impacts on the agricultural industry because it is younger and not older farmers who are associated with more efficient and effective production practices. The question of what motivates decisions to transfer farms is a complex one, and research to date has not apparently enlightened agricultural policy to the extent that current trends towards an ageing farm population are being managed. This research aims to investigate economic and financial aspects of the policy drivers of farm succession and inheritance in Ireland to understand what it is about the policy environment that is failing to stimulate higher levels of farm transfer. It draws on the Teagasc National Farm Survey data which provides Irish data to the Farm Accountancy Data Network in the European Commission. A hypothetical microsimulation model is used to investigate economic factors of farm transfers, with scenarios created to test these factors and their impacts on the transfer process. The Net Present Value (NPV) of income streams for farmers and their successors are calculated to assess which scenarios have the highest/lowest financial effects. The findings illustrate a range of possible scenarios for farm succession/inheritance, with some results indicating that under current policy retaining a farm until death may be more economically beneficial to a farmer than transferring land before death.     

The research cost of adapting agriculture to climate change: A global analysis to 2050

Investments in agricultural research and development (R&D) made over the next few decades will likely prove critical in offsetting adverse climate change impacts on the global food system. In this study, we offer cost estimates of public R&D-led adaptation to climate change grounded in an explicit framework relating the flow of annual R&D expenditures to building knowledge capital and thereby raising productivity in agriculture. Our research uses a comprehensive collection of historical public agricultural R&D expenditure and a literature review of elasticity estimates linking knowledge stocks to agricultural productivity growth for key world regions. Given climate-driven crop yield projections generated from extreme combinations of crop and global circulation models, we find that offsetting crop yield losses projected by climate and crop models over 2006–2050 would require increased R&D adaptation investments of between $187 billion and $1,384 billion (in 2005 $PPP) if we invest between 2020 and 2040. This is 16–118% higher than global R&D investment if present spending trends continue. Although these costs are significant, worldwide R&D-led climate adaptation could offer favorable economic returns. Moreover, R&D-led adaptation could deliver gains in food security and environmental sustainability by mitigating food price increases and slowing cropland expansion.     

Analysing the provision of agricultural public goods: The case of irrigated olive groves in Southern Spain

Analysis of the joint production of private and public goods (PGs) by farming activities is a fertile research field. These joint production processes are typically characterised by a high level of complexity derived from the intense relationship between the production of both kinds of outputs. An integrated approach is strongly recommended for the study of the provision of agricultural PGs and the design of public intervention in this sector. Here, we propose a theoretical framework to apply an integrated approach using the analytic network process (ANP) to analyse the production of PGs by agricultural systems to support public decision-making concerning the design and implementation of agricultural policies. We introduce a novel approach in applying ANP along both directions of the influences among elements, allowing us to identify the most influenced PGs and the farmers’ most influential decisions. This methodological approach is empirically applied to a particular farming system: the irrigated olive groves (IOG) of Southern Spain. Results show that the PGs most influenced by olive growers’ decisions are soil fertility, the visual quality of agricultural landscapes and farmland biodiversity. In addition, the most influential factors affecting the provision of PGs are the structural ones, namely farm size and tree density, and, to a lesser extent, management factors dealing with fertilisation, soil and irrigation management. These results are useful for supporting agricultural policy decision-making to enhance adequate management of this farming system regarding PGs production.     

The rise and fall of public sector plant breeding in the United Kingdom: a causal chain model of basic and applied research and diffusion

This paper examines the barley and wheat breeding programmes of the Plant Breeding Institute (PBI), which was the most successful public plant breeding institute in the UK, until privatization in 1987. The PBI's shares in barley and wheat seed sales are explained, showing that the success with barley was largely a matter of serendipity, whereas the wheat programme followed a more normal pattern. For wheat, the causal chain, or recursive, model decomposes the well-documented link between research expenditures and increases in agricultural productivity into three stages. These are the effects of R&D expenditures on basic research output, measured by publications, the effect of publications and applied R&D expenditures on trial plot yields, and the diffusion of the trial plot technologies, which raises yields on farms. Applying the model to the FBI's wheat varieties allows estimation of the lag structures. In contrast to the results for aggregate agricultural research, for a single plant breeding programme alone there is a considerable lead time before there is any response, followed by a lag distribution only a few years long. The returns to the R&D investments are calculated from the causal chain model, from single equation estimates and by evaluating the yield advantage of the PBI varieties. All three approaches give consistent results, which show that the returns to barley and wheat alone were sufficient to support the entire PBI budget and still give rates of return to applied research of between 14 and 25%. The return to the basic science expenditures of the John Innes Institute has a lower bound of 17%, but must have been even higher than for the PBI if the other Institutes were taken into account. The paper concludes by commenting on the effects of the privatization of the PBI.     

Returns to wheat breeding research in Nepal

Returns to investment in wheat breeding research in Nepal were estimated for two periods: (1) the Green Revolution period (1960–1990), when modern semidwarf wheat varieties first appeared and spread throughout the country, and (2) the post-Green Revolution period (after 1990), when first-generation modern varieties will be replaced by newer materials. Major benefits of the Nepalese wheat breeding program have included maintenance of disease resistance and faster dissemination of exotic germplasm. Attractive rates of return to investment in wheat breeding have been due in part to Nepal's ability to capture spillover benefits from neighboring countries and from international agricultural research centers.     

National agricultural commodity research priorities for Pakistan

A future agricultural research agenda for Pakistan and its provinces was developed as part of the national master agricultural research plan (NMARP) under the Government of Pakistan, World Bank agricultural research project II (ARP-II). The current research agenda mainly keeps pace with maintenance research and little contribution is being made to increase the productivity above maintenance levels for most crop and livestock commodities. Thus, the present Pakistan agricultural research system cannot contribute in any substantial or efficient way to the narrowing of Pakistan's projected food deficit anticipated in the next 15 years. A major thrust of the ARP-II project was identifying a new research agenda with agricultural research priority setting as the basis. An ex ante economic surplus priority setting analysis at the national level was undertaken for selected agricultural commodities as part of the priority setting process. Three eparate research funding scenarios were analyzed: (1) Scenario I: an ex ante analysis using the present research commodity funding levels and present research management level for each year over the next five years, (2) Scenario II: an ex ante analysis using double the present funding level for each year over the next 5 years with a higher research management level than at present, and (3) Scenario III; an ex ante analysis at an ‘optimally’ funded level with a higher research management level. An efficiency index (NPV divided by the present value of research expenditure) was used for the priority ranking of commodities. A framework for using the information generated by the ex ante economic surplus method is presented. The results of the analysis proved to be useful as baseline information for researchers and research managers to assess the overall budget commitment required for agricultural research in Pakistan and for identifying an overall research strategy at the national level.     

Trade Creation and Diversion Effects of Preferential Trade Associations on Agricultural and Food Trade

Agricultural market distortions remain a major focus of contention in world trade negotiations. Estimates of the effects of liberalising current agricultural trade restrictions indicate an approximately $385 billion increase in global welfare, with the disproportionate share of the benefit being enjoyed by developing countries. In response to difficulties in adopting agricultural trade reforms, individual groups of countries have formed multiple bilateral and regional preferential trade agreements (PTA) to enhance trade among members. Few sectoral analyses exist of the effects on agricultural and food product trade of PTAs. This research uses a gravity model to isolate the effects of various PTAs on both intra‐ and extra‐bloc agricultural and food product trade for three time periods: 1995, 2000 and 2004. Findings strongly support PTA benefits in terms of increased intra‐bloc trade in both sectors. The findings also generally support trade creation in agricultural products. PTA membership was also associated with food trade creation in most cases, although diversion was observed for several associations composed primarily of developing countries.