重庆市城市用地供需状况研究

首先从供给数量和供给质量两方面,分析了重庆市区城市建设用地的供给状况。耕地在重庆市城市建设用地的供给来源中占有重要地位,但供给数量有限;受重庆市区自然条件的限制,城市建设用地的质量较差,表现在坡地多、平地少,冲沟多、地块小,难建地多、宜建地少,所以,重庆市城市建设用地的供给能力相当有限。其次,分析了重庆市区城市建设用地的需求状况。从城市GDP的增长、重点建设项目和城市人均用地水平的提高这三个方面分析了城市建设用地的未来需求趋势。结论是：重庆城市建设用地的供给相当有限,而需求量很大;随着未来重庆市经济社会的发展,城市用地的供需矛盾将成为城市发展中面临的一个重大问题。从合理利用和保护土地资源,为重庆的经济发展提供用地支持和保障的角度出发,文章就此问题提出了对策和建议。     

OUTPUT GROWTH AND STRUCTURAL REFORM IN LATIN AMERICA: HAVE BUSINESS CYCLES CHANGED?

This paper documents important changes in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth of six large Latin American countries. The main results can be summarized as follows. First, there is evidence of a structural break in real GDP toward stronger mean growth and a substantial reduction in volatility. Second, the timing of the breaks suggests that the important changes in economic policies of the 1980s and 1990s have been effective in permanently improving economic growth in the region. These changes in the growth processes imply recessions that are shorter in duration and milder in amplitude. The sustained increase in commodity prices observed in recent years explains an important share of growth in the region since 2003. But after accounting for the effect of commodity prices, there is even stronger evidence of a structural break in real GDP growth. (JEL E32)     

Determinants of age at marriage in Karnataka during 1971-1981: a district level analysis

"In this paper we examined the interdistrict variations in mean age at marriage of males and females in Karnataka [India] in two points of time, 1971 and 1981, and also the possible factors influencing this variation....A multivariate analysis of the determinants of mean age at marriage in Karnataka showed that literacy rate, sex ratio of the population and percentage of villages electrified are important in explaining the regional and time variation in age at marriage of both sexes.... Our regression results indicated that a 10 per cent increase in female literacy rate is associated with approximately one-year increase in female age at marriage. However, neither the increase in female literacy nor the changes in the sex ratio of the population could explain all the increase in female age at marriage during 1971-81. This indirectly suggests that there was an increase in female age at marriage among all socio-economic groups."     

Growth still is good for the poor

Average incomes in the poorest two quintiles on average increase at the same rate as overall average incomes. This is because, in a global dataset spanning 121 countries over the past four decades, changes in the share of income of the poorest quintiles are uncorrelated with changes in average income. The variation in changes in quintile shares is also small relative to the variation in growth in average incomes, implying that the latter accounts for most of the variation in income growth in the poorest quintiles. In addition, we find little evidence that changes in the bottom quintile shares are correlated with country-level factors that are typically considered as important determinants for growth in average incomes or for changes in inequality. This evidence confirms the central importance of economic growth for improvements in living standards at the low end of the income distribution. It also illustrates the difficulty of identifying specific macroeconomic policies that are significantly associated with the growth rates of those in the poorest quintiles relative to everyone else.     

THE COST OF INCOME REDISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA*

This paper analyses the effect of raising effective marginal tax rates on the income of the representative household in each gross income decile in Australia by one percentage point, and distributing the proceeds of the tax increase either in the form of an equal per capita grant, or as an equal payment to members of households in the lower half of the income distribution. The effectiveness of the program in redistributing income is measured as the ratio of total gains in disposable income to households in target deciles to losses in non-target groups, or as the proportional reduction in the poverty gap. The cost is measured as the ratio of the sum of the income-equivalent of changes in the welfare of non-target groups to those of target groups, or as the ratio of income-equivalent losses to gains.     

FACTORS IN CANADA-UNITED STATES REAL INCOME DIFFERENCES

This paper is a part of a larger study of economic growth in Canada, following the methods developed by Edward Denison in his book The Sources of Economic Growth in the United States and the publication Why Growth Rates Differ. The new material in this paper relates to Canada and the Canadian/U.S. comparison, while the material on Northwest Europe is drawn from the Brookings study. The present paper sets out the results to date on the differences in real output per employed person between Canada and the United States for one year, 1960. At this stage in our research the results indicate that the level of real output per employed person in Canada was about 20 per cent lower than in the United States in that year. On the basis of historical output data, it would appear that this margin of difference in Canadian/U.S. product levels has persisted throughout the present century. The central part of this paper examines the significance of differences in factor inputs in Canada and the United States and their contribution to the difference in income. The level of inputs per employed person in Canada accounts for only about 2 percentage points of the income difference between Canada and the United States. These results indicate that the overwhelming part of the difference in output per employed person between the two countries reflects the differences in output in relation to total factor inputs, rather than the magnitude of other factor inputs used in combination with labour. This result is consistent with earlier studies by Denison and others which have indicated the crucial importance of output in relation to total factor inputs, both in output growth over time and intercountry comparisons of output level. The body of the paper can give only brief attention to the numerous conceptual and statistical questions that arise in such a wide-ranging study, and the authors do not pretend to have tackled, let alone resolved, all of the wide range of problems related to this study. Nor do they claim any high degree of precision for the results, especially in the light of the statistical limitations of the basic data.     

The U-shape of happiness in Scotland

We examine well-being in Scotland using micro data from the Scottish Health Survey and the UK Annual Population Surveys. We find evidence of a midlife nadir or zenith in Scotland in well-being at around age 50 using a variety of measures of both happiness and unhappiness. We confirm that higher consumption of fruit and vegetables is associated with higher levels of happiness in Scotland. We compare this with evidence for England from the Health Survey of England. The decline in well-being between youth and midlife is comparable in size to the loss of a spouse or of a job and around half of the fall in well-being in the COVID-19 lockdown. We also find a midlife peak in suicides in Scotland. Despite higher mortality and suicide rates in Scotland than in England, paradoxically we find that the Scots are happier than the English. Northern Ireland is the happiest of the four home countries. We also find evidence of U-shapes in England, Wales and Northern Ireland in the mid to late forties.     

A look at jobless recoveries in G7 countries

We study changes in the plucking behavior of employment growth, as well as changes in its relationship with the output cycle in the G7 countries. Using both revised and real-time data, we consider several popular measures of the output cycle. For most countries, we see significant evidence in favor of structural changes in the response coefficients of employment growth to its own gap, suggesting much slower recoveries in labor markets, consistent with the jobless recoveries hypothesis. However, we also find evidence in favor of heterogeneity across countries, both in the responses of employment to employment gaps and in the responses of employment to the output cycle.     

THE INEQUALITY OF WEALTH I N BRITAIN'S NORTH AMERICAN COLONIES: THE IMPORTANCE OF THE RELATIVELY POOR

This paper presents original estimates of the distribution of personal wealth in Nova Scotia, Canada in 1871 using the estate multiplier technique and discusses the sensitivity of estimates of the wealth distribution to the assumed wealth holdings of non-probated decedents. We examine, in particular, the implications of assuming: (1) that non-probated decedents had zero wealth, (2) that the wealth distribution was quasi-Paretian (with parameters that can be estimated from the distribution of wealth of probated decedents) or (3) that the wealth distribution had the form assumed by A. H. Jones in her analysis of wealth inequality in the Thirteen Colonies in 1774. We conclude that it is unlikely that large estates escaped the probate process in Nova Scotia, but it is also unlikely that all non-probated decedents had equal wealth-thus our "best guess" is that the wealth distribution of non-probated decedents was quasi-Paretian. However, a methodology similar to Jones' would have implied considerably less measured inequality in the wealth distribution and greater average wealth in 1871– and would therefore have altered our perception of long term trends in the distribution of wealth and in the rate of accumulation of wealth. The measurement of wealth inequality in a society with a significant slave population, such as the thirteen colonies in 1774, is also highly sensitive to the treatment of slavery. Our preferred estimates of wealth inequality in Nova Scotia in 1871 and in the Thirteen Colonies in 1774 indicate a much higher inequality in the distribution of personal wealth than exists today.     

Biodiversity conservation, loss of natural capital and interest rates

It is argued that there is neither regular relationship between changes in the level of the market rate of interest and variations in the rate of biodiversity loss nor does such a regular relationship occur between alterations in the market rate of interest and changes in the rate of natural resource extraction. However, some texts suggest otherwise. Microeconomic examples are given in which a rise in the market rate of interest results in increased biodiversity loss and others in which it does not. It is also posited that the rate of biodiversity loss (as well as the rate of natural resource extraction) tends to rise with the level of aggregate investment and aggregate economic activity. It is demonstrated, using macroeconomic models, that the market rate of interest can increase or decrease with a rise in aggregate investment and also with an increase in the level of aggregate economic activity. Therefore, changes in biodiversity loss (and in the rate of natural resource extraction) are independent of variations in the market rate of interest in macroeconomic models.     

Nonperforming Loans and Purchase of Loans by Public Asset Management Companies in Malaysia and Thailand

This paper explores the factors which eliminated the nonperforming loan (NPL) problem in Malaysia and Thailand following the 1997 Asian financial crisis. The number of NPL, which expanded in the aftermath of the crisis, has since declined in most South‐East Asian countries. Although previous studies have explored the causes of the increase in NPL numbers, few have analysed the factors that contributed to the reduction in their number in Asia. In Malaysia and Thailand, authorities put in place several measures to manage NPL. As a vehicle to acquire NPL from banks, Malaysia established the Pengurusan Danaharta Nasional Berhad (Danaharta) in 1998, while Thailand established the Thai Asset Management Corporation (TAMC) in 2001. We analyse whether the characteristic features of banks, improvements in macroeconomic conditions, and facilities for purchasing loans caused a reduction in the number of NPL in Malaysia and Thailand. The results suggest that selling loans to a public asset management company was effective in reducing the number of NPL in Thailand. While macroeconomic conditions influenced the decline in NPL ratios in Thailand, in Malaysia, well performing commercial banks and large commercial and investment banks generally had smaller NPL ratios throughout and following the crisis.     

THE COST OF INCOME REDISTRIBUTION IN AUSTRALIA

This paper analyses the effect of raising effective marginal tax rates on the income of the representative household in each gross income decile in Australia by one percentage point, and distributing the proceeds of the tax increase either in the form of an equal grant, or as an equal payment to members of households in the lower half of the income distribution. The effectiveness of the program in redistributing income is measured as the ratio of total gains in disposable income to households in target deciles to losses in non-target groups, or as the proportional reduction in the poverty gap. The cost is measured as the ratio of the sum of the income-equivalent of changes in the welfare of non-target groups to those of target groups, or as the ratio of income-equivalent losses to gains.     

The role of consumption patterns,demand and technological factors on the recent evolution of CO2 emissions in a group of advanced economies

Changes in production structures and modifications of patterns of consumption are key factors in the fight against environmental harm. Initiatives such as Agenda 21, promoted by the UN, highlight the need to evaluate the relationships among factors of production and consumption, innovation and demographics, and the environment, in the attainment of sustainable development. In this context, our work studies in depth those factors underlying the economic activity of households, in a representative group of European Union countries and the US. Within the framework of an input–output model, a Structural Decomposition Analysis is considered in order to identify the weight that growth in demand, changes in patterns of consumption, changes in the distribution of income, the substitution of inputs, and changes in energy intensity have all had on the evolution of CO₂ emissions. The work specifically seeks to identify common patterns and differential behaviors among productive sectors in the European social environment. The results show that growth in demand, and therefore in production, largely absorbs the limited effect of technological and efficiency improvements and the incipient changes observed in consumption patterns.     

CYCLICAL FLUCTUATIONS IN FACTOR SHARES AND THE SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF INCOME

The way in which cyclical fluctuations in activity in the U.K. economy affect factor income shares and the channels through which these effects work through to the size distribution of income are traced. Using National Accounts data, the impact of an upturn in activity in increasing the shares of profits and self-employment income in factor incomes, and of self-employment and rent, interest and dividends in personal incomes, is quantified. Using Family Expenditure Survey micro-data, the resulting shift in decile shares in personal income, which is towards the top of the size distribution, is estimated.     

Employment effects of foreign acquisition

This paper investigates the employment effects of foreign acquisitions in acquired firms in Swedish manufacturing during the 1990s; a period characterized by a dramatic increase in foreign ownership. We find some evidence of positive employment effects in acquired firms and it seems that the employment of skilled labor increases more than that of less-skilled labor. Our results indicate that the positive employment effects are more pronounced in acquired non-MNEs than in Swedish MNEs. Furthermore, we observe shifts in skill intensities toward higher shares of skilled labor in non-MNEs taken over by foreign MNEs, but not in acquired Swedish MNEs.     

Public trust and corruption perception: disaster relief

Public trust in government and nongovernment organizations is essential to the public’s willingness to donate and to support those organizations. We measure public trust in disaster aid using people’s perception of these organizations’ effectiveness in delivering aid relief to the victims of two recent major earthquakes in China. Based on the survey data collected in 2013 from about 2100 residents in Hong Kong, we document the vulnerability of these residents’ trust perceptions in aid delivery. We find that the sharp decline in trust perception is highly negatively correlated with their perception of corruption of local governments in China.     

开放条件下中国工业能源强度的影响因素分析——基于31个行业面板数据的实证分析

本文运用中国工业31个行业1998年-2004年的面板数据,分析了能源价格、FDI的进入程度、进出口商品结构、工业内部的行业结构和R＆D投资强度对中国工业能源强度的影响。研究发现,能源价格的上涨对提高工业能源利用效率有显著的促进作用;降低FDI的进入程度与R＆D投资强度都有助于降低工业特别是高能源强度行业的能源强度;降低高能源强度行业的出口额在工业出口总额中的比重,有利于降低高能源强度行业的能源强度,进口商品结构变化对工业能源强度没有显著影响;降低高能源强度行业的工业增加值在整个工业增加值中的比重,有助于降低全工业行业和低能源强度行业的能源强度。     

Productivity change in Canadian mining 1957–1979

This paper calculates multifactor productivity trends in seven Canadian mining industries and relates changes in productivity to various factors, including changes in output and factor prices and the decline in the quality of the ore being mined. It is found that productivity decline in mining has been pronounced and tended to predate that of manufacturing by several years. There are indications that the most important factors in the decline have been the fall in mineral grade, contraction of output, increases in interest rates and an apparent decline in the rate of technical innovation.     

安徽省上市公司动态竞争能力研究

本文运用动态分析方法对安徽省上市公司的竞争能力进行了评价;并进一步分析了安徽省家电行业上市公司在全国家电行业上市公司中的竞争地位。研究结果表明,安徽省上市公司的整体竞争能力不强,家电行业上市公司在全国同行业企业中的竞争能力偏弱。因此,安徽省上市公司应进一步采取措施,尽快进行企业变革和创新,以提升其竞争能力。