中国国际收支结构的变迁及启示

本文通过对1982～2004年间中国国际收支一级账户结构、次级账户结构和差额平衡结构的考察发现:中国国际收支结构的发展历程带有明显的政策烙印;“双顺差”的形成和发展具有相当的可持续性;正在进行的人民币汇率机制改革短期内对国际收支结构难以发挥显著的作用,长期来看影响深远。     

中国特殊国际收支结构原因探析——基于人口年龄结构的视角

近年来,中国国际收支出现经常账户和资本账户双顺差的局面,这有别于一般发展中国家的模式,并且这种特殊国际收支结构成为国内外理论界和实务界关注的热点。本文通过理论推演和实证分析认为,中国特殊国际收支结构与人口年龄结构有着密切联系,提出当前我们不能陶醉在国际收支双顺差的美丽光环之中,要清醒地看到其中的隐忧,并建议采取相应对策加以应对。     

中国的双顺差、日本经验及失衡调整

我要讲的题目是"中国的双顺差:失衡与相互依赖",主要是从90年代开始,在过去十六年中的十三年,中国国际收支经常账户和资本账户同时出现了盈余,也就是出现了双顺差.这是非常特殊的现象.首先,我从国别比较的角度来透视中国出现双顺差的独特性,然后分析中国的双顺差是如何产生的.我认为,中国的双顺差主要是由加工贸易和外商直接投资推动的.     

全球经济失衡环境下我国双顺差的形成机理及政策建议

本文探讨了在全球经济失衡的环境下我国国际收支的不平衡现象,从双顺差的结构入手,分别分析了经常账户和资本与金融账户的顺差形成原因,并在深入分析双顺差的规模和形成机理的基础上,提出社会保障、汇率、出口贸易等方面的政策建议,力求在后危机时代促进出口增长模式的转变,调整国际收支不平衡现象。     

中国国际收支双顺差现象研究:对中国外汇储备突破万亿美元的理论思考

本文研究中国国际收支双顺差现象的特征含义、发生根源及其与汇率失衡的关系。首先以国际收支结构变动和外汇储备增长作为观察背景,从经济学理论和国际经验角度考察中国双顺差现象的特征含义。然后从加工贸易与外商直接投资组合效应角度分析产生双顺差现象的直接原因,从产品内分工时代条件与中国经济开放成长道路阶段性特点角度考察其深层根源。最后探讨双顺差与人民币汇率变动关系,着重分析近年人民币汇率低估对双顺差规模激增的影响。     

对我国国际收支顺差的成本与风险的分析

中国出现持续的国际收支"双顺差"是一个极不合理的现象。本文从产业结构、劳动力素质、资源环境、金融体系等方面分析了我国双顺差的成本与风险,提出了健全和完善国际收支平衡机制的必要性。     

国际收支双顺差的原因及对货币政策的挑战

一、我国国际收支双顺差的现状国际收支是指一定时期内(可以是1年、1个季度或1个月),本国居民与外国居民之间全部经济交易的系统记录。国际收支账户可以分为三大类:经常账户、资本/金融账户、错误和遗漏账户。从1994年开始,我国的国际收支不     

中国国际收支“双顺差”现象短期内难以逆转

从1990～2008年,19年的时间里,中国的国际收支呈现出"双顺差"现象,延续时间之久,差额数值之大实属世界罕见。本文分别对中国国际收支中经常项目顺差和资本与金融项目顺差进行了原因分析,指出消费、税收、宏观经济政策、人民币可自由兑换等方面存在的问题是"双顺差"现象的根源所在,得出短期内"双顺差"现象不可能改变的结论。     

探析中国国际收支双顺差成因及对策

目前中国国际收支正处于双顺差阶段,本文将提供一个分析中国国际收支双顺差的理论框架,分析了双顺差的成因、利弊以及相应的政策建议.在分析国际收支双顺差的原因时笔者深入得从居民高储蓄、外商直接投资、国际投机资本这三个方面入手,并针对国际收支顺差给我国经济带来的一些弊端,相应得提出了解决政策.     

中国国际收支“双顺差”研究与思索

中国国际收支已经多年处于经常账户和资本账户的"双顺差"下,这是由我国对内对外的经济和国际贸易政策所决定的。"双顺差"在给我国带来了源源不断的外汇的同时也给我国的经济增长带来压力.反映出当前我国经济政策改革调整的必要性,产业结构调整和解决民生问题的迫切性。     

Vanishing of China's Twin Surpluses and Its Policy Implications

This paper argues that the twin surpluses in China's balance of payments will disappear in the future as a result of external and internal structural changes. China's current account surplus will diminish as a result of the decline in the goods trade surplus, the expanding service trade deficit and negative investment income. China's capital account might shift from surplus to deficit as a result of shrinking net direct investment inflows and more volatile short‐term capital flows. When the twin surpluses no longer exist, the normalization of the US treasury bond yields will be sped up, terminating the one‐way appreciation of the RMB exchange rate; the People's Bank of China's pressure to sterilize inflows will be alleviated, and new problems for the People's Bank of China's monetary operation will emerge; new financial vulnerabilities for the Chinese economy will arise. Finally, the present paper provides some policy suggestions for the Chinese Government to deal with the declining twin surpluses.     

国际收支失衡条件下我国货币政策的有效性研究

在开放经济条件下,国际收支活动对国内的货币供给将产生巨大影响。我国目前国际收支中存在经常项目和资本项目双顺差的情况。那么国际收支失衡的条件下,货币当局应该采用什么样的货币政策中介目标,采用什么样的政策工具才能保证宏观调控目标的时间,就成为亟待研究的理论和现实课题。     

加工贸易、FDI与中国国际收支不平衡

自1994年我国实行汇率并轨制度以来,中国国际收支一直面临着经常项目与资本和金融项目双顺差的结构,产生这种结构的原因是多方面的,本文从以加工贸易为主的贸易特征和由于对外资优惠而吸收的大规模外商直接投资(FDI)这两方面入手,分析他们对中国国际收支不平衡产生的影响。     

国际收支顺差、外商投资与我国房地产投资的失衡分析

全球金融海啸以前，我国经济失衡的基本特征是：国际收支顺差透过储备资产引发基础货币供给增加，导致国内房地产投资过热。文章通过对国际收支顺差、外商投资与国内房地产投资之间关系进行实证分析，认为国际收支顺差与外商投资是我国房地产投资过热的主要原因，并依此提出扭转经济对出口与投资依赖的格局、增强人民币汇率弹性、引导外资流向、规范管理房地产投资等标本兼治的政策建议。     

国际铸币税收支对我国经济影响的实证分析

人民币国际化使我国获得国际铸币税收入,由于国际收支顺差导致的外汇储备增加又使我国支出国际铸币税,因此,国际铸币税也有一个收支问题.本文在计算我国1996年-2011年国际铸币税收支情况的基础上,运用相关性和回归方法实证分析了我国的国际铸币税收支对我国经济的影响.最后得出：我国的国际铸币税收支对我国的物价水平、利率水平、汇率水平、财政赤字、净出口没有影响,对我国的GDP、货币供给和外汇储备有影响.     

Problematiek rond de britse Betalingsbalans

Summary An analysis of developments prior to the devaluation of sterling in November 1967 suggests that a fundamental disequilibrium became unambiguously clear only relatively shortly before the parity actually was adjusted. The devaluation provided scope for an improvement in the balance of payments of something like $2,5 billion. A very restrictive fiscal programme was to be the main instrument to help achieve this result. The long interval between devaluation and this policy to become fully effective, combined with the failure to back it up with an adequate monetary policy seem to be the principal factors behind the disappointing performance of the U.K. balance of payments during more than a year after the devaluation. Early in 1969 fiscal policy had reached its full impact and significantly more emphasis was placed on monetary policy. Although these factors will, belatedly, contribute to the achievement of a balance of payments surplus, it is doubtful whether the original goal — a sustained surplus of at least $ 1,2 billion a year — can still be attained. In that case a long-run solution to the problem of Britain's massive short-run debts appears to be no more than the recognition of an unpleasant reality.      

Rules for Correcting External Imbalances

Three aspects to adjustment are sufficiently distinct to be treated separately. The first is the balance of payments concept that is to be adjusted. The candidates are the overall balance of payments, the “basic balance”, and the current account balance. The latter is the preferred concept; specifically, all countries should aim to keep their current balances within a range of +/− 3% of GDP. The second are the instruments to be used to adjust a payments imbalance. The basic analyses are due to Hume and Meade, for the cases in which the country respectively does not and does use variations in the exchange rate as an instrument to facilitate the adjustment process. The third relates to the question of whether the international community should build some mechanism, besides the threat of reserve depletion, that will encourage its members to pursue adjustment. Most deficit countries already have an incentive to adjust. In contrast, the incentives for surplus countries to adjust are weak and need strengthening, perhaps by permitting trade retaliation for an undervalued exchange rate through the WTO or perhaps by taxation. The United States are the most difficult case because the construction of a suitable incentive for this country would probably be dependent on reform of the reserve supply mechanism.     

Changes of Thai economy since 19701 1

Within the last 30 years, the number of Thai population increased from 35 million to 62 million, the general price level went up 6 times, and Thai currency baht devaluated 2.2 times against the dollar. The industrial production increased 36 times nominally. The biggest industry of Thailand changed from agriculture to manufacture, and the total value of exports jumped by 192 times and that of imports grew by 95 times. Thai current account balance had recorded a deficit every year from 1970 to 1996. During the same period of time, however, the capital account balance had shown surplus. The inflow of foreign capital was the only stronghold of Thai economy at that time. In 1997, Thailand suddenly experienced a total change of its external environment From then on, Thai current account shifted from a deficit to a surplus and Thai capital account turned from a surplus to a deficit. The conclusion of this paper indicates that the future of Thai economy is heavily dependent on whether the amount of surplus in Thai current account could surpass the deficit in Thai capital account