Do Changes in Dividends Signal the Future or the Past?

Many dividend theories imply that changes in dividends have information content about the future earnings of the firm. We investigate this implication and find only limited support for it. Firms that increase dividends in year 0 have experienced significant earnings increases in years ?1 and 0, but show no subsequent unexpected earnings growth. Also, the size of the dividend increase does not predict future earnings. Firms that cut dividends in year 0 have experienced a reduction in earnings in year 0 and in year ?1, but these firms go on to show significant increases in earnings in year 1. However, consistent with Lintner's model on dividend policy, firms that increase dividends are less likely than nonchanging firms to experience a drop in future earnings. Thus, their increase in concurrent earnings can be said to be somewhat “permanent.” In spite of the lack of future earnings growth, firms that increase dividends have significant (though modest) positive excess returns for the following three years.     

Dividend changes and earnings performance in Japan

This paper tests the dividend-signaling hypothesis using Japanese data. It is found that firms that increase dividends experience earnings growth in the preceding years but earnings declines in the subsequent years. Just the opposite tendency is found for firms that decrease and omit dividends. These results go against the hypothesis. Nevertheless, the event study results show that the market reacts positively (negatively) to the announcements of dividend increases (decreases). Thus, the evidence indicates that managers tend to be overly optimistic or pessimistic about future earnings when changing dividends, and the market tends to overreact to dividend change news.     

THE IMPACT OF UNEXPECTED EARNINGS AND DIVIDENDS ON ABNORMAL RETURNS TO EQUITY

This paper contributes to the empirical literature which documents the existence of a positive association between unexpected earnings and/or dividend announcements and abnormal returns to equity. The paper addresses some of the methodological limitations evident in the literature. In particular, one methodological difficulty encountered by previous studies is that since earnings and dividend announcements are usually made contemporaneously it is difficult to assess the marginal effect of either announcement on security returns. This problem is dealt with by constructing portfolios of securities which are randomized with respect to unexpected earnings (dividends), but which are systematically ranked on unexpected dividends (earnings). The results indicate that unexpected earnings announcements have a significant marginal impact on abnormal returns. In addition, there is evidence of an impact of unexpected dividends on returns, but it is weaker than unexpected earnings.     

Do firms use dividend changes to signal future profitability? A simultaneous equation analysis

This paper retests the signaling hypothesis of dividends by examining whether managers change dividends to signal their expectation of earnings prospects using a simultaneous-equation approach. This approach allows us to more clearly test the earnings prospects signaling hypothesis and facilitates the control of several alternative motives that managers may have for changing dividends. We also examine the information content of dividend changes with respect to future earnings changes in the same model system. Our results show that managers change dividends to signal equity-scaled rather than asset-scaled earnings prospects. In addition, we find evidence that managers also change dividends for signaling previous earnings changes and for catering to dividend clienteles. As for the information content of dividend changes, we find that dividend changes have significant and negative impact on ROA changes. The findings suggest that if investors consistently cannot recognize the signaling purpose and find that dividend increases (decreases) are not useful in predicting favorable (unfavorable) future earnings, managers may someday give up using dividend changes to signal the earnings prospects of their firms because they cannot obtain the expected market benefits anymore.     

Operating performance following dividend decreases and omissions

Using quarterly data and benchmarks based on past performance characteristics, I find little evidence that earnings change following 661 dividend decreases and 484 dividend omissions between 1980 and 1998. The exception is that earnings deteriorate during the quarter of dividend omissions, but they recover within a couple of quarters. My results further suggest that the lack of a more pronounced earnings decline is neither attributable to a contemporaneous and confounding increase in share repurchases, to earnings management, nor to improving investment opportunities, and the results are similar for firms that are not predicted to cut dividend payouts based on their financial flexibility. Instead, I find some evidence that the negative stock price reaction reflects the dismal performance during the quarter of the announcement, especially for firms that omit dividends, and that the market interprets the dividend announcements too pessimistically.     

POST-ANNOUNCEMENT DRIFTS ASSOCIATED WITH DIVIDEND CHANGES

In this paper I assess the presence of post-announcement drifts associated with dividend changes after controlling for earnings surprises. All quarterly cash dividend changes announced by firms listed on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) and American Stock Exchange (AMEX) from 1974 through 1989 are examined. The results show that significant post-announcement drifts associated with dividend changes are present after controlling for earnings surprises. However, the results are not conclusive on whether the market fully incorporates the simple time-series properties of dividends.     

THE RELATION AMONG DIVIDEND POLICY,FIRM SIZE,AND THE INFORMATION CONTENT OF EARNINGS ANNOUNCEMENTS

In this paper we investigate the role of dividends in explaining the size effect. The previous literature concludes that before the firm's earnings announcement, small firm stock prices impound less information than large firm stock prices. This size effect is evidenced by the greater market reaction to small firm earnings announcements than to large firm earnings announcements. We find that if the dividend announcement precedes the earnings announcement, no size effect exists. The implication is that the information conveyed by dividend announcements includes the information conveyed to investors in large firms by other information sources. However, if the firm does not pay dividends or if the firm's earnings announcement precedes its dividend announcement, the size effect exists. The implication is that dividends do not completely explain the size effect. That is, there are information sources other than dividends that are exclusively available to investors in large firms, and the information provided by these sources is reflected in the stock price of large firms before the earnings announcement.     

Dividend Changes and Future Profitability

We investigate the relation between dividend changes and future profitability, measured in terms of either future earnings or future abnormal earnings. Supporting "the information content of dividends hypothesis," we find that dividend changes provide information about the level of profitability in subsequent years, incremental to market and accounting data. We also document that dividend changes are positively related to earnings changes in each of the two years after the dividend change.     

The Effect of Past Earnings and Dividend Patterns on the Information Content of Dividends When Earnings Are Reduced

This study pursues two objectives: first, to provide evidence on the information content of dividend policy, conditional on past earnings and dividend patterns prior to an annual earnings decline; second, to examine the effect of the magnitude of low earnings realizations on dividend policy when firms have more‐or‐less established dividend payouts. The information content of dividend policy for firms that incur earnings reductions following long patterns of positive earnings and dividends has been examined ( DeAngelo et al., 1992, 1996 ; Charitou, 2000 ). No research has examined the association between the informativeness of dividend policy changes in the event of an earnings drop, relative to varying patterns of past earnings and dividends. Our dataset consists of 4,873 U.S. firm‐year observations over the period 1986–2005. Our evidence supports the hypotheses that, among earnings‐reducing or loss firms, longer patterns of past earnings and dividends: (a) strengthen the information conveyed by dividends regarding future earnings, and (b) enhance the role of the magnitude of low earnings realizations in explaining dividend policy decisions, in that earnings hold more information content that explains the likelihood of dividend cuts the longer the past earnings and dividend patterns. Both results stem from the stylized facts that managers aim to maintain consistency with respect to historic payout policy, being reluctant to proceed with dividend reductions, and that this reluctance is higher the more established is the historic payout policy.     

The Earnings Information Content of Dividend Initiations and Omissions

Previous studies have found that dividend initiations and omissions convey important information about subsequent earnings changes. However, this finding may be subject to a sample survival bias. We find that survivorship does not affect the positive relation between dividend changes and past earnings changes. Also, we find dividend omitting firms are able to generate significantly positive earnings one to two years after the omission. However, contrary to previous findings, firms' earnings are not significantly increased following the dividend initiation. The results suggest that survivorship tends to bias inference toward finding that dividends signal future earnings.     

Earnings Response Coefficients and Dividend Policy Parameters

In a seminal paper. Ball and Brown (1968) documented a positive statistical association between earnings surprises and stock returns around an earnings announcement. They concluded that accounting earnings conveyed ‘useful’ information to the market. However, the question of how accounting earnings convey useful information is still being understood. Recent work on this topic has found that current accounting earnings aid investors and analysts in predicting future accounting earnings. Few studies, however, have examined the usefulness of current earnings for predicting other value-relevant attributes. A model by Ohlson (1989a) suggests that investors are also interested in the relationship between current earnings and future dividends. Ohlson's model is supported by empirical tests in this paper which show that the relationship between current earnings and future dividends is significant in explaining cross-sectional variation in earnings response coefficients (ERCs). A second result of interest is that information in dividends substitutes for that in accounting earnings. We find that dividend policy parameters reflect information contained in current earnings. These results add new insights on the information revealed through the analysis of ERCs. Consistent with logic presented here, a symmetrically opposite result is found with respect to dividend response coefficients. The informativeness of earnings (dividends) is found to be negatively (positively) related to the information content of dividends.     

Opportunistic earnings management or performance-related effects? Evidence from dividend-paying firms

We propose that much of the variation in standard (accruals and real-activities) earnings management metrics can be explained by firms' performance trajectories. We test our proposition using dividend change to distinguish high from low performance trajectory firms. We find that standard earnings management metrics have a stronger relation with performance trajectories than with unexpected earnings, a presumed target of earnings management. Firms that appear to manage earnings more are likelier to increase their dividends, but standard earnings management metrics do not explain changes in firm value around dividend change announcements. Applying standard earnings management metrics without taking performance trajectories into account can result in mistaking managers' efforts to increase firm value for earnings management.     

When are dividend increases bad for corporate bonds?

Employing an event study approach, we examine 5,574 bond return reactions to unexpected quarterly dividend change announcements in the U.S. corporate bond market over the period 2002–2014. On average, bond price reaction is in the same direction as dividend changes, which supports the hypothesis that dividend changes signal future firm performance. However, the price reaction varies significantly in the spectrum of bond's risk. Importantly, we document that some bondholders react negatively to unexpected dividend increases, indicating a wealth transfer effect. Such wealth transfer effect is most likely to occur in very high risk bond approaching maturity issued by firms with a low level of cash and incorporated outside Delaware.     

Dividend preference of tradable‐share and non‐tradable‐share holders in Mainland China

Comprehensive data on corporate announcements of Chinese firms allows us to examine the preference for, and determinants of, cash and stock dividends. The results indicate that Chinese public investors prefer stock dividends over cash dividends, which are preferred by large state and legal person shareholders generally. Stock dividends, which do not require an explicit cash outflow from a firm, are found to be positively related to higher earnings, supporting the signalling hypothesis of dividend policy. In an imperfect market, these results have some implications for government regulation of financial markets.     

The Association Between Operating Cash Flows and Dividend Changes: An Empirical Investigation

The Association between earnings and dividend changes has been established since Lintner's (1956) pioneering work. Subsequent research attempted to establish an association between operating cash flows and dividend changes, given earnings, without success (Simons, 1994). Recently, there has been increased attention in cash flow reporting. Regulatory bodies worldwide have stressed the significance of cash flow information in capital markets. Research on the association between cash flows and dividends has been limited, yielding inconclusive results. The purpose of this study is to re-evaluate and extend prior studies by examining the incremental ability of cash flows to explain dividend changes, given earnings. We argue that a positive relationship between cash flows and dividend changes should exist due to liquidity and accruals management considerations. The empirical evidence of this study supports that the dividend changes-cash flow relationship is significantly positive (a) when operating cash flows are low compared to earnings, and (b) when firm growth is moderate.     

Why companies do not pay cash dividends: The Turkish experience

This study uses a survey approach to examine the views of corporate managers of non-dividend-paying firms listed on the Borsa Istanbul (BIST) in order to identify the factors leading to the decision not to pay cash dividends in Turkey. Our survey results show that cash constraints, growth opportunities, low profitability and earnings, and the cost of raising external funds (debt) are the major reasons inducing BIST firms not to pay dividends. Additionally, non-dividend-paying firms consider their shareholder preferences when setting a policy of paying no cash dividends. Yet, they neither view taxes as an important factor for paying no dividends nor perceive that stock repurchases are substitutes for cash dividends. Statistical analysis using secondary data of publicly-traded BIST firms reveals whether the actual corporate actions are consistent with the managerial views revealed by our survey research. These tests show that growth opportunities and debt level have a negative effect on the dividend payment decisions of BIST firms. Also, large blockholders and the existence of multiple large shareholders reduce the likelihood and intensity of paying a cash dividend in the Turkish market. Overall, the evidence suggests that non-dividend-paying companies are likely to be smaller in size, relatively younger (in the earlier stage of their life cycle) with high-growth opportunities or with a low level of profitability (or even loss) and small (negative) earnings. By contrast, highly-profitable, mature and large-size corporations are more likely to pay cash dividends.     

金融危机对公司现金股利政策的影响研究——基于股权结构的视角

论文分析了金融危机对上市公司现金股利政策的影响。研究发现,在金融危机期间,上市公司会降低现金股利支付水平,以应对未来的不确定性。但是,相比非流通股比率低的公司,非流通股比率高的公司在金融危机期间更有可能支付更多的现金股利,以满足非流通股股东对于现金的需求。研究还发现,如果公司在金融危机期间发放现金股利,则市场反应更积极,这说明公司通过股利政策向市场传递了积极的信号。但是,非流通股比率高的公司支付现金股利的市场反应要显著小于非流通股比率低的公司,这可能是市场担心非流通股股东利用现金股利侵害中小股东利益。本文研究结论为完善上市公司的现金股利政策和保护中小投资者利益提供了现实启示。     

Understanding Stock Price Volatility: The Role of Earnings

In an efficient capital market, asset prices vary when investors change their expectations about cash flows, discount rates, or both. Using dividends to measure cash flows, previous research shows that the aggregate dividend‐price ratio varies due to changes in expected discount rates (returns) rather than expected cash flows. In contrast, using accounting earnings instead of dividends as a measure of cash flows, this paper shows that as much as 70% of the variation in the dividend‐price ratio can be explained by changes in expected earnings. Moreover, the paper documents a significant negative correlation between expected returns and expected earnings, suggesting that variations in a common factor to both may generate significant price volatility. The results are consistent with the dividend‐policy irrelevance hypothesis.     

The dynamics of dividends,earnings and prices: evidence and implications for dividend smoothing and signaling

This paper examines the dynamic relations among corporate dividends, earnings and prices, and the implications of these relations for dividend signaling and smoothing. A multiple hypotheses testing method is employed to identify causal relations among the three financial variables and to test the empirical implications of dividend smoothing and signaling models. The results show that dynamic relations exist among dividends, earnings and prices. Empirical evidence is consistent with the contention that dividend changes are often driven by both signaling and smoothing motives. Additional tests are developed to differentiate between the dividend signaling and smoothing models. These tests impose restrictions on the dynamics of the financial variables and information signaling. It is found that dividend changes frequently provide information about unexpected changes in future earnings for a little more than a year.     

Accounting quality,information risk and the term structure of implied volatility around earnings announcements

We examine the association between accounting quality, which is used as a proxy for firm information risk, and the behavior of the term structure of implied option volatility around earnings announcements. By employing a large sample of US firms having options traded on their equity during 1996–2010, we find that lower (higher) accounting quality is significantly associated with stronger (weaker) changes in the steepness of the term structure of implied volatility curve around quarterly earnings announcements. This finding (which is robust to controls for business-stemming uncertainty regarding future firm performance) is consistent with a stronger differential of short vs. long-term uncertainty for higher information risk firms, indicating greater uncertainty on the future economic performance of poorer vs. stronger accounting quality firms. We also establish the trading implications of these findings by demonstrating a (profitable in-sample) self-financed option trading strategy that is based on the quality of the accounting information released on earnings announcement days.