对消费品价格管理体制改革的探析

1979年以来,我国价格管理体制改革取得了很大进展。其中消费品价格管理体制改革迈出的步伐更大。通过“调、放”结合,有力地促进了消费品的生产,丰富了市场供应,使人民生活获得了很大的改善。 但是,消费品价格管理仍然存在不少问题。这在前两年的通货膨胀和近年来的市场销售疲软中,表现尤为突出。这就要求我们从理论和实践的结合上,认真探讨如何继续深化消费品价格管理体制的改革。     

消费品关税减让的价格效应与福利分析——来自2017—2019年关税改革的经验证据

本文检验了2017—2019年消费品关税减让的价格效应和福利影响。结果表明,消费品降税显著降低进口价格和进口成本,促进了进口数量和种类的增加;同时,降税加强了国内市场竞争,降低了国内消费品的价格,提高了居民实际购买力和福利水平。2018年因关税削减引致的进口成本下降约占中国从除美国外其他国家进口消费品总额的1.33%,消费品平均价格同比下降约0.64%。本文为进一步扩大开放、促进消费扩容提质提供了实证支撑。     

我国居民消费价格粘性及其与部门通货膨胀惯性关系

本文把国家发改委价格监测中心发布的109种消费品和服务价格调查数据,重新整合划分为非加工食品、加工食品、普通消费品、耐用消费品、普通服务和管制服务六个类别,研究中国居民消费品和服务价格粘性及其与通胀惯性两者之间的关系,进一步检验价格设定模式。研究结果发现:(1)我国居民消费品和服务价格粘性存在部门异质性。非加工食品、非耐用消费品和耐用品部门价格调整频率大于加工食品部门。服务价格调整频率较低,服务类价格向下调整倾向在6大类中也最小,特别是管制服务价格表现出更强的粘性程度。消费(服务)价格平均上涨倾向大于下跌倾向,这表明价格水平上涨动力较强。(2)企业价格设定行为总体上是状态依赖相关模式,但存在部门的差异性。(3)总体上,价格粘性与通胀惯性正相关。但分部门考察后发现,农产品、加工食品通胀惯性与变化频率负相关,普通消费品、服务通胀惯性与变化频率正相关。这些结论为货币政策制定提供了微观证据,同时对警惕与防范"服务价格驱动通胀"风险具有一定启示意义。     

高档消费品境内外市场销售价格差异的成因分析

本文以在中国境内销售的高档消费品的价格构成作为切入点,通过对高档消费品生产、流通和销售三个主要环节中各自成本占终端市场零售价格比重的揭示,指出现有的"关税论"、"代理费用论"和"物流费用论"都无法完整解释造成高档消费品在境内外市场销售价格差异的成因。真正支撑中国境内市场高档消费品高昂价格的是具有无形资产特征的该高档消费品的"品牌价值"溢价。     

目前价格运行状况及上半年价格走势

受经济持续快速增长、需求大幅度增加以及国际市场价格上涨的影响,今年前4个月我国居民消费价格继续呈现明显上升的态势,同时结构性变化差异明显扩大,生活必需的粮食等食品价格上升速度过快,而一般工业消费品价格继续下降,城乡居民消费价格涨幅差距进一步扩大。价格的这种结构性变化,既增加了低收入阶层经济负担、加剧了收入分     

2006年一季度北京市消费品市场运行态势

2006年，北京市社会消费品零售额增长较快，消费品市场呈现平稳、活跃的运行态势。据北京市统计局统计，1-3月全市累计实现社会消费品零售额780．3亿元（人民币，下同），为年度预期目标3100亿元的25．2％，快于前五年实际进度；增长12．9％，分别比2004、2005年同期高3．4和4．8个百分点，扣除价格因素，实际增长12．8％。     

论中国对美国消费品出口贸易的发展及前景

改革开放以来，美国成为中国很重要的消费品出口市场，中国对美消费品出口值逐年增长，在中国对美国的全部出口商品值中，消费品出口值所占比重曾达到百分之八十以上，近年来也有将近百分之七十。轻工类消费品是中国向美国出口的第一大消费品，由于消费类电子产品出口值增长较快，它已跃升为中国对美国的第二大出口消费品，服装与消费类纺织品及家用电器分别是第三大和第四大出口消费品。尽管中国对美消费品出口会受到一些不利因素的影响。但中美产业比较优势变化的趋势、美国消费市场的增长、中国加入WTO等诸多因素都会推动中国对美国消费品出口贸易的不断发展。     

国际传导和价格改革将主导2010年我国CPI走势

预计2010年我国的经济增长速度在8％-9％之间，低于潜在经济增长率，不存在消费品价格大面积、大幅度上涨的基础。仳从近儿年的情况来看，食品价格和居住价格上涨对CPI的影响很大；     

关系营销:我国企业能运用自如吗?

近二十年以来，传统的交易营销理论受到了来自多方面的批评、普遍认为传统的营销理论主要是在研究消费品市场的基础上发展起来的，在产业市场及日益重要的服务业市场中的应用显得苍白无力。1983年Berrt首次提出了关系营销的概念，随后，以Christophe、Martin．Adrian Payne为代表的Ando-Austrulian学派，以Gnumoos,Gummesson为代表的北欧学派(Nordic School)以及欧美的其它众多学者都对关系营销理论进行了深入的研究，使关系营销得到了长足的发展，逐步建立起了一套较为完善的关系营销理论体系。     

论我国消费品市场的发育和完善

作者认为,目前我国消费品市场存在的主要问题表现在以下几个方面:(1)消费品市场总量失衡;(2)市场波动大;(3)消费品市场价格上涨幅度过大;(4)地区封锁强化;(5)市场秩序混乱;(6)“复归”现象严重。针对上述问题,作者提出了进一步完善消费品市场的对策;(1)增加和改善消费品供给;(2)选择正确的消费政策;(3)理顺价格机制;(4)重新构造流通组织;(5)建立制度性市场规则。     

Is there a quality bias in the Canadian CPI? Evidence from microdata

Rising consumer prices may reflect shifts by consumers to new higher‐priced products, mostly for durable and semi‐durable goods. I apply Bils’ (2009) methodology to newly available Canadian consumer price data for non‐shelter goods and services to estimate how price increases can be divided between quality growth and price inflation. I find that less than one third of observed price increases during model changeovers should be attributed to quality growth. This implies overall price inflation close to inflation measured by the official index. I conclude that, according to Bils’ methodology, the quality bias is not an important source of potential mismeasurement of CPI inflation in Canada.     

Import prices and the distribution of personal income

An indirect translog utility function is estimated for U.S. expenditure on domestically produced non-durables, durables, services and consumer imports. Empirical tests lead to the rejection of homogeneity and linear logarithmic utility as valid functional forms. Estimates of expenditure elasticities indicate that imported varieties of consumer goods are luxuries. An exogenous decrease in the price of these goods, which would occur when tariff barriers are relaxed, would be especially beneficial to upper income consumers. Finally, a redistribution of expenditure from upper income consumers to lower income consumers will increase expenditure on domestically produced goods and reduce expenditure on consumer imports.     

节假日对消费者购买决策的影响——来自非季节性商品的微观证据

区别于研究我国假日经济的已有文献,采用零售扫描数据对消费者购买行为的假日效应进行微观实证研究,主要考察节假日对非季节性商品购买决策的影响。选取具有代表意义的非季节性商品的购买记录进行统计分析,发现其需求在节假日期间并没有明显增加;进一步通过异方差probit模型分析消费者的购买决策,结果表明节假日显著影响了消费者对价格的敏感度,但不同商品价格敏感度的变化方向并不一致。厂商制定节假日促销策略时应对不同的非季节性商品加以区分。     

UNDERSTANDING REAL EXCHANGE RATE MOVEMENTS WITH TRADE IN INTERMEDIATE PRODUCTS

We suggest that it may be ‘too easy’ to attribute real exchange rate movements to deviations from the law of one price. We show that it is immaterial whether one uses seemingly traded goods, nontraded goods, or even a single, unimportant consumer good, say beer. The ease of attributing the variation to any such deviations is explained using a model with intermediate goods trade. In the model, the stage of production determines the traded/nontraded distinction. We find empirical substantiation for the model: law of one price deviations lose explanatory power and, defined appropriately in terms of intermediate goods, relative prices matter.     

Green monetary and fiscal policies: The role of consumer preferences

We establish a two-sector model to simulate the potential effects of green fiscal poli- cies and unconventional green monetary policy on the economy during a recovery or in case of a stimulus policy. We find that instruments such as a carbon tax, an implicit tax on brown loans, and a subsidy for the purchase of green goods are all beneficial to the green sector, in contrast to green quantitative easing. A carbon tax imposed directly on firms in the brown sector is the most effective tool to reduce pollution. More importantly, the marginal effects of green instruments on the economy depend on consumer preferences. Namely, the marginal effects are the most prominent when consumers start to purchase more green goods as an increasing part of their consumption basket. Furthermore, the effects of those green policies are more effective when the elasticity of substitution between green and brown goods increases. This finding suggests that raising consumers’ awareness and ability to consume green goods reinforce the effectiveness of public policies designed for low-carbon transition of the economy.     

资源税计征方式的探讨

随着近几年国际、国内资源价格的过快变动,资源税从量计征的局限性凸显。十八届三中全会提出要加快资源税改革,实行资源有偿使用制度和生态补偿制度。为此,探讨资源税从价计征的改革就显得尤为重要。在对资源税从量定额征收与从价定率征收方式的比较分析后,认为应针对不同资源的供求状况,对于供求状况不稳定、同质产品价格差异较大、计量单位不规范的消费品,按从价定率方式征收;对于供求基本平衡、同质产品价格差异不大、计量单位规范的消费品,按从量定额方式征收。但作为总体趋势,应更多地采用从价税形式的资源税。     

The Behaviour of the Real Exchange Rate: Evidence from an Alternative Price Index

Although the long–run purchasing power parity (PPP) hypothesis is expected to hold across tradable goods, all price indices available to researchers for testing the validity of PPP contain some proportion of non–tradable goods prices, which may generate substantial persistence in the real exchange rate. We construct time series for quarterly price indices that minimize the presence of non–tradable goods for six major economies. Applying recently developed nonlinear econometric techniques to the resulting five US dollar real exchange rate series for the recent floating exchange rate regime, we provide evidence that the nonlinear mean reverting properties of these real exchange rate series are stronger than the mean reverting properties of real exchange rate time series constructed using the consumer price index (CPI). In turn, these results have a natural economic interpretation.
(J.E.L.: F31).     

同种商品中外价格差的形成原因及应对策略

中国用最低的成本为世界制造高端产品,而中国人在购买这些商品时却享受不到低廉的价格,而是用最高的价格购买自己生产的产品,这一话题,引起人们的关注。此种情况已经给我国经济造成了较大影响,分析出现这种情况的原因,一是由从生产者到消费者手中的流通环节产生的,二是由于我国消费者不成熟的消费观念所导致的,三是国内缺乏竞争对手,进口商品的垄断所形成的。当前我国应通过努力降低流通环节成本,注重国内产品的品牌培育,增加日用消费品的进口等方面着手改变中外同种商品差价过大这一现象。     

IN SEARCH OF THE BEST BUNDLE: HILL-CLIMBING CONSUMERS AND THE MICRODYNAMICS OF CONSUMER CHOICE

Abstract. The paper considers the consequences of hill-climbing consumer behavior in the presence of nonconvex utility, and considers the optimal reactions of nonmyopic firms and governments to such behavior. Both firms and governments have an incentive to induce consumers to start consuming goods subject to nonconvexities by offering introductory price discounts. Monopolists appear to offer smaller introductory discounts than is optimal; competitive markets may never be able to supply such goods at all.     

Inflation processes in poland during the transformation period

From 1989 to 1997, the price of goods and consumer services rose very quickly under the influence of strong inflationary processes that took place in the Polish economy. Those processes were also present during the time of a centrally controlled economy. However, they did not appear as an open price inflation. This paper presents an analysis of inflationary processes before and during the transformation period. Special attention is paid to measuring inflation and to the utilization value of indices used for this kind of analysis. The most popular measure of inflation is the consumer price index (CPI). This paper presents a few examples of the many uses of the CPI. The focus is on the interpretation of this index which has special characteristics for the systemic transformation period taking place in Poland.