金融危机与中国经济增长—基于省级面板数据实证分析

本文选取2008～2010年东、中、西部省市级18座代表城市的季度数据并运用面板数据模型,考察了金融危机对中国经济的影响。研究表明,出口额、实际利用外资、社会总消费水平对中国经济增长的相关关系为正数,但是出口额与实际利用外资对经济增长的贡献远不及社会总消费水平对中国经济增长贡献。因此得出,金融危机爆发后,中国经济主要依靠政府政策性调控,然而以政府为主导的经济增长方式并不利于经济的长期稳定发展。     

后金融危机下的外商直接投资政策思考

改革开放30年来,我国利用外商直接投资取得了巨大成就。但自2008年10月开始,由于金融危机的影响,我国利用外资出现下滑迹象。但从长期看,中国仍将是世界上最有投资潜力的国家,积极有效地利用外资也将是我国长期坚持的政策方向。鉴于前一阶段我国利用外资中出现的问题,在后金融危机时代,我国的引资政策需要在经济体制、产业结构、区域政策、国内产业发展等方面进行调整。     

利用外资：从新亮点中寻找契机

近一两年,由于国内经济环境的变化和亚洲金融危机的滞后的影响,中国利用外资总体上呈下滑趋势。据统计,1999年,中国实际利用外资近404亿美元,比上年下降了12.8％,是近年来首次出现的负增长。但是,我们从这种严峻的局面背后也窥探到两个令人欣喜的“亮点”。     

探究金融危机背景下的资本外逃监管

2008年的全球金融危机对国际资本流动造成了非常大的影响,我国是一个利用外资比较多的国家,在目前金融危机背景下,外资的流动状况势必对我国的经济产生很大的影响。基于此,本文就是在金融危机背景下对资本外逃监管进行研究和分析。     

金融危机对国际关系的影响及中国的应对

每一次经济危机都会带来国际政经格局的调整。2008年金融危机影响还未消去,世界格局调整已现端倪。本文认为,金融危机意味着挑战与机遇,中国应该经济从历史规律中寻找答案,走上强国之路。     

长三角利用外资存在的主要问题及对策思考

进入新世纪以来,长三角利用外资快速增长,成为我国利用外资增长最快的区域之一。随着全球金融危机的蔓延,长三角利用外资受其冲击明显。同时,利用外资行业分布失衡,产业同构严重,制造业和房地产业利用外资过大。此外,利用外资方式单一,影响区域经济协调发展。本文对此主要问题进行剖析,并提出相应的对策。     

天津开发区利用外资的经验

发展外向型经济的一个重要问题，就是各经济技术开发区如何积极、合理、有效地利用外资。特别是当前利用外资的机遇与挑战并存的情况下，如何更有效地提出对策，摆脱东南亚金融危机的影响，这是人们十分关注的热点问题。天津经济技术开发区解放思想以“项目为生命线”，主动适应国家政策调整，创造利用外资新优势，采取多种招商方式大胆利用外资的经验，值得借鉴。──编者项目关系到开发区的生存和发，，招商引资指标，是开发区一切经济指标实现的前提和保证。天津开发区建区十几年来，始终坚持“投资者是帝王”、“项目是生命线”、“为投…     

在扩内需、保增长中谋求中国经济发展的新机遇

金融危机对中国经济的影响逐步显现,当前国家宏观政策正进行重大调整。本文本着科学的发展观思想,在扩大内需、保持经济稳定增长的大前提下,通过金融危机对我国经济的影响,针对中国的现状,分析自身存在的优势,在中央提出扩大内需、保增长的措施中寻求中国未来经济发展的新机遇。     

基于G20评估体系的中国宏观经济失衡测度——兼论中国外部失衡治理的影响因素北大核心CSSCISSCI

文章利用G20华盛顿会议提出的评估一国宏观经济失衡的指标体系,对2003～2012年中国总体及内外经济失衡进行测度,结果显示：在内部失衡相对偏高的影响下,中国经济总体失衡依然严重,但自2008年后中国外部失衡正逐步改善,并使总体失衡有所减轻。然而实证检验发现：这一时期中国外部失衡改善仍是一种受金融危机影响的被动调整,其主要来自刺激经济增长情况下中国财政赤字的增加、国内金融深化程度提升、金融危机影响下中国经济增长及进出口增速减慢,中国需在防范外部失衡调整风险和增加实际利益基础上,以内部失衡治理为主,适当控制外部失衡。     

加强监管力度

在宏观层次上,前两年业界讨论并购往往是理论方面更加活跃,但是现在有更多是实践参与其中了。分析中国的经济背景,国有企业的改革是结构调整必要。我们知道,经济结构挑战期的经营成败取决于投资战略。扩大利用外资规模,提高利用外资水平是并购的趋势所在,而利用外资会促进产业结构调整,推进市场体制创新。     

金融危机后全球资本流动新格局给广东经济转型带来的机遇

金融危机后全球资本流动在流动规模、幅度、流向等方面都呈现了新的迹象,资本流动新格局给新兴市场国家的经济发展带来了机遇。广东省是我国利用外资较大的省份之一,面对当前广东经济遇到增长的瓶颈,如何实现经济的转型升级、如何持续经济的增长是我们研究的课题。文章运用比较法和实证法分析资本流动的新格局和广东经济利用外资的特点,并提出合理利用外资实现广东经济转型的新思路。     

美国次贷危机对我国利用外资影响和对策研究

由美国次贷危机引发的国际金融危机对世界经济造成很大冲击,我国经济发展形势也越来越严峻,特别是我国利用外资规模和结构都面临较大影响。鉴于改革开放30年,外资对于我国经济的快速发展产生的重要推动作用,需要对此问题进行研究,并提出相关对策。     

Openness and Economic Performance: A Comparative Study of China and the Asian NIEs

Being the world's largest developing economy, China's successful economic performance since 1978 has had a powerful impact on the global economy. Its open policy features an evolutionary process, involving the gradual liberalization of foreign exchange, international trade and foreign direct investments. This paper evaluates how this evolutionary process has contributed to China's economic success in comparison with the development experiences of the Asian newly industrialized economies (NIEs). It concludes that despite the economic crisis in 1997–98, China and the NIEs represent a successful development model, which is built upon openness and huge investments in physical and human capital.     

我国央行海外资产运作的风险与策略

面对美国爆发的金融危机向全球传递,我国中央银行需要有效地管理好外汇储备资产,调整多元化币种结构,转换增持美国国债的模式,增加进口与海外并购,不仅能提升我国行业竞争力和结构性调整,还能预防因美国经济衰退和美国政府倡导的全球注资带来的通货膨胀,防止日益增加的外汇储备遭遇贬值的风险。当前需要利用美元升值与资本市场价格暴跌产生的并购机遇,进行资本输出,收购价值被严重低估又有潜力的企业,这不仅是对美国未来经济增长的援助,也是增加海外投资收益促使外汇储备增长的新模式。     

北京利用外资与区域产业结构变动的灰色关联分析

外资对北京的经济增长和产业结构优化起到了一定的促进作用,在京不同行业的外资如何影响北京总体经济以及各功能区域的经济是理论与实践关注的焦点。通过建立不同行业外资与北京总体经济、三大产业、各功能区经济灰色关联模型,考察它们之间的关联度,得到不同行业外资与北京三大产业灰色关联度差异明显,不同功能区域外资与北京总体经济关联度差异异常,在此基础上提出北京需要优化外资政策,提高农林牧渔业外资引入,从产业和空间两个维度优化外资的利用。     

Foreign direct investment in crisis and recovery: lessons from the 1997–1998 Asian crisis

Is foreign direct investment more resilient at the onset of an economic crisis and the subsequent economic collapse in a host country compared to other forms of foreign capital inflows? Are affiliates of multinational enterprises in a crisis‐hit country better equipped to withstand a crisis and aid the recovery process by readjusting their investment, production and sales strategies compared to local firms? This article examines these issues in the context of the 1997–1998 economic crisis in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Korea and the Philippines. The findings suggest that foreign direct investment was a relatively stable source of foreign capital in the crisis context and that the affiliates of multinational enterprises were instrumental in ameliorating the severity of economic collapse and facilitating the recovery process.     

Differences in returns to FDI between China's coast and interior: One country,two economies?

In principle, returns to factors of production within single economic systems should exhibit relatively uniform returns. Notwithstanding the fact that over the past 30 years China's economy has increasingly liberalized both internally and externally, it is widely understood that wages received by industrial workers in the coast and interior have widely diverged. However, less is known about how, between China's coast and interior, relative returns to domestic capital and foreign investment have fared, although we do know that the surge of foreign direct investment in China in recent decades has been overwhelmingly concentrated in the coastal region. This paper investigates comparative factor returns within China's industrial sector as measured by the marginal productivities of labor, domestic capital, and foreign capital. Using balanced and unbalanced samples of enterprise data during 1998–2004, we find significant differences between the returns to each of these factors. This paper explores the differences in estimates of factor returns that arise from the use of balanced versus unbalanced samples and least squares versus fixed effects estimators. We conclude that while returns to labor and domestic capital are higher in China's coastal economy, returns to foreign-owned capital are higher in the interior region. Indeed, the differences are indicative of those found in the literature that estimates cross-country comparisons between OECD and developing economies, suggesting that China's economy exhibits some of the differences found between the world's more and less developed economies.     

全球金融危机背景下的中国外贸态势分析及发展战略

此次全球性金融和经济危机使中国外贸面临外需下降、全球贸易保护主义抬头带来的新的调整压力,在危机条件下,连续多年出口快速增长的局面已发生逆转。中国外贸的发展既要充分估计国际经济环境的复杂性和严峻性,深刻认识保持中国外贸平稳较快发展的重要性和艰巨性,又要正确认识到有利条件和积极因素,不断完善政策,加快结构调整和技术创新步伐,加强抵御外部风险能力,努力化解和应对外部冲击。     

The impact of disinvestment and the debt crisis on the South African economy

The paper considers the economic implications of disinvestment and the debt crisis for the South African economy with the aid of some historical analysis of foreign capital inflows and growth. It considers the changes that have occurred in the structure of foreign liabilities over the last twenty years and it examines the quantitative and qualitative roles of private investment and non‐direct investment over this period. The debt issue is examined within the framework of disinvestment, and the conclusion reached is that the economic problems consequent to a withdrawal of foreign loans pose a far greater threat to the South African economy than the loss of foreign direct investment. We assume that disinvestment is not accompanied by any official trade embargo, and the controversy surrounding the relationship between economic growth and social and political change in South Africa is ignored.