中国木质家具出口动因分析及对策建议

采用2002~2007年中国木质家具出口美国、香港、日本、英国和韩国的相关数据,运用CMS模型对中国木质家具出口数据进行测算。结果表明:中国木质家具具有较强的竞争力,目标市场进口规模对中国木质家具出口产生正效应,而产品结构的变化对中国木质家具出口产生负效应。同时,提出中国木质家具企业适应国际技术标准和出口需求的变化,调整产品结构,开拓多元化的海外市场等对策建议。     

Elasticity of demand for Australian cotton in Japan

Although a relatively small producer, Australia exports more than 90 per cent of its cotton production, making it the world's third largest cotton exporter in recent years. This means that export performance plays a major role in determining the profitability of the Australian cotton industry. The primary aim of this study was to determine the competitive position of Australian cotton in the Japanese market, based on the original non-linear Almost Ideal Demand System model using data from 1972 to 1998. The main findings are that the USA had a relatively strong market position and that Australia needs to improve its cost competitiveness and quality image to advance its market standing.     

Export Barriers in the Western Australian Horticulture Industry

This study was designed to identify perceived barriers to exports specific to Australian horticulture industry and the relative impact of these barriers on firms' export decisions. Specifically the study attempted to examine the differences, if any, in perceived export barriers by non-exporting and exporting firms. The analysis suggested seven major export barrier factors/variables. These barriers are somewhat different to barriers identified in recent studies suggesting that export barriers may be industry and country specific. The perceived seriousness of some of the barriers was significantly different for non-exporters and exporters. A discriminant analysis suggested, however, that it was not possible to predict whether a firm will be an exporter or not based on their perceptions of export barriers. The implications of the findings for the management of Australian horticulture exports are discussed.     

A structural time series analysis of US broiler exports

A structural time series model is used to determine the dynamic characteristics, forecasting properties, and policy implications of factors affecting the US broiler export market. The emphasis is on international market responsiveness. The analysis indicates that in addition to the explanatory variables a trend component has been vital in the expansion of the broiler industry during the study period. The results indicate that export markets are more price responsive than the domestic markets, that interventions in the Canadian and Mexican markets reduce their imports, and exchange rate changes have significant impacts on US exports.     

金融危机对中国木质家具出口企业的影响

首先采用恒定市场份额模型对中国木质家具的出口增长源泉以及竞争力趋势进行了实证分析,指出木质家具产业的发展对外依存度较高,出口的增长动力除自身竞争优势外,显著地依靠国际市场需求。在此基础上,进一步分析了此次金融危机对中国木质家具出口企业造成的负面影响,最后对木质家具出口企业提出应对此次危机的对策建议。     

Domestic and trade impacts of foot‐and‐mouth disease on the Australian beef industry

Australia is the sixth largest producer of beef and the second largest exporter of beef. Average beef exports from Australia are approximately 65 per cent of the total amount of beef produced, about 1.3 million tonnes. Australia is particularly vulnerable to diseases that are not endemic to the country and could close or disrupt its export markets for beef. In this study, we construct a bioeconomic optimisation model of the Australian beef industry that captures production and consumption decisions, domestically and internationally, and the impacts on the beef industry of a potentially catastrophic disease, foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD). This study analyses localised to large‐scale outbreaks and suggests that changes in economic surplus because of FMD range from a positive net gain of $57 million to a net loss of $1.7 billion, with impacts on producers and consumers varying depending on the location of the outbreak, control levels and the nature of any trade ban.     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

Impacts of WTO restrictions on subsidized EU sugar exports

The study evaluates the impact of World Trade Organization (WTO) restrictions on the European Union (EU) sugar sector and the world sugar market. A small reduction in production quotas would be sufficient to satisfy the export subsidy limitations of the Uruguay Round agreement. Complete elimination of export subsidies by 2005 would require either a 10% reduction in production quotas or the combination of an 8% reduction in quotas and an 11% reduction in intervention prices. Higher world prices resulting from reduced EU exports would result in increased production of unsubsidized C‐sugar, with different impacts across EU member countries explained by differences in institutional pricing arrangements and marginal production costs.     

Residential housing bubbles in Hong Kong: identification and explanation based on GSADF test and dynamic probit model

We aim to investigate whether the current high housing price in Hong Kong contains a bubble and to identify the causes of such housing bubble if it exists by combining the generalised sup augmented Dickey–Fuller (GSADF) test and dynamic probit models. Empirical results indicate that the current Hong Kong housing market contains a bubble, and it’s the investors’ speculative demand and the increase of monetary supply that lead to the housing bubbles in Hong Kong. Moreover, speculative investors would prefer the mass markets to the luxury ones considering the outstanding performance of the former. Such preference would contribute to more bubbles in the mass markets than in the luxury ones. In view of these, Hong Kong Government should retrospect the linked exchange rate system and be alert to the impacts of the US monetary policies on Hong Kong residential market. To offset the housing bubble, a targeted and effective approach to the Hong Kong Government is to constrict the speculative demand from investors particularly in the mass markets.     

THE EROSION OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS IN AN OIL ECONOMY: THE CASE OF NIGERIA

After several years of oil production and exports with attendant revenue influx, the sector is yet to make a significant impact in Nigeria's economic growth. Contrary to the hopes and expectations that greeted the oil discovery, the non-oil export sector of the economy, more specifically the agricultural sector, has been declining consistently with further increases in oil exports. This paper is intended to provide an empirical analysis of an aspect of structural change that has taken place in the Nigerian economy. The hypothesis investigated is that an increase in oil exports results in higher relative prices on non-tradeable to tradeable goods and an appreciation of the domestic currency, hence a loss of the competitiveness of the agricultural export sector in the international market. This phenomenon, popularly known as the ‘Dutch disease’, has been vigorously discussed in the United Kingdom, Norway and the Netherlands, has also received much attention from Australian economists in relation to minerals.     

Canada's beef exports: Border effects and prospects for market access

This paper examines the magnitudes of border effects on Canada's beef exports, and assesses the prospects for market access. The empirical analysis relies on a gravity model derived from a supply-based framework, and implements different econometric methodologies. It covers the conventional measurement of border effects that is determined relative to the intranational trade baseline. Also, it sets alternative baselines to estimate the wedge between the border effects on beef exports of Canada and those of other countries. The estimated parameters are used to carry out different scenarios to examine the tariff-related and nontariff border effects, and to evaluate the impacts of trade preferences for Canada's bilateral beef exports. The results reveal significant trade impediments facing Canada's bilateral beef exports to many large markets (e.g., EU-15, Japan, Republic of Korea, China, and Russia), and they often indicate that the effects of tariff reductions become considerably larger when coupled with reductions in nontariff impediments. Also, they underscore the significance of North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA)’s preferential market access for Canada's beef exports. The export opportunities for the Canadian beef industry that are generated through lower trade barriers would, however, decrease when trade barriers facing other beef-exporting countries are reduced.     

中国罗非鱼出口贸易影响因素分析——基于引力模型的实证研究

中国罗非鱼产业一直依靠国际市场来带动其发展,过分依赖于主要贸易伙伴国（地区）。论文选取2002—2012年中国向15个贸易伙伴国（地区）罗非鱼出口量的面板数据,利用引力模型分析中国罗非鱼出口贸易的影响因素,为改善罗非鱼的出口现状、保障罗非鱼产业的持续稳定发展提供政策建议。研究结果表明：需求方的各项经济因素对罗非鱼出口的影响是较大的,罗非鱼国内生产成本的上升制约了罗非鱼的出口贸易,世贸组织和亚太经合组织对促进罗非鱼出口贸易有一定作用。     

A Price Analysis of U.S. Agricultural Exports in East Asian Markets

This paper examines the price competition between U.S. agricultural exports and that of its competitors in East Asia. The results show weak price competition in Japan's corn and soybean markets, and no price competition in the wheat market. U.S. cotton exports to Japan face strong price competition. In Hong Kong, U.S. market shares are low, while the demand for its rice, corn, soybeans and cotton is elastic. For South Korea and Taiwan, improved political relationships between China, South Korea, and Taiwan have caused the U.S. to lose market shares to China.     

中国苹果加工产业发展趋势分析

得益于资源优势和成本优势,中国苹果加工产业发展迅速,正由产能扩张向提质竞争过渡。综合产业发展和市场变化判断,加工产业发展的基本趋势是行业整合加快,产业布局向原料产地集中;受成本和出口价格快速增长、国际市场需求不足、贸易壁垒增强等因素影响,中国浓缩苹果汁出口约束增强。中国苹果加工产业应以转型升级为发展契机,通过行业整合、优化产业结构,建立、健全出口产品的质量标准体系和应对国际贸易壁垒的市场预警机制,积极开拓新兴市场。     

非洲猪瘟疫情对我国肉类价格影响的区域异质性研究

目的 非洲猪瘟疫情暴发导致猪肉等畜产品市场供需结构性、区域性失衡，进而导致肉类价格大幅波动，不利于畜牧业高质量可持续发展。方法 文章通过构建覆盖全国30个省（市、区，不含港澳台、西藏），包括猪牛羊和白条鸡四大肉类价格和非洲猪瘟疫情指数的动态面板数据，运用面板向量自回归模型（PVAR），研究非洲猪瘟疫情对猪肉等主要肉类价格的冲击和影响在重点、约束、适度发展区和潜力增长区2的区域异质性。结果 （1）非洲猪瘟疫情对不同区域不同肉类价格的影响存在着正负向不趋同的方向性差异，在冲击程度大小和时滞期上均存区域异质性；（2）区域间和区域内不同省份间猪肉等肉类生产流通和供需形势、及非洲猪瘟发生发展程度的差异是非洲猪瘟疫情对这些肉类价格冲击影响异质性产生的主要原因。结论 非洲猪瘟疫情对肉类价格影响存在较为明显的区域异质性，亟需进一步优化生猪等畜牧产业布局，加快形成区域协同发展格局；健全动物疫病防控体系，建立多方协同联动机制；完善市场风险预警调控机制，加快实现产需顺畅匹配，确保畜产品市场总体平稳运行和畜牧业健康可持续发展。     

The International Competitiveness of the Palestinian Agriculture

The purpose of this study is to identify and measure the impacts of factors which are expected to influence the competitiveness of the Palestinian agriculture by using the market share approach with an econometric model. Over the past three decades, Palestinian agriculture has been subjected to increased international and regional competition. The impact of this competition is in part evidenced by trend decline in the West Bank and Gaza Strip agricultural exports in one hand, and the increases in agricultural imports on the other. The empirical results indicate that the performances of domestic and import market shares could be increased through improving the productivities of the major production factors such as land, labor and capital. Applying this policy would enhance the competitiveness of Palestinian agriculture by increasing local production to replace farm imports from Israel. On the other land, future farm export competitiveness will be closely linked to improvements in production, marketing efficiency and removing non-tarrif trade barriers (NTBs) imposed by Jordan and Israel.     

The connection between fisheries resources and spatial land use change: The case of two New England fish ports

This study examined interactions between targeted fish populations, aspects of the fishing industry and land use changes along two ports in New England. By tracking changes in land uses over a two-decade period using parcel level data and geographic information system (GIS) tools, we examined the relationship of changes in species biomass, landings and other fishing industry variables to community spatial change. Using logistic regression models we assessed the impacts on essential infrastructure for continued fishing industry activity. Our findings have implications for land use policy that should accompany efforts being made to rehabilitate fish stocks; it should ensure that current marine infrastructure will remain in place to support the fishing industry if and when species rebound. Our models show that in New Bedford Harbor, the larger of the two ports, increasing scallop biomass (considered a long-term factor) is associated with the increase of marine-related land uses. In Provincetown Harbor, short-term factors, such as value and volume of fish landings as well as stock sizes, influence land use change. These findings suggest that the smaller port (Provincetown) is more vulnerable to market conditions and therefore in need of greater land use controls to prevent the conversion of marine-related uses. We propose some directions for further research and present the methodology used as one that can be applied to research questions of a similar nature.     

水产品出口促进山东渔业经济增长的机制分析

论文利用出口依存度、贡献率和拉动度等统计方法,测算出近十年来山东水产品出口依存度超过30％,对渔业经济增长贡献率超过100％,年均拉动度近5％,结论表明水产品出口对山东渔业经济增长起着正向的拉动作用。根据研究结论并结合山东省渔业经济和水产品出口现状,这种拉动机制具体表现为,在渔业经济生产部门存在闲置资源的基础上,水产品出口通过需求扩大、规模经济和技术进步三条途径来实现对渔业经济的拉动。     

Incidence of Russian log export tax: A vertical log-lumber model

In 2007, Russia imposed an ad valorem tax on its log exports that lasted until 2012. In this paper, we use a Muth-type equilibrium displacement model to investigate the market and welfare impacts of this tax, utilizing a vertical linkage between log and lumber markets and considering factor substitution. Our theoretical analysis indicates that, without considering the vertical linkage, the negative effects of log export tax on equilibrium price for log producers is underestimated when logs and processing services are gross substitutes, and the direction of bias is uncertain when they are gross complements. Empirical simulations show that the burden of Russian log export tax is shared almost equally between foreign log buyers and domestic log producers and that the tax increases domestic lumber production. Further, the marginal effect of the log export tax on domestic lumber production decreases as Russian domestic demand share of logs increases. Overall, the welfare gains for Russian lumber consumers, lumber producers in the form of quasi-rents to processing services, and tax revenue exceed the loss in its logging sector.     

Deregulation reforms,resource reallocation and aggregate productivity growth in the Australian dairy industry

Deregulation reforms in the Australian dairy industry had long‐lasting repercussions for Australian agriculture and the wider Australian economy. Using farm‐level data from 1979 to 2013, we investigate the effect of these reforms on productivity in the Australian dairy industry which arose from correcting resource misallocation between farms and across segregated state milk markets. Our results demonstrate that after the dairy reforms in 2000, relative market share shifted from less productive farms to more productive ones, and between farms using different production systems – generating additional productivity gains for the farm sector, but imposing some costs on downstream manufacturers by strengthening the seasonality of milk supply. Lessons from the Australian experience provide timely guidance for those countries exploring deregulation now or in the future to improve the industry‐level agricultural productivity growth through facilitating resource reallocation from less efficient to more efficient farms.