Parasitical cultures? The cultural origins of institutions and development

Do cultural attitudes affect institutions and economic performance? This paper suggests they do. To measure the impact of cultural attitudes we use prevalence rates of the common parasite Toxoplasma gondii which is known to affect individual attitudes and societal values in predictable ways. By using prevalence rates of Toxoplasma as instrument for cultural variation, we are able to isolate the effects of cultural attitudes on institutions, distinguishing them from effects of institutions and economic outcomes on culture. We find that our indicators of cultural attitudes are significant determinants of institutional quality, and strong predictors of long-run economic performance.     

Individualism and political instability

This paper examines the relationship between the individualism-collectivism dimension of culture and political instability using a dataset covering around 100 countries. To shed light on the causal effect of culture on political instability, the identification strategy exploits the variation in historical pathogen prevalence and the information provided by the genetic distance between countries. The results reveal that individualism has a negative and statistically significant impact on the degree of political instability, which means that this cultural trait contributes to making the political environment more stable. This finding is robust to the inclusion in the analysis of a substantial number of controls that may be correlated with both individualism and political instability, including other cultural dimensions. In fact, the relationship between individualism and political instability does not depend either on the specific measures used to quantify the level of individualism and political instability within the various countries or the estimation strategy adopted. The estimates also show that part of the observed effect of individualism is due to the impact of institutional quality, which acts as a transmission channel linking this cultural trait and political instability.     

Fractionalization

We provide new measures of ethnic, linguistic, and religious fractionalization for about 190 countries. These measures are more comprehensive than those previously used in the economics literature and we compare our new variables with those previously used. We also revisit the question of the effects of ethnic, linguistic, and religious heterogeneity on the quality of institutions and growth. We partly confirm and partly modify previous results. The patterns of cross-correlations between potential explanatory variables and their different degree of endogeneity makes it hard to make unqualified statements about competing explanations for economic growth and the quality of government. Our new data, which features the underlying group structure of ethnicities, religions and languages, also allows the computation of alternative measures of heterogeneity, and we turn to measures of polarization as an alternative to the commonly used index of fractionalization.     

On graduation from fiscal procyclicality

In the past, industrial countries have tended to pursue countercyclical or, at worst, acyclical fiscal policy. In sharp contrast, emerging and developing countries have followed procyclical fiscal policy, thus exacerbating the underlying business cycle. We show that, over the last decade, about a third of the developing world has been able to escape the procyclicality trap and actually become countercyclical. We then focus on the role played by the quality of institutions, which appears to be a key determinant of a country’s ability to graduate. We show that, even after controlling for the endogeneity of institutions and other determinants of fiscal procyclicality, there is a causal link running from stronger institutions to less procyclical or more countercyclical fiscal policy.     

Public spending and growth: The role of government accountability

This paper examines the role of institutions in the nexus between public spending and economic growth. Empirical results based on a newly assembled dataset of 80 countries over the 1970–2010 period suggest that particularly when institutions prompt governments to be accountable to the general citizen does public capital spending promote growth. Taking account of the type of financing for this spending, we show that the growth-promoting effect under an accountable government appears to prevail for various financing sources, including a reallocation from current spending, an increase in revenue, and a rise in the budget deficit. However, government accountability does not seem to play a key role in the growth effects of current spending.     

How Bad is Corruption? Cross‐country Evidence of the Impact of Corruption on Economic Prosperity

Most people today would argue that corruption is bad for countries' economic development. Yet, we still lack a reliable empirical estimate of the effect. This study addresses the econometric shortcomings of the literature and provides an estimate of the causal impact of corruption on gross domestic product per capita across countries. Certain dimensions of a country's culture are used as instruments for corruption. These instruments stay strong when the other deep determinants of economic development, geography, and the remaining dimensions of institutions and culture are controlled for. In the process of choosing controls, however, the entire set of variables available in the Quality of Governance online database (QOG) that includes all central variables from the literature on institutions and culture are included. It is found that corruption does exert a significant and negative impact on countries' productivity levels.     

Choosing a future based on the past: Institutions,behavior, and path dependence

Institutions do not always produce behavior consistent with what theory predicts, leading comparative scholars to turn to explanations based on historical or cultural exceptionalism. Context can influence not only how an institution performs but also the very choices of institutions that societies choose to govern themselves. In this paper, we construct a model that produces contextual effects that result in institutional path dependence. In doing so, we provide formal foundations for qualitative arguments that context matters and identify a contributing causal mechanism: behavioral spillovers. Using both mathematical and computational techniques, we show that spillovers provide a mechanistic explanation for how pre-existing institutions affect the performance of new institutions as well as the optimal choice among institutions. We find that these spillovers can depend on either the set or the path of previous institutions. Both results support qualitative arguments that historical institutional contexts influence outcomes in current institutions. Importantly, the spillovers depend not only on the outcomes produced in the institutions but also on the specific behavior that produces the outcomes. As a result, we show that institutions that create diverse ensembles of behaviors generate better outcomes and less path dependence than those that cause all agents to converge on the identical strategy.     

Culture and the regulation of entry

Does culture affect the manner in which a society regulates the entry of new firms? Our results suggest it does. We find more individualistic countries regulate entry more lightly. We investigate how culture matters presenting evidence of significant interactions between individualism and formal legal and political institutions. Individualism has a greater impact on entry regulation in societies with democratic political institutions or a common law tradition. This outcome is consistent with the idea that culture influences social preference for regulation, and political and legal institutions determine the degree to which those preferences are expressed as policy outcomes.     

Explaining the economic trajectories of civilizations: The systemic approach

A civilization constitutes a durable social system of complementary traits. Some of the complementarities of any given civilization are between elements of “material” life and ones commonly treated as integral to “culture.” Identifying the mechanisms responsible for a civilization's observed trajectory involves, therefore, causal relationships that cross the often-postulated “cultural–material” divide. Complementarities make it difficult to transplant institutions across civilizations on a piecemeal basis. They imply that reforms designed to jump-start an economy will fail unless they are comprehensive. Civilizational analysis can benefit, therefore, from attention to institutional complementarities, including ones involving both cultural and material variables.     

The deep roots of economic development in the U.S. states: an application of Putterman and Weil (2010)

The “Deep Roots” literature investigates the effects of ancient cultural variables on economic outcomes. We extend Putterman and Weil’s (Q J Econ 125(4):1627–1682, 2010) inquiry into the effects of State History and Agricultural History to the economic output in ethnically and racially diverse fifty U.S. States. The ethnic and racial differences across the populations of the fifty U.S. states vary considerably due to historical immigration and slave flows that, as a result, produced radically different State History and Agricultural History scores across the states. Results derived from Putterman and Weil’s methodology do not robustly predict per capita levels of economic output across U.S. States. We also investigate the institutions channel, and find that they impact some measures of institutions, but they do not impact the quality of economic institutions which may be essential for promoting economic growth and development.     

文化贸易存在进口引致出口吗*——基于中国文化产品出口二元边际分析

文化贸易发展对于提升一国“软实力”和打造“贸易强国”具有重要意义。在工业品贸易领域广泛存在“进口引致出口”机制是中国货物出口奇迹产生的重要原因,该机制在文化贸易领域是否同样存在对于中国文化贸易发展具有深远意义。本文基于中国文化贸易微观产品层面六位码数据,对文化出口指标进行了二元边际结构性特征分解,实证分析发现：第一,总体来看,文化产品进口对出口没有显著的促进作用,即进口引致出口机制在中国文化贸易中并不存在;第二,文化产品进口对文化产品出口二元边际并不存在显著的引致效应,文化产品进口对集约边际甚至还有一定的抑制效应;第三,上述结论在不同的二元边际指标和持续期分样本估计中均成立,尤其是二元边际水平较高的核心文化产品和具有较长贸易持续期的产品样本;第四,细分不同类别来看,目前仅在图书及其他印刷品比较标准化的文化产品贸易中,可能出现了一定程度的进口引致出口效应。总体而言,进口引致出口机制在文化贸易中未能有效地发挥作用可能是导致中国文化贸易发展相对迟缓的重要原因,未来如何更好地发挥文化进口对出口的促进效应将是强化中国文化贸易发展的关键。     

Does democracy affect taxation and government spending? Evidence from developing countries

Focusing on developing countries in three geographical areas (South-East Asia, Latin America and European Union), we explore the relation between political variables and tax revenue, public spending and their structure. We build a new dataset for the 1990–2005 period with fiscal, political and socio-economic variables. Since democracy is a complex and multidimensional concept, we measure it using two variables, the political strength of democratic institutions, and the protection of civil liberties. We perform three sets of estimates: (i) cross-country pooled OLS regressions with region fixed effects, (ii) country fixed effects regressions and (iii) region specific regressions with country fixed effects. While the first model delivers some significant correlations between political variables and tax items, when controlling for country fixed effects we find that tax revenue and tax composition are in general not significantly correlated with the strength of democratic institutions and the protection of civil liberties. The only exceptions are indirect, trade and property taxes. A similar result applies to public spending, with the exception of defense expenditure. Overall, our findings cast some doubt on the exact public policy channels through which political institutions affect economic development.     

Religious rules as a means of strengthening family ties: Theory and evidence from the Amish

Religious institutions impose many rules on their members. I argue that a central function of these rules in many religious communities is to promote altruistic and cooperative behavior within families. My argument contrasts with the dominant view in the literature that the primary economic function of religious rules is to promote altruism and cooperation between unrelated religious community members. I develop my argument using a novel dataset on the Amish. My theory can explain selection patterns into the Amish church, Amish cultural persistence, persistent inequality between the Amish and non-Amish people, and high Amish fertility rates.     

Same Same But Different: Dialects and Trade

Language is a strong and robust determinant of international trade patterns: Countries sharing a common language trade significantly more with each other than countries using different languages, holding other factors constant. In this article we present the first analysis of the effect of language on trade in an intra‐national context. Analyzing unique data for a single‐language country, Germany, we find that similarities in the local dialect have a significantly positive impact on regional trade. We interpret this finding as evidence for the trade‐promoting effect of culture, because linguistic similarities likely reflect cultural ties across regions, rather than lower costs of communication or similar institutions.     

GOS tree (Goal-Objective-Strategy tree) approach to strategic planning using a fuzzy-Delphi process: An application to the Indian Shrimp Industry

Setting long-term goals, specifying short-term objectives, and formulating strategies to achieve the objectives are the key elements in a strategic planning process. In this paper, we have used hierarchical relationships among these key elements to propose a Goal-Objective-Strategy (GOS) tree. We have proposed an algorithm to validate the structural relationship between two hierarchically adjacent elements of the GOS tree by getting their feasibility score rated in a five-point linguistic scale with the help of a Delphi questionnaire survey. The linguistic scores were then converted into fuzzy scores and consensus of Delphi experts' opinions on feasibility of various statements were derived mathematically using fuzzy aggregation algorithm. We have applied the GOS-tree-based approach as a tool for strategic planning for the Indian Shrimp Industry that has displayed a cyclic performance in the past and has shown signs of rejuvenation in recent times.     

Do natural resources help or hinder development? Resource abundance,dependence, and the role of institutions

The resource curse literature presents conflicting evidence on the relationship between natural resources and development. We evaluate the direct effect of resources on developmental outcomes vis-à-vis their indirect effect through the weakening of political institutions using a 3SLS instrumental variable setup that simultaneously estimates development outcomes and institutions. We find that resource abundance and resource dependence affect development outcomes through different channels. While resource abundance generally has a direct positive effect on developmental outcomes, resource dependence has a stronger negative indirect effect that operates through its negative impact on institutional quality. The results also depend on the type of development outcome considered, with more consistent positive direct effects found for physical capital measures and stronger negative indirect effects for human capital development. The use of a simultaneous framework and dual measures of resources reconciles seemingly contradictory findings in earlier work.     

Limits of the New Institutional Economics Approach to African Development

In the last two decades, there has been a marked shift in the research on Sub-Saharan Africa from standard neoclassical analysis to new institutional economics (NIE). The increasing emphasis on NIE is reflected in a wide range of works by international financial institutions and scholars. However, the NIE approach retains fundamental limitations due to its narrow interpretation of institutions, its over-reliance on analysis of transactions costs and property rights, and its ahistorical attachment to markets and private sector firms as major engines of development. Furthermore, NIE typically fails to look “inside institutions” to identify the complex cultural factors that shape the interests and behaviors of the members of institutions. This paper engages in a critique of NIE analysis of Sub-Saharan Africa’s economic development, and suggests the need for a nuanced analysis of property rights and culture, along with development programs to address inequality and poverty and to foster state-led development.     

Quality of judicial institutions,crimes, misdemeanors,and dishonesty

We investigate the extent to which quality of judicial institutions has an impact on individuals’ propensity for criminal and dishonest behavior and on their views regarding the acceptability of dishonesty and law-breaking. We use micro data on residents of 25 European countries and employ alternative measures of judicial quality as perceived by the residents of these countries. As an instrument for judicial quality we employ the procedures with which prosecutors and judges are appointed to their posts in each country. As alternative instruments, we employ an index of de jure institutional quality as well as its components, which provide similar results. The findings show that an increase in the perception of the quality of judicial institutions, such as an improvement in judicial independence or the impartiality of the courts, has a deterrent effect on dishonest and criminal acts. A higher perceived quality of the judicial system also makes individuals less likely to find acceptable a variety of dishonest and illicit behaviors, suggesting that institutions help shape the beliefs of the society. We obtain the same results when we analyze the sample of immigrants, whose cultural attributes should be (more) related to their countries of origin, rather than their countries of residence, and thus should be arguably uncorrelated with the factors that can impact the instrument. We show that people’s beliefs in the importance of the family, in the fairness of others, and the importance of being rich are not impacted by judicial quality, suggesting that judicial quality is not a blanket representation of underlying cultural norms and beliefs in the society.     

What can we learn from revisions to the Greenbook forecasts?

Although there have been many evaluations of the Federal Reserve’s Greenbook forecasts, we analyze them in a different dimension. We examine the revisions of these forecasts in the context of fixed event predictions to determine how new information is incorporated in the forecasting process. This analysis permits us to determine if there was an inefficient use of information in the sense that the forecast revision has predictive power for the forecast error. Research on forecast smoothing suggests that we might find a positive relationship between the forecast error and the forecast revision. Although we do find for some variables and horizons the Fed’s forecast errors are predictable from its forecast revisions, there is no evidence of forecast smoothing. Instead the revisions sometimes have a negative relationship with the forecast error, suggesting in these cases that the Fed may be over-responsive to new information.     

Life satisfaction and air quality in Europe

Concerns for environmental quality and its impact on people's welfare are fundamental arguments for the adoption of environmental legislation in most countries. In this paper, we analyze the relationship between air quality and subjective well-being in Europe. We use a unique dataset that merges three waves of the European Social Survey with a new dataset on environmental quality including SO₂ concentrations and climate in Europe at the regional level. We find a robust negative impact of SO₂ concentrations on self-reported life satisfaction.