“数字鸿沟”是否抑制了居民消费？——来自中国家庭金融调查的微观证据

本文基于2017年中国家庭金融调查数据，从微观视角考察了数字鸿沟对居民消费的影响效应。其结果表明，第一，数字鸿沟显著抑制了居民消费，该结论经过一系列内生性处理和稳健性检验后依然成立。第二，机制分析表明，数字鸿沟通过降低家庭可支配收入、强化信贷约束以及削弱社会网络等渠道抑制了居民消费，而民生性财政支出可以有效缓解数字鸿沟的负面影响。第三，异质性分析表明，数字鸿沟对居民消费的抑制作用在户主受教育水平、金融素养较低和年龄较大的家庭中更加突出。第四，进一步研究发现，数字鸿沟主要抑制了低消费群体的消费支出，并对享受型消费有更大的负面影响，不利于消费升级。     

数字普惠金融对社会就业的影响——基于企业性质和行业的异质性考察

基于宏观、中观和微观三种视角阐释了数字普惠金融影响社会就业的原理及机制,并采用2011-2019年的省级面板数据,实证探究了数字普惠金融发展对社会就业的影响.研究发现,数字普惠金融能显著促进社会就业.相较于国有单位及企业就业,数字普惠金融对中小微企业就业具有更强的促进作用;数字普惠金融能显著促进第三产业就业增加,但会抑制第一产业及部分第二产业的就业,表明数字普惠金融在优化社会就业结构上起着至关重要的作用.政府部门和金融机构应加大对新基建的投入以提升社会整体就业水平,拓展对中小微企业提供的金融服务以促进个体及私营就业,科学协调传统行业的数字化转型以缓解转型过程中的就业压力.     

试论当前形势下如何缓解就业压力

本文分析了国内比较严峻的就业形势，剖析了形成就业压力的种种原因，提出了一系列缓解就业压力的对策，对于研究和解决当前的就业和再就业问题具有一定的借鉴意义。     

实施积极政策 缓解就业压力——就业再就业的现状与对策

2003年是我国把就业再就业纳入国民经济和社会发展宏观调控目标的第一年。劳动保障部及有关部门和地方各级政府在8月份中央召开全国再就业工作座谈会后，进一步加大了工作力度，就业和再就业工作进展明显。2003年，全国实现城镇新增就业岗位859万个，全面完成800万的目标任务。全国共有1038万下岗失业人员领取了《再就业优惠证》．     

数字经济赋能劳动力高质量就业的影响研究——基于门槛效应的检验

选取2013—2020年省级面板数据,采用熵值法、K-Means聚类分析法对我国数字经济和高质量就业水平进行测度评价,通过面板模型、分维度回归、门槛效应模型,研究数字经济对劳动力高质量就业的影响。研究发现,数字经济和高质量就业水平二者均在时间趋势上呈增长趋势,空间特征上均表现为东部高、中西部低;数字经济有助于促进劳动力高质量就业;信息化发展、数字交易发展、数字金融普惠发展能显著促进劳动力高质量就业,互联网发展对高质量就业的影响不显著;数字经济对劳动力高质量就业的促进作用呈“边际效应”递增的非线性特征;不同地区的数字经济对高质量就业的影响差异显著。     

“稳就业”还是“毁就业”？ 数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响

在"数字中国"和"就业优先"战略背景下,数字经济释放就业效能被社会寄予诸多厚望,但其在理论文献上缺乏直接的经验证据。文章利用2017年中国流动人口动态监测调查数据和278个城市数据的匹配数据,采用腾讯研究院发布的"互联网+数字经济指数"对数字经济进行测度,考察了数字经济对农民工高质量就业的影响。研究发现,数字经济对农民工高质量就业具有显著的正向影响。为克服实证模型的内生性问题,文章选取历史数据作为工具变量,所得结果依然支持数字经济对农民工高质量就业的正向效应。基于广义倾向得分匹配法分析发现,数字经济尽管正向影响农民工高质量就业,但在影响效应上却呈现"先上升后下降"的"倒U型",当数字经济为中等发展水平时,农民工高质量就业的边际效应达到最佳。这意味着今后以数字经济为抓手推动农民工高质量就业需遵从"适度"原则,需谨防过度数字化带来的"就业无效"和"就业低效"问题。进一步异质性分析发现,数字经济对"新生代"、"高技能"、从事制造业、交通运输业和居民服务业的农民工就业质量促进作用更明显。本研究为目前国家倡导"大力发展数字经济,促进就业提质扩面"提供了实证支撑,结论对推动农民工高质量就业具有重要政策启示。     

工业机器人对制造业劳动力市场的影响：“升级”抑或“极化”?

在数字经济背景下，工业机器人给中国制造业转型升级带来了重大机遇，同时也给制造业劳动力市场带来诸多挑战。为了厘清工业机器人对制造业劳动力的影响，本文利用2004-2018年省级制造业工业机器人数据，匹配制造业行业层面数据，通过联列方程识别工业机器人使用对不同技能劳动力工资和就业的影响。研究表明，工业机器人的使用显著提高了制造业劳动力市场整体就业和工资水平，对制造业劳动力市场的生产力效应和就业创造效应强于替代效应；对不同技能劳动力的进一步分析表明，工业机器人显著提升了高、低技能工人的就业，却显著降低了中等技能劳动力的就业，表现为就业“极化”效应；而对不同技能劳动力的工资均具有正向影响，表现为明显的“升级”效应。本研究有助于客观认识数字经济背景下工业机器人对劳动力市场的冲击，为进一步理解制造业智能化升级和保持就业稳定的政策实践具有指导意义。     

北京市中低龄老年人再就业现状及影响因素研究

老年人就业或再就业问题是影响老年人生活以及老龄工作的重要方面。老年人的就业受多方面因素的影响和制约,因此,在制定有关老年人就业政策时我们应当对这些因素加以考虑。文章运用北京市16个区的抽样调查数据,对中低龄老年人再就业影响因素开展研究,首先通过交叉表描述老年人再就业的基本特征,然后采用多变量Logistic回归检验各个因素的显著性。通过Logistic回归检验,发现在影响中低龄老年人再就业的诸因素中,年龄、性别、健康状况和是否有养老金等自身因素对就业意愿的影响是显著的,子女数量、受教育水平等因素对再就业的影响不显著。     

关于做好促进就业工作的通知国发[2008]5号

近年来，各地区和有关部门认真贯彻落实党中央、国务院关于就业再就业的方针政策，取得显著成绩，体制转轨遗留的下岗失业人员再就业问题基本解决。当前及今后一个时期，我国劳动者充分就业的需求与劳动力总量过大、素质不相适应之间的矛盾依然存在，促进就业任务十分繁重。党的十七大提出坚持实施积极的就业政策，实现社会就业更加充分的奋斗目标。就业促进法对促进就业工作做出了法律规范。     

促进就业再就业的财税政策选择

就业是民生之本，是构建社会主义和谐社会的重要组成部分。促进就业再就业作为一种民心工程，需要实施各种有效的政策措施，使广大人民群众能够贫有所助、业有所就。财税政策作为社会经济宏观调控的重要手段，在促进就业再就业中具有其他各项政策措施所没有的综合效能。因此，在利用财税政策促进就业再就业时，首先要针对当前就业再就业工作中存在的突出问题，建立、健全促进就业再就业的相应财税政策体系，充分发挥财税政策对就业再就业的引导、规范、支持、激励等职能作用。     

The Labour Market Potential for Scientists, Engineers and Managers in Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire

This paper examines the issue of the potential employability of the highly-skilled post-retirement from employment in large firms and research institutions in small high-tech firms. The thesis of the study reported here, funded by the Milton Keynes, Oxfordshire and Buckinghamshire (MKOB) Learning and Skills Council (L & SC), is that reemployment might help address problems of skill shortages in the MKOB region, particularly in its increasing number of high-tech firms. Early retirement removes valuable skills from the labour market. The paper has a more general interest because it highlights the considerable challenges to policy makers faced with a diversity of employment profiles within regions.     

The Retirement Consumption in Korea: Evidence from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study

Abstract

This paper examines the retirement consumption in Korea using the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study. This paper reports a significant post-retirement consumption fall among elderly households. The empirical results of this paper suggest that a reduction in work-related expenses is an important factor to explain the observed post-retirement consumption fall. In addition, this paper finds that the post-retirement consumption growth rate varies depending on each household's pre-retirement wealth level. The findings of this paper provide empirical evidence on retirement consumption in an emerging market with no matured public pension programmes.     

How Likely are Employers to Rehire Older Workers After Mandatory Retirement? A Vignette Study Among Managers

With a vignette experiment among Dutch managers we examine employers’ considerations in the decision to rehire employees after mandatory retirement. We specifically focus on the effects of the employee’s downward wage flexibility (i.e., the willingness to accept a lower wage) and contract flexibility (i.e., preference for a contract which allows flexible hours or employment). The results show that employers are strongly affected by employees who offer to work for a significantly lower wage, but not by the employees’ preference for a particular labor contract. Employers are overall quite disinclined to rehire employees after mandatory retirement, although large differences exist between employees. Part of these differences can be explained by employers having higher retirement age norms (i.e., the maximum age at which employers consider employees suited for work in their organization).     

French Retirement Reforms and Intragenerational Equity in Retirement Duration

As most developed countries, France has gone over the last 20 years through a process of pension system reforms, mainly aiming at increasing the average retirement age, through increasing the required number of contribution years or through postponing legal (minimal and/or normal) ages. Public debates over which lever should be preferred have been paramount in France, with concerns focusing on redistribution issues between high wage high life-expectancy and low-wage low life-expectancy workers. In this paper, we empirically address this issue by simulating the differentiated impacts of the past French reforms on average retirement ages across wage quartiles. Our simulations show that increasing the required duration criterion—as was done by the 1993 and 2003 reforms–have redistributive impact as regards retirement age, while increasing the normal age—as was done by the 2010 reform—has a counter-distributive impact. The redistributive impact on average of the required duration criterion however only holds thanks to the fact that disabled workers—most of them in the lowest wage quartile—are exempted from it. Last, increasing minimal age has ambiguous impacts according to gender: redistributive among women but counter-distributive among men.     

Employment,Wages, and Alcohol Consumption in Russia

This article investigates the association between alcohol consumption and labor market outcomes in Russia, using data from the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS). It estimates cross-sectional and fixed effects models of the impacts of alcohol consumption on employment and wages for males and females using three different measures of drinking. The cross-sectional findings indicate that alcohol consumption has an inverse U-shaped impact on employment and wages for females. The impact on males appears to be positive but the inverse-U shape is less pronounced. Once the unobserved individual heterogeneity is accounted for using fixed effects, alcohol consumption is found to have no significant effect on employment for either males or females. The fixed effect wage models indicate that alcohol consumption has a small, positive, but linear impact on the wage rate for both males and females. Models including fixed effects generate estimates that are smaller in magnitude compared with those of cross-sectional models. The findings are robust to several diagnostic checks.     

延长退休年龄能提高社会养老保险基金的支付能力吗?

本文通过构建我国社会养老保险基金支付能力的精算模型,研究了延长退休年龄后,基金支付能力的变化情况。结果表明,延长退休年龄不一定能够增加养老保险基金的支付能力,因为延长退休年龄后,虽然缴费期限延长了,缴费收入增加了,但养老保险基金支出也增加了,最终结果就是不确定的,要受到很多因素的影响,包括利率、社会平均工资增长率、在职职工工资增长率、养老金增长率和死亡率分布等等。如果要通过延长退休年龄来提高养老保险基金的支付能力,应全面分析各种相关因素的共同作用,否则适得其反。     

The impact of retirement on household consumption in Japan

Using monthly data from the Japanese Family Income and Expenditure Survey, we examine the impact of retirement on household consumption. We find little evidence of an immediate change in consumption at retirement, on average, in Japan. However, we find a decrease in consumption at retirement for low income households that is concentrated in food and work-related consumption. The availability of substantial retirement bonuses to a large share of Japanese retirees may help smooth consumption at retirement. We find that those households that are more likely to receive such bonuses experience a short-run consumption increase at retirement. However, among households that are less likely to receive a retirement bonus, we find that consumption decreases at retirement.     

空气污染感知与退休后再就业意愿——来自CLDS2016的证据

具有再就业能力和意愿的退休群体是有待激活和妥善配置的潜在人力资源,对于实现积极老龄化、缓解社会养老负担均有重要意义,而对于空气污染的感知和担忧可能是阻止该群体重返劳动力市场的重要致因。基于CLDS2016调查数据,研究证实了空气污染感知对退休群体再就业意愿的抑制作用,而城市层面的空气质量降级现象佐证了这一结论。此外,具有较高物质资本和人力资本存量的退休群体的主客观空气污染偏离度较低,即更易低估环境污染现状并保持乐观。然而,互联网的使用将导致对空气污染现状的普遍高估,并使偏离程度加重。本研究着重探讨了空气污染在感知端对于劳动供给行为的重要影响,为洞悉阻碍退休群体再就业因素提供了来自环境质量方面的证据。