FOREIGN INVESTMENT AND THE ROLE OF JOINT VENTURES

Foreign investment in developing countries and in economies in transition may be discouraged by fluctuations in the value of local currencies, particularly when risk sharing markets, such as currency future markets are missing. International joint ventures can be regarded as an institution for risk sharing. We demonstrate that a properly designed joint venture between the foreign firm and a local partner makes foreign investment more likely. Furthermore, foreign investment may be increased by a joint venture.     

TRADE LIBERALIZATION AND WAGE PREMIUM IN ARGENTINA: THE ROLE OF TRADE FACTOR INTENSITY

During the 1990s, several Latin American countries implemented policies directed to the removal of barriers on international trade. However, there is a perception that reforms, especially trade liberalization, failed to deliver on their promises, easing the way for policies aimed at reversing some of them. Following Wood's hypothesis, we allow for the effects of liberalization to vary, depending on the skill intensity of production. The evidence confirms that the role of trade liberalization has been relatively small, but controlling for the presence of endogeneity gives larger estimates. Contrary to previous evidence, the wage premium of skilled workers was more sensitive to the increase of skill‐intensive exports than to that of unskilled‐intensive imports.     

COMMODITY PRICE SHOCKS AND THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY SINCE FEDERATION*

Australia has experienced frequent and large commodity export price shocks similar to commodity exporters in Asia, Africa, and Latin America, but this price volatility has had much more modest impact on economic performance. Why? This paper explores Australian terms of trade volatility since 1901. It identifies two major price shock episodes before the recent mining‐led boom and bust. It assesses their relative magnitude, their impact on de‐industrialisation and distribution during the booms, and the labour market and policy responses to the shocks. Australia has indeed responded differently to volatile commodity prices than have other commodity exporters.     

ESTIMATING EXCHANGE RATE AND BILATERAL TRADE BALANCE RELATIONSHIPS: THE EXPERIENCE OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICAN COUNTRIES

This paper examines the effects of exchange rate changes on the bilateral trade balance of ten African countries vis‐à‐vis the US using annual data over period 1977‐2002. Both the Johansen and panel cointegration tests find cointegration among the series. The country FMOLS results show that real exchange rate depreciation improves the trade balance in six of ten countries in contrast to Tanzania in which it worsens the trade balance, with no effect found in Ghana, Morocco and Senegal. Foreign real income improves the trade balance in two countries but worsens it in another three. Finally, domestic real income negatively affects the trade balance in four countries but improves it in another three. The three‐panel coefficients are correctly signed and significant at the 1% level.     

BORDER BARRIERS IN AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND THE IMPACT OF THEIR ELIMINATION: EVIDENCE FROM EAST ASIA

We investigate the impact of the elimination of import tariffs and nontariff policy barriers (NTPBs) on agricultural trade in a notional East Asian Free Trade Agreement using a Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP)-based computable general equilibrium model. The investigation is divided into two parts. We first measure the NTPBs by employing a widely used method derived from the literature on border effects. Then, by adding into the GTAP database our estimates on the NTPBs, which the original GTAP database by its nature does incorporate, we compute the impact of the entire elimination of policy barriers (the complete reduction of import tariffs and NTPBs) on GDP. The result shows that there are remarkable differences between the effect of abolition of import tariffs and that of entire elimination of all import barriers.     

A HISTORY OF THE PAN‐PACIFIC COAL TRADE FROM THE 1950S TO 2011: EXPLORING THE LONG‐TERM EFFECTS OF A BUYING CARTEL

Since the early 1960s, the Pan‐Pacific coal trade has underpinned East Asia's industrial development. While the genesis of this trade lay in investment decisions by United States‐based companies that pioneered exports from Australian and western Canadian mines, its development was largely shaped by the strategies of the Japanese steel mills who acted as a buying cartel. By the early 1980s, this cartel had engineered an oversupplied market characterised by constantly falling prices. By 2001, however, this strategy proved counterproductive, as exports of coking coal in particular were concentrated in the hands of an oligopoly of super‐efficient producers that drove up prices.     

THE SWEDISH WAGE–RENTAL RATIO AND ITS DETERMINANTS, 1877–1926

Trends in wage–rental ratios figure prominently in the recent literature on factor price convergence and globalisation in the late nineteenth century. Sweden has been described as a free-trade country whose wage–rental ratio exhibited a distinctive upward trend before World War I. This article presents a new land price series that indicates an increase in land rentals and an evolution of the wage–rental ratio more in line with other European protectionist countries. We explore the determinants of the Swedish wage–rental ratio and assess the relative importance of protectionism and changes in Swedish farming's product mix from crop to animal products.     

BUILDING AN EFFECTIVE TRADE PRACTICES COMMISSION: THE ROLE OF PROFESSOR ROBERT BAXT, AO

Bob Baxt, the third chairman of the Trade Practices Commission, served for a single three-year term from 1988 to 1991. He followed Bob McComas, who had deliberately adopted a non-litigious approach to preserving the competitive process. Baxt was far more proactive and sought to push the frontiers of investigation and precedent, and perhaps, more significantly, to influence opinion about the need to expand the coverage of the Trade Practices Act. This article examines Baxt's role in teaching his interdisciplinary Trade Practices Workshops, the political context of his tenure, and his handling of the Queensland Wire case.     

DETERMINANTS OF SECTORAL COMPOSITION IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY: THEORETICAL AND QUANTITATIVE INVESTIGATIONS OF THE PHILIPPINES

The Philippine economy since the 1980s has undergone shifts of production, employment, and consumption in the direction of the greater share of nontradable sectors, despite relatively stagnant economic growth. This paper examines sources of the sectoral shifts theoretically and quantitatively based on a dynamic model of a small open economy. The theoretical analysis identifies possible factors affecting the evolution of the sectoral composition: changes in sectoral total factor productivity (TFP), the tariff rate, and the terms of trade. Then, the relative importance of these factors is examined quantitatively by conducting simulations of the model calibrated to the Philippine economy.     

RAINFALL, THE MÉLINE TARIFF, AND WHEAT PRODUCTION IN MEDITERRANEAN FRANCE, 1885–1914

Wheat production stagnated in France during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century, while cultivated acreage and wheat output declined sharply around the Mediterranean from the 1870s. Wheat output never recovered in this region despite the introduction in 1885 of tariff measures, such as the 1892 Méline Tariff. This paper analyses the response of Mediterranean wheat growers to changes in local rainfall and to variations of the duty on imported grains. It uses regional level data for nine administrative divisions located on or near the Mediterranean and assesses the impact of rainfall on yields. It argues that an interplay of protectionist policies and environmental conditions explain the decline of wheat production.     

NEW ESTIMATES OF AUSTRALIAN PUBLIC BORROWING AND CAPITAL RAISED IN LONDON, 1849–1914

Current statistics of Australian public borrowing to 1914 suffer from several limits. On the basis of a comprehensive revision, an upward bias is shown in all the alternative time series of London borrowing, while statistics of local bond issues are derived for the first time. The new time series show the importance of the initial borrowing cycle during the 1850s and 1860s; the scale of debt repatriation from the mid-1890s; the interaction between domestic and overseas borrowing before the 1880s; and the potential significance of remittance as an 'invisible stabiliser' of the exchanges and alternative indirect source of capital imports.     

EXPLORING THE SPECTRUM OF EXPORT DESTINATION: THE GEOGRAPHIC SPREAD OF KOREAN EXPORTS,ITS DETERMINANTS,AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS

Recent research in international trade has explored the stylized facts and causes and effects of export diversification. A simple model in this paper drawing on the work of Melitz suggests that there is an order in which a country spreads its goods to foreign countries. We estimate the order by using a methodology which takes account of the fact that most goods are not exported to several countries in our sample (unbalanced panel). We find that Korea exports its new goods first to the United States, followed by Japan, Hong Kong, and Singapore, and most recently to Bosnia-Herzegovina. Finally we find that the countries that Korea has exported to first are those with large GDP, low tariff rates, geographic proximity, language familiarity, in-country Korean export promotion offices, and high-quality institutions.     

NATURE, MARKETS AND STATE RESPONSE: THE DROUGHT OF 1939 IN JAPAN AND KOREA

Large areas of Northeast Asia experienced drought in 1939. Agricultural production in Korea decreased significantly, but the drought did not cause famine in Japan despite its dependence on rice imports from Korea. The paper analyses the impact of the 1939 drought on the markets for rice and electricity in Japan. The authorities were ill-prepared for such a disaster but willing to use it for the purpose of covering for other problems. The drought thus accelerated the move of Japan's economic system towards a managed economy. A lower total rainfall in Japan in 1940 did not generate similar problems, suggesting that the broader political, economic, and social context is crucial to the identification of short-term climatic fluctuations as crises.     

COMMENTS ON FACTOR PRICES AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN LESS INDUSTRIALISED ECONOMIES, 1870–1939: REFOCUSING ON THE FRONTIER

A great deal of the current research into nineteenth- and twentieth-century globalisation has been focused through a neoclassical trade theory lens. Applying the Stopler-Samuelson paradigm from Heckscher-Ohlin trade theory, the result is an approach that sees price convergence as pivotal in defining, identifying, and measuring globalisation. This focus, however, obscures the implications of frontier incorporation and other insights achieved by viewing nineteenth-century globalisation as a mechanism whereby peripheral economies were incorporated into the core of organised economic activity. A frontier-centred perspective also reintroduces the role of economic institutions as a crucial element of economic growth and development.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT: INSTITUTIONS, OPENNESS AND FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION

This paper provides new evidence that sheds light on the influence of institutional quality, trade openness and financial liberalisation on financial market development, using data from 27 economies (the G-7, Europe, East Asia and Latin America) during 1980-2001. The dynamic panel data analysis results demonstrate that real income per capita and institutional quality are statistically significant determinants of banking sector development and capital market development. The trade openness, however, is more prominent in promoting capital market development. In terms of financial liberalisation, the empirical results suggest that domestic financial sector reforms tend to promote banking sector development, whereas stock market liberalisation is potent in delivering stock market development. Nevertheless, the financial liberalisation programmes are more responsive in developed economies.