THE ANALYSIS OF NET FARM INCOME: AN EXAMINATION OF FARM MANAGEMENT SURVEY DATA

The practical significance of the conventional “net farm income” is elusive. It would be useful to have an accepted method of dividing “management and investment income” into its recognised Components—managerial salary and return on tenant's capital. One is a residual if the other can be calculated, and both alternatives are considered. An empirical formula is suggested for estimating the managerial salary which may be imputed to the farmer, taking account of his total turnover, his labour bill and his net farm income. This formula is then applied to Farm Management Survey data, for individual farms and for groups of average, high and low performance (output per £ input). The method may permit closer analysis of relative profitability.     

COHORT ANALYSIS OF THE DAIRY FARM WORK FORCE

This paper traces variations in the dairy farm work force in Victoria, New South Wales, and Queensland. Although the substantial differences between States in income levels are reflected in differing rates of reduction in the work force, these differences are not also reflected by appreciable differences in mean age and age structure. The cohort analysis explains this observation.     

A CROSS-SECTION ANALYSIS OF FARM HOUSEHOLD EXPENDITURES*

Many policy problems urgently require research on rural household consumption patterns. Research implications of consumption function theory are outlined and results of a cross-section analysis of eleven expenditure categories are reported. Consumption function parameters are estimated by least squares of multiple regression of farm account data. The analysis illustrates that changes in annuitized value of assets are associated with changes in budget allocations supporting the concept of a “lifetime” income effect on consumer behaviour. Second, the farm households sampled have a low marginal as well as average propensity to consume. Third, structure explanatory variables such as age distribution and size vary in their ability to explain expenditure patterns depending upon types of commodity. Further work will help to assess the impact of additional forces upon the standard of living of farm people. UNEANAL YSE RECOUPEE DE LA CONSOMMATION DOMESTIQUE R URALE Plusieurs problèmes de politique demandent des recherches urgentes sur les tendances de la consommation domestique rurale. Les implications de la recherche sur la théorie de la fonction de la consommation sont exposées et les résultats ?une analyse recoupee des onze catégories de dépenses sont présentés. Les paramétres de la fonction de la consommation sont évalués par les moindres carrés de la régression multiple des données du compte agricole. ?analyse démontre que les changements dans la valeur viagère des biens sont associés aux change-ments dans les allocations budgétaires à?appui du concept de ?effet ?un revenu “à vie” sur la façon ?agir du consommateur. Deuxièmement, les foyers agricoles échantillonnés ont une tendance à la consommation très marginale aussi bien que moyenne. Troisièmement, les variables explicatifs de la structure, tels que la répartition par âge et la taille, valient dans leur abilité?expliquer les tendances des dépenses selon le genre de denrées. Des travaux additionnels aideront àévahier ?effet de forces supplémentaires sur le niveau de vie des agriculteurs.     

AN ANALYSIS OF PEASANT FARM PRODUCTION UNDER CONDITIONS OF UNCERTAINTY*

In this paper the impact of cotton on a traditional food crop system in a semi-arid area of Kenya is analysed using a linear programming model and sensitivity analysis. Alternative criteria, maximax, maximin, and a standard average return maximand, are used in turn. The solutions are all evaluated as ‘best year’, ‘worst year’, and average values. This gives a range of results that cakes account of the uncertainty in the farming situation. Several policy conclusions follow from the analysis. It is argued that the approach used is more realistic than an approach in which a single maximand is used, and that the simplicity of the approach brings it within reach of many involved in farm production analysis.     

COMPARATIVE BIAS BETWEEN SAMPLING FRAMES FOR FARM SURVEYS

This paper proposes a methodology for quantifying the relative bias inherent in various farm sampling frames. It can be applied to any area or region for which a significant sample of farms is required. A random survey examined the relative representativeness of selected farm characteristics by National Farmers' Union of Scotland (NFUS) and Scottish Landowners' Federation (SLF) membership lists, the British Telecom Yellow Pages farm business listings, and the Scottish Office Agriculture and Fisheries Department June census returns on farm holdings. It is suggested that a methodology to assess comparative bias should be employed prior to any extensive work requiring the use of a sampling frame for farm holdings or businesses, to ensure that the most appropriate framework is chosen and a greater understanding of research findings achieved.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF AGRICULTURAL TRACTOR INVESTMENT MODELS

An implicit rental price approach is used to analyse the determinants of farm tractor investment at the aggregate level. Three models, based on different assumed factor substitutabilities, are compared. Variations in the rental price of tractors appear to have less effect on demand than variations in factors affecting the profitability of the cropping enterprise as a whole. The implications for forecasting and for policy instruments, such as the investment allowance, are discussed.     

ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF FARM POVERTY

The results of the Henderson Poverty Inquiry's 1973 farm household income survey are discussed and supplemented by income distributions based on taxation returns from 1968/69 to 1972/73. It is concluded that much low income 'poverty' is temporary, being the product of the instability of agriculture. A case is made for the inclusion of wealth in farm and non-farm welfare comparisons. Proposals aimed at directly increasing incomes are discussed and hypothetical income distributions are presented to indicate the impact of the Henderson Inquiry's guaranteed income scheme on farm income distributions.     

FARM INCOME POLICY IN ONTARIO: REVIEW AND ANALYSIS

This paper discusses and evaluates "The Challenge of Abundance" [l]. The recommendations of the Ontario Farm Income Committee are reviewed, the assumptions implicit in the recommendations are presented and the shortcomings of the Report discussed. The author, while finding a number of sound recommendations, ques the extreme emphasis on government intervention and control; the lack of research documentation; the failure to adequately comprehend the dependence of Ontario farmers on inputs from and sales to the rest of Canada and foreign countries; and the absence of a program to assist the majority of farmers who would no longer be allowed to produce food.
LE REVENU AGRICOLE EN ONTARIO: REVISION ET CRITIQUE — Cet article discute et évalue "The Challenge of Abundance" [l]. Les recommandations de la commission ontarienne sur le revenu agricole sont examinées, les assumptions dans les recommandations sont présentées, et les imperfections du rapport sont discutées, Tout en constatant plusieurs recommandations sérieuses, l'auteur interroge l'appuie intense donné à l'intervention et l'autorité govememental; le manque de documentation; l'incompréhension vis à vis la dépendance du fermier ontarien dans la vente au reste du Canada et à l'étranger; et l'absence d'un programme qui assisterait la majorité des fermiers qui ne sont plus permis de produire les aliments.     

SHORT-AND LONG-RUN FARM PLANNING UNDER UNCERTAINTY; INTEGRATION OF LINEAR PROGRAMMING AND DECISION TREE ANALYSIS

The paper presents an approach to an integrated long-run and short-run farm planning under uncertainty, based on a decomposition of the problem into (i) a series of short-run plans, and (ii) a master long-run plan. The series of the short-run plans are parametrically solved by linear programming "variable right hand" techniques and are later integrated into a long-run program using a (computerized) decision tree analysis. The attitude towards risk of the farm operator is expressed in the willingness to maximize the expected value of the income stream over the planning horizon subject to the restriction that alternatives which may lead to lack of liquidity must be eliminated.
Ce travail présenle une approche tentative ďintégrer, sous conditions incertaines, une planification de ferme à court et long terme. La planification est basée sur la partition du problème en (i) série de courte durée et (ii) de tongue durée. Les séries de courte durée sont résolues àľaide dun programme linéaire, et intégreés ensuite dans un programme à long terme àľaide de ľanalyse de "décision arbre."ľattitude envers les risques de ľentrepreneur est exprimée par la volonté-de maxiliser la valeur de revenu prévu au delá de la planification sous resérve de la restriction que des alternatives qui peuvent conduire à un manque de moyens liquides, doivent être éliminees.     

PARTICIPATION OF FARM OWNERS IN FARM AND OFF-FARM WORK INCLUDING THE OPTION OF FULL-TIME OFF-FARM WORK

The option of working full-time off the farm is generally neglected in farmers' time allocation studies. In this paper, a generalised multinomial logit model, in which the choices are working only on the farm, allocating the time between farm and off-farm work, or working only off-farm, is estimated using Israeli data. The results show that the explanatory variables have significantly different effects on utility for off-farm workers who also work on the farm versus those who do not. There seem to be incentives to work full time rather than part time off the farm. These conclusions cannot be reached if farm owners who do not work on the farm are excluded from the estimation. The conclusions imply that policy intended to encourage pluriactivity could instead result in increased specialisation in full-time farm work or full-time off-farm work if it does not target the right incentives.     

INTERPERSONAL VARIATION IN FARM WORKERS‘ EARNINGS: ANALYSIS OF WAGES AND EMPLOYMENT ENQUIRY DATA

Most econometric analyses of the agricultural labour market in Britain have been concerned with explaining the general level of agricultural earnings and changes over time. This study complements such analyses by attempting to explain the variation in earnings between workers at any one time. The study uses multiple-regression analysis of cross-sectional data taken from the Wages and Employment Enquiry. Significant explanatory variables are age, grade and occupation of the worker, farm size, overtime hours and region. There is evidence of (a) an age-earnings profile with peak earnings at 45–54 years, (b) grade differentials which do not follow those expected from the official Agricultural Wages Board wages structure, (c) occupational differentials, (d) earnings rising with farm size, (e) the importance of overtime hours. Unexpected results occur with some of the regional coefficients.     

THE HIGH COST OF FARM WELFARE

No abstract available for this article.     

THE ECONOMIC POLITY OF FARM POLICY

A review of the ‘new political economy’ of agricultural policies includes models of social income maximising governments, collective action by ‘pressure groups’, and the interaction between politicians and voters. An alternative explanation for Olson's “social by-product” theory for why farmers received massive subsidies as a large group is also presented. An explanation for various patterns of farm policy interventions is given, including why rich countries subsidise and poor countries tax farmers. Finally, the role of public research expenditures and the interaction with commodity policy is explored.