The Impact of Insurance Prices on Decision Making Biases: An Experimental Analysis

This article tests whether the use of endogenous risk categorization by insurers enables consumers to make better‐informed decisions even if they do not choose to purchase insurance. We do so by adding a simple insurance market to an experimental test of optimal (Bayesian) updating. In some sessions, no insurance is offered. In others, actuarially fair insurance prices are posted, and a subset of subjects is allowed to purchase this insurance. We find significant differences in the decision rules used depending on whether one observes insurance prices. Although the majority of choices correspond to Bayesian updating, the incidence of optimal decisions is higher in sessions with an insurance option. Most subjects given the option to purchase actuarially fair insurance choose to do so. However, fewer subjects purchase insurance when the probability of a loss is higher.     

社会互动与健康保险购买意愿关系研究

本文系统检验了社会互动对受访者购买健康保险意愿的影响。结果表明:网络互动和传统互动均显著提高消费者为自己购买健康保险的意愿,而且网络互动的影响力更大;网络互动对为父母健康保险的购买意愿没有解释力,传统互动则显著提高了消费者为父母购买健康保险的意愿。本文在检验影响健康保险购买意愿的传统因素之外,重点关注社会互动的影响,为分析个体的保险决策提供新的视角。     

The corporate purchase of property insurance: Chinese evidence

Using a panel data set (1997–1999) for 235 publicly listed companies in the People's Republic of China (PRC), this study tests empirically whether the purchase of property insurance mitigates principal-agent (agency) incentive conflicts. In contrast to prior studies, we first estimate a probit insurance participation decision model and then a fixed-effects insurance volume decision model (with Heckman's sample selection correction) in order to shed light on the determinants of both property insurance participation and volume decisions. Our results suggest that a major motivation for the corporate purchase of insurance in China appears to be the mitigation of agency conflicts. Additionally, various ownerships seem to have different impacts on the corporate purchase of insurance in China. Moreover, the results show that the same factor can have different impacts on the insurance participation and volume decisions, and that binding financial conditions may be a key factor accounting for such observed differences.     

Household Life Cycle Protection: Life Insurance Holdings, Financial Vulnerability, and Portfolio Implications

Using the Survey of Consumer Finances, we examine the life cycle demand for different types of life insurance. Specifically, we test for the consumer's aversion to income volatility resulting from the death of a household's wage‐earner through the purchase of life insurance. We first develop a financial vulnerability index to control for the risk to the household. We then examine the life cycle demand for life insurance using several definitions of life insurance. We find, in contrast to previous research, that there is a relationship between financial vulnerability and the amount of term life or total life insurance purchased. In addition, we find older consumers use less life insurance to protect a certain level of financial vulnerability than younger consumers. Secondly, our study provides evidence that life insurance demand is jointly determined as part of a household's portfolio. Finally, we consider the impact of family members' nonmonetary contribution on the household's life cycle protection decision. Our results provide some evidence that households take into account the value of nonmonetary contribution in their insurance purchase.     

Overcoming Barriers to Life Insurance Coverage: A Behavioral Approach

While life insurance purchase decisions have long been studied, we still do not know how people decide if they need insurance or how much they need. Using in‐depth interviews, we peer into the black box of employee decision making to learn what people know about this employee benefit, and how they decide if it is of value for them. We find that individuals understand the need for life insurance, but find many behavioral economic barriers to getting adequate coverage, including mental accounting, money illusion, and a strong role of defaults. We then conduct an online experiment of the hypothetical employee‐benefit purchase scenario, and find a few, simple interventions could help individuals better decide their life insurance needs.     

Corporate Risks and Property Insurance: Evidence From the People's Republic of China

Using panel data (1997–1999) for 235 publicly listed companies in the People's Republic of China, this study empirically tests the linkage between corporate risks and the decision to purchase property insurance and its financial extent. To achieve these objectives, we first estimate a probit insurance participation decision model and then a fixed‐effects insurance volume decision model with Heckman's sample selection correction. Our results indicate that the managerial decision to purchase property insurance is positively related to company size and insolvency risks. By contrast, the amount of property insurance purchased is positively related to systematic risks but negatively related to insolvency and unsystematic risks and company size. We find that the amount of property insurance used by Chinese companies can also be affected by other factors (e.g., the cash flow constraints). In addition, the decision to purchase property insurance and the financial extent to which it is used varies among Chinese companies according to their geographical location. However, state ownership does not appear to be an important determinant of the purchase of property insurance by Chinese publicly listed companies.     

Wealth, Income, and Optimal Insurance

This article considers the decision to purchase insurance against possible losses of a property or wealth. The decision involves a standard economic trade‐off between the benefit of protection against loss and the cost of insurance premium. The premium is paid out of the income and decreases the consumption of other goods and services, rather than out of wealth and decreases the property or wealth. The demand for insurance depends mainly on the income and preferences. As a result, unlike in the standard model, a fair premium is neither necessary nor sufficient for the optimality of full coverage insurance. Rather, the individuals with higher incomes purchase full coverage insurance even at unfair prices of insurance while the individuals with lower income purchase partial coverage insurance at a fair price.     

Bounded rationality in credit consumers’ payment protection insurance decisions: the effect of relative cost and level of cover

A previous study found that credit consumers’ decisions to purchase payment protection insurance (PPI) were surprising insensitive to changes in cost and level of cover. This was investigated further in a randomized-groups experiment in which these two factors and the cost of credit alternatives without PPI were systematically manipulated. High street bank customers (N?=?215) were presented with realistic PPI purchase scenarios and a questionnaire assessing their willingness to pay (WTP) for PPI and perceptions of its usefulness. It was found that: (1) WTP and PPI decisions were insensitive to relatively large changes in level of cover; (2) the perceived usefulness of Premium and Basic levels of cover were not significantly different, although their usefulness was a significant predictor of PPI decisions and (3) sensitivity of PPI decisions to changes in cost was dependent on the cost of credit without PPI. The first two findings are explained in terms of simplified mental representations and the evaluability of insurance cover. It is concluded that further research on the effects of the relative cost of insurance is needed.     

Regret in health insurance post‐purchase behavior

Unlike other forms of insurance, individuals with health insurance generally expect to make claims through the policy period. Selecting an appropriate level of cost‐sharing is difficult and individuals may, ex‐post, regret the choice of a less‐than‐suitable coverage amount. Using a national health insurance survey of private market consumers from 2013 to 2017, we evaluate the potential for post‐purchase regret in the health plan purchasing decision. We employ an ordered logistic model and find that consumers whose plan choices were likely financially dominated by a foregone alternative are significantly more likely to express regret through reporting significantly lower likelihood of renewal, even when controlling for confounding considerations including affordability, self‐assessed risk, and satisfaction with the plan.     

农户购买小额保险意愿影响因素研究——来自广东两个县的证据

本文利用两个县597户农户样本数据,采用Logistic模型分析了影响农户购买小额保险意愿的主要因素。研究结果表明,农户购买小额意外伤害保险和小额健康保险的意愿总体上非常强烈,购买小额财产保险的意愿不够强烈,农户的受教育程度、收入水平和储蓄状况对于所有小额保险的购买意愿具有显著的影响,而年龄、就业状态、风险和保险知识认知因素等只对部分小额保险,甚至是部分农户群体才具有显著的影响。     

Predictive Modeling in Long-Term Care Insurance

The accurate prediction of long-term care insurance (LTCI) mortality, lapse, and claim rates is essential when making informed pricing and risk management decisions. Unfortunately, academic literature on the subject is sparse and industry practice is limited by software and time constraints. In this article, we review current LTCI industry modeling methodology, which is typically Poisson regression with covariate banding/modification and stepwise variable selection. We test the claim that covariate banding improves predictive accuracy, examine the potential downfalls of stepwise selection, and contend that the assumptions required for Poisson regression are not appropriate for LTCI data. We propose several alternative models specifically tailored toward count responses with an excess of zeros and overdispersion. Using data from a large LTCI provider, we evaluate the predictive capacity of random forests and generalized linear and additive models with zero-inflated Poisson, negative binomial, and Tweedie errors. These alternatives are compared to previously developed Poisson regression models.

Our study confirms that variable modification is unnecessary at best and automatic stepwise model selection is dangerous. After demonstrating severe overprediction of LTCI mortality and lapse rates under the Poisson assumption, we show that a Tweedie GLM enables much more accurate predictions. Our Tweedie regression models improve average predictive accuracy (measured by several prediction error statistics) over Poisson regression models by as much as four times for mortality rates and 17 times for lapse rates.     

Life Insurance Lapse Behavior

Life insurance policy lapses are detrimental to issuing insurers when lapses substantially deviate from insurer expectations. The extant literature has proposed and tested, using macroeconomic data, several hypotheses regarding lapse determinants. While macroeconomic data are useful in providing a general test of lapse determinants, the use of aggregate data precludes an analysis of microeconomic factors that may drive the lapse decision. We develop and test a microeconomic model of voluntary life insurance lapse behavior and provide some of the first evidence regarding household factors related to life insurance lapses. Our findings support and extend the prior evidence regarding lapse determinants. Consistent with the emergency fund hypothesis we find that voluntary lapses are related to large income shocks, and consistent with the policy replacement hypothesis we find that the decision to lapse a life insurance policy is directly related to the purchase of a different life insurance policy. We also find that age is an important moderating factor in the lapse decision. Changes in income appear to more directly affect the decision to lapse for younger households, while they are generally unrelated to the lapse decision for older households.     

Pflegereform 2010: Karenzzeiten in der Sozialen Pflegeversicherung

As current research as well as current data reveal, the German long-term care insurance (LTCI) is expected to run a deficit in 2012. Additionally, further expenses will result due to the newly conceptualized definition of long-term care needs—in future, five instead of three care levels are to meet the needs of LTC patients. Accounting for the demographic turbulence ahead, the German LTCI is in urgent need of a broad reform. The paper suggests a reasonable transition from the current pay-as-you-go system to a partly funded strategy thereby accounting for the burden each generation is confronted with. With the help of generational accounting, we demonstrate that a certain waiting period (Karenzzeit) until LTC benefits are granted achieves an intergenerational balance. This reform proposal stems from the analysis of the length of stay in LTC.     

An Analysis of the Demand for Earthquake Insurance

This research examines the decision to purchase earthquake insurance by analyzing data on earthquake insurance price and penetration in the New Madrid fault zone in Missouri. Earthquake risk is of concern to consumers, the insurance industry, industry regulators, and government agencies because of the potentially catastrophic nature of losses resulting from a major earthquake. Despite the significance of the earthquake peril, the recent literature does not contain estimates of the price and income elasticity of the demand for earthquake insurance. Our analysis indicates that homeowners acquire earthquake insurance because of risk considerations, at higher levels of risk the demand for earthquake insurance is higher, and the price of earthquake coverage does not provide incremental information in explaining the demand for earthquake coverage.     

The strategic use of corporate insurance in China

We use the agency theory to conduct a novel test of the strategic use of property insurance in China's corporate sector. With regard to our main test hypotheses, we find that the incidence of property insurance purchased is directly related to the degree of product–market competitiveness, and positively related to market liquidity and firms’ growth opportunities. However, the homogeneity of market operations is not statistically significant. In our second-stage Cragg regression, market liquidity becomes insignificant while firms’ growth opportunities are now inversely related to the amount of insurance purchased. Additionally, the homogeneity of market operations becomes significantly related to the corporate purchase of property insurance. Therefore, different factors (e.g. cost considerations) may influence the decisions to purchase property insurance and subsequently, the level of coverage provided. We argue that our results are relevant for companies in other emerging markets such as Eastern Europe and companies operating in more developed Western economies such as the European Union (EU).     

Housing, Health, and Annuities

Annuities, long-term care insurance (LTCI), and reverse mortgages appear to offer important consumption smoothing benefits to the elderly, yet private markets for these products are small. A prominent idea is to combine LTCI and annuities to alleviate both supply (selection) and demand (liquidity) problems in these markets. This article shows that if consumers typically liquidate home equity only in the event of illness or very old age, then LTCI and annuities become less attractive and may become substitutes rather than complements. The reason is that the marginal utility of wealth drops when an otherwise illiquid home is sold, an event correlated with the payouts of both annuities and LTCI. Simulations confirm that demand for LTCI and annuities is highly sensitive to the liquidity and magnitude of home equity.     

The Value of Personal Contact in Marketing Insurance: Client Judgments of Representativeness and Mental Availability

Much previous research in decision analyses has focused on the processes of simplification that the decision maker applies in order to obtain a reduced set of alternatives. In the present work, we show how the principles of judgment by representativeness and mental availability can be applied to insurance decisions. We extend this view by considering interaction between these two heuristics and by analyzing the effect of the longer time horizon typical for insurance problems. The results of such simplification are shown to be inherently unstable. Nevertheless, it is possible to explain on the basis of our analysis why certain marketing practices dominate insurance markets.     

Early Mover Advantages: Evidence From the Long‐Term Care Insurance Market

Researchers frequently question whether financial firms benefit by developing new products because barriers to entry common to other industries generally do not exist. Studies of early mover advantages for new financial products provide mixed evidence at best. We find evidence of early mover advantages in the relatively young market for long‐term care insurance (LTCI) using data that allow broad testing of financial performance. Product differentiation, individual lines exposure, firm size, and traditional health insurance experience also affect financial performance.     

Chief Executive Officer Incentives,Monitoring, and Corporate Risk Management: Evidence From Insurance Use

Corporate governance and risk management issues have received prominent publicity in recent years following several major company failures such as Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers. While prior studies have examined this issue within the context of derivatives’ trading, little is known regarding the linkage between corporate governance and alternative corporate risk management activities such as insurance. Using a detailed firm survey conducted by the World Bank (2004) , we examine the impacts of various governance monitoring mechanisms and chief executive officer (CEO) characteristics on the corporate insurance decision. Overall, our results suggest that both monitoring mechanisms and managerial incentives induce the corporate purchase of property insurance. However, the purchase of property insurance for managerial self‐interest is only prevalent in firms subject to lax monitoring, and the determinants of insurance purchases are more in line with the prediction of the economic theory in firms with strong monitoring. In addition, our study contributes a number of new insights into the determinants of corporate purchase of property insurance.