浅谈宏观金属风险管理

一、识别和衡量金融风险的途径 如何正确识别和衡量金融风险,是防范和化解金融风险的前提条件.目前,人民银行有多种监管报表,它能有效地反映其被监管单位的业务状况,但对被监管单位的人员状况、经济行为等难以及时掌握,一些主观性因素造成的金融风险,不能及时得到控制,这就需要继续补充和完善监测的指标及监管内容.如果将市场经济过渡期和体制转轨作为我国金融风险研究的特定背景,目前识别和衡量金融风险应从以下几方面进行:     

浅谈宏观金融风险管理

一、识别和衡量金融风险的途径 如何正确识别和衡量金融风险,是防范和化解金融风险的前提条件.目前,人民银行有多种监管报表,它能有效地反映其被监管单位的业务状况,但对被监管单位的人员状况、经济行为等难以及时掌握,一些主观性因素造成的金融风险,不能及时得到控制,这就需要继续补充和完善监测的指标及监管内容.如果将市场经济过渡期和体制转轨作为我国金融风险研究的特定背景,目前识别和衡量金融风险应从以下几方面进行:     

现阶段我国跨行业交叉性金融工具的监管

现有文献对跨行业交叉性金融工具的论述较为分散，本文首次对跨行业交叉性金融工具的特征进行了概括。通过对现阶段我国跨行业交叉性金融工具发展的现状、可能产生的金融风险以及在监管实践中存在问题的阐述，进而提出对跨行业交叉性金融风险监管的几点建议。     

建立福建省金融风险预警机制的探索

金融风险的广泛存在是现代金融市场的重要特征。防范和化解金融风险,对于促进金融业稳健发展,维护国家经济安全具有重要现实意义。银行监管职能从人民银行分离后,防范系统性金融风险进而维护金融稳定成为人民银行的主要职能之一。人民银行省会城市中心支行作为人民银行省域分支机构,监测、评估所在省金融体系的风险,研究实施防范和化解风险的政策措施是其维护金融稳定的核心任务。     

发挥人民银行内审的再监督职能

1.加强内审工作的规范化建设.防范、控制、化解金融风险是当前乃至以后较长时间内人民银行的一项重要工作.加强内审工作规范化建设可以更好地规范人民银行的监管行为,监督人民银行职能部门履行职责情况,是防范化解金融风险,避免和纠正人民银行履行监管职责中的失职和渎职行为的需要.保证中央银行新机制的高效运行.     

浅谈监管科技在支付结算领域的应用

支付结算领域中金融科技的应用具有较强广泛性,金融科技在给支付结算行业带来前所未有新机遇的同时,也增加了支付业务的风险和不确定性,给监管带来了新的挑战,人民银行金融科技委员会明确提出要强化监管科技,提升跨行业、跨市场交叉性金融风险的甄别、防范和化解能力。本文主要针对监管科技在支付结算领域的应用进行分析,提出监管科技在支付结算领域应用的建议。     

基层央行在维护金融稳定中面临的困难及对策建议

一、当前基层人民银行在防范金融风险中面临的困难 　　1.基层人民银行风险管理体系不健全,风险信息来源不及时不完整,制约了防范金融风险的有效性.监管职能分离后,基层人民银行原来的监管部门已撤销,监管人员相应分离出去,目前基层人民银行还没有成立专门的风险管理和风险防范机构,也没有专门的风险管理人员,并伴随现场检查的减少,金融风险信息来源在时效性、详细程度、完整性方面较以前有较大的差距,防范金融风险仅有意向,但没有进入实质性阶段,致使对辖区内金融风险状况不甚了解,诸如风险种类、风险部位在那里都不清楚.……     

金融网络安全数字监管机制的探索与实践——以常州市金融业机构为例

随着数据在防范金融风险、提高监管效率等方面发挥愈加重要的作用,人民银行各分支机构对金融数字监管的需求也日益迫切.人民银行常州市中心支行尝试在辖区开展金融网络安全数字监管机制建设,整合数字化各类监管信息,提升金融网络安全监管的有效性.     

基于商业银行视角的交叉性金融风险研究

本文基于商业银行视角,从风险来源出发,分别从业务维度及客户维度梳理了交叉性金融风险的识别路径,并借助“管理熵”的概念,对交叉性金融风险逬行了测度,且设置了风险指标监测方案。最后对商业银行交叉性金融风险管理现状做以梳理,并提出了管控建议。     

提高国有商业银行不良贷款监测有效性的对策建议

近年来,人民银行为加强对国有独资商业银行不良贷款的监管,相继出台了一系列"抓降"措施,制定了<不良贷款认定暂行办法>,自上而下层层制定了"2000年--2002年防范和化解金融风险工作规划","四个严格"等.在上述措施效应逐步显现时,人民银行又采取一项举措,通过非现场监管对不良贷款实施监测和考核,这项措施从2001年7月实施后,经过一年的实践,对掌握、分析国有商业银行不良贷款情况,改善资产质量发挥了作用.但是,从基层人民银行实践看,由于主、客观原因,监测考核的有效性不足,没有达到对国有商业银行不良贷款监测分析和考核的初衷.     

Almanac of anticipations: The age of affluence—of anticipation—of anxiety—of automation—of discontinuity—of longing—of overkill—of space exploration

With this survey of developments in the futures field since 1945, I.F. Clarke completes his present series for Futures. He makes two major points: that forecasting techniques have become essential tools in the management of change; and that nuclear weapons and ecological problems have added a moral dimension to the study of the future. In the next issue of Futures he will start a new series on the range of future-thinking in the USA, from the expectations of the first settlers to the Star Wars programme.     

基金公司经营融资融券业务的问题审视

融资融券业务正式运营已经开展,为证券市场带来了革命性的改革,作为证券市场的一大主体,基金公司面对融资融券也迎来了新的发展方向和挑战,本文从融资融券业务的运行机制入手,分析了基金公司融资融券的新契机,并对其即将面临的问题进行审视和剖析,进而提出策略建议.     

对基层人民银行科技工作的几点建议

银监会分设后,人民银行将专司货币政策、金融稳定、金融服务三大职能。作为人民银行的分支机构,基层人民银行的工作重心也将从金融监管调整到这三大职能上来。人民银行的科技部门,就要积极运用科技手段,为人民银行履行新的职能发挥“服务、支持、促进、发展”的作用。一、围绕三大职能搭建五大平台经过“六五打基础、七五作准备、八五大发展”几个阶段后,人民银行相继实现了核算电算化、清算网络化和办公信息化。特别是近一两年来,陆续开通了大额支付系统、信贷登记咨询系统、会计四集中系统、金融信息服务网站等系统,人民银行信息化水平又…     

社会主义所有制形式的改革、完善与共产党执政能力的提高

在中国,所有制形式的调整、改革与完善,先进生产力的发展,党的执政能力建设,是社会主义建设过程中密切结合在一起的三个不同层面的发展关系.应在相互促进和共同提高中促进社会的和谐发展,保证社会主义现代化建设战略目标的顺利实现.     

Summary of Results of Survey of Seminar Attendees

Abstract

The Society of Actuaries undertook a three-phase research project on mortality improvement in the three NAFTA countries: Canada, Mexico, and the U.S. Phase 1 consisted of a literature review of papers on projecting mortality levels in the future and a study of the trend in mortality improvement during this century. Phase 2 consisted of a discussion of different facets of modeling mortality rates at a seminar attended by 79 experts (actuaries, demographers, economists, and medical researchers) representing different countries. The last session of the seminar consisted of the completion of a survey by the attendees to obtain input for Phase 3, which would analyze the impact of mortality improvement on the social security system of each country. This paper summarizes the results of the survey.

The survey results illustrate the difficulty in forecasting mortality levels, because the effects of many factors that could have significant impact on mortality rates are unknown. This suggests the need for dynamic forecasting, which allows for the possibility of random shocks. A majority of the survey respondents believe that stochastic forecasting models, despite their complexity, have significant potential to add value. Respondents also believe that both historical data and cause-specific mortality forecasts are useful as input and also in validating forecasts of the aggregate levels of mortality. The challenge is to develop more sophisticated forecasting models to produce results that are relatively easy to interpret and to communicate these results to the desired audiences, including the public and policymakers.

The survey results suggest that the aggregate effect of lifestyle changes, medical advances, diseases, catastrophe, and physical environmental changes is an increase in life span. However, there is much uncertainty about the future. Respondents expect that beyond the year 2020 the mean annual rate of reduction in mortality for males age 65 and over will average about 0.58% for Canada, 0.76% for Mexico, and 0.67% for the U.S. The results for the female age 65 and over population are 0.64%, 0.83%, and 0.70%, respectively. The age 65 and over population is expected to see larger percentage reductions in mortality than the 0–14 and 15–64 populations. The reductions in male and female mortality will be ultimately the same, and the mortality levels in the three countries will ultimately converge, although differences may persist for decades.     

The Usefulness of Measures of Consistency of Discretionary Components of Accruals in the Detection of Earnings Management

Abstract:  Prior research has shown the prevalence of measurement error in models used to estimate aggregate discretionary accruals. In these models, the incremental information content of the various components of accruals is ignored. Limited prior research and data gathered from firms under Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) litigation indicate that managers use either one or more than one component of accruals simultaneously, in a consistent way to manipulate bottom-line earnings in a given direction. I propose two measures that capture the consistency between the discretionary components of accruals and test their significance in earnings management (EM) detection in firms that have artificially added accrual manipulation and firms that were targeted by the SEC for accrual manipulation. There is evidence that this information is incrementally useful in detecting EM. This finding paves the way for improvements in the discretionary accruals measure by including consistency information from the components of aggregate accruals.     

Properties of time-series estimates of degree of leverage measures

Empirical studies suggest that time-series regression estimates of the degrees of operating and financial leverage have a tendency to produce measures less than one. According to ex ante theory, these measures should be greater than one for firms operating above the breakeven point. There have also been suggestions that the biases in these estimates may be attributable to an underlying increase in unit sales. This work presents evidence that these counter-intuitive measures are produced by changes in the firm's operating parameters (unit price, variable cost, fixed cost and interest payments). It further suggests that attempts to control for the underlying change in unit sales substantially increase the volatility of predicted estimates.     

浅议金融机构的举证责任

金融纠纷案件是当事人以存单或进账单、对账单、存款合同、保险单、票据、证券等凭证为主要证据向人民法院提出诉讼的案件,对于不同种类金融纠纷的当事人的举证责任,我国现行的金融法律、法规及司法解释有不同的规定。由于金融机构的特殊法律地位,发生金融纠纷时存在有关当事人将最后偿付风险转移给金融机构承担的主观故意,在客观上会使金融机构难以提供相应的证据来对抗不法债权人的诉讼请求,而导致金融机构败诉。为此,对金融诉讼案件中金融机构的举证责任加以研究具有重要的实践意义。     

Separation of Unit of Account from Medium of Exchange

The separation of a unit of account (UoA) from a medium of exchange (MoE) in the commodity–money system is investigated by considering explicitly a seller's choice of UoA in terms of either an MoE or a unit of metal weight. If the likelihood of debasement of an MoE and its rate are high enough, the price is posted in terms of a unit of metal weight rather than an MoE. Interestingly, this MoE–UoA separated equilibrium yields the flexible nominal price, whereas an MoE–UoA integrated equilibrium yields the sticky one. This implies the nominal price rigidity in the fiat‐money system where MoE and UoA are integrated.     

银行软件项目外包管理分析

一、引言随着国民经济的不断发展,银行业务与外部企业的联系越来越密切。银行正逐步成为现代经济活动的中心,作为数据处理核心的银行业务应用也越来越大型化、越来越复杂化,因此许多银行也把软件项目逐步由原来的自主开发转变为与公司合作的方式,或直接外包开发的方式,银行本身的技术人员也逐步由开发转向项目管理。二、项目外包的分类银行项目的外包有以下几种情况:①部分子系统外包,有时由于银行的软件项目太大,单靠银行自身的开发力量基本无法在预定的时间内完成项目,只好把相对独立的部分外包;②直接购买软件公司的成熟产品,有些金融软…