Long-term implications of oil discoveries for international saving in a DSGE model

Possession and production of oil reserves affects the host country’s current account. Throughout the history of the North Sea oil, Norway ran persistent current account surpluses and accumulated public “oil funds.” The other major producer, the United Kingdom did not establish an oil fund. This work models how oil discoveries impact the current account. A small open economy DSGE model with an oil sector expresses the current account as a function of oil discoveries. In this model, an oil discovery creates a long-term borrowing-repayment-saving cycle. Some of the characteristics of the economy that affect oil-related decisions include: the presence of an oil fund, the equity home bias, and the technology of the oil industry. These characteristics are estimated structurally using the North Sea data for Norway and the United Kingdom. The estimation suggests that, upon discovering oil in the North Sea, the populations of Norway and the United Kingdom made similar economic choices but under different circumstances: Norway’s export revenues were amplified by a period of high oil prices in the 2000s, whereas the UK largely balanced its oil trade and did not benefit from the oil price. Similar decisions made under different circumstances led to remarkably different effects of oil discoveries on the current accounts.     

Poisoned grapes,mad cows and protectionism

This paper studies two episodes where a ban on imports was imposed to safeguard people's health. The first case is the poisoned grapes crisis involving Chile and the United States in 1989. The second is the “mad cows” dispute, which broke out in 1996, between the United Kingdom and the European Union. These case studies motivate a new definition of “protectionist measure” which is applied to argue that the European Union's ban on British beef exports was not protectionist, while the US ban on Chilean fruit possibly classifies as such a measure.     

Micro-simulation and Normative Policy Evaluation: An Application to Some EU Tax Benefits Systems

In this work we explore the impact of alternative tax benefits systems on household welfare. The framework of our analysis is the theory of optimal taxation with the distribution of potential wages replaced by the distribution of household abilities. The latter has been calculated by inversion of the household's utility maximization problem. This methodology has then been implemented in order to compare the tax benefits systems of France and the United Kingdom. We have employed a behavioral micro‐simulation model that has been applied on samples extracted from the “Households Budget Survey 1989” of INSEE and from the “Family Expenditure Survey” of ONS.     

Family expenditure data,heteroscedasticity and the Law of Demand

This paper presents some results of a data analysis of Family Expenditure Surveys for the United Kingdom and France. It is shown that these data sets exhibit characteristic features that we call “increasing spread” and “increasing dispersion”. Statistical tools used for analysing the data are discussed. They are based on concepts from non-parametric regression and average derivative estimation. One can show that increasing dispersion supports the weak axiom of revealed preferences of the market demand function. Increasing spread provides empirical evidence for the Law of Demand.     

Soft power and exports

This paper seeks to help establish a stylized fact: a country’s exports rise when its leadership is approved by other countries. I show this using a standard gravity model of bilateral exports, a panel of data from 2006 through 2017, and an annual Gallup survey that asks people in up to 157 countries whether they approve of the job performance of the leadership of China, Germany, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Holding other things constant, a country’s exports are higher if its leadership is approved by the importer—“soft power” promotes exports. The soft power effect is statistically and economically significant; a 1% increase in leadership approval raises exports by around two‐thirds of a percent. This effect is reasonably robust, and different measures of soft power deliver similar results. I conservatively estimate that the >20 percentage point decline in foreign approval of American leadership between 2016 (the final year of Obama’s presidency) and 2017 (Trump’s first year) lowered American exports by at least U.S.$3 billion.     

Cornelius Castoriadis on the Scope and Content of Neoclassical and Marxian Economics

The paper presents the thought of the political philosopher Cornelius Castoriadis on economic methodology and the neoclassical and Marxian traditions. Castoriadis suggested that the scope of economic theory includes the identification of “local” regularities and not the search for invariant “laws.” He criticized the use of equilibrium and the utilitarian framework in the neoclassical tradition and proposed to approach human agency based on the Aristotelian concept of the “social individual.” In addition, he criticized the deterministic nature of the Marxian “laws.” According to Castoriadis, the use of concepts such as the “production function” and “capital” presents a number of caveats.     

Budget windows,sunsets, and fiscal control

In recent years, the United States has evaluated policy changes using a multi-year budget window. A budget window that is too short permits the shifting of costs beyond the window's endpoint, while a window that is too long includes years for which current legislation is essentially meaningless, and allows the shifting of fiscal burdens to those whom budget rules are supposed to protect. This paper characterizes the “optimal” budget window. An appropriately designed budget window eliminates the incentive to use sunsets to avoid budget restrictions. The analysis also has implications for how to account for long-term term budget commitments.     

Is the response of the bank of England to exchange rate movements frequency-dependent?

In this paper, we estimate a Small Open Economy Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (SOEDSGE) model of the United Kingdom (UK), with the main focus being to test the hypothesis whether the Bank of England (BoE) responds to (frequency-dependent) exchange rate movements or not. For our purpose, we use an extended quarterly data set spanning the period of 1986:Q2 to 2018:Q1, which in turn includes the zero lower bound situation, and also estimate the SOEDSGE model based on observable data decomposed into its frequency components. We find that the BoE not only responds to exchange rate movements in a statistically significant manner, but also that it primarily focuses on long-term movements of currency depreciations more strongly than short-term fluctuations of the same. In general, our results are also confirmed for three other developed inflation-targeters namely, Australia, Canada and New Zealand.     

Price Level Determinacy under a Pure Interest Rate Peg

In this article we reexamine a famous result by T. J. Sargent and N. Wallace (1975, Journal of Political Economy83, 241–254) according to which a “pure interest rate peg” leads to nominal price indeterminacy. We use P. Weil's (1991, International Economic Review32, 37–53) generalization of the Sidrauski–Brock model, where arrival of new “generations” of infinitely lived agents is allowed, and we obtain the following results: (i) Nominal indeterminacy holds in the traditional Sidrauski–Brock framework; (ii) This nominal indeterminacy disappears as soon as new generations arrive in time, via some rigorous version of Patinkin's “real balance effect”; (iii) A multiplicity of solutions may still remain, but full determinacy occurs in some cases, depending notably on fiscal policy or the distribution of endowments in time. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E4, E5     

数字经济领域的研究述评、热点主题与新兴趋势——基于文献计量学的分析

为把握数字经济研究脉络、热点和趋势,基于Web of Science 核心数据库来源文献,利用CiteSpace和VOSviewer两种文献计量分析工具,对2009年以来数字经济文献进行计量分析。研究结果明确了数字经济年度发表趋势和领域类别、最具影响力和生产力的作者、机构、国家和期刊,数字经济相关研究在经历十几年的停滞后,目前处在快速增长期,研究学科集中在管理、环境科学、通信、环境研究和商业等领域,美国、英国和中国是重要的数字经济研究中心,国家之间和国际研究机构之间的研究合作有待加强。数字经济研究的突显主题经历了三个显著变化的发展阶段,呈现技术—产业—制度不断发展的演化脉络。数字经济研究热点集中在数字化、社会媒介、共享经济和循环经济等四个方面。综合关键词聚类结果和技术经济范式理论,从技术系统视角数字经济新兴趋势包括数字技术、智能资产和数字平台等;从产业系统视角包括商业模式、价值创造、循环经济、共享经济和零工经济等;从制度系统视角包括平台资本和政治经济等。最后是研究结论和展望。     

BARGAINING OVER TAXES AND ENTITLEMENTS IN THE ERA OF UNEQUAL GROWTH

Entitlements have become an increasing component of total government spending in the United States over the last six decades. Using a political-economy model where parties bargain over taxes and entitlements, we argue that such dynamics can be explained by two factors: “unequal growth,” where top earners became richer while the income of the bottom 50% stagnated, and budget rules that provide bargaining power to low-income earners through a “status quo effect.” In a model calibrated to the United States, we show that sustained bargaining power by a party representing the poor results in a rising share of entitlements consistent with the data.     

Demography, growth, and inequality

We extend the single-sector endogenous growth model to allow for a general demographic structure. The model shows that due to the “generational turnover term,” the equilibrium growth rate is less than that of a representative agent model. We find the local dynamics about the balanced growth path (bgp) to be unstable, implying that the bgp is the only viable equilibrium. Using numerical simulations, we analyze how economic consequences of a change in the population growth rate differ, depending on the source of the demographic change. In addition, we analyze the relationship between changes in the demographic structure and what we call the “natural rate of wealth inequality”. Finally, we use our model to study how the demographic transition experienced by the United States has affected the economic growth rate and the degree of wealth inequality.     

Implied discount rate and payback threshold of energy efficiency investment in the industrial sector

The industrial sector is responsible for about a third of the energy usage in the United States, and there is significant energy saving potential from the industrial sector. However, the phenomenon of “energy efficiency gap” – the scenario in which cost-effective energy efficient technologies enjoy only limited market success – appears frequently in the industrial sector. This article tries to explain this efficiency gap in the industrial sector by empirically estimating the implied discount rates and payback thresholds industrial firms use to evaluate their energy efficiency investments. Using the Industrial Assessment Centers (IAC) database from 2002 to 2011, with more than 30 000 energy efficiency recommendations, this article builds structural models of firms’ evaluation of an energy efficiency project. The model results show that the implied discount rates of medium to small industrial firms range from 40 to 45%, and the average payback threshold is about 9 months.     

The impact of mergers and acquisitions on company employment in the United Kingdom

This paper provides a systematic empirical analysis of the effects of take-over and merger activity on firm employment in the United Kingdom using a specially constructed database for the period 1967-1996. Our results indicate that significant rationalisations in the use of labour occur as firms reduce joint output and increase efficiency post-merger. These effects are particularly pronounced in the case of related and especially hostile mergers.     

Minimum Wages and the Gender GAP in Pay: New Evidence from the United Kingdom and Ireland

Women are disproportionately in low‐paid work compared to men so, in the absence of rationing effects on their employment, they should benefit the most from minimum wage policies. This study examines the change in the gender wage gap around the introduction of minimum wages in Ireland and the United Kingdom (U.K.). Using survey data for the two countries, we develop a decomposition of the change in the gender differences in wage distributions around the date of introduction of minimum wages. We separate out “price” effects attributed to minimum wages from “employment composition” effects. A significant reduction of the gender gap at low wages is observed after the introduction of the minimum wage in Ireland, while there is hardly any change in the U.K. Counterfactual simulations show that the difference between countries may be attributed to gender differences in non‐compliance with the minimum wage legislation in the U.K.     

Fiscal forecast errors: Governments versus independent agencies?

We present evidence pointing to the fact that international agencies' fiscal forecasts were affected to some extent by the same type of problems that the literature widely acknowledges for governmental ones. Informational shortages may lead independent agencies' staff to internalize “political biases” in governmental forecasts when trying to grasp genuine “private information”. Our study is based on a real-time database of EC, OECD and national governments' public deficit forecasts for 15 European countries over the period 1999–2007 and four vintages of projections per forecasted year. Against this background, independent national fiscal institutions might be a natural option, to the extent that they may have better access to inside national information than international organizations. Our results also provide some support to policy positions that claim a closer monitoring of official budgetary projections, in particular as regards transparency requisites, accountability and the threat of sanctions.     

Legal rules as a source of comparative advantage: A case study of telecommunication equipment interconnection

Legal rules governing the interconnection of customer-premises equipment (CPE) to the telephone network have economic implications for both producers and users of such equipment. The United States instituted a free-interconnection policy between 1968 and 1976; Canada, Japan, and the United Kingdom adopted similar policies in the 1980s. A free-interconnection policy can impose costs on domestic producers as a result of increased competition among both foreign and domestic producers, but it can also provide benefits to domestic users who gain access to the world market in CPE. Interconnection rules can therefore provide a comparative advantage to countries that adopt the most favorable policy.It is shown here that free interconnection has been a favorable policy for the United States. Costs to domestic CPE producers have been small, and benefits to large users appear to have been large, both in terms of increased product diversity and in terms of price and quality of established products. The movement toward free interconnection in other countries appears to be based on the favorable experience in the countries that have already made this change.This CPE example suggests a generalization that can be expressed in terms of the “market for regulation” concept. It is suggested that an equilibrium in this market occurs at the point of maximum benefits minus costs, as experienced by the participants in this market. This equilibrium is a “rule equilibrium.” In the case of CPE, the old equilibrium was at the no interconnection point while the new equilibrium is at the free interconnection point toward which the world is presently moving.     

The Demand for Broad Money in the United Kingdom, 1878–1993

Using annual data from Friedman and Schwartz (1982), Hendry and Ericsson (1991a) developed an empirical model of the demand for broad money in the United Kingdom over 1878–1975. We update that model over 1976–1993, accounting for changed data definitions and clarifying the concept of constancy. With appropriate measures of opportunity cost and credit deregulation, the model's parameters are empirically constant over the extended sample, which was economically turbulent. Policy implications follow for parameter nonconstancy and predictive failure, causation between money and prices, monetary targeting, deregulation and financial innovation, and the effect of policy on economic agents' behavior.     

Volatility spillovers across daytime and overnight information between China and world equity markets

This article explores the transmission of daytime and overnight information in terms of returns and volatility between Chinese and Asian, European and North American main stock markets. We propose a bivariate analysis with China as benchmark. By testing the constancy of the conditional correlations, we use an extended constant or dynamic conditional correlation GARCH model. The empirical findings show that across the daytime information transmissions, the relationships between China and Asian markets are closer than China and non-Asian markets, whereas through the overnight information transmissions these relationships are inverse. The analysis provides, before the crisis, that the overnight volatility spillover effects are from China to the United States and the United Kingdom. During the crisis, China affects the United Kingdom in terms of daytime volatility spillovers, whereas in terms of overnight volatility spillovers China affects the United States and is influenced by Japan. After the crisis, daytime volatility spillovers are from Taiwan to China, whereas the overnight volatility spillover effects are from China to the United States and the United Kingdom.     

A neoclassical input-output-model based on “make”- and “use”-tables

The author presents a neoclassical input-output-model for the Federal Republic of Germany, which is based on “make”- and “use”-tables instead of input-output-tables. The advantage of this approach is, that the model is able to discriminate volumes and prices for industries and commodities. The analytical frame-work gives economic hypotheses to explain the coefficients of “make”- and “use”-matrices. So a blended functional/institutional input-output-model can be constructed, which offers the opportunity to use different schemes for the disaggregation of final demand and primary inputs. The article describes the theoretical model and the numerical specification of an econometric model, which is based on it. At the end the results of an ex-post-projection with this econometric model are discussed.