基于GWR模型的工业地价对不同行业工业扩散的影响研究——以成绵乐发展带为例

研究目的:研究工业地价对工业扩散的影响作用变化及对不同行业工业扩散的空间影响差异。研究方法:基于成绵乐发展带2008—2017年工业用地出让信息,利用工业地价变动指数与工业扩散规模指数来量化工业地价变动和工业扩散规模变化,通过地理加权回归模型分析工业地价变化对不同行业工业扩散规模的空间影响。研究结果:(1)研究区内工业扩散具有显著的空间和时间差异;(2)工业地价变动指数是影响工业扩散的重要因素,但呈现波动下降趋势;(3)工业地价变动指数对不同行业工业扩散具有明显的行业和空间差异。研究结论:基于工业地价对工业扩散和不同行业的影响差异,应进一步完善工业地价市场机制,充分发挥地区比较优势,形成区域产业协调发展的良好格局。     

我国农民收入区域差异变动趋势分析--兼析农村人力资本的区域差异及其对农民收入的影响

日益扩大的农民收入区域差异在相当程度上影响着全面建设小康社会的进程。本文利用1980——2001年统计资料对我国农民收入区域差异的变动状况进行分析，证实了区域经济发展趋异假说，并从人力资本与农民收入相互关系角度探讨了二者区域差异变动规律的相异性及其原因。     

基于DEA方法的中国海洋捕捞产业动态生产效率

本文利用数据包络分析方法（DEA）对我国沿海11个省、市的海洋捕捞生产效率进行了总体分析和评价，并利用Malmquist生产率指数结合规模经济理论对考察对象的效率变动进行了分析和总结。研究结果表明，我国海洋捕捞产业的纯技术效率较高，规模经济效率低下是综合效率低下的主因；各考察对象之间的综合技术效率差异较大，并表现出明显的区域特征；考察期内Malmqusit生产效率指数的变动结果是降低的，降低的原因主要来自技术变动率的下降。最后，本文对比了数据分析结果与实际情况，从理论上认为海洋捕捞统计数据与实际状况存在一定误差。     

区域交通与土地利用耦合关系研究

在系统分析了区域交通与土地利用特征的基础上,对区域交通与土地利用的相互作用机制进行了研究,并提出了区域交通-土地利用耦合系数的概念.以黄石市1996-2004年间的交通、城镇建设和耕地的用地规模进行分析,结果显示近年来黄石市的交通-土地利用存在较为密切的关系,近年来交通得到较大发展,因而耦合系数呈增长趋势.     

中国东北地区水稻生产效率的实证分析——以吉林省水稻生产为例

本文主要利用吉林省8个县(市)1994～2005年水稻生产投入产出的面板数据,采用非参数HMB指数方法对水稻生产的效率变动进行分解分析,获取各指数的时序变动趋势特征和空间分布特征,并运用数据包络分析(DEA)法对HMB指数及其分解的各指数的变动原因做出进一步探讨。结果表明,吉林省水稻生产全要素生产率(TFP)主要由于技术进步水平低、规模无效率的作用而呈现下降趋势,可以通过提高技术进步水平、扩大生产规模等手段来改善生产效率水平。     

地区生产专业化与产业集聚——内蒙古畜产品加工业集聚趋势分析

本文利用区位商分析了2000年和2005年内蒙古乳业、肉类加工业、毛绒加工业在内蒙古各地区的集聚区域分布情况,并使用Hoover系数分析测定了2000-2005年这三个产业在各盟市的产业集聚水平及变动趋势,并对三个产业在各盟市的分布和集聚特点进行了实证分析.     

农业全要素生产率测度及收敛性分析——基于Hicks-Moorsteen指数

本文以四川为例,运用Hicks-Moorsteen指数法重新测度并分解了2006~2015年四川省各市(州)的农业全要素生产率(TFP),探讨其变动情况与区域差异成因,进一步考察了农业TFP的收敛特征。结果表明:四川省农业TFP呈现正增长,技术进步是其增长的单一驱动力,以残余产出规模效率、残余混合效率损失为表征的制度约束仍存在。区域间TFP差异明显,然全省及各区域均具备条件β收敛特征,表明各市州发展差距正不断缩小,并将基于自身资源禀赋实现相对稳态。     

产业结构变动与林业经济增长:贡献与差异

采用多部门经济模型中基于统计角度的GDP产业结构贡献度测算方法与林业统计年鉴相关历史数据,计算得出了1997～2006年全国26个省、市、区历年林业产业结构变动对林业经济增长的贡献值(R)。在此基础之上,分析了R值的省际差异与各年的离散程度;计算了10年间产业结构变动对林业经济增长率的平均贡献率(M),同样对M值也进行了相应的空间差异分析;得出了三个重要的结论并进行了讨论。     

林业产业结构变动对林业经济增长贡献及其空间差异分析

采用多部门经济模型中基于统计角度的GDP产业结构贡献度测算方法与林业统计年鉴相关历史数据,计算得出了1997—2006年间全国26个省、市、区历年林业产业结构变动对林业经济增长的贡献值(R)。在此基础之上,分析了R值的省际差异与各年的离散程度;计算10年间产业结构变动对林业经济增长率的平均贡献率(M),同样对M值进行相应的空间差异分析。得出了三个重要的结论并进行了讨论。     

中国农村居民收入的区域分布格局

从区域农村居民收入水平的影响因素分析入手，分别在县、省和地带等三个区域层次对中国农村居民收入的区域差异进行了分析，通过计算各种地域水平的基尼系数对区域差异变动情况进行了量化。同时对中国农村居民收入的区域分布格局，尤其是高收入地区和低收入的集中分布区进行了分析。最后提出了若干政策建议。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

The Effect of the Structural Adjustment Program on the Output,Prices and Exports of Major Agricultural Export Crops in Nigeria

The primary objective of this paper is to examine changes in the level of output, prices and exports of major export crops resulting from the Structural Adjustment Program (SAP) in Nigeria. THere two main sources of data: the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) through its annual reports, Economic and Financial Review, and the Nigerian Federal Office of Statistics (FOS) through its Trade Summaries. Although the SAP led to appreciable increases in output and producer prices, its effects on exports were insignificant. The implications of these for the implementation of the program are explored.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Revealing different understandings of soil held by scientists and farmers in the context of soil protection and management

This paper aims to analyse and draw together results from similar studies in England, Switzerland and France which investigated farmers’ understanding of soil and compared it with that of scientists, researchers and advisors (collectively called scientists in this analysis). A range of methods were used across the three studies and different theoretical approaches, looking at forms of knowledge, local practice of knowledge production and conceptions of reality, were employed to explain the results. Despite the different contexts, methodologies and theoretical approaches in the three studies, the results reveal similar patterns of difference in farmer and scientist understanding of soil. In the English study, farmers demonstrate a ‘know-how’ form or intuitive working knowledge of soil while advisors rely on scientifically established forms of ‘know-why’ and seek to understand and explain soil processes. Similarly in the Swiss study farmers’ and scientists’ differing perceptions are directed and shaped by their respective aims, methods and context of work. In the French study, farmers and researchers are shown to have different conceptions of soil, they attribute different meaning to the same activities, and use different words and language to describe the same features. In all three studies understanding is shown to be cultural and contextual, as such an integrative theoretical framework is proposed.     

森林生物多样性评价模型的改进

针对2002年的评价模型中的不足,提出了新的改进后的森林生物多样性变化的评价模型,并在我国第六次森林资源清查(1999～2003)资料的基础上,对1973～2003年我国森林生物多样性的变化进行了补充评价。评价结果表明:我国森林生物多样性的压力越来越大,压力指数由1973年的100,上升到2003年的199.10,上升了1.99倍;森林物种多样性总体的下降趋势已有一定幅度的改变,森林物种多样性指数增加了31.12%。森林生态系统多样性和森林生物多样性先逐渐上升,尔后又下降,第六次森林资源清查时又有所恢复,并分别上升了4.67个百分点和17.90个百分点。     

Evaluating Alternative Policy Responses to Higher World Food Prices: The Case of Increasing Rice Prices in Madagascar

Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribution, and poor net sellers are actually worse off. Developing a system of targeted direct transfers to poor households is likely to be a substantially more cost-effective approach to poverty alleviation.     

转变地质工作发展与服务方式的实践和建议

天津市地矿局注重加快转变经济发展方式,发挥地质工作优势,推进低碳清洁能源的开发利用创新和技术进步,紧紧依托地质工作的人才、技术和行业优势,加大清洁环保资源的勘查、研究、开发、利用。针对天津市水资源缺乏的情况,积极加强后备和应紧水源勘查。按照“两种资源,两个市场”的思路,通过实施中外合作勘查项目,以境外勘查工作为载体和平台,实施引进来和走出去战略,为天津市经济社会发展提供地质技术支撑。