我国货币中性的实证研究

国际金融危机爆发以来,降低利率、增加流通中货币成了各国政府解决金融危机的共同做法,货币对于经济的积极作用再次引起人们的关注。过于宽松的货币政策能持续多久,会不会造成严重的通货膨胀,进而破坏经济的健康发展,也同样引起人们的关注。本文对我国1978-2009年的流通中货币、利率、物价指数对GDP的影响进行了实证研究,结果表明流通中货币不是实际GDP增长的格兰杰原因,货币是中性的;GDP的实际增长率是实际利率的格兰杰原因,名义利率和GDP没有因果关系;GDP和物价指数没有格兰杰因果关系,通货膨胀不能促进经济的增长。     

Analyzing the Link Between Real GDP and Employment: An Industry Sector Approach

This paper offers insight into the “jobless recovery” phenomenon recently experienced in the U.S. economy by examining industry-sector employment responsiveness to the long-term real GDP expansion occurring during 1991- 2001. Two employment models are specified—one using real GDP as the only explanatory variable and the other using real GDP, five additional macroeconomic performance variables, and a time trend as explanatory variables. Monthly data for April 1991–March 2001, and OLSQ regressions are used to derive industry-sector elasticities of employment with respect to real GDP. Empirical results highlight the importance of controlling for non-real GDP macro variables when determining relationships between employment and real GDP. The results identify five industries exhibiting “jobless recovery” characteristics (having negative employment elasticities) and a broad range of employment elasticities across industry categories. The findings may be helpful to business economists modeling their own industry employment and suggest that even during extended periods of real GDP expansion, there may be a case for using industry-specific labor market transition initiatives to assist employment growth. JEL Classification C82,R31     

The impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and oil exports on real GDP in Syria: Evidence from the ARDL approach

This paper investigates the impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility and trade on real GDP and real GDP growth in the Syrian economy over the period of 1990Q1–2010Q4. To this end, we first construct a parallel market exchange rate volatility indicator. Second, we estimate an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model where we include our indicator of volatility among the main determinants of real GDP. Our findings imply that real GDP can be explained by three main variables: parallel market exchange rate, money supply, and oil exports. The long-run equilibrium reveals that parallel market exchange rate volatility has a negative impact on real GDP compared to the positive impact of money supply and oil exports. In contrast, the short-run impact of parallel market exchange rate volatility on real GDP growth is positive and very small counter to the long-run impact. Furthermore, the coefficient of the error correction term of the estimated ARDL model indicates that real GDP deviation from the equilibrium level will be corrected by about 10% after each quarter.     

我国贸易条件恶化与贫困化增长

本文首先测算了我国的年度贸易条件,并使用贸易条件调整的实际国内生产总值作为指标,研究了我国国际购买力的变动情况,进而得出我国国民财富的的总体状况。随后使用居民实际人均消费支出作为经济福利的指标,运用显示偏好弱公理分析了国民经济福利的变动情况,并通过与实际国内生产总值变化率的对比,判定了我国经济是否存在贫困化增长。研究结果表明,尽管贸易条件不断恶化,迄今为止我国经济并没有出现贫困化增长。     

第三产业对GDP增长的贡献分析--以广东省为例

由广东省第三产业对全省GDP增长的贡献及第三产业各主要行业对GDP增长贡献大小可以看出,随着工业化的发展,第三产业将成为国民经济的主要推动力。本文认为,第三产业对国民经济的贡献份额与经济增长水平高度相关,第三产业中年均增速快的行业对国民经济的推动力也大,加快第三产业发展是国民经济发展的客观要求;要加快广东国民经济的发展,必须加快第三产业的发展,而在第三产业内部,应着重发展交通邮电、批发零售、房地产、社会服务、金融保险等对国民经济推动力大的行业。     

人力资本、出口贸易与我国经济增长的动态关系

本文应用1952-2004年的实际数据,利用内生的结构断点单位根检验、协整和误差修正模型对我国的GDP、出口和人力资本存量之间的动态行为关系进行了实证研究。结果表明:GDP、出口和人力资本都是有结构断点的非平稳时间序列,它们三者之间存在长期的均衡关系;人力资本与出口之间有着双向的因果关系,且人力资本是经济增长的原因。本文的结论支持了我国是人力资本型内生经济增长和出口导向型经济增长国家的认识。     

Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes

Real GDP tends to underestimate the increase in real domestic income and welfare when the terms of trade improve. An improvement in the terms of trade is similar to a technological progress, but when computing real GDP, the national accounts treat the former as a price phenomenon and the latter as a real event. Calculations for 26 countries show that the divergence can add up to more than 10% of GDP in less than two decades. Our analysis has a solid theoretical foundation, being based on the GNP/GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy.     

China and Its Dollar Exchange Rate: A Worldwide Stabilising Influence?1

China is criticised for keeping its dollar exchange rate fairly stable when it has a large trade (saving) surplus. This criticism is misplaced in two ways. First, no predictable link exists between the exchange rate and the trade balance of an international creditor economy. Second, since 1995, the stable yuan/dollar rate has anchored China’s price level and facilitated counter cyclical fiscal policies that have smoothed its high real GDP growth at a remarkable 9 to 11 per cent per year. With its now greater GDP, China displaces Japan as the largest economy in East Asia – but with a much stronger stabilising influence on East Asian neighbours from its higher economic growth and more stable dollar exchange rate. Now, an ever larger China is an essential stabiliser for the world economy – as exemplified by its prompt and effective fiscal response to the global credit crunch of 2008–09. However, cumulating financial distortions – in China and the United States – threaten to undermine China’s growth and its stabilising influence on the rest of the world.     

The Macroeconomic Effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement on Canada: A Counterfactual Analysis

We evaluate the macroeconomic effects of the Canada–US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on Canada's economy using a counterfactual analysis. We exploit the dependence of GDP growth (labour productivity and unemployment, respectively) among different economic entities and construct the counterfactuals using data from countries other than Canada. We find that in the adjustment period from 1989:Q1 to 1992:Q1, Canada's economy bore the short‐run adjustment costs of the FTA with a decline of the annual real GDP by 2.56 per cent and a decline of the labour productivity by 0.62 per cent. After the adjustment period, the FTA had a positive and permanent effect of 1.86 per cent on Canada's annual real GDP growth and raised the labour productivity from 1992 to 1994 by 2.39 per cent on average. Moreover, the FTA increased Canada's annual unemployment rate by 1.81 per cent in the period 1989–94.     

Terms of trade and exchange rate regimes in developing countries

Since Friedman [Essays in Positive Economics, University of Chicago Press, Chicago (1953) 157-203] an advantage often attributed to flexible exchange rate regimes over fixed regimes is their ability to insulate more effectively the economy against real shocks. I use a post-Bretton Woods sample (1973-96) of 75 developing countries to assess whether the responses of real GDP, real exchange rates, and prices to terms-of-trade shocks differ systematically across exchange rate regimes. I find that responses are significantly different across regimes in a way that supports Friedman’s hypothesis. The paper also examines the importance of terms-of-trade shocks in explaining the overall variance of output and prices in developing countries.     

从FDI看世界经济波动对我国经济增长的影响

随着我国对外开放的不断发展,外国直接投资已成为世界经济波动影响我国经济增长的一个重要经济变量。世界经济增长率下滑,我国外国直接投资流入增长率上升,推动我国经济高速增长;世界经济增长率上升,我国外国直接投资流入增长率下降,阻碍我国经济高速增长。本文对近20年来世界经济增长率与我国外国直接投资增长率以及国民生产总值增长率的相关性进行分析,充分验证了上述论点。     

A Note about the Relationship among Transaction Costs,Institutions and Productivity Growth

In order to test the Fuess and van den Berg [I9921 hypothesis on the influence of the increasing transactions sector's costs on the total factor productivity growth rate, the authors perform calculations and estimates of the Solow'S residual for both the total GNP and the non-transactions GNP on Italian data covering the period 1951-89. The results suggest that, as regards the Italian economy, the difference between total and non-transactions productivity growth rate (effect of institutions on material production), rather than having a constant positive sign, as in the findings of Fuess and van den Berg, alternates between negative and positive sign.     

Nowcasting global economic growth: A factor‐augmented mixed‐frequency approach

Assessing accurately global economic conditions is a great challenge for economists. The International Monetary Fund proposes within its periodic World Economic Outlook report a measure of the global GDP annual growth, that is generally considered as the benchmark nowcast by macroeconomists. In this paper, we put forward an alternative approach to provide monthly nowcasts of the annual global growth rate. Our approach builds on a Factor‐Augmented MIxed DAta Sampling (FA‐MIDAS) model that enables: (i) to account for a large monthly database including various countries and sectors of the global economy and (ii) to nowcast a low‐frequency macroeconomic variable using higher frequency information. Pseudo‐real‐time results over the period 2010–16 show that this approach provides reliable and timely nowcasts of the world GDP annual growth on a monthly basis.     

Uncovering Unobserved Economy: A General Equilibrium Characterization

This paper builds a three‐sector DSGE (Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium) model, considering explicitly the interactions among regular, underground and criminal sectors. We generated quarterly data for unobserved variables for Italian economy over the sample 1974:01–2011:02, through Monte Carlo simulations, and we found that underground economy is about 20 per cent of GDP, whereas criminal economy is 11 per cent. The dynamic behavior of the model shows that (1) regular production has a greater relative volatility with respect to unobserved production, (2) an efficient law enforcement activity is able to weaken unobserved activities and (3) unobserved sectors' variables exhibit a negative correlation with the corresponding ones of regular economy.     

现代流通业对城市经济发展的促进作用

流通业处于承上(生产)启下(消费)的地位,具有引导市场、决定生产、促进消费的积极作用,成为反映一个国家、地区综合实力和人民生活水平的晴雨表和市场经济条件下的“先导产业”。现代流通业对城市经济发展具有明显的促进作用,流通业增加值每增加1%,会带动城市GDP、消费、建筑业、房地产业、金融业等较大的增长;所以要发挥好“先导作用”视角,统筹规划现代流通业与城市经济发展,在发挥好“先导作用”的前提下,使二者和谐共进。     

金融发展、外生冲击与经济波动——基于我国省级面板数据的研究

文章运用我国28个省市1978-2009年面板数据,通过检验金融发展与人均实际GDP波动性和人均固定资产投资波动性的关系,发现我国金融系统市场化进程的不断推进和金融系统本身的逐步完善较大程度上抵消了外生波动对我国人均实际GDP波动性和人均实际固定资产投资波动性的影响,从而有效地降低了我国经济对外生冲击的敏感性。另外,研究中还发现,金融体系效率提升比金融体系规模扩张能更有效地缓解外生冲击对我国经济波动的影响。     

Monetary policy in developing countries: lessons from Kenya

We estimate and then simulate a model of Kenyan economic development from 1965 to 1997 with two objectives in mind. The first is to demonstrate the degree of volatility of cyclical shocks that developing countries experience and to calculate the domestic nominal adjustments required by these shocks under both irrevocably fixed and free exchange rates.A comparison of these counterfactual nominal adjustments identifies the short-run implications for an economy of the choice of exchange rate regime. The second objective is to provide an estimate of the consequences for the economic development of Kenya of the lack of a coherent monetary order (excessive domestic credit expansion and overvalued exchange rate) throughout most of the period since 1965.A neoclassical convergence growth model based on Barro and Sala-i-Martin (1992) is employed and calibrated to represent the long-run growth path of real GDP in Kenya. A short-run four-sector CGE model is constructed that allows for cyclical movements of real GDP about the convergence growth path. The cyclical model focuses on the adjustment of the relative price of non-traded goods that is required to ensure short-run equilibrium in the non-traded goods sector. Given that terms of trade shocks dominated the macro environment of Kenya over the sample period, we find that a free exchange rate regime would have insulated the economy to a greater degree than an irrevocably fixed regime. In the growth decomposition exercise, we estimate that the two largest (and negative) influences on Kenyan economic growth were the decline in the external terms of trade from 100 in 1965 to an average of 79.5 over the 32-year time period, and the overvalued Kenyan shilling represented by a premium on the parallel market for foreign exchange. Overall, we estimate that the overvalued exchange rate reduced economic growth by an average of 0.47 per cent per annum over the 32 years.     

中国股市、银行与经济增长

通过利用经济增长指标、股市指标和金融发展水平指标,对中国股市、银行业和宏观经济数据进行实证研究发现:我国银行业发展水平和贷款率指标,对于人均实际的GDP增长具有一定的正向推动关系,而且成交额比率与人均实际GDP的增长和储蓄存款存在着反向作用。从而得出的结论是,我国银行业的发展水平对宏观经济的影响要远远强于股市的影响作用。     

The impact of foreign interest rates on the economy: The role of the exchange rate regime

It is often argued that many economies are affected by conditions in foreign countries. This paper explores the connection between interest rates in major industrial countries and annual real output growth in other countries. The results show that high foreign interest rates have a contractionary effect on annual real GDP growth in the domestic economy, but that this effect is centered on countries with fixed exchange rates. The paper then examines the potential channels through which major-country interest rates affect other economies. The effect of foreign interest rates on domestic interest rates is the most likely channel when compared with other possibilities, such as a trade effect.     

Economic development and growth convergence in China

We investigate the issue of per capita real GDP growth convergence of the Chinese economy. The shrinkage method for panel data models is used to estimate the convergence rates of the individual provinces. The empirical evidence shows that growth convergence exists in China. Our analysis allows us to estimate the convergence rates for individual provinces. The results also show that the low-income provinces of the middle and the western regions are experiencing higher convergence rates.