On the Link Between Exchange‐rate Regimes,Capital Controls and Monetary Policy Autonomy in Small European Countries, 1979–2000

We investigate international monetary‐policy transmission under different exchange‐rate and capital‐account regimes in eleven small, open economies during the 1980s and 1990s. We find no systematic link between ex‐post monetary‐policy autonomy and exchange‐rate regimes. Capital controls appear to have provided a degree of temporal insulation from foreign monetary policy shocks, though not strict autonomy. The results are consistent both with short‐term autonomy for small countries even under fixed exchange rates and an open capital account, and with long‐term dependence under flexible exchange rates and an independent stability target. Results also indicate that euro‐area market interest rates are significantly more responsive to the development of the corresponding US rate than were the previous national rates.     

逆周期资本账户管制对宏观经济稳定与社会福利改善的作用

资本管制能否有效抵御外部冲击实现宏观经济稳定存在争论,本文通过构造开放经济的DSGE模型研究投资限制和逆周期金融交易税等资本管制工具对于实现宏观经济稳定和改善社会福利的作用。通过比较不同政策安排下主要宏观经济变量的波动性和脉冲响应函数可以发现,采用逆周期金融交易税作为资本管制工具在抵御外部冲击、维持宏观经济稳定方面具有比较优势。设置投资限制的资本管制促进了货币政策的独立性,可以使货币政策专注管理国内的经济增长和通货膨胀问题。通过不同政策安排下的福利分析可知,增加投资国外资产的限制对社会福利的增进起到负面作用,增加逆周期金融交易税的资本管制却可以减轻由投资限制导致的资源配置扭曲,从而放松投资国外资产的限制从根本上提高社会福利。所以,在资本管制工具的选择上,采取逆周期金融交易税可能比采用投资限制更优。随着资本账户开放的基本条件不断成熟,用金融交易税取代投资限制更符合浮动汇率制和自由兑换的资本账户的需求。     

India and the Impossible Trinity

In the 1990s, India responded to the well‐known trilemma of macroeconomic policy by adopting an intermediate exchange rate system combined with selective capital controls. This regime enabled the country to balance exchange rate stability, exchange rate targeting and monetary autonomy, and to weather successfully various shocks that included contagion from the East Asian crisis. India's experience serves to reinforce doubts about the desirability of bipolar exchange rate regimes for developing countries as an integral element of a new international financial architecture.     

中国资本账户开放的条件分析

根据蒙代尔的国际货币体系中三角难题理论,资本账户开放的前提必须取舍汇率的稳定性和货币政策的独立性。国际短期资本具有流动迅速性和易受心理预期影响的特性,国际投机资本的非正常流动是各国资本账户开放后产生危机的根源。泰国资本账户开放的实例表明中国资本账户开放必须具备五个条件：稳定的经济基础、合理的汇率机制、利率的市场化、完善的金融监管体系和国内资本市场的发展和壮大。     

The Brazilian Economy in 1994–1999: From the Real Plan to Inflation Targets

This paper investigates the three main events that shook the Brazilian economy in 1994‐‐1999, a period that represented a turning point in the country's economic history. These events were the implementation of the Real Plan in 1994, the devaluation crisis in 1999, and the subsequent adoption of inflation targets. The principal contributions of this period were the drastic reduction of high inflation rates – the biggest problem in Brazil since the 1970s – and the reorientation towards economic growth, which were also supported by a privatisation programme, the openness of the economy to foreign capital, a trade liberalisation process, and the ongoing fiscal adjustments. Nevertheless, the period also left its scars, such as high budget and current account deficits, accompanied by a policy of elevated interest rates and, until 1999, a highly appreciated exchange rate. The paper concludes with a cautiously optimistic evaluation of the country's economic future based on the accomplishments of the 1990s and the possibility of a long‐term commitment to low inflation targets.     

Export subsidies and foreign capital inflows

The welfare effect of a foreign capital inflow in an economy which practises an export-oriented trade policy is examined. The latter takes the form of optimally designed export subsidies, minimizing the welfare costs of existing import tariffs. Under the practice of this policy, an inflow of foreign capital is shown to have anambiguous welfare effect. An empirically relevant condition for welfare improvement is derived and discussed.     

“三元悖论”与中国汇率制度选择

＂三元悖论＂的基本原理是指在货币政策独立、资本自由流动和固定汇率这三个经济目标中最多只能同时实现两个,而该理论本身也存在理论假设过于绝对化,组合难以有效实现,政策组合难以执行的局限性。基于对中国资本流动现状和货币政策有效性分析和＂三元悖论＂的基本原理分析,得出我国的汇率制度选择终级目标是实现＂货币政策独立＋资本自由流动＋自由浮动汇率＂的政策组合。     

The reversibility of different types of capital flows to emerging markets

We investigate whether some types of capital flows are more likely to reverse than others during currency crises. Earlier statistical testing has yielded conflicting results on this issue. We argue that the problem with the earlier studies is that the degree of variability of capital flows during normal or inflow periods may give little clue to their behavior during crises and it is the latter that is most important for policy. Using data for 35 emerging economies for 1990 through 2003, we confirm that direct investment is the most stable category, but find that contrary to much popular analysis, private loans on average are as reversible as portfolio flows.     

The international assignment of stabilization policies under fixed and flexible exchange rates

This paper investigates the ability of policymakers to achieve stabilization targets in the face of spillover effects from abroad. In the context of a two-country Keynesian model, each country's stabilization policy turns out to have a comparative advantage over domestic economic activity under fixed exchange rates and sterilization. By assigning policy domestically, both employment targets can be eventually achieved despite trade linkage spillovers. The same conclusion is reached for the case of floating exchange rates despite spillover effects associated with capital mobility. Finally, it is discovered that coordination under fixed exchange rates may benefit one country and injure the other.     

信贷机制、货币乘数与货币政策有效性研究

本文在蒙代尔—弗莱明的分析框架下引入商业银行信贷机制,来考察固定汇率制下小型开放经济体货币政策的有效性问题,发现货币政策可以作为稳定经济的工具。文章指出,实行固定汇率制度的小型开放经济体,其货币政策具有一定的独立性,可以对实际产出产生一定的作用;不同的货币政策工具对实际产出发生作用的传导机制不同,从而导致效果不同,因此货币当局在对宏观经济进行调节时必须选择适当的货币政策工具。     

Debt composition and exchange rate balance sheet effect in Brazil: a firm level analysis

In this paper, we study the interaction between macroeconomic environment and firms’ balance sheet effects in Brazil during the 1990's. We start by assessing the influence of macroeconomic conditions on firms’ debt composition in Brazil. We found that larger firms tend to change debt currency composition more in response to a change in the exchange rate risk. We then proceed to investigate if and how exchange rate balance sheet effects affected the firms’ investment decisions. We test directly the exchange rate balance sheet effect on investment, but the results were not statistically significant. We then pursue an alternative investigation strategy, inspired by the credit channel literature. According to this perspective, Tobin's q can provide an adequate control for the competitiveness effect on investment. Our results provide supporting evidence for imperfect capital markets, but not for a balance sheet effect in Brazil. The main effect we found is that firms in industries with higher proportion of imported inputs tend to invest less when the exchange rate is depreciated.     

The Internationalization of Capital in a Small and Vulnerable Economy

Summary

Since the early 1980s, Ecuador has increasingly adopted a pro-free trade posture and has removed most restrictions on its capital account. Foreign capital, however, has not penetrated key sectors of the economy as the privatization drive has stalled and financial markets have remained weak. The combination of open capital accounts and meager foreign capital inflows has not proven particularly beneficial to Ecuador. Specifically, some aspects of the internationalization of capital such as offshore banking have created significant limitations for the conduct of monetary and exchange rate policy and have added to the vulnerability of the country in the face of economic crises. These negative externalities of cross-border short-term capital movements are not balanced by inflows of long-term foreign capital.     

Capital Inflows and the Real Exchange Rate: A Comparative Study of Asia and Latin America

The nexus of real exchange rate (RER) and capital inflows is examined through a comparative analysis of the experiences of emerging market economies in Asian and Latin America during the period 1985‐2000. It is found that the degree of appreciation in RER associated with capital inflow is uniformly much higher in Latin American countries compared to their Asian counterparts, despite the fact that the latter experienced far greater foreign capital inflows relative to the size of the economy. The econometric evidence suggests that both the composition of capital flows and differences in the degree of response of RER to capital flows matter in explaining these contrasting experiences. While RER appreciation is a phenomenon predominantly associated with other (non‐FDI) forms of capital inflows (OCFW), a given level of OCFW brings about a far greater degree of appreciation of the real exchange rate in Latin America where the importance of these flows in total capital inflow is also far greater. On the policy front, Asian countries seem to have used fiscal contraction and nominal exchange rate adjustment more effectively to cushion the RER against the appreciation pressure of capital inflows. There is, however, no evidence to suggest that sterilised intervention can generate a lasting impact on the real exchange rate.     

MARKET STRUCTURE,CAPITAL INFLOWS,AND HOME WELFARE

The welfare implications of foreign capital inflows in an economy with an imperfectly competitive product market and a capital-intensive import-competing sector are analyzed. If the market structure is exogenous with a fixed number of firms, then a capital inflow improves welfare of the host country. However, if the market structure is endogenous, then a capital inflow tends to be immiserizing because it increases entry and reduces per firm output, thus driving firms up their average cost schedule. In addition, the welfare implications of capital inflows in the presence of trade restrictions are also studied, generating some new insights.     

固定汇率制度与浮动汇率制度下经济的自动稳定性

本文运用规范的开放宏观模型和比较静态分析方法,讨论了固定汇率制度或浮动汇率制度下、如果没有政策的干预,面对真实或名义瞬时冲击时的产出和物价的自动稳定性。分析表明,两种汇率制度下经济稳定表现与经济系统的结构参数有密切的关系,没有一个汇率制度在所有情形下都表现得最好。但对特定的发展中国家经济结构特征和外生冲击来源的可能性来说,相对于浮动汇率制度,固定汇率制度更利于经济的自动稳定。     

Rhetorics of saving–investment correlations and the international mobility of capital: A survey

This study surveys the literature on saving–investment (SI) correlations and international mobility of capital (IMC) generated over more than three decades since the 1980s. Several studies have shown the presence of paradoxically high SI correlations for the developed countries with observed high IMC, and low SI correlations for the developing countries with observed low IMC. The studies accounting for structural breaks in model parameters provide dominant support for the decrease in SI correlations and increase in IMC after the switch from fixed to flexible exchange rate regime and the removal of policy restrictions on capital flows. The intertemporal optimisation approach to current account and the open-economy growth and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models mainly provide theoretical predictions and suggest that it is possible to find high SI correlations in the wake of high IMC. The increases in international capital flows have been the natural corollary of the growth of international trade in goods and services and increases in foreign direct investment flows. It is these factors, rather than international trade in capital market securities (bonds and equities) driven by the diversification benefits of financial portfolios per se, that have been the key levers of international financial flows.     

Exchange rate policies in Asia in an era of financial globalisation: An empirical assessment

Ebbs and flows of capital have complicated macroeconomic policy management for all emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) regardless of whether they have adopted flexible or managed exchange rate regimes. In the light of the renewed interest in the trilemma versus dilemma debate, we contribute to the related literature by presenting an empirical analysis of exchange rate flexibility and intervention for selected Asian EMDEs over the time period 2001–2016. In addition to estimating augmented Frankel–Wei regressions, we employ a generalised auto‐regressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH) model to assess the extent of foreign exchange (FX) intervention and whether there exist any asymmetries in the way countries intervene. Our results show that although there is greater flexibility in exchange rates, there is evidence of some countries potentially using FX intervention to manage currency movements. We also find evidence of asymmetry in intervention where exchange rate volatility responds more emphatically to FX sales than purchases.     

The fear of globalizing capital markets

It is generally accepted that free flow of goods benefits both economies without serious risks. The situation with the free flow of capital is different. Many policy makers and economists are skeptical not only about the benefits of free flow of capital, but also see uncontrolled capital flows as risky and destabilizing. Other economists, however, firmly believe that free capital flows will lead to a more efficient allocation of resources and greater economic growth. Nevertheless, the debate has little empirical evidence to rely on. We hope to fill that gap in this paper. We study the benefits and risks associated with capital flows by examining the experience of emerging economies around the time that foreign investment in stock markets was allowed. We investigate the impact of capital flows on stock returns, stock market efficiency, inflation, and exchange rates. We also examine the effect on different kinds of volatility that might arise as a consequence of capital flows: volatility of stock returns, volatility of inflation rates, and volatility of exchange rates. We find no evidence of an increase in inflation or an appreciation of exchange rates. Stock returns reflect a lower cost of capital after liberalization. There is no increase in stock market volatility and the volatility of inflation and exchange rates actually decreases. Stock markets become more efficient as determined by testing the random walk hypothesis.     

The macroeconomic effects of commodity market disruptions in open economies

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic effects of two of the principal causes of the commodity price boom in 1973-74: bad harvests and commodity speculation. The analysis uses a dynamic, fixprice-flexprice model in which exchange rates are flexible and commodities serve as both an asset and a consumption good. Commodity market disruptions of the magnitude that occurred in 1973-74 are shown to have significant effects on prices, exchange rates, trade flows, and capital flows — effects that persist long after the initial shock has passed. Asset markets, defined to include commodity markets, play a central role in transmitting these shocks throughout the world economy.     

Prolonged Stagnation,Hesitant Recovery: Japan from an ‘Austrian’ Perspective

Tentative indications of recovery at the turn of the millennium offer the prospect of an end to the economic crisis that has afflicted the world's second largest economy since 1991. Both the duration of these difficulties and their insusceptability to conventional policy stimuli have presented challenges to mainstream macroeconomic thinking. It is argued here that the business cycle theory developed by Friedrich Hayek on the basis of the Austrian economic tradition, although eclipsed by the contemporary writings of Keynes, offers insight into the intractable nature of the Japanese crisis. This contrasting perspective stresses the links between monetary policy and the evolution of capital structure to provide an explanation for the inevitable dislocation following a credit‐financed boom. On these grounds, the application to Japan emphasises relaterd monetary and exchange rate developments in the 1980s as the underlying cause of the long stagnation of the 1990s. It therefore contradicts the view of the IMF and other multilateral bodies that the country's financial sector deficiencies were the primary factor. The structural focus of the analysis also suggests that the current (uncharacteristic) Fund emphasis on the need for demand stimulation is misplaced. Arguing that the surrounding economies have a particular interest in the means chosen to consolidate economic recovery in Japan, a policy approach consistent with the Austrain diagnosis is set out. It provides a framework in which fiscal consolidation and monetary policy normalisation, as desired by some elements of the country's administration, would be an appropriate strategy for the promotion of recovery.