International productivity and factor price comparisons

Using OECD input–output tables for a diverse group of 33 countries in the year 2000 and estimates of each country's factor stocks, I compute factor payments for aggregate labor and capital with value-added data adjusted for self-employment by sector. Using a detailed technology matrix for the U.S., I compute factor-specific productivity measures in each country relative to the U.S., and show that these measures are strongly correlated with the pattern of wages and rental rates. I find that many low income countries with low labor productivity have relatively high capital productivity. I also find a distinctive pattern between factor productivity and factor payments depending on whether a country has a high or low wage-rental ratio compared to the U.S. I show these findings are consistent with the existence of sector-based differences in production technology and complementarities between factors.     

Reform and opening up in the new era: China trade policy review

This paper reviews the major changes in China's trade policies in the last few years. During this period, the adjustment of trade policies has developed in the following ways: first, the establishment of free trade zones, which emphasises the importance of advanced systems rather than preferential policies; second, putting forward the “Belt & Road” Initiative, which indicates China's new stage of development from “bringing in” to “going out”; third, holding import expos, which marks an era when China's foreign trade development has shifted from focusing on exports only to focusing on both exports and imports; fourth, reducing entry barriers of foreign capital, which demonstrates that the policy framework for FDI has gradually changed from a positive list to a negative list; fifth, promoting trade negotiations, which reflects that China has actively participated in bilateral, regional and multilateral trade talks; and finally, building up new experimental fields of reform and opening up, which shows evidence that a new generation of special economic zones is emerging.     

The trade facilitation impact of the Chinese diaspora

Using an enhanced data set on the population share of overseas Chinese in 1970 and 1990, this paper analyses the impact of the Chinese diaspora on facilitating China's bilateral trade during the period 1973–2013. Our findings suggest substantial trade creation effects resulting from the presence of ethnic Chinese in the trade partner population. Diaspora impacts on Chinese bilateral imports are in general higher than those found for exports. Coethnic networks play a larger role as long as the partner country does not have an RTA with China in place. Among export sectors, effects found were strongest for food, as well as for machinery and transport equipment. In regard to imports, coethnic networks matter mostly for raw materials, machinery and transport equipment, and chemicals.     

Determinants of China's bilateral trade balance in global value chains

This paper identifies the determinants of China's bilateral trade balance using a new measure based on international input–output data, the so-called ‘trade in value-added’ (TiVA), which can prevent double counting in the estimation of bilateral trade balance. Our results show that using a measure based on gross exports, rather than TiVA, causes relatively large overestimation of the impact of the RMB exchange rate on China's bilateral trade balance. This overestimation is mainly because that the increasing production of exports may require increasing intermediate imports as a consequence of international fragmentation of production in global value chains. In addition, our results also show that the impact of FDI inflows on China's bilateral trade balances depends on the position and role of China and its trading partners in GVCs.     

Risky business: Financial‐sector liberalization and China

China's dramatic growth in exports, its rising conflict with its trade partners over the perceived undervaluation of the renminbi, and the snail's pace of financial liberalization is pushing its bilateral trade and monetary relations to a boil. Discontent in the United States, Japan, Southeast Asia, and, most recently, Brazil, has led popular pundits and even country finance ministers to speak publicly of a “currency war” with many calling for the de‐pegging of the renminbi to the dollar and an immediate appreciation of China's currency. However, China's history of liberalization, beginning with the opening to the West in 1978, is well known as one of gradualism in trade and the financial spheres. Economic history is replete with economic crises brought on by too rapid or premature liberalization of countries' capital flows. This article presents the case both for and against capital account liberalization and highlights the risks that China in particular confronts in responding to external demands for greater openness and an appreciation of the renminbi. It clearly captures the tightrope that China must walk between responding to the demands of its trade partners and maintaining economic growth and political stability at home. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Are Exports of China,Japan and Korea Diverted in the Major Regional Trading Blocs?

In recent years China, Japan and Korea, the three major economies in East Asia, have been gearing up their efforts to sign free trade agreements with many different regions and countries. One of the main reasons for this is that they fear that with a regionalism movement rising in every corner of the world, their exports are discriminated against and diverted in the trading blocs of other nations. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is a real fear. We utilise the gravity equation augmented with dummy variables for regional trading blocs in three different specifications. One is the static, standard gravity model to examine the effect of regional blocs on the ‘level’ of exports from these three countries in 2003; the second is the fixed effects and random effects panel models for the period 1993–2003; and the third is the dynamic, partial‐adjustment model to examine the effect of blocs on the ‘changes’ in exports between 1993 and 2003. The results show that trade diversion is observed only for China's exports in EU, EFTA and EAEC, but no diversion effect is observed for Japan's and Korea's exports in any of the major trading blocs. On the other hand, trade creation is observed for exports from China in ASEAN, for exports from Japan in ASEAN, CACM, CARICOM, EAEC, EU and NAFTA, and for exports from Korea in ASEAN, CACM, EAEC and MERCOSUR. Thus, Japan's and Korea's fear of discrimination and trade diversion is ungrounded, while China's fear is grounded only to a limited extent.     

Investigating China's Disaggregated Processed Exports: Evidence that Both the RMB and Exchange Rates in Supply Chain Countries Matter

China's trade surplus is entirely in processing trade. Processed exports are final goods produced using parts and components coming from supply chain countries. Many claim that because much of the value added of China's processed exports comes from other countries, the renminbi should not affect China's processed exports. To investigate these issues, this paper disaggregates processed exports into their two main categories, processing with imported materials (PWIM) exports and processing and assembly (PAA) exports. For PWIM exports, much of the value added comes from China while for PAA exports most of the value added comes from supply chain countries. DOLS results indicate that exchange rates in supply chain countries affect both types of exports and that the renminbi significantly affects PWIM exports, but not PAA exports. These results indicate that both the renminbi and exchange rates in supply chain countries matter for processed exports.     

Labour market adjustment to third-party competition: Evidence from Mexico

China's exports reduce wages in importing countries, but few studies have looked at competition in third-party markets. We examine labour market outcomes in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors associated with US apparel and textile imports from China. Using data on US imports in conjunction with quarterly Mexican labour force surveys, we show that US imports from China are associated with a reduction of employment in Mexico's apparel and textile sectors. These effects are the most pronounced for the least educated. Wages were not impacted on net except for possibly the poorest which would indicate stronger local labour market ties in the left tail of the wage distribution. Finally, the effects of trade-induced demand shocks dissipate after about two quarters indicating low firm-level adjustment costs.     

Time structure of production and the theory of international trade

This paper reexamines aspects of international trade theory by taking account of the time required for transforming inputs into outputs. The discussion focuses explicitly upon the time structure of production, characterized by profiles of inputs and outputs over time. Each of the model's two consumer-good sectors has different flow-input flow-output technology, with which labor produces heterogeneous capital goods and final output. As shown by the analysis, intersectoral differences in the time structure of production have important implications for the impact of world trade on a country's employment of labor, accumulation of capital and level of income.     

中性还是偏向性技术变迁影响出口?——基于细分行业贸易数据的经验分析

运用Tobit模型对中国SITC-3位码行业出口数据进行实证分析,本文发现,生产率越高的行业出口能力越强,技术变迁带来的效率改进是出口增长的重要原因。但与中性技术变迁相比,偏向性技术变迁更适合解释中国不同行业的相对出口存在差异的问题。劳动和资本密集型行业发生的偏向资本技术变迁,是中国劳动密集型产品出口比重不断减小,而资本密集型产品出口比重不断增加的重要原因。偏向资本的技术变迁,以及由此引起的要素相对生产率改变,与要素相对禀赋一起,预示着我国动态比较优势的逐渐形成。     

Can Africa compete with China in manufacturing? The role of relative unit labour costs

This paper examines sub‐Saharan Africa's (SSA ) bilateral trade and cost competitiveness with China. We document an extraordinary imbalance in the structure of bilateral trade in that China overwhelmingly exports manufactured products to SSA and almost exclusively imports primary products in return. Our principal means of assessing the competitiveness of SSA 's manufacturing sector vis‐à‐vis China are measures of relative unit labour costs (RULC ). We find that African RULC s declined over the 2000s as China's wages rose faster than Chinese productivity while the reverse was true for the SSA countries in our sample. Nevertheless, RULC s vis‐à‐vis China remain very high for many SSA countries. High RULC s along with weaknesses in the business climate suggest that most SSA countries are unlikely to be competitive in labour‐intensive manufacturing any time soon.     

Is China's Exchange Rate Policy a Form of Trade Protection?

This paper examines how China's heavily managed exchange rate contributes to its huge trade surplus with its major trading partners, most notably the United States. Based on the distinction between economies’ aggregate output and expenditure and on the premise that exchange rates are shared variables, it develops a straightforward framework that shows how exchange rate management by China's central bank affects China's fast growing output, expenditure, employment, and trade balance, while simultaneously influencing these aggregates in its slower growing industrialized trading partners. This framework reveals that under conditions of limited private capital mobility an inflexible yuan yields higher short-run output gains for China at trading partners’ expense through a form of “exchange rate protection.” At the same time exchange rate misalignment limits China's consumption and hence living standards. A misaligned currency is also shown to bias international saving and investment flows and is central to any explanation of global imbalances.     

中国对外贸易的劳动就业效应:贸易结构视角

文章旨在分析中国对外贸易结构变动在劳动就业以及城乡劳动力转移中产生的作用。文章认为中国对外贸易的发展有利于劳动就业水平的提升;对外贸易结构的改善有利于促进中国农村劳动力向城市转移,优化劳动就业结构;城乡劳动力转移,农村人口比重的降低,不能仅仅依靠农业的发展,而必须以第二、三产业发展为依托,不能单纯依靠经济规模的扩大和投资的增加,而需要通过产业结构调整,促进城乡联动;对外贸易劳动就业效应的可持续发挥需以经济增长和资本积累为基础;社会劳动就业的增长,就业结构的改善有利于促进经济增长和资本积累。     

The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone: Background,Developments and Preliminary Assessment of Initial Impacts

The China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone (SPFTZ) founded one year ago is a trial for China's new round of reform and opening up, which has promised liberalisation on the capital account and trade facilitation as its main objectives. Here, we discuss why China adopted such a pilot zone after three decades of economic development, and explore what the differences are between the SPFTZ and other free trade areas, and developments of the SPFTZ in the past year. We also make a preliminary assessment of the SPFTZ's initial impacts, especially of its impact on China's capital account opening and financial liberalisation. It is possible that the successful practice of the SPFTZ and more pilot policies replicated in China will give rise to a more balanced Chinese economy in the following decade.     

China's exports,export tax rebates and exchange rate policy

This paper examines the relationship between China's exports, export tax rebates and exchange rate policy. It offers an explanation for why China's exports continued to rise under RMB real appreciations during the Asian financial crisis. Based on a traditional export demand model, we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of China's export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime. We find evidence that RMB real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected China's exports, but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates. We also find evidence of a long‐run relationship between China's exports and the other explanatory variables. The empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments, real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve China's external imbalances. The policy implication of this study is that China needs to redirect its decades‐long export‐oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand‐oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market‐oriented more flexible exchange rate regime.     

中国制造业贸易的要素含量研究

本文应用贸易要素含量的研究方法,系统分析了1992-2002年中国的制造业贸易。研究发现,中国是低级技能劳动要素的丰裕国家,是资本和高级技能劳动要素的稀缺国家。相较于资本,中国更缺人才。不同产业部门之间,各类劳动要素分布存在巨大差异。10年间,中国所有要素禀赋都有较大改善,技术进步、贸易政策和存量积累三个因素对比较优势的变迁施加了不同的影响。其中,贸易结构日益向着密集出口低级技能劳动要素,同时更加依赖进口高级技能劳动要素和资本要素的方向演变,值得密切关注。     

Import Churning and Export Performance of Multi‐product Firms

This paper analyses the impact of churning in the imported varieties of capital and intermediate inputs on firm export scope and productivity. Using detailed data on imports and exports at the firm‐product‐market level, we document substantial churning in both imports and exports for Slovenian manufacturing firms in the period 1994–2008. On average, a firm changes about one‐quarter of imported and exported product‐markets every year, while gross churning in terms of added and dropped product‐markets is almost three times higher. A substantial share of this product churning is due to simultaneous imports and exports of firms in identical varieties within the same CN‐8 product code (so called pass‐on‐trade). We find that churning in imported varieties is far more important than reduction in tariffs or declines in import prices for firms’ productivity growth and increased export product scope. We also find gross churning has a bigger impact on firm productivity improvements by a factor of more than 10 in comparison with net churning. Both adding and dropping of imported input varieties thus seem to be of utmost importance for firms aiming to optimise their input mix towards their most valuable inputs. These effects are further enhanced when excluding simultaneous trade in identical varieties, suggesting that pass‐on‐trade has less favourable effects on firms’ long‐run performance than regular trade.     

China's foreign trade marketing strategy: Problems and prospects 1

It has been seven years since the open door policy was officially instituted by the People's Republic of China. During this time, changes have taken place within Chinese society and China's dealings with the rest of the world. In this paper, the authors evaluate the problems and prospects for China's foreign trade marketing strategy. They make recommendations in five policy areas: (1) export promotion; (2) the mix of exports; (3) a systems approach to trade; (4) joint ventures stressing value‐added labour and (5) the role of assembly technology. Each strategy is identified and discussed in terms of its future prospects in the development of China's trade.     

CAN THE POOR COUNTRIES CATCH UP? MIXED RESULTS FROM EXTENDED SOURCES OF GROWTH PROJECTIONS FOR THE EARLY 21st CENTURY

Illustrative projections of per capita income gaps between two groups of developing economies and the rich economies for the period 1998–2030 are made on the basis of an extended sources of growth equation which accounts for interactions between trends in capital and labor productivity. The equation takes into consideration Kaldor–Verdoorn effects, possible impacts on labor productivity of trade liberalization and/or astute industrial policy, human and physical capital accumulation, employment and population growth, shifting shares of labor in income and traded goods in output, shifts in capital productivity, productivity growth retardation due to convergence and specific regional effects. Under optimistic assumptions about all these factors and in the historically unprecedented absence of adverse macroeconomic shocks over three decades, relative and absolute convergence of both regions to the rich countries may be possible.     

The spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock: Evidence from B&R countries

This paper examines the international spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock on macro and financial variables in 26 countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) from 2000 to 2019. We find that a surprise Chinese monetary tightening brings about a widening in the short-term interest rate spread, a drop in the equity price, nominal depreciation against the RMB and real depreciation, and an improvement in the trade balance, on average, across the 26 B&R countries. Moreover, substantial heterogeneous effects emerge in the responses of the foreign real exchange rate and the trade balance in different groups in terms of the 26 countries' trade weights with China, capital openness, and national income levels. Finally, all the empirical evidence reveals that the expenditure switching effect plays an important role in facilitating the international transmission of China's monetary policy shock.