On necessarily welfare-enhancing free trade areas

The well-known Kemp-Vanek-Ohyama-Wan proposition establishes that if two or more countries form a customs union (CU) by freezing their net external trade vector through a common external tariff and eliminating internal trade barriers, the union as a whole and the rest of the world cannot be worse off than before. Owing to the fact that a Free Trade Area (whose member countries impose country specific external tariff vectors) does not equalize marginal rates of substitution across its member countries (in contrast to a CU), the literature has been unable to provide a parallel demonstration regarding welfare improving Free Trade Areas (FTAs). The present paper eliminates this gap. In extending the result to the case with intermediate inputs, the paper also sheds new light on the rules of origin required to support such necessarily welfare enhancing FTAs. We show here that provided no trade deflection is permitted, all that is required by way of rules of origin is that the goods produced within the union - whether final or intermediate - be allowed to be traded freely. The proportion of domestic value added in final goods does not enter as a criterion in the rules of origin.     

Real GDP, real domestic income, and terms-of-trade changes

Real GDP tends to underestimate the increase in real domestic income and welfare when the terms of trade improve. An improvement in the terms of trade is similar to a technological progress, but when computing real GDP, the national accounts treat the former as a price phenomenon and the latter as a real event. Calculations for 26 countries show that the divergence can add up to more than 10% of GDP in less than two decades. Our analysis has a solid theoretical foundation, being based on the GNP/GDP function approach to modeling the production sector of an open economy.     

不完全竞争下区际贸易政策选择

大国的国内区际贸易可以为该国产业和企业在国际市场提供竞争力支撑。我国作为一个大国,区际贸易因贸易壁垒的广泛存在而受阻,难以为我国产业和企业在国际市场提供竞争力支撑。本文分析了不完全竞争产业区际贸易壁垒存在的经济驱动力,其基本结论是:区际贸易壁垒不仅有利于本地区厂商在本地市场中获得较大的市场份额(即地方保护效应),而且还可以增加本地区厂商的利润(即利润转移效应),并增加本地区的福利;但当所有地方政府都采取贸易保护政策时,会导致所有区域福利水平的降低,从而导致一国整体国民福利的损失。这一结论为中央政府采取相应的措施协调国内区际贸易政策以消除国内市场分割提供了理论依据。     

National welfare in an open economy in the presence of foreign-owned factors of production

In the presence of foreign-owned factors of production in the economy, the effect of trade policy changes on national welfare needs to take into account the possible redistributive effect between foreign-owned and domestic factors. Therefore, an otherwise welfare-improving trade liberalization may paradoxically worsen national welfare. This paper analyzes this important, new area of trade theory and establishes the condition under which this paradox of immiserizing trade liberalization arises. The analysis is also applicable to analyzing the effects of external tariff variation in customs unions, with full internal factor mobility, on member countries' welfare.     

我国运用“合规性”贸易壁垒的政治经济分析

“合规性”贸易壁垒是保护本国产业和市场的有效手段,但是如果运用不当也会损害国家的政治和经济利益,通过建立适合我国的“合规性”贸易壁垒的政治经济模型,并对模型进行详细分析,研究发展中国家如何对“合规性”贸易壁垒进行合理的运用,以达到政治利益和经济利益的统一。     

中国国内服务贸易规则体系完善的建议

随着互联网、大数据的发展,国际服务贸易在全球价值链中的地位日益提升,与货物贸易一并构成两大贸易支柱。GATS作为第一部世界服务贸易框架性规则,对服务贸易的发展和顺畅运行做出了巨大贡献,但是其保护程度和开放程度已逐渐难以适应当前服务贸易的发展。多哈回合的停滞不前导致CPTPP等大型自由贸易协定相继产生,使得国际服务贸易规则有了进一步发展。中国服务贸易规则体系是中国调整国际服务贸易关系的法律集合,作为国际贸易法的国内渊源,中国国内服务贸易规则对于适应服务贸易发展现状和衔接国际服务贸易规则有着重要作用,本文即是通过分析国内服务贸易规则的现状及不足,并在借鉴CPTPP的基础上,提出建议。     

Rue the ROOs: Rules of origin and the gains (or losses) from trade agreements

ABSTRACT

This article provides three-good, three-country examples of trade in both intermediate inputs and final goods. These show the adverse effects that rules of origin (ROOs) can have, even in a world where every country has a free trade agreement (FTA) with every other country. ROOs may cause ubiquitous FTAs to yield a level of welfare, for everyone, that is worse than if there were no FTAs at all, and all trade were subject to common nondiscriminatory tariffs. Thus, the move to an ever increasing number of FTAs may be reducing world welfare.     

国际贸易政策中的原产地规则——文献综述

20世纪90年代以来,世界各国日益倾向于通过缔结或参加区域贸易安排(RTA)以实现区域内自由贸易来加快本国经济的发展和福利的改善。原产地规则作为一种重要的贸易管理措施,是决定RTA能否顺利实现的一个关键性问题。本文对原产地规则的主要理论研究和实证分析进行了归纳和对比,并指出进一步研究和拓展的方向。     

加工贸易在我国经济发展中的前景分析

随着改革开放的不断深入,我国加工贸易不断发展壮大,目前已涉及到我国绝大部分产业,在拉动国民经济健康发展、推动国内配套产业发展、促进国内产业结构调整和技术进步、利用内外资方面发挥了积极作用。但加工贸易在发展的同时,也存在着一些问题,造成我国外贸依存度过高,冲击国内相关原料工业的发展,加剧国际间贸易摩擦,走私问题比较普遍等。文章提出,我国加工贸易升级要抓住国际产业转移的机遇,处理好与产业结构调整、区域协调发展和引资量质并举的关系,突破传统监管观念,重视社会责任,提高加工增值含量,并发挥政府管理部门的管理效能。     

论原产地规则在反规避中的运用

原产地规则与反规避密切相关,反规避的有效开展有赖于对原产地规则的运用。考察欧美等国原产地规则在反规避中的运用,分析我国原产地规则和反规避立法的现状以及我国企业频繁遭受反规避调查的特点和原因,提出我国应将原产地规则的完善放在首位,待时机成熟后再完善现有的反规避法律。针对目前我国原产地规则存在的缺陷,认为对国产产品应制定更高的原产地标准,而对加工贸易产品应实行有区别的原产地标准。针对我国频繁遭遇反规避调查的现状,提出我国企业要吃透主要出口国特别是欧美关于反规避的相关规定,合理地回避反规避调查,避免不必要的贸易摩擦。     

美国钢铁贸易保护争端及其对世界经济贸易的影响

美国钢铁保障措施的出台是经济衰退期外贸政策保护主义倾向进一步加强的具体表现。作为WTO成员，美国按国内法201条款实施的钢铁保障措施必须符合WTO保障措施规则。但美国钢铁保障措施即使符合WTO规则，也是通过损害其钢铁贸易伙伴正当利益来追求本国利益最大化。因此，在全球贸易体制约束下，美国的行为必然引起各相关方与美国之间运用全球贸易规则的利益博弈，并由此对世界经济贸易产生重大影响。     

自由贸易协定原产地规则调整的经济效应评估——以《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则为例

本文使用2011—2019年美国汽车市场数据,测度了1354款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性,在识别了原产地规则限制度对合规车型售价影响的基础上,反事实模拟测算了《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则调整的经济效应。研究发现:(1)美国汽车市场上各款车型的需求价格弹性和替代弹性是异质性的;(2)以北美区域价值含量为代理变量的原产地规则与美国汽车市场上合规车型售价呈正向相关关系,与不合规车型售价呈U型关系;(3)《美墨加协定》汽车原产地规则限制度的提升,会对需要调整采购决策以继续合规的车型销量产生负向冲击,其他车型受市场替代效应的影响,其销量有所增加;(4)原产地规则调整降低了对北美自由贸易区外汽车中间品的需求,提升了对区内汽车中间品的需求。     

Optimal Rules of Origin with Asymmetric Compliance Costs under International Duopoly

We examine the optimal rules of origin (ROO) in a free trade area/agreement (FTA) by employing a stylized three-country partial equilibrium model of an international duopoly. We incorporate compliance costs of the ROO into the model. In particular, compliance costs are higher for a firm located in a non-member country of the FTA than for a firm (an internal firm) located in an FTA member country, whereas marginal production costs are lower for the former. The FTA member countries set the optimal level of ROO to maximize their joint welfare. An importing country within the FTA imposes tariffs on imports that do not comply with the ROO. We show that the optimal ROO may have a protectionist bias in the sense that they are set for only the internal firm to comply. ROO may also cause low utilization of FTAs when they are set such that even the internal firm does not comply with them. These cases arise depending on parameter values.     

中国参与区域服务贸易自由化机制与对策研究

中国对外签订区域服务贸易协议的对象多数来自于亚洲和拉美的发展中经济体,呈现出从"货物先行"向"货服并行"转变的趋势。在区域服务贸易自由化机制设计方面,中国引入了四大创新因素:服务贸易规则和投资规则"分立"构架且各自的适用范围界定明确;尝试构建服务贸易紧急保障制度;设置更加严格的服务贸易政策审议机制;针对特定缔约对象采取相对宽泛的服务原产地规则。中国应该从国内规制改革和服务部门开放顺序选择方面做好战略谋划与策略应对。     

The Welfare Loss of the Voluntary Export Restraint For Japanese Automobiles

The welfare loss from the voluntary export restraint (VER) on Japanese automobiles was estimated for the first year of the VER (April 1, 1981 to March 31, 1982). The impact of quantity reductions on the price of Japanese and domestic automobiles was used to estimate the welfare loss. Losses were estimated separately for the domestic small car market and the Japanese market in view of the existence of product differentiation. Welfare losses ranged from $446 million to $1,386 million depending on the price elasticity of demand assumed for Japanese automobiles. The welfare loss for domestic automobiles accounted for only a small proportion of this loss. The VER had a minor impact on the domestic automobile industry where sales remained low due to general economic conditions and limited substitutability between domestic and Japanese cars. However, the limited assistance provided by the VER to the domestic automobile industry entailed considerable costs as demonstrated by the magnitude of the welfare loss. A considerable part of this loss could have been avoided if other forms of trade protection such as tariffs had been used instead of the VER.     

商贸流通服务业影响力实证分析

重新认识和充分发挥商贸流通服务业的影响力已成为新世纪国内外关注的重大前沿问题,更是践行科学发展观、转变发展方式、落实中央一系列战略意图的全局性问题。商贸流通服务业影响力是商贸流通服务业直接贡献和间接贡献(外溢效应或外部性)的总称。以往商贸流通服务业影响力被低估,与忽视其溢出效应有直接关系。商贸流通服务业的外溢效应对于提高国民经济运行质量、优化国民经济流程、调整国民经济结构、扩大国内需求、增进社会总福利等全局性的潜移默化的影响能力,可能远远大于它所提供的直接贡献,低估这种外溢效应是长期以来"重生产、轻流通"的真正原因之一。     

Do trade policy differences induce sorting? Theory and evidence from Bangladeshi apparel exporters

This paper provides a new heterogeneous firm model for trade where firms differ in their productivity and experience different market demand shocks. The model incorporates the variations in trade policy, trade preferences, and the rules of origin needed to obtain them that are faced by Bangladeshi garment exporters to the US and EU. We estimate firm's productivity using an extension of the Olley Pakes procedure that accounts for the biases arising from both demand shocks and productivity being unobserved. Predictions of the model are then tested non-parametrically and are shown to be supported empirically.     

Trade, demand spillovers, and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective

In this paper, we investigate international demand spillovers brought about by a global middle class and their impact on trade patterns and industrialization. We propose a multi-industry and two-country trade model featuring demand complementarities propagating increasing returns across industries and national boundaries. We show how the international extent of demand spillovers depends upon asymmetries in domestic income distribution, labor efficiency, and labor force size; that is, on the global distribution of real income.     

Trade,demand spillovers,and industrialization: The emerging global middle class in perspective

In this paper, we investigate international demand spillovers brought about by a global middle class and their impact on trade patterns and industrialization. We propose a multi-industry and two-country trade model featuring demand complementarities propagating increasing returns across industries and national boundaries. We show how the international extent of demand spillovers depends upon asymmetries in domestic income distribution, labor efficiency, and labor force size; that is, on the global distribution of real income.     

我国面对的技术性贸易壁垒对策分析

随着关税壁垒作用的减弱,技术性贸易壁垒在贸易壁垒中的比重增加,技术性贸易壁垒在国际贸易的各个领域延伸,技术性贸易壁垒已成为各国限制外国商品进口的一项重要措施,对当今的国际贸易产生了不同的影响,尤其是技术水平低的发展中国家受到技术性贸易壁垒的影响更加严重。针对我国遭受技术性壁垒的限制所造成的损失,我国应在WTO规则允许的范围运用技术标准措施,在保护我国经济的同时,使我国众多出口企业摆脱技术壁垒困境。