The disintegrating Canadian labour market? The extent of the market then and now

Abstract.  Analysis of real wages for three occupations in 13 Canadian cities for 1901–50 suggests Canada had a national labour market at least until 1950. However, analysis of real wages for 10 Canadian cities for 1971–2000 yields little evidence favouring integration of Canada's regional labour markets. The apparent lack of labour market integration reflects a weakness of an approach that assumes markets are in equilibrium. Unemployment rates after 1970 suggest that some regional markets may be characterized by excess labour supply. Analysis of relative provincial unemployment rates yields evidence consistent with local labour force adjustment to changing labour market conditions. JEL classification: E24, J61     

The role of social capital in the labour market in China1

Social capital is considered to play an economic role in labour markets. It may be particularly pertinent in one that is in transition from an administered to a market‐oriented system. One factor that may determine success in the underdeveloped Chinese labour market is thus guanxi, the Chinese variant of social capital. With individual‐level measures of social capital, we test for the role of guanxi using a dataset designed for this purpose, covering 7,500 urban workers and conducted in early 2000. The evidence is consistent with the basic hypothesis. Both measures of social capital – size of social network and Communist Party membership – have significant and substantial coefficients in the income functions. Social capital can have influence either in an administered system or in one subject to market forces. It appears to do so in both parts of the labour market.     

Exchange rate fluctuations and labour market adjustments in Canadian manufacturing industries

We estimate the link between exchange rate fluctuations and the labour input of Canadian manufacturing industries. The analysis is based on a dynamic model of labour demand and the econometric strategy employs a panel two‐step approach for cointegrating regressions. Our data are drawn from a panel of 20 manufacturing industries from the KLEMS database and cover a long sample period that includes all cycles of appreciation and depreciation of the Canadian dollar over the last 50 years. Our results indicate that exchange rate fluctuations have significant long‐term effects on the labour input of Canada's manufacturing industries, especially for trade‐oriented industries, but that these long‐term impacts materialize very gradually following shocks.     

The role of social networks in determining migration and labour market outcomes

This paper empirically examines social network explanations for migration decisions in the context of German reunification. Using longitudinal data from the German Socio‐Economic Panel, we first show that the presence of a family in West Germany is an important predictor for the migration hazard rate of East Germans. We then explore whether pre‐migration networks have a discernible impact on the economic and social assimilation of East German immigrants in West Germany. We find that East German immigrants are more likely to be employed and to hold higher paying jobs when socially connected to the West prior to emigrating.     

The great Canadian recovery: The impact of COVID-19 on Canada's labour market

The Canadian labour market experienced a period of unprecedented turmoil following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. We analyze the main changes using standard labour force statistics and new data on job postings. Envisaging a phase of temporary severing of employment relationships followed by a phase of more standard labour market search and matching, we use stock and flow data to understand key developments. We find dramatic changes in employment, unemployment and labour market attachment in the first few months of the pandemic and a broad though gradual recovery through to the end of 2021.     

Canadian regional labour market evolutions: a long-run restrictions SVAR analysis

Canada's high reliance on commodities can work against its constitutionally mandated goal of regional equity in economic development, while also inhibiting macroeconomic performance and limiting monetary policy effectiveness. Yet, flexible and integrated regional labour markets can help achieve both equity and macroeconomic goals. Therefore, this study examines the dynamics of Canadian provincial labour markets using a long-run restrictions structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. Labour market fluctuations are decomposed into the parts arising from shocks to labour demand (new jobs), labour supply through migration (new people) and internal labour supply (original residents). The results suggest that demand innovations primarily underlie provincial labour market fluctuations. Despite significant geographic and language barriers that could impede their performance, there also is little overall evidence to suggest that provincial labour markets are more sluggish or less flexible than US state labour markets. Finally, original residents benefit slightly more from increased provincial labour demand compared to findings for US states.     

The market for labour in Israel

Using annual observations for 1960–89, a complete economic model of the Israel labour market is estimated in which the demand for labour varies inversely with real wages, participation varies directly with the real wages and real wages are explained by a phillips curve in which the natural rate of unemployment is a variable. The model suggests that while wages are far from flexible, unemployment shocks die away fairly rapidly. we were unable to model the behaviour of public sector pay and employment.     

The British youth labour market in crisis

The paper argues that the British youth labour market is in a crisis with employment falling, unemployment and long-term unemployment rising rapidly. In section one the paper reviews the evidence and, in particular, looks at alternative measures of unemployment duration. Section two discusses various explanations for the growth of youth unemployment and dismisses the view that it is due to the increase in relative wages of young people. It is argued that the youth labour market has several distinctive features that make it more sensitive to cyclical fluctuations. Section three takes a brief look at various policies to alleviate the problem. Section four concludes the paper stressing that a reflation of the economy is necessary to make a significant impact on youth unemployment.     

Wages and productivity: the role of labour market institutions in OECD countries

In the context of a monetary union, to keep a territorial equilibrium in terms of economic activity and employment, the relationship between real wages and productivity is crucial. In this paper, empirical evidence about the response of wages to productivity is obtained for 20 OECD countries and the role of labour market institutions to explain differences in this response is analysed.     

The division of labour and market structure

Most firms produce most of the time under conditions of substantial economies of scale. The division of labour, according to Adam Smith the mainspring of wealth, is intrinsically an economies of scale phenomenon. Market structure in most industries in characterized by a small number of suppliers and a larger number of customers. I explain this law of small numbers as the equilibrium of two forces: the deconcentration effect of imitation and the market spliting effect of further refinements in the division of labour by innovation. A deconcentrated market creates larger incentives for market splitting (product differentiation) by innovation than a concentrated market. But market splitting raises concentration in the market and it raises the number of different markets in the economy. Before the economies of scale of old products are fully exploited, new products are being offered which again are produced under conditions of economies of scale.     

The minimum wage and the Lithuanian labour market

This paper presents a comprehensive and non‐standard labour market analysis based on univariate and multivariate models for wages. The novelty of this paper lies in the use of non‐normalized cointegrating vectors for labour market analysis. Wages are the basis of labour market models, as well as the key factor for employees and employers; therefore, the central analytical axis is a classical wage bargaining process, where one side requires and the other side proposes a certain level of wages. Analysis is divided into two parts: foremost, a careful analysis of Lithuanian wages is conducted and a univariate model for the investigation of interactions between the minimum wage and the rest of the wages is proposed; only after the minimum wage model is drafted can the multivarate model for the whole economy be built up. Briefly, the methodology used in this article can be annotated as a synthesis of sequential theoretical and empirical considerations that combine the results of theoretical macroeconomics with data‐generating patterns and stylized facts. The model is considered as the final one only if macro‐theory preconditions, statistical prerequisites, and stylized real‐world requirements are met and fulfilled. In addition, this article gives an example and a quantitatively, as well as qualitatively, motivated suggestion as to how to incorporate minimum wages into econometric models and puts forward an explanation for why it is necessary to include minimum wage dynamics into labour market analysis. The article is nothing but an empirical case study that demonstrates how many minor details have to be taken into account until a realistic labour market model is built up. Although the paper deals with the labour market, the suitable application of time series methods is the main subject of the analysis.     

The labour market effects of financial crises

This paper examines how the 2008–2009 financial crisis affected labour markets in Europe, and how this impact depended on employment protection laws. Using a difference‐in‐differences approach, our estimates isolate the effect of the lack of credit on the labour market from that of the general decline in aggregate economic activity. We find large and negative impacts of the credit shock on total employment, particularly on temporary, unskilled and young workers. These impacts were significantly larger in countries with stronger legal protection of permanent workers from dismissal. This suggests that the differential impact of the crisis across countries was not entirely driven by the heterogeneity of the credit shock, but also by labour regulations. Given regulatory inflexibility in adjusting the permanent workforce, firms responded to tightening financial constraints by disproportionately laying off temporary workers (who tend to be younger and less skilled than permanent workers).     

Low-wage mobility in the Portuguese labour market

Low-wage employment has become a matter of concern in many countries, Portugal being among them. In particular, the extent to which low-wage employment is a permanent or transitory situation is an important issue. This paper examines low-wage mobility in the Portuguese labour market using the bivariate probit model proposed by van de Ven and van Praag (1981), in order to account for the potential endogeneity of the initial state. For this purpose, we use a matched employer-employee panel data for 1996 and 2000. Raw figures show that a significant number of workers are trapped into low-wage employment. We also find that males and the better-educated are more likely to escape from such a situation. Furthermore, initial firm characteristics, such as firm size, age and industry influence mobility. In particular, low-wage workers in larger or in newer firms have better mobility prospects.JEL Classification: J31, J42Financial support from the Portuguese Science Foundation and FEDER under grant POCTI/ECO/37668/2001 is acknowledged. The author is indebted to an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Weight discrimination in the German labour market

We explore the effects of higher body mass index (BMI) or obesity on different labour market outcomes. We extend the present literature by investigating the effect of obesity on (i) promotion likelihood and (ii) unemployment duration, in addition to the effect on (iii) wages and (iv) probability of being employed. We find an obesity penalty on wages, employment likelihood, promotion likelihood and unemployment duration among females in Germany taking into account of endogeneity of BMI and sample selection. We are also able to identify an unexplained effect of obesity on wages, employment and promotion likelihood for females using decomposition techniques that can be attributed to weight discrimination.     

Offshoring, labour market institutions and the elasticity of labour demand

This paper analyses the evolution of the elasticity of labour demand and the possible role of offshoring therein using industry-level data for a large number of OECD countries. The first main finding is that the wage elasticity of labour demand has increased substantially since 1980, although some of this increase may reflect a trend increase in the speed of adjustment rather than an increase in the long-run wage elasticity. The evidence on the potential contribution of offshoring to raising labour demand elasticity is mixed. No association is found between increases in offshoring and demand elasticity during the second half of the 1990s, but there is a significant cross-sectional association between higher average offshoring intensity during this period and higher demand elasticity. We also find some evidence that strict employment protection legislation weakens the cross-sectional association between offshoring and higher labour demand elasticity, suggesting that the relationship between offshoring and the labour demand elasticity may depend on the national institutional environment.     

The Beveridge curve and labour market dynamics in Turkey

This article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and vacancy rates in Turkey during the period 1951 to 2008 by means of a Beveridge Curve (BC). The time-series analysis of unemployment and vacancies as well as two other relevant labour market variables, real wages and real labour productivity, strongly suggests inefficiency in the Turkish labour market. A stable long-run relationship between unemployment rate and vacancy rate is found for Turkey, that is, the existence of a negatively sloped BC is verified. The estimated Turkish BC reflects the structural problems and lack of flexibility in the labour market. The modified BC with real wages and labour productivity reveals that labour productivity has no significant effect on unemployment rate whereas wages have positive and significant effects on the same variable.     

Labour market institutions and labour market performance

This paper studies the relationship between labour market institutions and policies and labour market performance using a new and unique dataset that covers the countries of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which in the last two decades experienced radical economic and institutional transformations. We document a clear trend towards liberalization of labour markets, especially in the countries of the former Soviet Union, but also substantial differences across the countries studied. Our econometric analysis implies that institutions matter for labour market outcomes, and that deregulation of labour markets improves their performance. The analysis also suggests several significant interactions between different institutions, which are in line with the idea of beneficial effects of reform complementarity and broad reform packages.     

Labour market reform and the macroeconomic efficiency of the labour market in Australia

This paper assesses the effects of a decade and a half of labourmarket reform in Australia on labour market flexibility at themacroeconomic level. Increased labour market flexibility isinterpreted as reduced structural unemployment and enhancedefficiency of matching. We use shifts in the Beveridge Curveas a measure of changes in labour market efficiency (followingSolow, R., What is labour-market flexibility? What is it goodfor?, Keynes Lecture, British Academy, London, December, 1997).Time series analysis of unemployment, vacancies and other relevantvariables strongly suggests that changes in the efficiency oflabour market matching over the period reflect the cyclicaleffects of hysteresis rather than the effects of labour marketreform.     

Caste discrimination in the Indian urban labour market

This, the pioneering quantitative analysis of caste in the Indian urban labour market, examines the age-old problem of caste in the light of discrimination theory and government policy. Using a survey of workers in Delhi, the gross wage difference between ‘scheduled’ (untouchable) and ‘non-scheduled’ caste is decomposed into its ‘explained’ and ‘discrimination’ components and, from a model of occupation choice, into wage- and job-discrimination. Discrimination is found to exist, and to operate at least in part through the traditional mechanism, viz. assignment to jobs, with the scheduled castes entering poorly-paid ‘dead-end’ jobs. It is assisted by methods of recruitment based on contacts, prevalent in the manual occupation, which also cause past discrimination to carry over to the present. Its practice serves the economic interests of those who exercise a taste for discrimination.