监管改革对国际银行业的影响与中国的应对策略

从逆周期、宏观审慎角度加强监管是危机后的共识。监管改革使全球银行业将面临资本充足率下降、融资需求巨大,融资成本被推高的难题。从中长期来看,银行还将面临贷款增长疲软的境况,中间业务将是未来盈利关键,业务模式将回归简单化和本土化等。然而,巴塞尔Ⅲ没有触及金融危机发生的根本制度性原因,即以美元货币为主导的货币体制引发的经济失衡,没有解决宏观审慎和微观审慎之间的监管协调问题,对于跨境金融监管合作和混业监管问题也还没有提出有效的措施。为应对改革对银行业产生的长期结构性影响,中国政府可考虑创新融资方式,建立资本保险机制、允许资产证券化等举措,为中国银行业资本募集创造良好的条件,中国银行业则须从成本缩减、业务模式转换、重新考量流动性等方面全面应对。     

一个产业与一座城市的未来

大连试图通过发展软件产业和信息服务业,走一条低消耗、无污染、高产出、高科技密度、高信息密度的产业道路。如果大连能够在软件产业方面走出一条道路,那么对中国走新型工业化道路,无疑是提供了一个借鉴。大连想做一个探索。     

Hardball. Five killer strategies for trouncing the competition

The winners in business play hardball, and they don't apologize for it. They single-mindedly pursue competitive advantage and the benefits it offers: a leading market share, great margins, and rapid growth. They pick their shots, seek out competitive encounters, set the pace of innovation, and test the edges of the possible. Softball players, by contrast, may look good--they may report decent earnings and even get favorable coverage in the business press--but they aren't intensely serious about winning. They don't accept that you must sometimes hurt your rivals, and risk being hurt, to get what you want. Instead of running--not scared, but smart--softball players seem almost to be standing around and watching. They don't play to win; they play to play. That approach may reflect the recent focus of management science, which itself has gone soft. Indeed, the discourse around soft issues such as leadership, corporate culture, knowledge management, talent management, and employee empowerment has encouraged the making of softball players. While there are countless ways to play hardball, a handful of classic strategies are effective in generating competitive advantage. Best employed in bursts of ruthless intensity, these strategies are: Devastate rivals' profit sanctuaries, plagiarize with pride, deceive the competition, unleash massive and overwhelming force, and raise competitors' costs. But hardball isn't only about the moves you make. It's also about the attitude you bring to them. The playbook won't do you any good if you feel squeamish about using it. Do you have what it takes to play hardball?     

要关注保险行业的边缘化倾向

从1980年全面恢复国内保险业务以来,保险业务收入以年均30%的增幅高速增长。但由于保险行业长期以来过度关注保险业务收入数据,在发展过程中忽略了保险业务收入的内涵,导致保险业务收入高速增长的同时,保险行业对于社会应当承担的经济补偿和民生保障的职能在弱化,每逢有大灾大难,本应有突出表现的保险业却经常集体失语,保险行业出现边缘化的倾向,如,保险业过度关注保险业务增长、非寿险业务发展缓慢、财产保险业务的滞后等。     

财产保险费率市场化的生成机制研究

我国财产保险费率市场化经历了管制——解除管制——管制三个阶段,目前,费率市场化的生成机制仍未形成。本文从财产保险定价的特殊性出发,探讨财产保险费率市场化应具备的特殊条件,以及促使上述条件得以生成的机制,并对费率市场化的两种生成机制进行比较分析,提出我国下一步费率政策改革的建议。     

信用卡销售代理行业的终局

2009年5月5日,中国人民银行颁布了<加强银行卡安全管理、预防和打击银行卡犯罪的通知>[银发(2009)142号].<通知>规定"发卡机构不得将信用卡发卡营销业务外包"的规定,为本已开始走向衰落的信用卡销售代理行业画上了一个并不圆满的句号.信用卡销售代理行业在经历了十年的盲目发展,特别是在近几年无序及近乎疯狂地扩张之后,随着银行对信用卡发卡营销业务外包的刹车而无奈地走向了今天的终结.     

论我国信用保险业的经济周期管理

本文尝试从经济周期的角度看待本轮危机给我国信用保险行业带来的启示。首先研究了经济周期性波动中信用风险水平的变化,进而引申说明经济周期对信用保险行业的市场需求和风险水平都具有深刻的影响。其次,提出了信用保险行业要在经济的周期性波动中保持稳定经营必须面对的挑战,其中特别说明了官方支持的信用保险机构的独特之处。最后,对我国信用保险机构如何开展经济周期管理提出了若干建议。     

Retiree health care benefits: strategies for a changing workforce.

Demographic, economic and cultural trends foretell a dramatically different environment for retiree health care coverage. This article will focus on the redesign of retiree health benefits to meet the retirement objectives of employers and employees, anticipate changing demographics, and respond to changes in Medicare and other government initiatives, including the Consumer Bill of Rights. The material will discuss recent design trends, including managed care, and present results of a study the author co-authored for the Kaiser Family Foundation on changes in retiree health plans.     

基于期权的保险行业创新保护机制研究

本文基于期权的理论建立了保险产品的创新价值模型,从理论上解释了保险企业创新搭便车的现象,同时针对中国保险业的现状提出创新保护机制下的修正模型。通过实例模拟了现有制度和创新保护机制下创新企业和跟随企业的预期收益,在两类企业收益成本平衡的基础上得出有效的约束系数,证明了本模型的实用性。为从制度上推动保险行业创新和发展提供了一个新思路。     

Deregulation and earnings management: The case of the U.S. airline industry

This paper examines earnings management dynamics in the airline industry during the airline industry deregulation of 1978. We expect that earnings management would increase after deregulation, since industry deregulation generally increases managerial discretion, whereas internal corporate governance systems are sluggish in adapting to newly changed environments. As corporate governance structures become more effective in tempering highly discretionary managers, and as capital markets learn more about how to design better management incentive systems, managers’ incentives and capacity to engage in earnings management will diminish. Based on industry data, we find that the magnitude of absolute values of discretionary accruals increase significantly in the post-deregulation period. Managers in the airline industry were inclined to engage in income increasing earnings management after deregulation. However, the increased level of earnings management then decreased to return close to the level seen during the regulation period. The findings support the predicted deregulation impact on earnings management dynamics.     

论保险电销渠道与传统渠道的整合

在保险产品日趋同质的背景下,保险营销渠道成为国内保险公司竞争的焦点。与传统渠道相比,保险的电销模式具有不同于传统渠道的特征,电话销售渠道正在快速地发展。目前电销渠道与传统渠道的隔绝产生了矛盾,造成保险公司资源的浪费,也不利于电销模式的持续健康发展。未来的发展趋势必然是各种销售渠道的整合,本文进一步提出了电销渠道与其他渠道有效整合的具体思路。     

中国财产保险业巨灾损失赔付能力实证研究

中国社会已步入一个历史性的风险高度累积的发展阶段,在这样的环境中,以损失补偿为主要功能的财产保险业是否有足够的损失赔付能力就成为一个不能不考虑的重要问题。本文基于Cummins,Doherty和Anita(2002)的保险赔付能力度量模型,引入1998年～2007年中国保险业经营数据,在改进后的损失对数正态分布假设下,对2007年年末时点上在中国大陆经营财产保险业务的39家保险公司以及全行业整体巨灾损失赔付能力进行了实证分析。结果显示,在800亿到2000亿元的巨灾损失区间内,中国财产保险业的赔付效率在68.36%以上,全行业巨灾赔付能力缺口巨大,且损失幅度越大短缺的幅度越大。本文认为,造成这种赔付能力短缺的主要原因在于全行业资本与盈余的低水平以及再保险市场发展的严重滞后。     

The role of the PBM in total health management strategies for individuals with chronic conditions

In this article, we examine the multiple data sources and outcomes surrounding the management of both pharmacy and medical cost spending for chronic health care in one pharmacy benefit manager (PBM). We offer examples of how the complex relationship between interventions and spending is utilized in order to bring value to PBMs' clients above and beyond the scope of traditional pharmacy trend analytics. Additionally, we demonstrate how the implementation of disease management programs can effectively impact the largest component of total health care costs.     

Accounting for organizational performance: The construction of the customer in the privatized water industry

The concept of the customer exercising market power to obtain the desired combination of attributes in terms of price and quality of the product to be purchased has been integral to the Conservative Government's justification of privatization. However the practical import of giving effect to customer sovereignty was problematic if it was not accompanied by an increase in competition and choice for customers. This is particularly true of the recently privatized Water industry, where the monopoly character of the industry has remained unaltered. To give effect to its claims that customers would benefit, and to prevent overcharging and to protect standards of service, the Government had to introduce a new regulatory system operated by the Office of Water Services (Ofwat). In pursuing these objectives the Director General of Ofwat has stated that his aim is to secure for the customer a place that he/she would have were the companies operating in a competitive market. This paper, drawing on Miller and Rose's analysis of Governing economic life, examines the attempts that have been made to give effect to this “place for customers”. In doing so much of the analysis focuses on exploring how notions of “the customer”, and “customer service”, have been constructed through new forms of accounting and accountability, and how this new accounting for customer service has enabled the concept of “the customer” to be made operational within the newly privatized Water plcs, even though their monopoly status has remained unaltered. Central to this has been Ofwat's determination of performance indicators on levels of service to customers, its measurement of company performance against these indicators, and assessments based on these measures of companies' success in “serving customers”. The paper seeks to demonstrate how these new accounts of organizational performance required of the Water plcs by Ofwat have only been made possible by rendering “customer service” a calculable and comparable entity. The paper also looks at some of the ways in which this accounting for customer service has been incorporated into other accounts of managerial and organizational performance.     

Estimates of economic rates of return for the U.S. pharmaceutical industry, 1976–1987

Estimation procedures are designed to consider features of publicly-available financial accounting information which allegedly compromise its use to estimate economic internal rates of return. These procedures, which focus on cashflows rather than conventional accounting income measures, are used to investigate the relative profitability of the U.S. pharamaceutical industry. Results indicate that pharmceutical returns exceed returns for comparable U.S. industrial firms during the period encompassed by the study. Differences for these comparisons are substantially less than what is implied by an uniformed use of accounting information, however. In particular, differences in implied internal rates of return of 2.1% to 3.8%, whereas differences in accounting rates of return are 4.0% to 5.6%. Results are robust for a wide variety of assumptions about industry growth rates and investment payout profiles, characteristics which potentially cause accounting-based return measures to differ from underlying internal rates of return.     

The first steps towards harmonizing public sector accounting for European Union member states: strategies and perspectives

This paper analyses the process that led the European Commission to the decision to develop European Public Sector Accounting Standards (EPSAS) for harmonizing public sector accounting practices within the European Union. The paper finds that there was limited scope in terms of stakeholder participation in the public consultation that served as a basis for the decision. In addition, the decision to adopt EPSAS for EU member states raises questions on the relationship between regional and global governance in the area of public sector accounting.     

The deregulatory effects of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 on the broadcasting industry: Expectations vs. reality

The broadcasting industry experienced drastic deregulation with the passage of the Telecommunications Act of 1996. This study examines the capital market reactions to the passage of the Act and aftermath changes in profitability and efficiency in the broadcasting industry. This study finds that the deregulation, particularly relaxing the rules for broadcast ownership, had significant positive effects on stock returns for the broadcasting firms. Among them, firms focusing on broadcasting business and small television groups gained more from the deregulation in terms of increases in market value, as opposed to diversified and large television groups. The longitudinal analysis indicates that the profitability of broadcasting firms in terms of return on sales improved after the Act. This can mainly be attributed to broadcasting firm’s increased market power that resulted from increased industry concentration. Profitability in terms of return on assets, however, deteriorated after the Act, which can be attributed to decreased operating efficiency represented by asset turnover. We find no evidence that the deregulation improved the broadcasting industry’s efficiency of employees to generate sales. Our findings question the notion that the deregulation would help the industry to improve its operating efficiency by achieving economies of scale.     

The sales force as an information transfer mechanism for new service development in the Thai insurance industry

New service development (NSD) is becoming increasingly important as the insurance industry in many countries opens up and becomes more competitive. This paper examines how customer views are integrated into the NSD process in the Thai insurance industry. The qualitative research was conducted using in-depth interviews with top officers, sales managers, senior vice-presidents of marketing and actuary managers in a number of leading life insurance and non-life insurance companies. The interviews investigated how NSD works in the Thai industry, focusing on how customer views enter the process. The results showed that the NSD process in Thailand is not oriented towards developing truly innovative products, but there is much NSD for adaptation of products from other markets. Sales agents act as a main information transfer mechanism, bringing in customer views through the sales managers, who play a role in NSD. Lack of cross-functional teamwork can cause failure in developing new products and services.