Pricing of Forward and Futures Contracts

There has long been substantial interest in understanding the relative pricing of forward and futures contracts. This has led to the development of two standard theories of forward and futures pricing, namely, the Cost-of-Carry and the Risk Premium (or Unbiased Expectations) hypotheses. These studies have modelled the relationship between spot and forward/futures prices either through a no-arbitrage condition or a general equilibrium setting. Relatively few studies in this area have considered the impact of stochastic trends in the data. With the emergence of non-stationarity and cointegration in recent years, more sophisticated models of futures/forward prices have been specified. This paper surveys the significant contributions made to the literature on the pricing of forward/futures contracts, and examines recent empirical studies pertaining to the estimation and testing of univariate and systems models of futures pricing.     

高校节能监管平台建设现状及未来的发展趋势

本文阐述了高校节能监管平台建设现状并总结了常用的建设技术,分析了目前存在的问题并展望了监管平台未来的发展趋势。     

西方企业组织理论及其发展动态

企业组织理论对企业发展至关重要,把握西方企业组织的理论演进历程,不仅包括企业组织形式、组织理论,而且包括西方企业组织的理论流派以及当前动态等,对企业自身定位以及适应市场经济的变化与发展具有重要意义。     

改革开放以来中国经济增长动力转换的时空特征

基于中国1978~2012年的省级面板数据,采用检验后的超越对数生产函数的随机前沿模型,利用两套资本存量核算方法,对中国经济增长动力的来源及其时空特征进行分析,并对2008年金融危机的4万亿元投资政策进行了效率评价。研究结果表明,中国属于典型的投资主导型经济,资本投入是中国经济增长持续稳定的最主要来源,TFP贡献率呈现逐年下降的趋势;中国经济增长动力由改革开放初期的资本、劳动力和TFP三驾马车平衡拉动,形成了现阶段的资本投入与TFP反向角力态势;区域经济差距主要源于资本投入与TFP双重差异,但TFP差异是最重要因素;4万亿元经济刺激政策下中国经济复苏属于典型的“投资主导型复苏”,是以牺牲中国生产率为代价的,TFP在2008年后呈现断崖式下降,平均拉低中国TFP达0.23~0.32个百分点。     

20082014年家庭农场研究动态及展望——基于文献计量方法

为了对现阶段中国家庭农场研究的科研动态、前沿进展有更全面、更直观的把握,以推进家庭农场问题研究的进展,本文以中国知网（CNKI）期刊类数据库为研究平台,对2008²014年该库收录的家庭农场文献进行计量研究。研究发现:近7年研究文献由最初的20多篇急速增长到200多篇;《中国农村经济》、《管理世界》、《农业经济问题》等18种期刊是家庭农场研究影响力最大的刊源平台;引用率排名前4的文献所属期刊分别是《经济学家》、《改革》和《社会科学战线》,被广泛引用的文献在农村经济研究领域具有较高的学术价值;研究机构集中在粮食主产区,研究人员集中度不高,且影响力较强的文献集中度较低;研究热点主要为家庭农场发展内涵、国际经验、发展条件及路径等。     

中国官方汇率与黑市汇率的结构平稳性和联动性研究

本文试图检验人民币兑换美元的官方汇率和黑市汇率在1961年1月至2005年8月间的结构平稳性,并基于向量自回归(VAR)系统分析这两种汇率的Granger因果性和脉冲响应。同时,从对黑市外汇需求角度剖析了影响黑市名义汇率波动的因素,从而揭示了黑色汇市存在的关键原因。最后,就黑色汇市现状对官方汇市制度的影响进行了深刻反思。     

Dynamic advertising and pricing with constant demand elasticities

In this paper we analyze a stochastic dynamic advertising and pricing model with isoelastic demand. The state space is discrete, time is continuous and the planing horizon is allowed to be finite or infinite. A dynamic version of the Dorfman–Steiner identity will be derived. Explicit expressions of the optimal advertising and pricing policies, of the value function and of the optimal advertising expenditures will be given. The general results will be used to analyze the case of impatient customers. Furthermore, particular time inhomogeneous models and homogeneous ones with and without discounting will be examined. We will study the social efficiency of a monopolist's optimal policies and the consequences of specific subsidies. From a buyer's perspective, our analysis reveals that waiting – when looking at (immediate) expected prices – is never profitable should two or more units be available. But we will also prove that the sequence of average sales prices is monotone decreasing. Moreover, the techniques applied to solve the discrete stochastic advertising and pricing problem will be used to solve a related deterministic control problem with continuous state space.     

财务危机预警模型研究综述

随着当前市场环境的多变和国际竞争的加剧,企业不得不面临越来越大的风险和危机,而财务危机是企业危机中最显著、最综合的表现。财务危机预警问题已成为我国资本市场健康发展的重要因素,财务危机预警问题研究已成为当前的热点问题。国内外学者们分别对财务危机预警模型的研究进展进行了归纳、梳理和介绍,很有必要在此基础上对其进行比较、评价和分析。     

消防监督管理模式发展趋势研究

结合当前经济发展状况和社会制度,提出我国未来消防监督管理模式应主要从不断推进对政府职能、消防培训、消防宣传教育、社会人员的消防责任、中介组织等社会化进程入手,逐步建立起全方位多层次的消防监督管理模式,并在此基础上建立分级分类的专业化消防监督检查体系和消防监督检查的社会化模式。     

Time Series Analysis of Strategic Pricing Behavior in the US Airline Industry

A positive relationship betweencompetitive pressure and technical efficiency has been demonstratedby several studies; other studies hold forth that airline marketsbehave strategically. We bring these two literatures togetherby presenting a time series methodology to examine strategicpricing behavior and discussing the implications for airlineefficiency. We find evidence of dynamic, route-level, parallel( i.e. strategic) pricing despite highly variable price structures.A stable price relationship is consistent with successful coordinationof dynamic oligopolists and may highlight those routes wheresignificant market power exists. In light of previous research,this indicates that the airlines on these routes may not be attainingmaximum technical efficiency. For policy makers, this methodologyis useful for analyzing other markets which behave strategically.     

Corruption: A Review

As is increasingly recognised in academic literature and by international organisations, corruption acts as a major deterrent to growth and development. The aim of this survey is to organise and summarise existing theoretical and empirical work on corruption with a view to identifying opportunities for further research. The paper begins with a brief overview of key definitions of corruption, and then turns to a review of the factors that favour or deter the growth of corruption together with a brief look at related models. This is followed by an examination of the consequences of corruption for society, and the consideration of measures that might help to reduce corruption. The paper ends with suggestions for future research and includes summaries of data sources and key variables for use in this research.     

海伦市通肯河林场森林资源动态分析

利用1991年的森林资源调查与2006年的森林调查数据进行分析,找出其利弊,为以后提供更好的发展利用方向。     

论服饰色彩的伦理思想价值探究

服饰色彩作为一定社会伦理的外部表现,以自己特有的物质形式表现着这些伦理观念,从而以一定文化符号的形式构建了服饰色彩伦理的道德内容和价值体系。服饰色彩的这种真假区分、善恶评价、美丑取舍内在的规定了服饰色彩伦理的价值内容,从而对人们的着装心理、着装习惯产生重大影响。     

马克思主义中国化的历史文化渊源

本文从研究马克思主义同中国传统文化的关系入手,揭示了中国知识分子接受马克思主义理论的必然性,并进一步阐述了作为中国政治家的知识分子在传播运用马克思主义的同时使马克思主义逐步实现了中国化,成为指导中国革命和建设的科学理论。