Consumption effects of genetic modification: what if consumers are right?⋆

This paper develops a model of differentiated consumers to examine the consumption effects of genetic modification (GM) under alternative labelling regimes and segregation enforcement scenarios. Analytical results show that if consumers perceive GM products as being different than their traditional counterparts, GM affects consumer welfare and, thus, consumption decisions. When the existence of market imperfections in one or more stages of the supply chain prevents the transmission of cost savings associated with the new technology to consumers, GM results in welfare losses for consumers. The analysis shows that the relative welfare ranking of the ‘no labelling’ and ‘mandatory labelling’ regimes depends on: (i) the level of consumer aversion to GM products; (ii) the size of marketing and segregation costs under mandatory labelling; (iii) the share of the GM product in total production; and (iv) the extent to which GM products are incorrectly labelled as non‐GM products.     

A latent class approach to investigating demand for genetically modified banana in Uganda

This study explores consumer acceptance and valuation of a genetically modified (GM) staple food crop in a developing country prior to its commercialization. We focus on the hypothetical introduction of a disease‐resistant GM banana variety in Uganda, where bananas are among the most important staple crops. A choice experiment is used to investigate consumer preferences for various attributes related to the banana (such as bunch size, technology, producer benefit, and price) and examine their opinions on GM foodstuff. Choice data come from 421 banana‐consuming households randomly selected from three regions of Uganda. A latent class model is used to investigate the heterogeneity in consumers’ preferences for selected attributes related to the banana and to profile consumers who are more or less likely to accept GM bananas. Our results reveal that there is significant heterogeneity in consumer preferences across our sample. GM bananas are valued the most by poorer households located in the rural areas of the Eastern region. These food‐insecure households would experience the highest benefits (i.e., welfare gains) from the commercial release of GM bananas. In contrast, urban consumers are less accepting of GM bananas, and they would experience significant welfare losses if GM banana is released. According to our welfare estimates, both the total welfare benefits acquired by the gainers and the total welfare losses borne by the losers of this technology are significant and large. These results suggest the need for further investigation of the overall welfare effects of the introduction of GM bananas on the Ugandan society as a whole.     

Consumer willingness to pay for genetically modified food in Kenya

Genetically modified (GM) crops are popular in many regions of the world, but their deployment in Africa is hindered by safety concerns and regulatory issues, although the continent is in dire need of boosting its food production. Although consumers' acceptance of GM food has been analyzed in many continents, no such studies have been conducted in Africa. Therefore, a survey of 604 consumers was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, in 2003, to gauge consumers' awareness of GM crops, their willingness to pay (WTP) for GM food, and the factors that influence their WTP. Consumers' knowledge of GM crops was limited and only 38% of the 604 respondents were aware of GM crops. People in higher education and income groups were more aware than others. Regardless, people were generally appreciative of the technology, and a large majority (68%) would be willing to buy GM maize meal at the same price as their favorite brand. Consumers were, however, concerned about possible side effects, especially on the environment and biodiversity. WTP was estimated using a double‐bounded dichotomous choice model, and the mean WTP was found to be 13.8% higher than the average price of non‐GM maize meal. Perceptions of health risk, and ethical and equity concerns had a negative influence on the likelihood of purchasing GM maize meal, whereas trust in government to ensure food quality had a positive influence on WTP. People with at least some secondary education and those in the high‐income category were more likely to purchase GM maize meal at the same price. The study concludes that, because awareness is still low, appropriate communications are needed to involve the consumer in the debate. Consumers' acceptance in this study was high, but the research needs to be expanded to rural areas, where most consumers live, and other survey methods need to be explored.     

Comparative Advantage in Demand: Experimental Evidence of Preferences for Genetically Modified Food in the United States and European Union

The United States (US) exports more than US$6 billion in agricultural commodities to the European Union(EU) each year, but one issue carries the potential to diminish this trade: use of biotechnology in food production. The EU has adopted more stringent policies towards biotechnology than the US. Understanding differences in European and American policies towards genetically modified (GM) foods requires a greater understanding of consumers’ attitudes and preferences. This paper reports results from the first large‐scale, cross‐Atlantic study to analyse consumer demand for genetically modified food in a non‐hypothetical market environment. We strongly reject the frequent if convenient assumption in trade theory that consumer preferences are identical across countries: the median level of compensation demanded by English and French consumers to consume a GM food is found to be more than twice that in any of the US locations. Results have important implications for trade theory, which typically focuses on differences in specialization, comparative advantage and factor endowments across countries, and for on‐going trade disputes at the World Trade Organization.     

Differentiating the consumer benefits from labeling of GM food products

Although recurrent evidence is found that consumers have different willingness to pay for GM and non-GM products, there is disagreement in the scientific community about the size of consumer benefits from GM labeling. In this article we use a theoretical model based on a standard constant elasticity of substitution (CES) to explain the importance of the quality effect. It is shown that failing to consider the quality effect may yield an overestimation of benefits from GM labeling, voluntary or mandatory.     

Economic Effects of the Consumer‐oriented Genetically Modified Products in Markets with a Labelling Regime

This paper builds on the literature on the economic effects of the second‐generation, consumer‐oriented genetically modified products (GMPs). It analyses the market and welfare impacts of the introduction of these new products in markets, like the EU, that mandate the segregation and labelling of the first‐generation, producer‐oriented GMPs. Developing an empirically relevant model of heterogeneous consumers and producers, the study determines the effects of the consumer‐oriented GMPs on the markets of conventional, GM and organic products, and the welfare of consumers and agricultural producers. Analytical results indicate that the market effects of the new GMPs are case specific and depend on: (i) the consumer valuation of the quality‐enhancing attribute of the new GMP; (ii) the level of consumer aversion to GMOs; (iii) the strength of consumer preference for organic products; and (iv) the production costs and marketing margins in the different supply channels. The policy on the labelling of the first‐generation GMPs does not affect the impacts of the second‐generation GMPs on the quantities and market shares of the different products. However, it does affect their price effects and welfare implications. The introduction of consumer‐oriented GMPs under a mandatory labelling regime can result in losses for some GM consumers and all producers of the conventional product.     

Consumer Attitudes Towards GM Food

Abstract

To communicate effectively with consumers about genetically modified (GM) food, gaining insight in the formation of consumer attitude regarding GM food is essential. Therefore, the current paper first reviews relevant literature describing how consumer attitudes towards GM food are formed. Next, Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) is applied to own quantitative data to model the formation of consumer attitude towards GM food. Previous analysis of these quantitative data led to the identification and characterisation of four consumer segments (Halfhearted, Green Opponents, Balancers and Enthusiasts) based on beliefs and attitudes towards GM food. Based on the SEM results, recommendations are formulated for each of the four identified consumer segments.     

Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences for Nanotechnology and Genetic‐modification Technology in Food Products

This study investigates heterogeneous consumer preferences for nanofood and genetically‐modified (GM) food and the associated benefits using the results of choice experiments with 1,117 US consumers. We employ a latent class logit model to capture the heterogeneity in consumer preferences by identifying consumer segments. Our results show that nano‐food evokes fewer negative reactions compared with GM food. We identify four consumer groups: ‘Price Oriented/Technology Adopters’, ‘Technology Averse’, ‘Benefit Oriented’, and ‘New Technology Rejecters’. Each consumer group has a distinctive demographic background, which generates deeper insights into the diversified public acceptance of nano‐food and GM food. Our results have policy implications for the adoption of new food technologies.     

Consumer Acceptance of Second‐Generation GM Foods: The Case of Biofortified Cassava in the North‐east of Brazil

Biofortified staple foods are currently being developed to reduce problems of micronutrient malnutrition among the poor. This partly involves use of genetic modification. Yet, relatively little is known about consumer acceptance of such second‐generation genetically modified (GM) foods in developing countries. Here, we analyse consumer attitudes towards provitamin A GM cassava in the north‐east of Brazil. Based on stated preference data, mean willingness to pay is estimated at 60–70% above market prices for traditional cassava. This is higher than the results from similar studies in developed countries, which is plausible given that micronutrient malnutrition is more severe in developing countries. GM foods with enhanced nutritive attributes seem to be well received by poor consumers. However, the results also suggest that acceptance would be still higher if provitamin A were introduced to cassava through conventional breeding. Some policy implications are discussed.     

Comparing heterogeneous consumption in U.S. and Japanese meat and fish demand

This article uses national, quarterly data to conduct an empirical analysis of pre‐committed meat and fish demand by U.S. and Japanese households using the generalized almost ideal demand system (GAIDS). Pre‐committed demand represents the component of demand that is insensitive to both income and price adjustments. U.S. consumers are found to hold significant positive pre‐committed demand for beef and pork, while Japanese consumers appear to possess significant, positive pre‐committed demand for beef and fish. This provides evidence to partially explain observed differences in Japanese and U.S. consumer reactions to nonprice and nonincome effects in beef, pork, poultry, and fish. In addition, based on in‐ and out‐of‐sample performance, the more general GAIDS is preferred to the almost ideal demand system (AIDS) for both the U.S. and Japanese demand systems. Results lend to improved demand modeling efforts and more complete understanding of true market forces at hand in meat and fish markets for these culturally diverse consumer groups.     

Does a nutritious diet cost more in food deserts?

Food deserts and their potential effects on diet and nutrition have received much attention from policymakers. While some research has found a correlation between food deserts and consumer outcomes, it is unclear whether food deserts truly affect consumer choices. In this article, we compare food prices in food deserts, defined as low‐income, low‐access census tracts, and nonfood deserts to observe whether and to what extent consumers face higher prices for a complete diet in food deserts. If a nutritionally complete diet costs significantly more in food deserts, resident consumers may be constrained from consuming healthier foods. We use store‐level scanner data from a nationally representative sample and calculate a census‐tract level Exact Price Index (EPI) based on a food basket defined by the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP). The EPI addresses potential biases from both product heterogeneity and variety availability. We find that the overall price impact of living in a food desert is small; low‐access areas have only 3.5% higher EPI than high‐access counterparts. However, consumers who are constrained to shop within their own census tracts face a much higher EPI than high‐access counterparts (9.2%). The higher EPI primarily comes from lower variety availability in food deserts.     

Labelling Genetically Modified Food: Heterogeneous Consumer Preferences and the Value of Information

One facet of public debate associated with genetically modified (GM) food focuses on labelling policy for products derived from GM processes. This paper reports on the analysis of effects on consumers' choices of pre-packaged sliced bread under different GM food labelling policies. Substantial heterogeneity is found to exist among consumers' tastes for various bread attributes, including the presence/absence of GM ingredients in bread products. A simulation-based bias-adjusted measure is applied to estimate the value of information, as opposed to the value of the presence or absence of GM ingredients, revealed to consumers by different labelling procedures for the GM attribute. The information that is provided in a mandatory labelling context is considerably more valued by consumers than the information provided in a voluntary labelling context. In a final section, estimated consumer benefits from labelling policies are expressed in terms of average market prices for bread products, providing a measure of benefits against which potential cost increases that may be associated with labelling policies may be compared in the context of any future benefit–cost analysis of GM labelling.     

Consumer Demand for Genetically Modified Rice in Urban China

We investigate consumer demand for genetically modified (GM) rice in urban China, using a relatively large survey of urban consumers in 2013 and the contingent valuation method. Our results show that respondents discount their WTP for first, second and third generation of GM rice by 31%, 34% and 36%, respectively, compared with non‐GM rice, indicating substantial aversion to GM rice by Chinese consumers. The level of consumers’ subjective knowledge of GM rice has a significantly negative impact on their WTP for GM rice, implying that GM rice in China has become a ‘special food’ with an unreliable image.     

Canadian consumer acceptance of gene-edited versus genetically modified potatoes: A choice experiment approach

In 2016, second-generation genetically modified (GM) potatoes were approved for production and sale in Canada. In this study, we analyze how consumer acceptance of GM potatoes may be affected by various factors, including the trait introduced (i.e., the product benefits), the type of breeding technology used, and the developer of the potato using any technology. We conduct an online survey and use a stated choice experiment to collect data on consumer acceptance of GM and other potatoes in Canada. Random utility models are used to analyze the economic value consumers place on the various attributes of the potatoes. Our results show that consumers are willing to pay more for a health attribute (reduced acrylamide produced when potatoes are fried) and an environmental attribute. Respondents in general need to face discounted prices to buy potatoes created by either gene editing or GM (either transgenic or cisgenic/intragenic) technologies. However, consumers are in general more accepting of the gene editing technology than the GM technologies. Our results also show that government is the most preferred developer of the potatoes, regardless of technology. Results from this study can help guide public and private management of the introduction of new foods when the products are developed with unpopular technologies.     

Aquaculture imports from Asia: an analysis of U.S. consumer demand for select food quality attributes

The increasing share of imported food in the United States, coupled with highly publicized incidents of food contamination and adulteration in Asia, particularly China, is posing new challenges for consumers and food safety regulators. In this study, we focus on imported shrimp and tilapia, to evaluate consumer willingness‐to‐pay (WTP) for enhanced food safety, use of antibiotics, and eco‐friendly environmental practices. Results show that U.S. consumers were willing‐to‐pay more for enhanced food safety, followed by the use of no antibiotics and environmental friendly production practices. American consumers in our sample were found to have a higher WTP for domestic products and placed more trust on U.S. government verification of product attributes followed by third‐party certification.     

Measuring the relative importance of preferences for country of origin in China, France, Niger, and the United States

Recent labeling policies in developed countries place new focus on origin labeling, especially country of origin labeling, for a variety of food products. It is not clear if this new emphasis on origin is the result of more ethnocentric consumer preferences for food. We measure consumer preferences for country of origin in four different international locations and one domestic control location using a conjoint experiment to test the null hypotheses that consumers do not have stronger own-country preferences. In addition, we compare the relative importance of consumer preferences for origin to their preferences for genetically modified food and pesticide-free production using attribute coefficients from within location ordered probit models. The study was conducted in China, France, Niger, and the United States. We find consumers tend to prefer food from their own location indicating ethnocentric tendencies do play a role in shaping country-of-origin preferences. Country of origin is generally less important to consumers than genetically modified food content and pesticide use in food production.     

Forecasting the Adoption of GM Oilseed Rape: Evidence from a Discrete Choice Experiment in Germany

This paper explores farmers’ willingness to adopt genetically modified (GM) oilseed rape prior to its commercial release and estimates the ‘demand’ for the new technology. The analysis is based upon choice experiments with 202 German arable farmers. A multinomial probit estimation reveals that GM attributes such as gross margin, expected liability from cross pollination, or flexibility in returning to conventional oilseed rape significantly affect the likelihood of adoption. Neighbouring farmers’ attitudes towards GM cropping and a number of farmer and farm characteristics were also found to be significant determinants of prospective adoption. Demand simulations suggest that adoption rates are very sensitive to the profit difference between GM and non‐GM rape varieties. A monopolistic seed price would substantially reduce demand for the new technology. A monopolistic seed supplier would reap between 45% and 80% of the GM rent, and the deadweight loss of the monopoly would range between 15% and 30% of that rent. The remaining rent for farmers may be too small to outweigh possible producer price discounts resulting from the costs of segregating GM and non‐GM oilseed rape along the supply chain.     

Acceptance of genetically modified food: comparing consumer perspectives in the United States and South Korea

This study examines public perceptions of biotechnology, specifically the consumer approval of genetically modified food products, from plant as well as from animal origin, based on data collected from national surveys conducted in both the United States and South Korea. South Korean consumers reported better understanding of food production, science, and technology relative to U.S. consumers. South Korean consumers also recalled having heard more about genetic modification than did U.S. consumers. Findings also suggest that consumers in the United States and South Korea who possessed an accurate knowledge of the applications and outcomes of genetic modification technology were more likely to approve of its use for the creation of foods than those who had inaccurate or no knowledge of the technology. Results also indicate that consumers who considered labeling of genetically modified foods to be necessary are less likely to approve of the genetic modification of foods than those who did not. Consumers in both countries are less approving of genetic modification of animals than the genetic modification of plants. However, U.S. consumers are more approving of using genetic modification technology to create animal‐derived foods than are South Korean consumers.     

Mandatory versus voluntary labelling of genetically modified food: evidence from an economic experiment

Opponents of the voluntary labelling scheme for genetically modified (GM) food products often argue that consumers have the “right to know” and therefore advocate mandatory labelling. In this article, we argue against this line of reasoning. Using experimental auctions we show that the quality of the signal generated by a mandatory labelling scheme is affected by the number of labels in the market. If there are two labels, one for GM products and one for non‐GM products, mandatory and voluntary labelling schemes generate a similar degree of uncertainty about the quality of products that do not carry a label.     

Factors Impacting Food Safety Risk Perceptions

We developed and applied a model of consumer risk perceptions of beef food safety to better understand the underlying drivers of consumer demand for food safety. We show how consumer demographics, country‐of‐residence, as well as reliance on, and trust in, alternative food safety information sources affect risk perceptions of consumers in Canada, Japan and the United States. Consumers in all three countries have risk perceptions shaped by their level of reliance on observable and credence attribute information. Risk perceptions of consumers in each country are significantly higher for those less trusting of doctors. Moreover, personal and indirect food safety experiences substantially affect risk perceptions. These results are useful to decision‐makers in developing more efficient supply chain management strategies and public policies aimed at building or sustaining consumer confidence in food safety.