煤电价格的放松管制

近来,国家发改委提出了放开煤电价格,由煤电双方自主决定交易价格,这意味着我国的资源改革向市场化迈出了重要的一步。放开煤电价格管制,有利于我国煤炭和电力行业增强竞争力,提高经济效益。但在改革的过程中,我国长期以来实行的煤电政策造成了煤炭和电力行业对放开煤电价格持不同的看法,难以协调,故有必要对我国煤电行业放开价格管制的市场化改革以及改革过程中出现的问题加以讨论。     

跟随利率市场化的脚步看中国金融市场的发展

20世纪90年代后期以来,生产要素价格的合理化和市场化被重视起来。作为重要的生产要素,资金价格（利率）的市场化已经被推到了改革的前沿。我国银行间同业拆借利率的放开,标志着我国利率市场化进程的帷幕正式拉开。利率市场化遵循改革的总体思路被确定为：     

实行利率市场化改革的风险及对策

我国金融体制改革的一个重要目标，就是逐步实现信贷资金商品化，融通资金市场化。随着我国金融市场的逐步放开，作为资金使用权转让价格的利率，也应当有控制地逐步放开。本试从实行利率市场化改革的必要性，我国实行利率市场化存在的风险以及实行利率市场化改革的对象等方面进行了论述。     

完善市场价格监管势在必行

市场价格是改革放开实行市场调节的价格,是我国社会主义市场经济的主体价格,市场价格的行为和秩序如何,事关完善社会主义市场经济体体制的大事。对市场价格实施监管,维护其秩序、规范其行为,是贯彻“十一五”规划,健全市场价格机制、维护价格公平竞争、健全社会主义市场经济体制、全面落实科学发展观,加快全面建设小康社会,维护消费者和经营者合法权益,密切党和政府与人民群众血肉联系,构建和谐社会的一个永久性重要课题。价格市场化后存在的问题比较突出我国经过二十多年的价格改革,已基本实现了价格市场化的改革目标。随着价格改革放开搞…     

中国利率市场化进程

在推进利率市场化改革方面,中国央行作了大量的放权工作:1996年以后,先后放开了银行间拆借市场利率、债券市场利率和银行间市场国债和政策性金融债的发行利率;放开了境内外币贷款和大额外币存款利率;试办人民币长期大额协议存款;逐步扩大人民币贷款利率的浮动区间。     

试论国债的公募招标发行方式

公募招标是市场化程度最高的发行方式,它不仅能够促进巨额国债的顺利发行以及降低发行成本,还有利于货币政策的实施。国债的招标发行包括单一价格招标和多种价格招标,其中前者侧重于国债招标价格的提高,后者侧重于国债招标数量的增加。这两种方式在我国近年来的国债发行实践中均被采纳过,但根据我国国情未来应主要发展多种价格招标方式。     

利率市场化定价机制下构建储蓄国债发行管理体系

利率市场化改革是一国金融业发展到一定程度的客观需要和必然结果,也是一国经济体制改革中的核心问题。党的十八届三中全会决定,要"加快推进利率市场化",随后,央行行长在两会上明确表示存款利率或将两年内放开,这意味着我国利率市场化进程进入了加速期,我国储蓄国债面临利率市场化带来的严重冲击和巨大挑战。本文结合国内实际情况,分析得出储蓄国债发展的必然趋势是储蓄国债市场化,并研究在利率市场化定价机制下,当前储蓄国债发行工作存在管理落后、缺乏定价机制、储蓄国债期限结构失衡、流动性差、隐藏提前兑付风险和发行失败风险等问题,并提出构建储蓄国债发行管理体系的对策建议。     

利率市场化对商业银行影响及应对策略

2015年5月1日存款保险制度正式实施,6月2日大额存单发行开闸,8月26日一年以上定期存款利率浮动上限全部放开,10月23日,央行宣布放开取消存款利率上限,标志着始于2012年6月的存贷款利率市场化改革在制度层面上已基本完成,下一步商业银行如何抓住和应对利率市场化带来的机遇和挑战,增强核心竞争力,值得深思。文章以农行临海市支行为例,研究了新常态下利率市场化改革对商业银行业务经营的影响,深入分析其利率管理的优势、劣势、机遇和挑战,提出了应对利率市场化改革的思考和建议。     

利率市场化的理论、实践和政策

<正>从实践上看,利率市场化的难点不在于中央银行放开货币市场利率管制,而在于真实经济体系是否充分自由竞争利率是经济体系最重要的价格。利率市场化或市场化利率,历来是经济学和金融学的重要话题。分开来说,问题至少包含三个方面的内容:其一,利率是一种什么价格?利率的本质是什么?利率算是哪一类成本?其二,怎样的利率机制或定价机制才能形成所谓的市场化利率?利率市场化到底是什么意思?放     

破除能源领域行政性垄断

正"节流"就要求打破我国能源领域现行的行政性垄断和价格管制,同时利用市场和政府的手段把能源的价格机制理顺。对此建议如下:1.推进能源领域的市场化改革,首先是要破除石油、天然气和电力三大行业各种形式的行政性垄断,放开市场准入。在油气领域,经由先易后难、逐步推进的策略,可先打破原油和成品油进口环节的行政性垄断,放开下游流通环节;     

Soviet agricultural prices,rent and land cadastrest

Progress toward decentralized agriculture in which entrepreneurial initiative of Soviet farm managers could be given fuller range is impeded by the double function of Soviet agricultural prices: as factors affecting input and output decisions and as extractors of land rent. Claims that the Soviet land cadastre inhibits the setting of uniform marginal-cost prices are here examined and found wanting. The real culprits are special interest opposition, ignorance of the potential role of prices, and inability to achieve the necessary complementary reforms, which can be traced to shortcomings in Soviet agricultural economic research and education.     

Open access,common property and scarcity rent in fisheries

Open access resources are frequently not managed efficiently, resulting in falling stock levels and a declining income for fishermen. In the late 1970's, the policy response to this problem was the implementation of 200-mile fishing zones, which enabled the European Union to formulate and implement the Common Fisheries Policy, aimed at (among other things) conservation and distribution of available stocks. In Germany, this shift from an open access regime towards a common property regime had favourable outcomes. The trend of falling prices was reversed. The conclusion was that intertemporal efficiency had increased as a result of (inter)governmental policy. Apparently, a wedge was formed between price and marginal harvesting costs, implying that scarcity rent had returned as a component of prices.     

Die Bedeutung der Lager für die Konjunktur

Summary The aim of this paper is to collect disaggregated data on inventories in Austria. This information is used to study the role of inventory investment in business cycles. It seemed especially interesting to investigate whether entrepreneurs plan a stable inventory-sales ratio and whether inventories of purchased goods, goods in production and goods for sale are influenced by the same factors.It turns out that the aggregate inventory-sales ratio (in current prices) decreased considerably during the past twenty years. This decrease was caused only by different rates of price increases; measured in constant prices, the rate remained almost constant. Inventories exhibit a procyclical behavior, with inventory investment leading and inventory stocks lagging.For industry investment in stocks of purchased goods depends on outstanding orders and on imports, for goods in process on orders, production and on stocks of finished goods (positively). eterminants of finished goods inventories are sales and capacity utilisation (positive sign); entrepreneurs therefore increase their stocks in boom phases and decrease them in times of slower demand. This is exactly the behavior which a previous theoretical paper expected: Inventories don't act as a buffer over the cycle, quite the contrary, inventory planning reinforces economic fluctuations.     

Incomplete Information, Trading Costs and Cross‐autocorrelations in Stock Returns

This paper provides an economic rationale for the cross‐autocorrelation patterns in stock returns in the context of a microstructure model in which investors have incomplete information. The paper shows that in a market in which investors are informed about only a sub‐set of stocks, the emergence of lead‐lag, cross‐autocorrelations is a function of the cost of trading in other stocks based on information about the sub‐set of stocks. If cross‐trading costs are high, informed investors will trade only in the sub‐set of stocks they are informed about; if cross‐trading costs are moderate, informed investors will randomize between trading and not trading in other stocks; and if cross‐trading costs are low, they will trade in all stocks. When informed investors trade only in a sub‐set of stocks, prices of stocks with more informed trading will adjust to common factor information faster than the prices of stocks with less informed trading giving rise to asymmetric lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelations. When informed investors trade in all stocks, asymmetric lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelations will disappear as a result of their cross‐market arbitrage trading. These results provide a number of testable implications for lead‐lag cross‐autocorrelation patterns. The data is consistent with the empirical predictions .
(J.E.L.G12, G14).     

Rational Expectations is not Generally Valid for Econometric Models: Evidence from Stock Market Data

In applying the rational expectations hypothesis to generate expectations in an econometric model it is assumed that (1) the model itself is capable of generating reasonable forecasts of all required expectations variables included in the model, and that (2) the economic agents whose behavior is being modeled act as if they form their psychological expectations as conditional mathematical expectations generated by the model. Both assumptions can be invalid, as demonstrated by the historical data on Hong Kong stock prices and by the successful application of the adaptive expectations hypothesis to explain panel data of prices of individual stocks and aggregate time series data on stock price indices of the United States and of Hong Kong.     

Market Underreaction and Overreaction of Technology Stocks

Several studies have assessed stock market under- or overreaction of stocks and there is some agreement among them. However, there is much disagreement about what constitutes market underreaction or overreaction, and the conditions that cause it. The substantial variation in results among studies may be partially attributed to the types of firms that are contained in any sample. We investigate this premise by focusing on a sample of technology stocks that experienced an extreme change in stock price, along with a corresponding control sample of non-technology stocks that experienced a similar extreme change in stock price on the same day.

Based on the subsequent stock price behavior of each sample, we find a greater degree of overreaction within extreme positive changes in technology stock prices (winners) than in non-technology stock prices. In addition, we find a greater degree of underreaction within extreme negative changes in technology stock prices (losers) than in non-technology stock prices. When considering winners and losers collectively for technology and non-technology firms, it appears the market is overoptimistic when it initially revalues technology stock prices relative to non-technology stock prices.

The degree of under- or overreaction of technology stocks varies within the sample of technology stocks, and is conditioned on firm-specific characteristics. Overall, our results suggest that technology stocks exhibit unique stock price behavior subsequent to an extreme change in price, and that this unique behavior can even vary among technology firms according to firm-specific characteristics.     

Did rent deregulation alter tenure choice decisions in the Czech Republic?

Our study is the first that explicitly links rent deregulation and the choice between owning and renting (the tenure choice) using household decisions over a 1‐year period. The rent deregulation process in the Czech Republic started in 2006, two years after joining the European Union. By design, the maximum regulated rent appreciation depended explicitly on real estate prices, which accelerated the pace of deregulation due to rapidly rising prices at the time. A unique dataset enables us to track the tenure choice of households from consumption surveys for subsequent years. The proportion of households that switched from renting to owning sharply increased among renters of regulated apartments. We show that this change was caused by the deregulation process. In contrast, rent deregulation makes owners and renters paying market rent less likely to change ownership status.     

The risk of falling house prices in Italy

This paper shows that Italian house market is less exposed to price shocks than the American one. Variations in the house price index in real terms have been studied along with the affordability ratio and the relation between house prices and rent levels for the period 1995–2004 in Italian provinces. Comparison with US data reveals greater overpricing in the US during the expansion phase (2000–2004). Although a speculative bubble in all US metropolitan areas considered does not emerge, US financial and economic structural factors make the US real estate sector more exposed to price shocks. To test the compatibility of Italian house prices with fundamentals an econometric model is designed to analyze the provincial house prices from 1995 to 2003.     

On the effect of high energy prices on investment

Empirical analyses of firm behaviour typically assume that there is a stable relationship between investment on the one hand and changes in the relative prices of inputs, output demand and other determinants on the other hand. However, because of the lumpy nature and irreversibility of investments and the presence of uncertainty about future economic developments, a specific percentage change in relative prices and output demand may not always lead to the same percentage change in capital stocks. That means that different regimes may exist in investment behaviour. We test whether such regimes exist using high-quality data on eight manufacturing industries in the Netherlands. Three different regimes can be identified that are characterized by differences in the relative input price levels and we find that if relative prices take on extreme values, the propensity to adjust the scale of production to changes in demand is very low.     

"What Goes Up Must Come Down"-How Charts Influence Decisions to Buy and Sell Stocks

Five experiments examine how charts depicting past stock prices influence investing decisions. We expected investors to use extreme past prices depicted in charts as comparison standards to which expectations about future prices are assimilated. Investors should thus expect stocks depicted in a chart with a salient high to perform better than stocks depicted in a chart with a salient low. And as a consequence, investors should be more likely to buy and less likely to sell stocks depicted in a chart with a salient high than a low. Results of five experiments support this reasoning. Whether investors are private or professional and whether background information about the stock was limited or abundant, expectations about future prices assimilated to extreme past prices. Consequently, investors buy more and sell less when the critical chart is characterized by a salient high than a low. The implications of these findings for the core role comparison processes play in investing decisions are discussed.