EMU and Labour Market Reform: Needs,Incentives and Realisations

Despite improving labour market conditions in recent years, a number of EMU countries still suffer from high and persistent unemployment. It could therefore be expected that labour market reform would be given a prominent position on the political agenda. The new constraints associated with the common monetary policy only increase the pressure for reform. Relying on the introduction of the single currency as a trigger for labour market reform may be a risky strategy. EMU generates a complex set of re‐optimising strategies of the players on the labour market, which makes it difficult to get a clear idea what impact it will have on labour market reform. Evaluation of recent reform measures does not make one confident either. The empirical analysis confirms to some extent the idea that countries with higher unemployment rates have carried out more labour market reform. This finding holds, however, only for countries that do not belong to EMU. EMU countries have on average carried out no more reform than countries outside EMU and any link between the initial unemployment level and the labour market reform indicators seems to lack. It may become apparent that more reform is needed once the macroeconomic environment becomes more unfavourable.     

Germany: Gradual revival in domestic demand

The economic recovery in Germany is still narrowly based. The main problem continues to be the unsatisfactory situation in the labour market. What is the outlook for next year? What problems may arise in the run-up to EMU?     

Germany’s stake in exchange rate stability

The position taken by politicians and important pressure groups in Germany concerning EMU will depend to a large extent on its labour market implications—and thus on the (perceived) impact of exchange rate variability on employment and unemployment. Most economists would assume this impact to be minor. The purpose of this paper is to show that this presumption might be wrong.     

Living with the Euro: the consequences for world business

This paper evaluates the impact Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) will have upon world business. The impact upon the European business environment includes potential benefits of a low inflation, low interest rate zone, contrasted with problems of incomplete prior convergence and a deflationary bias at the heart of the EMU model. ‘Micro’ consequences include intensified competitive pressures, completion of the single market and industrial restructuring, tensions in labour relations between supra-national corporatism and decentralised flexibilisation, the impact of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), together with estimated cost of transition. The paper concludes by warning businesses that inaction increases vulnerability, whilst preparedness maximises potential gains.     

The optimum currency area theory and the EMU

The eurozone crisis has revealed certain shortcomings of the EMU, such as its vulnerability to asymmetric shocks and its inability to act as predicted by the theory of optimum currency areas. Although the share of intra-EU trade has increased since the introduction of the euro, dissimilarities in economic structure combined with high degrees of industrial specialisation have increased the EMU’s vulnerability to asymmetric shocks. Moreover, the lack of labour mobility or a transfer payment system limits the EMU’s crisis adjustment capabilities. However, most of the implemented and proposed stabilisation measures seek to remedy this vulnerability by promoting economic integration, further fiscal discipline and debt redemption.     

Exchange rate volatility effects on labour markets

With the transition to the euro, exchange rate volatility between the countries participating in European Monetary Union has been eliminated, reducing uncertainty and transaction costs. The other side of the coin is the loss of the exchange rate as a potential mechanism of adjustment to external shocks. The present article uses the case of Germany to study the implications of EMU for labour markets.     

US-sclerosis?

The USA is currently experiencing “jobless” economic growth, a situation which has been characteristic of European labour markets, and which has been coined “eurosclerosis”. This lack of employment growth in Europe has almost unanimously been ascribed to labour market institutions, although there has never been hard empirical support for this position. Now the US job machine does not seem to be working, although the American labour market institutions have not changed. Will we now see a decade of “US-sclerosis”?     

Globalization and Hong Kong's labour market: the deregulation paradox

The globalization of business has affected Hong Kong, giving rise to important changes in its labour market and with impacts on workers and labour organizations. This has been felt in the migration of manufacturing plants to China in combination with labour market deregulation via the government's guest worker policy. We examine the institutional implications of liberalizing the previous ban on the admission of guest workers. While this seeming reversal was tantamount to deregulation, it also produced regulation via a new body of norms and rules governing guest labour which were, paradoxically, restrictive and disabling for the affected parties.     

Trade Wars: The Exaggerated Impact of Trade in Economic Debate

The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the centre of controversy as globalisation has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labour market – either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF and World Bank meetings demanding global labour standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labour market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on the labour market. Other aspects of globalisation – immigration, capital flows and technology transfer – have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labour standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labour standards create a ‘race to the bottom’.     

British Ethnic Minorities and Employment Training: Redressing or Extending Disadvantage?

The reasons which have been offered to explain the low labour market success encountered by ethnic minorities in Britain include their possible lack of motivation, lack of qualification and training opportunities, and discrimination in the labour market. Whilst discrimination as a contributory factor to labour market exclusion has been widely discussed in the literature, the efficacy of Government sponsored training schemes designed to equip ethnic minorities with skills which may improve their competitiveness and reduce their disadvantage has been subjected to less scrutiny. This article provides an evaluation of the role of Government sponsored employment training programmes in reducing ethnic minorities’ disadvantaged position in the labour market. It argues that training programmes designed to improve employment opportunities are failing members of the ethnic minority communities and are in some cases helping to extend their disadvantage. It identifies the reasons for the failure as (1) the constant changes in Government policies with the development of sometimes contradictory policies, and (2) the inefficiency and prejudice of the training and employing organisations which are involved in the process. The article concludes with an assessment of the consequences of continuing discrimination against ethnic minority communities.     

The Global Economic Crisis and The Effect of Immigrant Workers on Native‐born Employment in Europe

The debate regarding the economic effects of employing immigrants has attracted renewed interest in European countries since the economic crisis. We provide an approximation of the labour market effects of immigrant workers in four European countries during the global economic crisis after briefly analysing native and foreign‐born worker conditions for the most recent period. Our analysis focuses on the correlation between the stock of immigrant workers and the number of native labour market workers across several segments of the labour market using a simple model approach. Using Eurostat and LFS (Labour Force Survey) data, we estimate a structural dynamic model using the generalised method of moments (GMM) to examine adjustment dynamics in the labour market and labour market segment and worker educational levels, countries of origin and genders. Overall, the empirical results suggest that immigrant labour force effects on native‐born worker employment rates have been persistent and but weak throughout the business cycle. These effects are globally positive, and immigrant origins do not appear to change the nature of their impact. We offer some explanations for these findings related to dual labour markets and to differences in levels of substitution among native and immigrant workers.     

The Structure of Labour Markets in the Hotel and Catering Industry: What do Employment Law Cases Indicate?

The allocation of labour in the hotel and catering industry remains an under-researched and little understood process. Direct empirical observation of the labour market involves methodological difficulties requiring a major research project. An attempt is made to explore the labour market by analysing the facts of employment law cases which must be considered as secondary sources of data. The main conclusions are that the labour market approximates to the neo-classical model and that recent legislation has not provided statutory protection for employees at work.     

Globalisation, internal labour markets and the migration of the highly skilled

Over the last decade highly skilled migration has been gaining relative importance in European migration flows. Following the goods and factor markets the market for highly skilled labour has thus also started to globalise. How are the globalisation processes of the world-wide goods, capital and labour markets interlinked? What role do international enterprises and their internal labour markets play in increasing highly skilled migration? What trends can be expected for the future?     

The Greek Debt Crisis: Likely Causes,Mechanics and Outcomes

We use insights from the literature on currency crises to offer an analytical treatment of the crisis in the market for Greek government bonds. We argue that the crisis itself and its escalating nature are very likely to be the result of: (i) steady deterioration of Greek macroeconomic fundamentals over 2001–09 to levels inconsistent with long‐term EMU participation; and (ii) a double shift in markets’ expectations, from a regime of credible commitment to future EMU participation under an implicit EMU/German guarantee of Greek fiscal liabilities, to a regime of non‐credible EMU commitment without fiscal guarantees, respectively occurring in November 2009 and February/March 2010. We argue that the risk of contagion to other periphery EMU countries is significant; and that without extensive structural reforms, the sustainability of the EMU is in question.     

Small Firms and Economic Transformation in Bulgaria

The pace of transition to a market economy has been slower in Bulgaria than in some other east European countries in the 1990s. Output levels in the state owned sector, which has not yet been subject to mass privatisation, have fallen sharply and there has been a dramatic increase in unemployment. There has however also been a rapid growth in the number of small firms, and the ability of this sector to generate new jobs will be an important component of labour market dynamics in the future. Some of the main characteristics of this emergent sector are identified on the basis of a sample survey of nearly 400 small Bulgarian firms, covering competitiveness, entrepreneurship, innovation, networking, labour relations and business performance of the small firms. Key features of a subset of small firms with an orientation towards employment growth are identified.     

Globalization,China's free (read bonded) labour market,and the Chinese trade unions

After two decades of economic reform during which China developed a strong export thrust into the world market, an industrial labour market has taken shape in China. But it is not really a free labour market in that deposits are generally required of workers when they commence employment. For some migrant workers this has led to a condition equivalent to being bonded, which enables Asian foreign investors to establish harsh labour regimes in the factories they manage. The Chinese official trade unions are at a crossroads – do they side with the workers, management or with the party-state?     

Bilateral Trade and the Eurozone: Evidence from New Member Countries

The question of whether and how much currency unions increase bilateral trade among their members has garnered much attention since Rose’s seminal article. The answer is as pertinent now as ever for both the Eurozone’s existing and future members as the financial crisis shook the very foundations of the European Monetary Union (EMU) and brought its shortcomings into the spotlight. This paper analyses the issue using the gravity equation with country pair and time fixed effects. For a sample of the four new members of the EMU – Slovakia, Slovenia, Malta and Cyprus – which has, to the author’s knowledge, not been studied thus far due to their recent joining, and controls drawn from the European Union, this paper finds a positive relationship between joining the EMU and trade with EMU partners but not with non‐EMU partners.     

Labour mobility in the EU: Dynamics,patterns and policies

The continued economic crisis has become a major test for the labour markets of individual member states. Labour mobility within the European Union has the potential to help to reduce labour market pressures and ease economic imbalances. However, a long-term loss of working age population can be detrimental to sending countries. This Forum explores mobility patterns within the European Union and analyses the labour market and welfare effects of labour mobility via case studies of the UK, Poland, Germany and Spain. It also examines a number of its aspects that have important political and institutional relevance for the European Union and its future.     

Bilanz des gesetzlichen Mindestlohns: deutliche Lohnerhöhungen,aber auch viele Umgehungen

Three years after the introduction of the minimum wage in 2015, the assessment of its labour market impact is positive. Contrary to early warnings, there has been no apparent decline in employment in most affected parts of the labour market. The share of the working poor who were eligible for drawing in-work benefits declined by 2.7 percentage points. Nevertheless, there still is a pressing problem of 2.2 million minimum wage violations. Those occur more often in establishments that do not have worker representation and are not covered by collective bargaining. Women and East Germans are also more often affected. Lost wages and social insurance contributions in 2016 were as high as €10 billion.     

Spouse care for children and other family members: the effects of family benefits

This paper first presents evidence from Spain on the relationship between the labour situation of both spouses within the family and the time dedicated to the care of the children, the elderly and the infirm. Second, it analyses the effect that government benefits for such care would have on the labour market and on household poverty. The results show that while Spanish society has advanced in the incorporation of women into the labour market, most of them still have to assume total responsibility for housework and the care of the children, the elderly and the infirm. Against this background, we find that benefits would decrease female participation in the labour market and the number of hours worked, while they would also contribute towards reducing poverty.