Firm and regional economic outcomes associated with a new,broad measure of business innovation

ABSTRACT

Most innovation-oriented studies use measures such as patent activity or research expenditures, likely ignoring the role of more home-grown upgrades or opportunity-recognizing activity common in businesses across the U.S. This study develops a broader ‘innovation index’ using a new survey of businesses that provides a wide lens for capturing innovative practices. The index is used in a series of regressions testing the relationship between innovation and both firm and regional-level economic outcomes. Results from the firm-level regressions show that the innovation index has a positive and significant relationship with wages paid to employees and product market growth. The regional analysis demonstrates that innovation is correlated with several regional economic variables, including median household income, and that spatial spillovers from innovation exist in some instances.     

Competing Networks,Spatial and Industrial Concentration in the US Airline Industry

Abstract

The paper uses Gini decomposition analysis to evaluate changes in the spatial distribution and industry shares of total US air traffic, as well as analysing the decomposition components for individual airlines and airports for the period 1990–2002. The paper develops explicit relationships between two of the main decomposition schemes used in the income inequality literature and shows the insights that such analysis may provide for evaluation and examination of air transport networks and traffic distributions. A multi-dimensional Gini and its decomposition are derived using an adjustment method derived from the relationship between the two Gini decomposition schemes.     

Spatial Growth Regressions: Model Specification,Estimation and Interpretation

Abstract

We attempt to clarify a number of points regarding use of spatial regression models for regional growth analysis. We show that as in the case of non-spatial growth regressions, the effect of initial regional income levels wears off over time. Unlike the non-spatial case, long-run regional income levels depend on: own region as well as neighbouring region characteristics, the spatial connectivity structure of the regions, and the strength of spatial dependence. Given this, the search for regional characteristics that exert important influences on income levels or growth rates should take place using spatial econometric methods that account for spatial dependence as well as own and neighbouring region characteristics, the type of spatial regression model specification, and weight matrix. The framework adopted here illustrates a unified approach for dealing with these issues.     

Growth in a Cross-section of Cities: Location,Increasing Returns or Random Growth?

Abstract

This article analyses empirically the main existing theories on income and population city growth: increasing returns to scale, locational fundamentals and random growth. To do this we consider a large database of urban, climatological and macroeconomic data from 1,173 US cities observed in 1990 and 2000. The econometric model is robust to the presence of spatial effects. Our analysis shows the existence of increasing returns and two distinct equilibria in per-capita income and population growth. We also find important differences in the structure of productive activity, unemployment rates and geographical location between cities in low-income and high-income regimes.     

Using a Demand System to Estimate Extended Input–Output Multipliers

The interface between household income and expenditure has always been considered to be a key component in the construction of input–output models. However, it can be argued that households are too often treated as if they were just another in dustry in the input–output table. In this paper, we seek to address this problem by developing a new modelling framework in which a micro demand system is used to estim ate the relationship between income and expenditure. This demand system is conjoined with an input–output table for the UK economy, and the system as a whole is solved as a computable general equilibrium model. Comparisons are made between the Jacobian multipliers generated by this model and those derived from a more traditional input–output model in which the income-expenditure linkage is estimated using static coefficients.     

Development Accounting with Spatial Effects

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to show how the spatial autocorrelation phenomenon often observed in the world distribution of income per capita, can be introduced structurally as the outcome of spillovers effects into a development accounting equation. Neglecting spatial autocorrelation potentially biases our vision of the role played by physical capital in the development process. We show that the total contribution of physical capital accounts for almost 90% of the differences between developing countries and the richest countries.     

The Social Marketing of Giving

Abstract

Despite significant government efforts to bolster individual philanthropy, giving by individuals (as a percentage of household income) has remained remarkably static and participation in many western countries is declining. This article explores the role that governments might play in facilitating growth, from a social marketing perspective. Drawing on research from multiple domains this article proposes an easily accessible and actionable framework (1) to inform public policy and (2) to guide further impactful academic research, with the objective of increasing both participation in, and the monetary value of, individual giving.     

Mineral-led Economic Growth, Drought Relief, and Incomes Policy

Abstract . Some analysts have hypothesized that rapid mineral led economic growth and drought in the rural economy have led to a severe worsening of the plight of the rural population in Botswana, with rural household income collapsing and income inequality worsening pronouncedly. Contrary to these hypotheses, Botswana's income data show that income distribution remained stable, since rural household incomes did not experience significant decline as a result of drought conditions. The government's incomes policy, the direct and indirect benefits of rapid employment growth, and the government's comprehensive drought relief support are seen as explanatory factors in this macroeconomic policy success.     

Effects of Household Consumption Patterns on CO2 Requirements

In order to evaluate the relation between the consumption pattern of various household types and their CO₂ requirements, we combine input-output tables energy flow matrices, CO₂ emissions factors, and national consumer survey statistics into an integrated modelling framework, and relate differences in household types to differences in private consumption and again to differences in CO₂ emissions. We identify household characteristics with a significant influence on CO₂ emissions. Comparing our results with those of other studies reveals that national differences in climate and population density cause differences in the contribution to CO₂ emissions. Finally, national differences in income and expenditure elasticities of both energy and CO₂ are due to differences in the disparity in CO₂ intensities amongst commodities and to the model's assumptions on foreign technology.     

Global estimates of growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle: evidence from World Bank’s classification countries

This study extended the concept of ‘growth–inequality–poverty (GIP) triangle’ by using the principle component approach which allows us to composite different poverty and inequality indicators into one single index that contains most of the useful information from the original dataset. Using the idea of GIP triangle, this study examines the long-run relationship among weighted poverty index (which comprises headcount ratio, poverty gap and squared poverty gap); weighted inequality index (i.e., Watts Index, Gini Index and MLD Index) and average monthly per capita income in the designated 138 countries according to World Bank’s classification over a period of 2005–2010. The data set mainly contain countries’ unit record household survey at least one which is conducted between the countries during the sample period. The regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and income inequality on poverty reflects that income inequality increases poverty while economic growth decreases poverty. It indicates that the impact of inequality in increasing poverty is a somewhat greater than that of growth in average income in reducing overall poverty in a sample countries. The other regression model encompassing the impact of economic growth and poverty on income inequality showed that the poverty itself is also likely to be a barrier for poverty reduction; and inequality seems to predict lower future growth rates. The final regression model depicting the impact of poverty and income inequality on mean income of the household suggests that poverty itself reduces mean income of the household while income inequality increases economic growth. The results are interesting and simply suggest that whenever social institutions malfunction, the incidence of damage would usually be distributed unevenly over the society’s members.     

Traffic density,congestion externalities,and urbanization in China

ABSTRACT

Although there is an abundant regional literature analyzing traffic congestion, only a few studies have explored extending such analysis with spatial effects. This study uses a dynamic spatial Durbin model and city-level panel data for the period 2003–14 to investigate the spatial spillover effects of traffic congestion on urbanization in China. The results show that there is an inverted ‘U’-shaped relationship between urbanization and traffic density in local and neighbouring cities, and congestion effects have appeared. In the short and long run, the spatial effects of traffic congestion have become an important force restricting the effective promotion of urbanization in China.     

Identifiability of mean‐reverting measurement error with instrumental variable

In the context where one main regressor is measured with error and at least one instrumental variable is available for the correction of measurement error, this paper provides, to the best of our knowledge, a first point‐identification result on the variance of measurement error, the variance of latent variable, and their covariance. We show that the parameters are identified if the regression model is not de facto linear. We illustrate the method in an application to identify mean‐reverting measurement error, a typical issue in reported income where the measurement error of income is negatively correlated with the true income.     

The Effects of Fiscal Decentralization on Household Income Inequality: Some Empirical Evidence

Abstract

We investigate the effects of fiscal decentralization on income inequality using a sample of 23 OECD countries over the period 1971–2000. We utilize novel and robust measures of fiscal decentralization based on different degrees of fiscal autonomy of sub-central governments. Our results highlight the importance of both the nature of fiscal decentralization—expenditure versus revenue—and the extent to which independent spending responsibility and taxing powers are actually assigned to local governments. A higher degree of tax decentralization is associated with higher household income inequality within a country. Thus, even if fiscal decentralization could be attractive according to efficiency reasons, it may actually have undesirable consequences on the income distribution.     

Constructing SAMs for Development Policy Analysis: Lessons Learned and Challenges Ahead

The aim of this paper is to appraise a few of the key innovative features of the early work in compiling SAMs for development policy analysis; to set out and review some recent methodological advances; and to identify those areas where compilation continues to be problematic. It briefly re-visits the features of the SAM as an integrating framework and sets out its relationship to the SNA 1993. The main compilation problems faced in practice arise from assembling the household accounts from household survey data where income data are especially unreliable and are difficult to link to the factor accounts and to income transfers. Experience is drawn from the construction of a Ghana SAM. In the literature relatively more attention has been devoted to balancing and data reconciliation methods, which are briefly reviewed, although these are second order adjustments and much still depends on the quality of the initial estimates     

Equity, Price Elasticity, and Household Income Under Increasing Block Rates for Water

Abstract . For an examination of the relationships between household income levels and residential water use, individual household survey data from Tucson, Arizona the combined with monthly water use data for these same households. The objectives were to examine individual response to the existing block rate pricing structure and to provide policy conclusions on potential improvements in this rate structure. A simultaneous equation model of demand is estimated for households within each income group to determine the price elasticity of demand for each income group. The demand models show that under the existing increasing block rate pricing schedules, higher income households not only use more water, but have lower elasticities of demand. Thus a uniform proportional rate increase will cause a larger percentage drop in water use among low income households than among high income households. Given the assumption of declining marginal utility of water use, this result leads to a policy recommendation for substantially steeper block rates to improve interpersonal equity in water pricing.     

Life course pathways to business start-up

We explore how socially embedded life courses of individuals within Britain affect the resources they have available and their capacity to apply those resources to start-up. We propose that there will be common pathways to entrepreneurship from privileged resource ownership and test our propositions by modelling a specific life course framework, based on class and gender. We operationalize our model employing 18 waves of the British Household Panel Survey and event history random effect logistic regression modelling. Our hypotheses receive broad support. Business start-up in Britain is primarily made from privileged class backgrounds that enable resource acquisition and are a means of reproducing or defending prosperity. The poor avoid entrepreneurship except when low household income threatens further downward mobility and entrepreneurship is a more attractive option. We find that gendered childcare responsibilities disrupt class-based pathways to entrepreneurship. We interpret the implications of this study for understanding entrepreneurship and society and suggest research directions.     

Household production, full consumption and the costs of children

Recent work criticises both the logic and relevance of the theoretical basis of the approach to estimating the costs of raising children adopted in much of the economics literature. This tends to be restricted purely to models in which the household members consume market goods with given household income. The “costs of children” are perceived essentially as market consumption costs. This ignores the fact that an important, possibly preponderant element of child costs takes the form of parental time, which must be diverted from alternative uses such as market work, other household production activities, and leisure, to care for children. The studies also ignore the question of the differential incidence of child costs on adult members of the household. In this paper, we first of all argue that a satisfactory theoretical approach to modelling child costs must simultaneously incorporate an “individualistic” formulation of the household and a formal treatment of household production. We then provide such a model. Using data from a time use survey we estimate specialised versions of the model for families with two children and use the results to derive the intra-family distribution of resources and implied child-rearing costs.     

Higher interest rates should not unduly faze consumers

• ? Though the MPC has signalled a more aggressive pace of interest hikes than previously anticipated, we still expect the impact on the consumer sector in aggregate to be modest. We estimate that household debt servicing costs will rise from the current level of 4.1% of household income to 5.0% by the end of 2019. This would still be only a little over half the pre‐crisis peak.
• ? We expect the MPC to hike interest rates twice in both 2018 and 2019, taking Bank Rate to 1.5% by the end of next year. Higher interest rates will impact on consumer spending by increasing debt servicing costs and reducing the attractiveness of credit (including mortgages), but savers will benefit from higher returns on their deposits.
• ? Mortgages account for 77% of loans to UK households and full pass through of a 100bp rise in Bank Rate to variable rate loans, implying an increase from 2.78% to 3.78%, would add £100 a month to the cost of servicing an average mortgage. But only two‐fifths of borrowers have a variable rate deal, so for many homeowners the adjustment to higher interest rates will not be immediate. And the proportion of houses which are owned via a mortgage has fallen over the past decade, suggesting that the household sector as a whole will be less sensitive to higher mortgage interest rates.
• ? Historically the relationship between Bank Rate and interest rates on unsecured lending has been weak and rates on credit cards and personal loans have not yet risen following November's rate hike. The link to deposit rates has been stronger and higher returns on savings will mitigate some of the damage to household income from higher debt servicing costs, although uneven distribution of debt and savings means that there will be winners and losers at a more disaggregated level.
• ? We have used the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model to run a counterfactual scenario where Bank Rate is kept at 0.5% throughout 2018 and 2019. The results suggest that the pace of rate hikes assumed in our baseline forecast would reduce the level of consumer spending by 0.2 percentage points by the end of 2019.

     

Data-based mechanistic modelling and forecasting globally averaged surface temperature

The main objective of this paper it to model the dynamic relationship between global averaged measures of Total Radiative Forcing (RTF) and surface temperature, measured by the Global Temperature Anomaly (GTA), and then use this model to forecast the GTA. The analysis utilizes the Data-Based Mechanistic (DBM) approach to the modelling and forecasting where, in this application, the unobserved component model includes a novel hybrid Box-Jenkins stochastic model in which the relationship between RTF and GTA is based on a continuous time transfer function (differential equation) model. This model then provides the basis for short term, inter-annual to decadal, forecasting of the GTA, using a transfer function form of the Kalman Filter, which produces a good prediction of the ‘pause’ or ‘levelling’ in the temperature rise over the period 2000 to 2011. This derives in part from the effects of a quasi-periodic component that is modelled and forecast by a Dynamic Harmonic Regression (DHR) relationship and is shown to be correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) index.     

Raising the bar (9)

ABSTRACT

This editorial summarizes the papers published in issue 13(4) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper develops an economic geography model with trade costs in all sectors and different shares of unskilled labour in all locations. The second paper translates an economic geography model into a dynamic spatial econometric model and then estimates the unknown parameters to test for congestion spillover effects among Chinese cities. The following paper also investigates spillover effects, but of sovereign and banking risks across countries. The fourth paper empirically examines if a higher market potential results in higher average productivity and lower productivity dispersion of Italian retailers. The fifth paper demonstrates that modelling more than one spatial lag in the independent variables, using different specifications of the spatial weight matrix, can be used as a tool to correct for an omitted variable bias. The final paper develops a test for the existence of non-parametric non-linearities in a linear spatial econometric model.