Democracy vs. dictatorship

A democratic society is often regarded as a prerequisite for economic growth and development. Yet, most empirical studies are not capable of identifying a positive link between GDP growth and democracy indexes. In addition, it is a stylized empirical fact that: (i) most developing countries are dictatorships; and (ii) many poor dictatorships have experienced high growth performances and emerged from poverty such as South Korea, China and Egypt. Against this background, it is of interest to analyse in which ways the growth performance between autocratic and democratic economies may differ, in particular among low-income countries. To answer this question, we compare the endogenous growth paths of two economies that differ only in their political regimes in the context of an overlapping generations model. The key features of the model are: (i) a positive bequest motive in the form of investments in education or productive public capital (infrastructure); (ii) a higher marginal (inter-temporal) utility of consumption today versus consumption tomorrow in low-income countries (for example, subsistence level of consumption); and (iii) a dictator that cares about her income or the income of her dynasty tomorrow. In this framework, we demonstrate that poor but large and stable dictatorships exhibit a higher equilibrium growth rate than comparable (equally poor) democracies. Moreover, there exists a particular threshold value in income such that the growth-reducing impact of dictatorial consumption (corruption) outweighs the higher (initial) public investments. Above this, the growth rate under democracy dominates the one in dictatorship.     

Telephone Penetration and Economic Growth in the APEC Region: A Simultaneous Non-Linear GMM Approach

We examine the contributions of the telecommunications infrastructure to economic growth in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) economies during the period from 1982 to 2003 using a modified version of the model developed by Roller and Waverman (2001). Our estimation results show that, consistent with Roller and Waverman (2001), telecommunication infrastructure has a significant effect on economic growth in the APEC region and that the inclusion of country fixed effects is important for obtaining a more reliable estimate of the growth effect. Moreover, the magnitude of the growth effect is inversely related to the level of telecommunications infrastructure in the APEC economies. While the marginal effect of an increase in telecommunications infrastructure in the APEC region is smaller than that in the OECD countries found in Roller and Waverman (2001), the total contribution of telecommunication infrastructure to economic growth is larger in the former than in the latter.     

Unilateral capital transfers, public investment, and economic growth

We contrast the effects of a transfer tied to investment in public infrastructure from a traditional pure transfer. The latter has no growth or dynamic consequences; it is always welfare improving, the gains increasing with the stock of government debt and the benefits of debt reduction. A tied transfer generates dynamic adjustments, as public capital is accumulated in the recipient economy. Its long-run growth and welfare effects depend upon the initial stock of infrastructure, as well as co-financing arrangements. These contrasts also apply to temporary transfers, particularly the transitional dynamics. A temporary pure transfer has only modest short-run growth effects and leads to a permanent deterioration of the current account, while a productive transfer has significant impacts on short-run growth, leading to permanent improvements in key economic variables including the current account.     

The ‘Rise of the South’: Global Convergence at Last?

This article offers a political economy review of the literatures and the empirical evidence concerning the ‘Rise of the South’. The study focuses on global convergence (in the long-term, in the last 30 years, and in the aftermath of the 2008 global crisis), economic decoupling between developing and advanced economies, and the economic strategies which may help catching-up, especially the ‘flying geese’ paradigm and industrial policies supporting manufacturing sector growth. It shows that the mainstream literature suffers from significant weaknesses; that empirical claims concerning convergence and decoupling have been exaggerated, and that flying geese-type strategies are severely limited. Examination of the drivers of growth in the South and the policies implemented in key converging countries support the claim that political economy approaches can offer valuable policy insights to countries grappling with the challenges of long-term growth and development.     

Private information, money, and growth: Indeterminacy, fluctuations, and the Mundell-Tobin effect

We introduce an informational asymmetry into an otherwise standard monetary growth model and examine its implications for the determinacy of equilibrium, for endogenous economic volatility, and for the relationship between steady-state output and the rate of money growth. Some empirical evidence suggests that, for economies with low initial inflation rates, permanent increases in the money growth rate raise long-run output levels. This relationship is reversed for economies with high initial inflation rates. Our model predicts this pattern. Moreover, in economies with high enough rates of inflation, credit rationing emerges, monetary equilibria become indeterminate, and endogenous economic volatility arises.     

Global Technology Policies for Economic Growth

With the end of the Cold War, nations throughout the world are placing ever greater emphasis on economic growth. Over the last 50 years, advances in technology have been the single most important factor in creating growth in many economies, and thus policies to promote technological innovation rank high on the list of priorities for both developed and developing countries. In general, as countries progress up the economic ladder, national R&D intensity, (i.e., R&D/GDP), tends to increase along with per capita income. In addition, nations move through a discernible sequence of technology policies from an initial focus on infrastructure, through a set of actions designed to encourage technology acquisition from more advanced economies, to comprehensive education and research agendas targeted to the creation and development of new technology. In the United States, national technology policy for economic growth focuses on education, building a 21st century infrastructure, and creating a business climate that encourages growth, technological innovation, and risk taking.Throughout the last 50 years there have been significant changes in the competitive position of nations. In recent years, U.S. corporations have regained some of the competitive leadership they lost in the 1980s. This has been accompanied by significantly increased R&D spending by U.S. industry, particularly in the information and health care related sectors. U.S. industry funding of R&D overtook that from the government in the early 1980s and accounts for almost two-thirds of the national total.     

Do city–county mergers in China promote local economic development?

Municipal mergers have become a worldwide phenomenon in the past few decades, primarily advanced to exploit economies of scale. While most evaluations of municipal mergers have focused on the efficiency of local public goods provision, it is rare in the literature to explore how such mergers promote economic growth in a developing country context. This research investigates the economic consequences of a policy experiment of city–county mergers (che xian she qu) in China during the period 2000–2004. Using comprehensive datasets at city, county and firm levels, we present evidence that the merger significantly increases local economic development, and the magnitude of the effect depends on local endowments related to agglomeration forces. The results are robust to a number of different model specifications. We further verify that improved transport infrastructure and urban agglomeration economies after merger are potential contributors to the positive merger effects.     

Pensions,education, and growth: A positive analysis

This study presents an overlapping generations model to capture the nature of the competition between generations regarding two redistribution policies, public education and public pensions. From a political economy viewpoint, we investigate the effects of population aging on these policies and economic growth. We show that greater longevity results in a higher pension-to-GDP ratio. However, an increase in longevity produces an initial increase followed by a decrease in the public education-to-GDP ratio. This, in turn, results in a hump-shaped pattern of the growth rate.     

Turkmenistan: From Communism to Nationalism by Gradual Economic Reform

Turkmenistan's economic performance during the first decade after independence is interesting because it is an extreme case, regularly ranking last among all the former centrally planned economies by transition indicators measuring speed of reform or degree of economic liberalization. This paper analyses the evolution of the economic system and Turkmenistan's economic development since 1991. The country's abundant resource endowment provided favourable initial conditions for pursuing an agenda that gave a low priority to economic reform, while emphasizing the country's neutrality and minimizing internal political change. Nevertheless, in 1997 the unreformed economy suffered a deep decline and, although it has enjoyed some recovery since 1999, the overall performance of GDP since independence is one of the worst among all transition economies. Although the government had achieved its external and internal political goals, the economic strategy appeared to be unsustainable.     

The technology element model,path-dependent growth,and innovation policy

This paper uses a multi-element model of technology-based growth, including characterizations of both private and public components of such elements, to assess expansion paths for high-tech industries. Such a technology element model (TEM) maintains the traditional proprietary (excludable) technology element that directly results in innovations, while adding the ‘technology platform’ – a quasi-public (non-excludable) proof of concept that bridges the gap between an industry's science base and proprietary technology development, and a diverse technical infrastructure that has substantial impacts on industry productivity. These three elements are related to each other and to the production of technical knowledge by a homothetic technology production function. The TEM is then applied to assess the concept of constrained expansion paths. Such path dependence is shown to be a natural evolutionary process in that the evolving character of a technology over time is not necessarily the result of market failures. Finally, the TEM and the concept of path dependence are combined to assess the factors affecting both adaptive and allocative efficiency with respect to the expansion path, thereby better informing innovation policy.     

Market Reform and Infrastructure Development in Transition Economies

This paper analyzes the determinants of investments in physical infrastructure over the first decade of market reform in Central and Eastern Europe and other former Soviet economies. Both market and political reform would be expected to have an impact on the level of infrastructure, but the relationship will likely differ for infrastructure which remains dependent on the public sector and that which becomes more dependent on private investment after such reforms. Results for a large cross section of transition economies show that market reform has had a positive impact on both traditional and newer types of infrastructure, with a stronger impact on the newer types which are more likely to be market‐derived. The findings also suggest that market reform is more likely to push investors to develop infrastructure when political and market reforms are accomplished in tandem.     

Institution building and growth in transition economies

Drawing on the recent literature on economic institutions and the origins of economic development, we offer a political economy explanation of why institution building has varied so much across transition economies. We identify dependence on natural resources and the historical experience of these countries during socialism as major determinants of institution building during transition. Using natural resource reliance and the years under socialism to extract the exogenous component of institution building, we also show the importance of institutions in explaining the variation in economic development and growth across transition economies during the first decade of transition.     

The Southeast Asian Economies in the Age of Discontent

This paper investigates the effects on and responses of five middle‐income Southeast Asian economies to the current global environment of authoritarian populism, the retreat from economic liberalism, and the appeal of anti‐globalization movements. While the political histories and institutional capabilities of the five – Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam – vary greatly, these economies have a history of at least moderately fast economic growth for extended periods, and of increasing regional and global economic integration. We argue that most of the factors behind the discontent with globalization in the rich economies are not present to the same degree in these countries, and that there has therefore been no major retreat from the economic policy settings that have underpinned their past economic success. However, there are no grounds for complacency. Economic growth is slowing in some of the countries, economic insecurity remains widespread, and the development of durable independent institutions has lagged economic growth.     

Public good,collective action and financial regulation

The economy‐wide liberalization reforms implemented from the 1980s onwards in major capitalist economies had deep impact on financial markets. Public financial regulation has been replaced by self‐regulation, financial innovations proliferated and gave rise to many diversified and complex speculative operations that financialized most economic decisions and actions. Recurrent instabilities and crises became common ground in advanced as well as in emerging market economies and converged on the global systemic crisis in 2007–08, notwithstanding the efficient market doctrine that kept supporting financial liberalization. This crisis raised concerns about the relevance of market‐based financial regulation with regard to the systemic viability of capitalist economies and brought forward the central role of financial regulatory framework in the sustainable working of open societies. This article considers financial stability as a collective action problem through the lens of the literature on the commons and public goods. It seeks to contribute to the development of a relevant paradigm of collective action in the provision of a particular public good, financial stability, through a particular public action, financial regulation. After recalling the broad outlines of the evolution of financial markets and the institutional environment in the last decades, the monetary and financial characteristics of a capitalist economy are presented. The monetary and financial structure turns out to be a public infrastructure. The criticalness of financial transactions for the whole economic society together with the non‐rivalrousness and non‐excludability of financial stability determine the very publicness of the latter. The continuity of financial relations fundamentally needs a viable financial system. However, this is a complex issue as it falls into the classical opposition “private vs public” and calls for a collective action framework consistent with the characteristics of a financialized economy. This article argues that financial stability cannot be ensured through individual‐decision‐based market relations because of the endogenous limits of individual actions and the systemic nature of instabilities they can provoke. A specific treatment of finance as a public utility and of financial stability as a public good is then required. The study on the organization and management of financial markets, namely financial governance issue, ultimately leads to consider financial regulation as a collective action problem that calls for a public supervision framework through an extra‐market macroregulation, apt to allow economy to work in a viable way.     

Modelling Social Infrastructure and Economic Growth

This paper develops a growth model with a public sector and a human capital sector to explore the impact of social infrastructure on investment in physical capital, the accumulation of skills, output, and consumption. We show that the implications of the model are consistent with the empirical observations of Hall and Jones (1999 ). Economies where government policies and institutions encourage production over diversion have a larger 'stock' of social infrastructure, conditional on population size and sophistication of diversion technologies, which raises output per worker by increasing the extent of participation in market, rather than diversive, activities. The magnitude of these effects depends on economic agents' inherent propensity for rent-seeking. In addition, economies with unstable governments may suffer from an under-provision of social infrastructure and, consequently, have reduced levels of capital and output per worker.     

A nonsmooth, nonconvex model of optimal growth

This paper analyzes the nature of economic dynamics in a one-sector optimal growth model in which the technology is generally nonconvex, nondifferentiable, and discontinuous. The model also allows for irreversible investment and unbounded growth. We develop various tools to overcome the technical difficulties posed by the generality of the model. We provide sufficient conditions for optimal paths to be bounded, to converge to zero, to be bounded away from zero, and to grow unboundedly. We also show that under certain conditions, if the discount factor is close to 1, any optimal path from a given initial capital stock converges to a small neighborhood of the golden rule capital stock, at which sustainable consumption is maximized. If it is maximized at infinity, then as the discount factor approaches 1, any optimal path either grows unboundedly or converges to an arbitrarily large capital stock.     

Endogenous fertility, international migration and growth

An endogenous growth model with heterogeneous agents and endogenous rates of fertility is developed to study the relationships between population growth, human capital, migration and economic development. A variety of patterns of migration, from the migration of the unskilled to the brain drain is considered, where the decision to migrate reflects the agents’ optimising behaviour. The analysis yields implications which accord with the empirical evidence on the relationships between demography and development. Macroeconomic policy can foster growth by influencing labour mobility through taxation and the provision of public goods such as social infrastructure, sanitation, environmental control and medical research that affect locational preferences and child quality. The author is grateful for the comments of an anonymous referee on an earlier version of the paper. The usual disclaimer applies.     

Liquidity risk, economic development, and the effects of monetary policy

Empirical evidence indicates that monetary policy is not super-neutral in many countries. In particular, in high inflation economies, inflation is negatively related to economic activity. By comparison, inflation may be positively correlated with output in low inflation countries. We present a neoclassical growth model with money in which the incidence of liquidity risk is inversely related to aggregate capital formation. Interestingly, there may be multiple monetary steady-states where the effects of monetary policy vary. In poor economies, the financial system is highly distorted and higher rates of money growth are associated with less capital formation. In contrast, in advanced economies, a Tobin effect is observed. Since inflation exacerbates distortions from a coordination failure in the low-capital steady-state, individuals become much more exposed to liquidity risk. Consequently, optimal monetary policy depends on the level of development.     

Openness, Investment Climate, and FDI in Developing Countries

The paper assesses the importance of openness, infrastructure availability, and sound economic and political conditions in increasing developing countries' attractiveness with respect to FDI. The results show that these factors are particularly important for South Asia, Africa, and the Middle East. The paper also shows a higher impact of these factors on FDI in the manufacturing sector than on total FDI. The message to developing countries' policymakers is twofold. First, efforts towards openness should be initiated or further increased in order to make their economies attractive to foreign investors. Second, improvements in other aspects of the investment climate are important complements to openness and result in additional and sensitive increases in FDI inflows.     

Public health infrastructure and growth: Ways to improve the inferior equilibrium under multiple equilibria

This paper develops an endogenous growth model in which public health infrastructure, specified as a stock, plays an important role in economic growth. A notable feature of the model is that it employs a non-separable utility function for consumption, leisure, and the level of public health. In addition, increasing the level of health infrastructure contributes to the production of goods through labor augmentation. With these settings, our model is found to have a unique equilibrium or multiple equilibria, depending on the magnitude of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution. For the case of multiple equilibria, we numerically study the ways to avoid the low-growth state in developing countries. From this, we identify two feasible policy implications. The results indicate that public health infrastructure has a vital role in the development policies of low-income countries. Lastly, we show that there are two possibilities in regard to the local dynamics of the model.