Capitalism, profits and innovation in the new techno-economic paradigm

Innovative profits (of the kind conceptualized by Schumpeter) are today being increasingly created through international corporate networks for technological development. Such profits through innovation are encouraged by newer more flexible organizational forms, and further encouraged (unlike in the conventional perspective on profits and on the incentive to innovate) by knowledge flows between firms. Our empirical evidence, based on US patent data, shows that multinational companies are currently more likely to develop abroad technologies which are less science-based, and less dependent upon tacit knowledge. However, within the science-based industries firms may generate abroad some technologies which are heavily dependent on tacit knowledge, but normally in fields that lie outside their own core technological competencies. We find some evidence of a convergence in corporate technological diversification across large firms, facilitated by the now common spread in the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) as an integrator of formerly separate technological systems. This has led smaller firms to diversify, but giant firms to consolidate activity around those technologies that have become most interrelated.     

Evolution of harvesting strategies: replicator and resource dynamics

Abstract. Economic theories of managing renewable resources, such as fisheries and forestry, traditionally assume that individual harvesters are perfectly rational and thus able to compute the harvesting strategy that maximizes their discounted profits. The current paper presents an alternative approach based on bounded rationality and evolutionary mechanisms. It is assumed that individual harvesters face a choice between two harvesting strategies. The evolution of the distribution of strategies in the population is modeled through a replicator dynamics equation. The latter captures the idea that strategies yielding above average profits are demanded more than strategies yielding below average profits, so that the first type ends up accounting for a larger part in the population. From a mathematical perspective, the combination of resource and evolutionary processes leads to complex dynamics. The paper presents the existence and stability conditions for each steady-state of the system and analyzes dynamic paths to the equilibrium. In addition, effects of changes in prices are analyzed. A main result of the paper is that under certain conditions both strategies can survive in the long-run. Correspondence to: J. Noailly     

技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化的影响——以成渝地区双城经济圈为例

技术演化是区域实现高质量发展的关键动力。基于1999-2019年成渝地区142个县（市区）、637个专利技术领域的面板数据，考察技术关联、技术转移对成渝地区技术演化的影响，并进一步讨论区域发展阶段和技术含量的异质性作用。研究发现，技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化均存在促进作用，同时，技术关联在先发地区和低技术含量领域的作用更显著，而技术转移在后发地区和高技术含量领域的作用更显著。进一步研究发现，技术关联、技术转移对区域技术演化存在“倒U”型影响，邻近地区技术演化对本地具有溢出效应。基于上述研究结论，建议成渝地区同时发挥技术关联与技术转移的作用，在发达区域技术关联强的领域加大要素投入，鼓励技术落后区域进行技术引进，加强区域协作，破除研发要素流动壁垒。     

新技术进步会阻碍传统技术创新吗——来自汽车产业的实证检验

在新旧技术竞争过程中，传统企业会适时调整研发策略，以应对新技术进步对传统技术造成的冲击。然而，新技术对传统技术的影响究竟表现为创新替代效应还是创新互补效应，至今依然没有得到确切结论。以汽车产业为研究对象，比较传统燃油汽车和电动汽车两种新旧技术的发展路径，并结合产业生命周期理论提出汽车产业的三阶段演化模型。进一步基于1995—2021年省级专利数据和面板向量自回归模型，从产品创新和工艺创新两个维度实证检验各阶段电动汽车技术进步对传统汽车企业创新的影响。结果表明，在电动汽车产业的范式导入期（1995—2008年），新技术通过产品创新和工艺创新两方面促进传统技术发展；在电动汽车产业的范式构建期（2009—2021年），新技术依然对传统技术有显著推动作用，但仅通过工艺创新促进传统技术发展。     

专利家族视角下技术演化路径依赖研究——以光刻技术为例

以专利家族为研究视角，阐述技术路径动态演化过程中的路径依赖。专利家族自引会对技术主路径造成干扰，通过对主路径进行调整，提出一种修正技术主路径的新思路。研究发现：光刻技术在“投影对准和曝光系统—浸没式投影物镜—浸没式光刻材料—光刻胶”4个阶段经历了“路径消解—路径产生与路径依赖—路径消解与突破”的动态演化过程。在此过程中，以荷兰阿斯麦、德国蔡司和日本东京电子为代表的专利家族发挥重要作用。其中，以阿斯麦为核心的利益联盟垄断核心技术，强化光刻技术发展的路径依赖作用，占据市场领先地位。研究结论有助于深化对路径依赖理论的认知，通过揭示光刻技术路径演化过程及企业演化格局，为后发国家突破技术路径依赖提供实践启示。     

Evolutionary economics and economic geography

This article attempts to explore how key notions from Evolutionary Economics, such as selection, path-dependency, chance and increasing returns, may be applied to two key topics in Economic Geography. The first issue is the problem of how to specify the (potential) impact of the spatial environment on new variety in terms of technological change. Evolutionary thinking may be useful to describe and explain: (1) the process of localized `collective' learning in a regional context, (2) the adjustment problems that regions may be confronted with in a world of increasing variation, and (3) the spatial formation of newly emerging industries as an evolutionary process, in which the spatial connotation of increasing returns (that is, agglomeration economies) may result in a spatial lock-in. The second issue is the problem of how new variety may affect the long-term evolution of the spatial system. We distinguish three approaches that, each in a different way, apply evolutionary notions to the nature of spatial evolution. This is strongly related to the issue whether mechanisms of chance and increasing returns, rather than selection and path-dependency, lay at the root of the spatial evolution of new technology.     

Growth and equilibrium indeterminacy: the role of capital mobility

Summary. The paper presents a human capital driven endogenous growth model which, in general, permits a multiplicity of equilibrium balanced growth paths. It is shown that allowing for perfect capital mobility across countries increases the range of parameter values for which the model permits equilibrium indeterminacy. As opposed to the closed capital markets case, simple restrictions on preferences are no longer sufficient to eliminate the indeterminacy. Intuitively, under perfect capital mobility agents are able to smooth consumption completely. This induces an economy with open capital markets to behave like a closed economy with linear preferences thereby increasing the possibility of equilibrium indeterminacy. Received: 18 November 1998; revised version: 10 August 1999     

Debt, growth and inflation in large European economies: a vector auto-regression analysis

This paper attempts to empirically test the hypothesis that whether debt matters in the EU. This has been performed by examining the potential adverse effects of debt in large European economies on investment, inflation and growth. Using the hybrid cointegration and vector autoregressive models, the findings, based on the period 1970–97, suggest that debt causes significant adverse effects on investment, but its impact on growth is not clear-cut. Moreover, debt appears to be inflationary in most cases in the long run, though produces no clear short run pattern on inflation.     

Do export and technological specialisation patterns co-evolve in terms of convergence or divergence? Evidence from 19 OECD countries, 1971–1991

Several researchers looking at the development of international export specialisation patterns have shown that there is a weak tendency for OECD countries to exhibit decreased levels of specialisation. This finding is in contrast to findings made by other authors, who found increasing technological specialisation. The first aim of this paper is to investigate whether these contradictory findings are due to a `real world' phenomenon, or whether the explanation is purely technical, by comparing the development of export specialisation to specialisation in terms of US patents, using the same methodology and level of aggregation. The second aim is to analyse the extent to which countries and sectors display stable specialisation patterns over time, also both in terms of exports and in terms of technology. The paper confirms that the OECD countries tend in general to become less specialised in terms of exports. The evidence is less conclusive with regard to technological specialisation, as the results are mixed in the sense that just about half of the countries tend to exhibit increased levels of specialisation, while the other half tend to exhibit lower levels of specialisation. In terms of country and sectoral stability of specialisation patterns, it can be concluded that both trade specialisation and technological specialisation patterns are path-dependent. In comparison, however, trade specialisation patterns are more stable than are technological specialisation patterns.     

基于韧性视角的区域硬科技创新组态分析

硬科技是推动我国经济转型升级的关键技术,建设富有韧性的硬科技创新体系已成为提升国家科技实力、应对新一轮科技革命的重要路径。基于韧性视角,构建驱动硬科技创新发展的整合性分析框架,运用定性比较分析方法对中国沿海城市和内陆城市进行组态比较分析。研究发现,沿海城市推动硬科技创新发展的驱动路径有3条,内陆有4条;两类区域驱动路径中,硬科技创新发展的核心驱动条件具有差异性,同时,多样性、进化性、流动性、缓冲性条件的替代关系也不同。研究结论对促进沿海和内陆城市的硬科技创新具有一定借鉴意义。     

Technology clustering based on evolutionary patterns: The case of information and communications technologies

Technology trend analysis anticipates the direction and rate of technology changes, and thus supports strategic decision-making for innovation. As technological convergence and diversification are regarded as emerging trends, it is important to compare the growth patterns of various technologies in a particular industry to help understand the industry characteristics and analyse the technology innovation process. However, despite the potential value of this approach, conventional approaches have focused on individual technologies and paid little attention to synthesising and comparing multiple technologies. We therefore propose a new approach for clustering technologies based on their growth patterns. After technologies with similar patterns are identified, the underlying factors that lead to the patterns can be analysed. For that purpose, we analysed patent data using a Hidden Markov model, followed by clustering analysis, and tested the validity of the proposed approach by applying it to the ICT industry. Our approach provides insights into the basic nature of technologies in an industry, and facilitates the analysis and forecasting of their evolution.     

技术创新网络多维邻近性演化研究

研究技术创新网络多维邻近性是否伴随创新网络生命周期不同发展阶段而呈现出不同演化特征，对创新网络内部伙伴选择、关系治理和创新绩效发展具有重要意义。基于IBM专利合作网络数据，运用Feature Selection方法，从地理邻近、社会邻近、技术邻近、组织邻近和制度邻近5个维度分析技术创新网络多维邻近性演化特征。结果表明：①生命周期视角下，在创新网络创生阶段，企业选择合作伙伴时主要考虑技术邻近性和组织邻近性，成长阶段主要考虑地理邻近性，成熟和衰退阶段主要考虑社会邻近性；②演化视角下，地理邻近性与技术邻近性曲线呈倒U型关系，地理邻近性在成长期达到最高点，技术邻近性在成熟期达到最高点；制度邻近性与组织邻近性呈U型关系，制度邻近性在成长期达到最低点，组织邻近性在成熟期达到最低点;社会邻近性则随着创新网络生命周期发展一直呈上升态势。     

Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation

 Previous research has shown that the distribution of profit outcomes from technological innovations is highly skew. This paper builds upon those detailed findings to ask: what stochastic processes can plausibly be inferred to have generated the observed distributions? After reviewing the evidence, this paper reports on several stochastic model simulations, including a pure Gibrat random walk with monthly changes approximating those observed for high-technology startup company stocks and a more richly specified model blending internal and external market uncertainties. The most highly specified simulations suggest that the set of profit potentials tapped by innovators is itself skew-distributed and that the number of entrants into innovation races is more likely to be independent of market size than stochastically dependent upon it.     

Knowledge of growth and the growth of knowledge

The central theme of this address is the complicated relationship between the growth of the economy and the growth of knowledge. This theme is explored with the help of a single concept “restless capitalism” which is used to capture the idea that capitalism in equilibrium is a contradiction in terms precisely because the growth of knowledge cannot be meaningfully formulated as the outcome of a constellation of equilibrating forces. This theme is explored through a discussion of growth accounting, the relationship between innovation, markets and institutions and, as an example, the development of innovation in the field of ophthalmology. We also discuss some pioneering contributions made by Simon Kuznets and Arthur Burns to the discussion of evolutionary growth. From this Schumpeterian perspective we see the economy as an ensemble not an aggregate entity and so see more clearly the importance of microdiversity in the relationship between growth of knowledge and growth of the economy.     

Modelling research and development: How do firms solve design problems?

One way of thinking about research and development is to recognise that firms are trying to solve particular design problems. We often build these design problems into our models, but are forced to oversimplify them in order to make the models solvable. The approach taken in this paper is to acknowledge that design problems are often insoluble using standard techniques and to model instead the process by which firms solve them. Two such processes are simulated in detail. The first, individual experimental search, is based on a problem-solving technique known as simulated annealing. The second, partial imitation, involves learning at a social level and is based on a problem-solving technique known as the genetic algorithm. Some economic implications of these processes are explored, including their application to stochastic learning curves, patent design and the importance of `technodiversity' in the introduction of new technology to developing countries.     

制造业虚拟化转型背景下双重创新网络与创新绩效演化

制造业虚拟化转型背景下,双重创新网络的作用有待探索。运用多主体建模仿真与实证相结合的方法,考察双重创新网络对区域制造集群创新网络及其绩效的影响。结果表明：相较于区域创新绩效“缓慢—加快—稳定”的演化过程,虚拟网络嵌入后区域创新绩效呈现“加快—稳定”的特征。同时,进一步考察技术动态性对此造成的冲击,发现在不同技术动态性环境下,虚拟网络均有助于改善区域产业集群创新绩效。最后,仿真结果显示,鉴于虚拟化程度不同,创新绩效涌现出不同的变化规律,在此基础上利用南京江宁开发区制造业相关数据进行探索,发现在高技术动态条件下虚拟化程度与企业创新绩效呈倒U型关系,而低技术动态条件下呈正相关,从而为制造企业如何在虚拟化转型过程中兼顾两种异质创新网络提供一些思路。     

中国城市新兴技术的双元创新路径与发生机制——以生物医药技术为例

以生物医药技术为例，利用专利数据，建立技术共现网络与创新合作网络，分析2000—2018年中国生物医药技术演化特征、双元创新格局及城市间创新联系，利用层次回归模型探究其双元创新发生机制及路径。结果表明，生物医药细分技术间的可达性逐渐提高，2013年以后技术体系化程度显著提高，技术融合呈现出群落特征；城市渐进式创新与突破式创新存在空间正向关联，但两者具有不同发生机制；城市在创新网络中的中心性地位对知识搜索深度和渐进式创新更重要，而其中介性地位对知识搜索宽度和突破式创新更重要；知识搜索深度更利于渐进式创新，而搜索宽度更利于突破式创新；关系强度在渐进式创新过程中起正向调节作用，在突破式创新过程中起负向调节作用；不同类型城市在网络位置、知识搜索、关系强度方面表现出不同演化规律，使城市在创新路径上产生分化。     

Democracy and capitalism: Are they compatible in the long-run?

Starting from a discussion of Schumpeter's analysis of the relationships of capitalism, socialism and democracy, it is shown that, in a complex society, democracy is only compatible with a decentralized market economy with safe property rights. But in time democracy shows a tendency to weaken the capitalist system by more and more regulations and an ever-increasing share of government (including the social security system) in GDP. This tendency is a consequence of political competition because of the development of interest groups and the presence of rationally uninformed voters. It leads to a weakening of efficiency, investment, innovation and thus to lower growth rates of GDP. But in time forces opposing this development arise. First, because of the negative consequences of growing government the welfare and regulatory state is bound to move into a crisis in the long run. Thus innovative politicians have a chance to win the support of a majority of voters for reform projects, who perceive finally the ever-increasing burden of higher taxes and regulations and realize that these burdens are not worth the benefits bestowed on them. In doing so, they may face, however, the competition of ideologies. Second, there are other states with lower taxes and less unnecessary regulations which show higher growth rates of GDP, and gain thus relative advantages in international political and military competition since they can command greater resources with the passage of time. To maintain their relative international power position, reforms are thus considered as necessary by rulers. This may be helped by pressure resulting from comparisons of the standards of living done by their citizens.     

Satiation in an evolutionary model of structural economic dynamics

This paper presents the problem of satiation of consumption and technology in relation to a model of evolutionary endogenous growth. The model represents an attempt to provide an evolutionary economic micro foundation to Pasinetti's scheme of the structural economic dynamics of an economy that is based on only labour and knowledge. The micro foundation is based on a set of rules that makes endogenous the demand coefficients, the labour coefficients, and the number of available sectors. Through process innovations firms increase their productivities with respect to individual goods, but a growth slowdown takes place unless the benefits from specialisation are exploited at still higher levels. Another cause for slowdown is related to an Engelian hierarchy of goods. As the standard of living grows, existing sectors and consumption goods satiate, so new sectors need to be provided by product innovations in a sufficient pace to keep up with the labour that is displaced from old sectors.     

A theory of classification and evolution of technologies within a Generalised Darwinism

This paper here proposes a theory of classification and evolution of technology based on taxonomic characteristic of interaction between technologies that is an under-studied field of research in economics of technical change and management of technology. The proposed classification of technologies, in a broad analogy with evolutionary ecology of parasites, within a theoretical framework of Generalised Darwinism, is: (1) parasitic technologies, (2) commensal technologies, (3) mutualistic technologies, (4) symbiotic technologies. This theory here suggests the property of mutual benefaction from interaction between different technologies and the theorem of not independence of any technology to explain and predict characteristics and evolutionary pathways of technologies over time. Overall, then, this study may be useful for bringing a new perspective in economics of innovation to categorise and analyse the interaction between technologies that can be a ground work for development of more sophisticated concepts to explain and predict the evolution of technology and generalise aspects of technological change in human society.