The Impact of the Fuel and Energy Complex on the Economic Development of Russia

Using input-output analysis, the article considers possible ways to use the potential of the fuel and energy complex to implement structural and technological modernization of the Russian economy. Positive effects from changing the operational mode of the fuel and energy complex towards a solvent consumer of competitive domestic products in the context of import substitution processes, as well as a source of relatively cheap energy sources for domestic producers, are estimated.     

Strategic Development Outlook for the Energy Complex of Russia

The article discusses the long-term development of the energy complex and its role in the Russian economy in the context of the restructuring of world energy markets and considering the draft Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation for the period through to 2035. Using the SCANER modelling and information complex, representative scenarios for the evolution of world energy markets have been developed, as well as relevant scenarios for the development of Russia’s economy and energy, including the dynamics of domestic consumption of major fuels and energy in view of energy conservation, as well as effective volumes and directions of basic fuel exports. Based on this, the dynamics of extraction and processing of basic fuels, the use of renewable energy resources, and electricity production by various types of power plants are optimized, and the necessary capital investments and returns on the dynamics of domestic prices for fuel and energy are determined. Changes in the main macroeconomic indicators of the contribution of the energy complex to the development of the Russian economy, corresponding to these scenarios, indicate a possible relatively rapid decrease in its dependence on energy exports.     

Evaluation of strategic threats in predictive studies of power industry

The procedure of step-by-step quantitative assessment of strategic threats is described, which is an important part of strategic studies of fuel and energy complex development and includes the identification of an unstable zone in the area of prediction and the calculation of investment risks of particular projects and scenarios. A system of indices (indicators) for the complex evaluation of potential capacity commissioning deficiency and unacceptable energy price growth is proposed.     

The modern problems of forecasting regional energy consumption (using the example of the Republic of Komi)

The article considers the methodical and information problems of forecasting regional energy consumption, suggests the methods and complex model for forecasting the levels of energy, heat, and fuel consumption in interrelation with the development of both separate types of industries and types of activity and an energy source. The influence is shown of the probabilities of realization of the production prediction and the limits on energy supply on the formation of the prospective levels of electrical and heat energy.     

Projects of Development of Interaction of FEC and HCS: Problems of Forecasting and Management

The paper has presented the problems of forecasting and managing projects on the development of fuel and energy complex and housing and communal services, the identification of priority areas, and the planning of innovative technologies in the current conflict of interests in their economic relations.     

On the divergence between fuel and service prices: The importance of technological change and diffusion in an American frontier economy

This paper assembles heating fuel prices for the U.S. state of Vermont, from the colonial era to the present, in order to test whether energy fuel prices and energy service prices have diverged over this time period. Prior authors have reported evidence of a significant difference between long run energy fuel prices and energy service prices. However, this is the first analysis to pose this question beginning in the context of colonial America. In accord with earlier work focused in the U.K. the paper reports a significant divergence in fuel and service prices. In this setting real heating fuel prices increased over the 220 year time period by a factor of between 15 and 20. In contrast, heating service prices increased by a factor of two. Expressed in labor units, heating service prices have fallen in Vermont by 25%, while fuel prices were essentially flat. Finally, over this two century time period in Vermont and the U.K., the rate of change in service prices expressed in labor units is remarkably similar: − 1.1% and − 0.9%, per annum, respectively.     

论我国公共预算听证的完善途径

预算事实上是平衡多方主体利益的一系列复杂的过程。作为预算资金的主要提供者——纳税人,对预算制定享有知情权、监督权,但在公共预算实际运行中,还存在着诸多问题。需要进一步探索解决,从而更好的发挥这一民主制度的效用。     

Analysis of the organizational characteristics related to tight budget goals*

Abstract. This study extends our knowledge of the role of budgets in complex organizations. Using survey methods with a sample of Canadian firms, the analysis examines the relationship between tight budget goals and firm performance. Additionally, the effects of business strategy and internal structural characteristics are considered. Statistical tests suggest that tight budget goals are positively related to firm performance, and that business strategy and internal organizational conditions are associated with tightness in budget goals. Résumé. L'auteur ajoute à notre connaissance du rôle des budgets dans les organisations complexes. À l'aide de méthodes d'analyse appliquées à un échantillon d'entreprises canadiennes, il étudie la relation entre les objectifs budgétaires rigoureux et la performance de l'entreprise. Il se penche en outre sur les conséquences de la stratégie commerciale et des caractéristiques structurales internes de l'entreprise. Les tests statistiques donnent à penser que les objectifs budgétaires rigoureux affichent une relation positive avec la performance de l'entreprise, et que la stratégie commerciale et la structure organisationnelle interne sont liées à la rigueur des objectifs budgétaires.     

SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

The second half of 2008 is proving to be a time of unprecedented global volatility, and the sound performance of the Indonesian economy over the first half will be difficult to maintain. With growth for the year projected to remain around 6%, Indonesia is relatively well placed to face the challenges of the unfolding global financial crisis, but the risks to the outlook are increasing. The crisis has begun to impact directly, with trading on the Indonesian stock market suspended on 8 October after an alarming one-day fall of 10% in share prices. Sustained pressure on the currency since mid-August has also seen Bank Indonesia running down its sizable foreign exchange reserves in attempting to support the rupiah. The authorities are taking steps to relieve liquidity pressures in the financial system, but will also need to address medium-term issues of stability, especially in relation to inflation; interest rate increases have so far done little to contain prices. Although exports have remained surprisingly strong, rapid import growth has resulted in a small current account deficit. Growth of exports is likely to decelerate as demand in developed economies slows, putting further pressure on the balance of payments and the currency.

The 2009 budget reflects the government's positive outlook, but the underlying assumptions about growth, inflation and interest rates seem rather optimistic. Tax revenue has been increasing strongly, allowing the government to allocate significant new spending to education, in particular; however the budget remains hostage to global oil prices, with energy subsidies still very large despite the unpopular recent increases in domestic fuel prices. Other issues likely to affect voting in the 2009 elections include scheduled electricity blackouts in Jakarta in response to demand continuing to outstrip supply; the government's apparent indifference to the fate of the victims of the Sidoarjo mud disaster; and its failure to make much impact on the level of poverty.

Despite asking major donors for additional loans for budget support, the government has unveiled a new strategy for managing development partnerships. This will encourage smaller donors to operate through multi-donor arrangements and larger donors to use government systems for more of their programs—a signal that the government intends to shape its relationships with donors despite the global crisis.     

From Linear Fuel Switching to Multiple Cooking Strategies: A Critique and Alternative to the Energy Ladder Model

Promoting sustainable development requires evaluating the technical and policy options that will facilitate the adoption and use of energy efficient and less polluting cooking stoves and practices. The transition from traditional to modern fuels and devices has been explained by the “energy ladder” model that suggests that with increasing affluence, a progression is expected from traditional biomass fuels to more advanced and less polluting fuels. In this paper we evaluate the energy ladder model utilizing data from a four-year (1992–96) case study of a village in Mexico and from a large-scale survey from four states of Mexico. We show that an alternate “multiple fuel” model of stove and fuel management based on the observed pattern of household accumulation of energy options, rather than the simple progression depicted in the traditional energy ladder scenario, more accurately depicts cooking fuel use patterns in rural households. The “multiple fuel” model integrates four factors demonstrated to be essential in household decision making under conditions of resource scarcity or uncertainty: (a) economics of fuel and stove type and access conditions to fuels, (b) technical characteristics of cookstoves and cooking practices; (c) cultural preferences; and (d) health impacts. This model also allows better estimates of the expected fuelwood demand and indoor air pollution in rural households.     

Russia’s fuel and energy complex: Development prospects for the period to 2030

The article presents a long-term forecast for the Russian fuel and energy complex (FEC) for the period to 2030. Projections were made for two scenarios of Russia’s socioeconomic development, which were developed at the IEF in 2005–2006. FEC forecasts were built for three macroregions of Russia: the European part, the Urals and West Siberia, and East Siberia and the Far East. Key outcomes of the scenario forecasts correspond to the base case, which provides background concepts of the long-term development of the FEC. The regional aspect is analyzed in depth, which made it possible to build prognostic energy balances for three macroregions that take account of the economics of production, transportation, distribution, and utilization of energy resources.     

日本车用氢能的产业发展及支持政策

氢能作为最具发展潜力的清洁二次能源,由于其具有低碳零污染和能源高效等特点,开发和利用氢能正成为全球能源科技革命的重要方向。从应用终端来看,车用氢能是氢能主要发展领域。在日本,车用氢能全产业链包括从燃料电池研发到燃料电池汽车(FCV)生产等一系列核心价值链,并以下游终端应用为推力。日本车用氢能产业发展以国家战略为政策引领,面对氢燃料电池汽车成本高,加氢站等基础设施不足等问题,政府运用经济刺激和部门协同等多项政策举措加以应对,同时搭建"政府+大学+企业"的合作开发创新平台,加强技术与产业的协作,利用市场带动产业发展,以FCV作为下游终端发展重点,多层次协同推进车用氢能产业的发展。     

预算管理一体化改革视角下中央行政事业单位财务管理优化研究——以S省局为例

预算管理一体化改革是国家财政依托大数据和“互联网+”等信息手段，进军全面数字化的第一步，是数字化财政改革的一次历史性飞跃。但目前中央行政事业单位财务管理仍存在预核算侧重点不匹配、“两套账”、调错账风险及对账难度增加等问题，因此，预算管理一体化改革势在必行。文章以S省局为例，从预算管理一体化政策实践、财务管理存在的问题、预算管理一体化改革对单位财务管理的影响进行深入分析，最后提出财务管理优化方法，促进预算管理与财务管理相互融合，最终推进预算管理一体化改革顺利完成，提高中央行政事业单位财务管理水平。     

Substitutions among energy imputs in U.S. manufacturing

Summary and Conclusion With cross-section data on the purchases of four energy inputs by 11 U.S. manufacturing industries, Allen partial cross elasticities of input substitution and own price elasticities of demand were computed. The sample set represents 85 percent of total manufacturing energy demand in 1962. The substitution elasticities between fuel oil and natural gas, fuel oil and purchased electricity, and between natural gas and electricity, were statistically significant for about half of the 11 two-digit SIC industries studied. These elasticities ranged between 12.9 and 1.7 with half of them less than 4.0.Importantly, the elasticity of substitution between coal and the above three energy inputs was significantly different from zero in only three manufacturing industries (comprising some 35 percent of total manufacturing energy demand). Thus it would appear that only three U.S. manufacturing sectors will contribute towards the substitution of domestic for international energy sources. Indirect substitution between energy sources, with the consequent implications for the balance of payments, will primarily have to come from the substitution of electricity (from coal-fired plants) for natural gas (from Canada) and fuel oil (indirectly from the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America).Similar substitution results were found when all 11 industries were aggregated together or divided into large and small energy demand groups. As well, there appear to be no significant differences in overall substitution response between the two categories of large and small energy users. Supporting the substitution results, we found that the own price elasticity of demand for coal to be about –.5 and not different from zero while the price elasticities for natural gas, fuel oil, and purchased electricity were between –.7 and –2.67 (and statistically different from zero).As a general conclsuion, the substitution of domestic coal for other energy inputs will primarily have to come indirectly through greater use of coal to produce electricity which is purchased by the manufacturing sector. The scope for direct substitution of coal for other energy inputs in U.S. manufacturing is limited to only three sectors and cannot be expected to have an exceptionally large impact on mitigating the inflation and blanace of payments implications of the recent increases in the price of imported energy inputs.This work was undertaken at the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Discussions with George Green, A. Ray Grimes, Jr., Michael Mohr, John R. Moroney, Gorti Narasimham, and Benjamin Wolkowitz are acknowledged. These individuals, as well as the B.E.A. and the author's present employer, remain independent from the views expressed in this study.     

Survey of recent developments

The Indonesian economy is maintaining its momentum at a time of ongoing uncertainty in the global economy and slowing economic growth in China. Strong domestic demand saw output grow by 6.4% over the year to June, despite a steep fall in net exports. Inflation is safely within Bank Indonesia's target range, although food prices have increased relatively quickly. The current account deficit widened to 3.1% of GDP in the June quarter due to continued growth in imports and falling prices for commodity exports. The trade environment has deteriorated in 2012, and new divestment and domestic processing requirements are likely to further reduce investor interest in the mining sector.

President Yudhoyono has recently made several speeches calling for a ‘green growth agenda’. Some progress has been seen in slowing deforestation and in establishing mechanisms for facilitating payments to reduce emissions from deforestation, but loss of natural forests remains rapid. Carbon dioxide emissions from energy are growing quickly, stoked by increasing use of coal. The proposed 2013 budget continues to be heavily burdened by energy subsidies, which encourage over-consumption of fossil fuels. In most respects, therefore, the business-asusual trajectory of the Indonesian economy is unlikely to be particularly green.

A barrier to subsidy reform is its perceived unpopularity, including the threat of public protests such as those witnessed in March. To gauge current opinion we carried out a survey of Jakarta-based university students. The results indicated majority support for the removal of fuel subsidies, but some respondents said they would protest against fuel subsidy reductions, highlighting the politically sensitive nature of the issue.

Indonesia has witnessed booms in the coal and palm oil sectors in recent years, becoming the world's largest exporter of both commodities. We review the benefits from these two booms and the tensions between the development of these sectors and environmental goals. We also review the tourism sector, which remains relatively under-developed outside Bali. Tourism is a potential source of long-run growth that may be aligned with a green economy. The development of the sector would be aided by infrastructure improvements and a renewed focus on the conservation of natural assets.     

400 kW氢燃料电池供电保障发电车结构与功能设计

为减少保电工作中传统柴油发电车的污染，设计含多种发储系统的氢燃料电池发电车系统结构，利用飞轮储能作为市电和氢燃料电池的过渡电源，采用电动底盘车电池作为氢燃料电池的备用启动电源，提高整车的可靠性与环保性；提出多个氢燃料电池模块均流调整策略及发电车多源协同运行控制策略，实现了发电车的功率提升与不间断输出。研究成果支撑研制了国内外首台400 kW氢燃料电池发电车，测试与应用结果表明了设计方法的正确性。     

完善我国财政转移支付制度的思考——基于政府间行为分析

近年来，我国转移支付的规模呈逐年扩大之势，转移支付中的问题也层出不穷。本文通过分析我国财政转移支付的现状，认为产生各种问题的原因主要在于政府间事权与财权划分不清、预算的模糊和非刚性以及转移支付管理的弱化。其本质原因在于政府问权力的划分及由此衍生出的利益之争。因此，要想有效发挥我国转移支付制度的设计目标，就必须从清晰界定政府间的事权与财权，细化预算、保证预算的规范透明并对预算实施有效监督，以及制定规范转移支付的法律法规等方面去完善。     

Survey of Recent Developments

Amid global economic uncertainty and tumbling world oil prices, Indonesia's economy faces pressure on its external balance and a continued growth slowdown. The government of President Joko Widodo (widely known as Jokowi) has set an agenda of reform, including simpler, faster investment licensing, historic cuts to fuel subsidies to generate fiscal savings, and increased spending on infrastructure. On the political side, Jokowi has had to deal with several political issues coming not only from parties in opposition but also from parties supporting his government, including during the formation of the new cabinet. We examine the consequences so far of the government's policy initiatives and of the policymaking process. While some initiatives have been implemented with success, some seem to have been launched without enough preparation, consultation, or empirical evidence, and many have been poorly communicated. Although inflation accelerated after the November fuel-price rise, efforts have been made to contain inflationary expectations and to mitigate the effects on poverty through social-assistance programs. The government took steps to cushion the impending impacts of higher fuel prices on vulnerable households by giving cash handouts of Rp 200,000 per month to 15.5 million disadvantaged families who receive the lowest level of welfare, and by promoting publicly funded education and health care. The partial removal of gasoline subsidies and the introduction of a fixed-subsidy policy for diesel in the revised 2015 budget reduce uncertainty about the fiscal position, although increases in government spending in infrastructure development were announced at the same time. The revised budget for 2015 increases spending on infrastructure development by 63% from the 2014 budget, mostly on projects to improve connectivity on land and at sea—such as the development of toll roads, railways, and ports—and to increase the performance of the agricultural sector. However, the recent drop in international oil prices forced the government to increase its target for tax revenue by 30% on last year's target, raising concerns about the effect of falling oil prices on the economy. Trade and investment policy reform is important in unlocking Indonesia's growth potential and improving the country's current external balance. Jokowi's administration, however, has been sending mixed signals about its position towards more open policies. The country has yet to recommence several trade negotiations that were postponed in 2014 and is still struggling to meet its commitments under the ASEAN Economic Community. Although improvement in investment procedures and licensing is currently underway, Indonesia needs to adopt a more positive attitude if it is to attract more investment.     

Are China's energy markets cointegrated?

The paper investigates energy price co-movement over the period 01/1999–12/2005 for China as a whole, and over sub-periods and for seven regions, using panel unit root and panel cointegration tests developed by Pedroni (1999, 2004). The results suggest that not all energy sources are spatially homogenous in prices and the processes of energy price cointegration are different over sub-periods; over groups of fuels; and over regions. Coal and electricity prices have co-moved since 2003 while gasoline and diesel prices have co-moved since 1997. The results show that there are clearly variations in the emergence of energy price co-movement over regions, implying that regional fuel markets have emerged in China. Important lessons that can be learnt from the results are that an energy market has, to some extent, already emerged in China and, as a result, energy prices are substantially less distorted than before. If correct, these findings have significant global implications both in terms of future emission reductions, emission trading and trade negotiations where China should be treated as a ‘market driven economy’.     

Absorption capacity of Russia’s forests and carbon dioxide emissions of fuel and energy systems

Carbon dioxide emissions from fuel combustion in the fuel and energy systems (FES) and production industries are estimated on the basis of an analysis of the long-term forecast of the development of the former. The carbon sequestration by forest and nonforest biomes is calculated. Based on the global balance of carbon fluxes, a long-term national carbon balance is drawn up. As follows from this balance, the carbon sequestration during the 21st century is even larger than emissions in FES development scenarios, which do not include any special restrictions on CO₂ emissions. Thus, a considerable portion of foreign emissions is absorbed. This fact should be taken into account when developing national strategies for socioeconomic development.